Article: A Plea For The Red Sox To Sign Juan Soto

[moonslav59]

MLBTR is saying the Soto deal may reach $700M (beating Ohtani's $461M) and go to 14 years (one more than Harper's record 13 year deal.) Nit sure about referrals or opt-outs.

$50M x 14 seems beyond an "overpay," and if we could get Burnes at $245M/7, Fried at $210M/7 and Scott at $80M/5, we'd be saving $70M. However, the AAV would be $76M v $50M.

[Deja Doh]

If we are really considering paying Soto $400 to $700 million, we could get three very players that would help this team and have less risk  long term.  

[Jasonbay44]

9 minutes ago, Deja Doh said:

If we are really considering paying Soto $400 to $700 million, we could get three very players that would help this team and have less risk  long term.  

Which 3 free agents do you have in mind that’s realistic and as consistent as Soto? He’s one of only guys to ever hit free agency who’s this good and this young. It’s also a bonus if it takes him away from the Yankees. 

[Duran Is The Man]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

MLBTR is saying the Soto deal may reach $700M (beating Ohtani's $461M) and go to 14 years (one more than Harper's record 13 year deal.) Nit sure about referrals or opt-outs.

$50M x 14 seems beyond an "overpay," and if we could get Burnes at $245M/7, Fried at $210M/7 and Scott at $80M/5, we'd be saving $70M. However, the AAV would be $76M v $50M.

i'd love to have Soto, but his makes far more sense. this team needs pitching more than it needs hitting. or Soto and Fried at $80M AAV.

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i'd love to have Soto, but his makes far more sense. this team needs pitching more than it needs hitting. or Soto and Fried at $80M AAV.

Unless we sign Scott or trade for a top closer, I don't see that much top pen help on the FA market. It's a lot cheaper to sign Scott than a second top SP, so it makes sense to sign Fried and Scott over Burnes and Fried, in terms of budget cost. 

In theory, we could stay under the second tax line with this:

$30M x 7 Burnes

$27M x 7 Fried

$17M x 5 Scott

$6M x 1 Carson Kelly

(This would also push Crawford to the pen for another improvement there.)

I just can't see us getting both pitching prizes, but with the money apparently available for Soto, it makes me wonder.

Probably, pie-in-the sky might be Fried, Adames, Hoffman, C Kelly.

[vjcsmoke]

700m/15 years for Soto? Sounds about right. Boras is a hard negotiator. Soto was never going to be a cheap prize to land. Hopefully the ownership has OK'd this contract and he will be donning Red Sox uniform by the end of Winter Meetings.

[Randy Red Sox]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Unless we sign Scott or trade for a top closer, I don't see that much top pen help on the FA market. It's a lot cheaper to sign Scott than a second top SP, so it makes sense to sign Fried and Scott over Burnes and Fried, in terms of budget cost. 

In theory, we could stay under the second tax line with this:

$30M x 7 Burnes

$27M x 7 Fried

$17M x 5 Scott

$6M x 1 Carson Kelly

(This would also push Crawford to the pen for another improvement there.)

I just can't see us getting both pitching prizes, but with the money apparently available for Soto, it makes me wonder.

Probably, pie-in-the sky might be Fried, Adames, Hoffman, C Kelly.

Burnes AND Fried??  ha ha. think Pivetta and Chapman

[Hugh2]

On 11/9/2024 at 11:22 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

And what are we hearing about a trade for Crochet?  We're hearing you'd want to sign him to an extension ASAP.  The cheap part goes out the window pretty quick.

I’m generally with you, but he’s also years younger than those free agents.

Sox have been saying for years their preference to handing out bigger contracts to younger guys.  And literally said such when they extended Devers

[vjcsmoke]

I don't know how he arrived at these numbers, but according to this tweet we are now the favorites for landing Soto. Dude has 60k+ followers, so he's not exactly a nobody on Twitter. Hopefully this is true.

[Bellhorn04]

Get it done Papi!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

32 minutes ago, vjcsmoke said:

I don't know how he arrived at these numbers, but according to this tweet we are now the favorites for landing Soto. Dude has 60k+ followers, so he's not exactly a nobody on Twitter. Hopefully this is true.

I think the percent signs are the wrong symbols. It supposed to mean most 63-year olds that post on Red Sox forums favor Boston to sign Soto.

The 9-year old for the Mets is the son of a NY coach. Toronto is just being babies about this.

[Bellhorn04]

Reportedly the Jays latest offer works out to 1 billion Canadian dollars.

I wish that was purely a joke.

🙃

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

36 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Reportedly the Jays latest offer works out to 1 billion Canadian dollars.

I wish that was purely a joke.

🙃

Tariffic.

[notin]

11 hours ago, Jasonbay44 said:

Which 3 free agents do you have in mind that’s realistic and as consistent as Soto? He’s one of only guys to ever hit free agency who’s this good and this young. It’s also a bonus if it takes him away from the Yankees. 

At some point, having Soto will make no sense if the Sox can’t surround him with talent.  

Fourteen years and nearly three-quarters of a billion dollars is a lot for one player.  Rebuild the staff, and hope Anthony is the next MLB superstar…

 

[notin]

54 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Reportedly the Jays latest offer works out to 1 billion Canadian dollars.

I wish that was purely a joke.

🙃

In what will be a proper yet seemingly bizarre use of the word “only”,  an offer of $1 billion Canadian works out to “only” $710,000,000 USD

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, notin said:

At some point, having Soto will make no sense if the Sox can’t surround him with talent.  

Fourteen years and nearly three-quarters of a billion dollars is a lot for one player.  Rebuild the staff, and hope Anthony is the next MLB superstar…

 

OTOH if the Sox are really going balls to the wall here, it suggests a pretty sudden and large shift in organizational philosophy.  Which is what Dan Secatore is hinting at in the article I linked in the Zack Scott thread.

Maybe JH finally said "Well, this ain't workin', guys.  Time to change course from Tampa North to Dodgerland East!"

Might be some wishful thinking on my part, too...

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Burnes AND Fried??  ha ha. think Pivetta and Chapman

I did say "I can't see us getting both," but I do think, if we lose out on Soto, the fans will settle for nothing less than one of the two. My guess is Fried and I'm thinking maybe they go with Adames or Bregman.

The major issue I have with signing a 3Bman is this: I love the idea of moving Devers to share 1B/DH with Casas, and adding one of Bregman or Adames does the trick, but with Yoshida entrenched at DH, trading Casas would likely happen. To me, losing Casas negates the gains made by improving 3B defense. I really like Tristan's bat, too much.

This is a big reason I have spent so much time exploring ways to dump some of Yoshida's contract, even if it means taking on a bigger contract in return, but for a position of need (P or 3B) so we can keep Casas.

I don't see this as a solution:

C: Wong & ____

1B/DH: Devers/Casas

2B: Campbell/Mayer (DHam/Grissom)

SS: Story/Mayer

3B: Bregman/Adames/Arenado

LF: Yoshida/Refsnyder

CF: Duran

RF: Anthony/Campbell

(Trade Abreu and or Rafaela for pitching)

[Bellhorn04]

No one is signing Burnes AND Fried.  

[Jasonbay44]

23 minutes ago, notin said:

At some point, having Soto will make no sense if the Sox can’t surround him with talent.  

Fourteen years and nearly three-quarters of a billion dollars is a lot for one player.  Rebuild the staff, and hope Anthony is the next MLB superstar…

 

I mean I get that, but acquiring a guy like Soto without giving up prospects and maintaining an elite farm system with many young MLB players is a great start. It opens the door to a lot of trade possibilities and having Soto a core piece is about as good as you can hope for. 

[notin]

28 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

OTOH if the Sox are really going balls to the wall here, it suggests a pretty sudden and large shift in organizational philosophy.  Which is what Dan Secatore is hinting at in the article I linked in the Zack Scott thread.

Maybe JH finally said "Well, this ain't workin', guys.  Time to change course from Tampa North to Dodgerland East!"

Might be some wishful thinking on my part, too...

I think more like the North Eastros.  Spend, but have a supplement pipeline…

[notin]

12 minutes ago, Jasonbay44 said:

I mean I get that, but acquiring a guy like Soto without giving up prospects and maintaining an elite farm system with many young MLB players is a great start. It opens the door to a lot of trade possibilities and having Soto a core piece is about as good as you can hope for. 

Yes, but how many of those young stars can you hold on to for more than 3 years?

 

I want Soto, too, but the bidding has reached the point where I’m ok with someone else signing him.

Even the Yankees.  They’ve shown already he doesn’t guarantee a World Series, and I have full faith that the one person who can keep a team with Soto aand Judge in check is Aaron Boone…

 

[notin]

2 hours ago, vjcsmoke said:

I don't know how he arrived at these numbers, but according to this tweet we are now the favorites for landing Soto. Dude has 60k+ followers, so he's not exactly a nobody on Twitter. Hopefully this is true.

Savage Sports is a nobody in a circle where even the biggest names (like Bar Stool Sports) have all but non-existent access to inside information.  Ignore them and their completely unsupported “data”…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

25 minutes ago, notin said:

Yes, but how many of those young stars can you hold on to for more than 3 years?

 

I want Soto, too, but the bidding has reached the point where I’m ok with someone else signing him.

Even the Yankees.  They’ve shown already he doesn’t guarantee a World Series, and I have full faith that the one person who can keep a team with Soto aand Judge in check is Aaron Boone…

 

Soto was the difference in the Bronx last year for a flawed team that made it to the World Series.

The Yankees know they can go sign good free agent corner infielders and another outfielder and even more pitchers, but they won't be as good without Soto.

As for pitching, that's one department New York never skimps on spending for -- and it's the main reason the Yanks are always contenders.

[Jasonbay44]

38 minutes ago, notin said:

Yes, but how many of those young stars can you hold on to for more than 3 years?

 

I want Soto, too, but the bidding has reached the point where I’m ok with someone else signing him.

Even the Yankees.  They’ve shown already he doesn’t guarantee a World Series, and I have full faith that the one person who can keep a team with Soto aand Judge in check is Aaron Boone…

 

I think with the financially and prospect flexibility the team has now, combined with Juan Sotos skill set and age, this is a rare time where giving a long term contract has a very good chance of being worth to.

 

I know Soto doesn’t “guarantee” a World Series but having him on your side and not on the Yankees definitely gives you a better chance, especially with how good he’s been in the playoffs in his limited time. He’s already played in two World Series and won 1 as a main contributor. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Jasonbay44 said:

I mean I get that, but acquiring a guy like Soto without giving up prospects and maintaining an elite farm system with many young MLB players is a great start. It opens the door to a lot of trade possibilities and having Soto a core piece is about as good as you can hope for. 

Exactly, and although I am as high on Anthony as anybody in the world, and I'm not "for" trading him, he could be the best trading chip in MLB, right now for a top SP'er, including guys like Skubal, Skenes, Kirby and Gilbert. (not by himself, but any team would listen, if you opened your offer with Anthony as the headline- maybe Duran, as well.)

Both of these, Duranless or Anthonyless OFs still look awesome:

LF Soto

CF Duran

RF Abreu/Rafaela platoon (Campbell?)

or

LF Soto

CF Anthony

RF Abreu/Rafaela platoon (Campbell?)

Trading for a younger pitcher is safer than signing Burnes or Fried to a 6 or 7 years deal.

 

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

...As for pitching, that's one department New York never skimps on spending for -- and it's the main reason the Yanks are always contenders.

Excellent point, and this goes to the core position I have held for over 5 decades about the Sox and what made us winners vs losers.

For 3 decades, we seemed to always be 1-2 quality pitchers away from winning a ring. 1972, 1975, 1978 and 1986 were key examples, IMO.

It wasn't until JH and Theo came along, that this philosophy came into being. Dan D brought us Pedro, but it wasn't until we added Schilling that the first ring came to us. Later, when Pedro was gone, we added Beckett to ensure a ring. Although Lackey was not an ace, I don't think we win in 2013 without him. Sale & Price in 2018 were the difference makers. It's hard as hell for the Sox to win with just one top pitcher. Other teams did it. We did have several years where we had 2 quality SP'ers and did not win a ring, but IMO, we never won a ring with just one.

1972: Siebert 3.80 & Marty Pattin 3.24 (Curtis 3.73 & McGlothen 3.41) was awesome, but that was the year the strike allowed us to miss the pennant by 1/2 game due to the unbalanced schedule the league allowed.

1975: Tiant 4.02, Bill Le 3.95 and Wise 3.95 was a nice 3. We went 7 games.

1986: Clemens was a god at 2.48. Hurst 2.99 and Boyd 3.78 were damn good, too. We went 7 games.

2003: Pedro at 2.22 was godlike, too, but no other SP'er was under 4.09 (Wake)

Several seasons between 2005 and 2019 had teams with 2 or more quality SP'ers and we got no ring. It is no guarantee, just as '72, '75, '86 were close calls, but all of our 4 ring seasons, we saw 2 high quality SP'er and either a really good closer or a 3rd quality SP'er, too.

The Yanks have known this for many decades.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Excellent point, and this goes to the core position I have held for over 5 decades about the Sox and what made us winners vs losers.

For 3 decades, we seemed to always be 1-2 quality pitchers away from winning a ring. 1972, 1975, 1978 and 1986 were key examples, IMO.

It wasn't until JH and Theo came along, that this philosophy came into being. Dan D brought us Pedro, but it wasn't until we added Schilling that the first ring came to us. Later, when Pedro was gone, we added Beckett to ensure a ring. Although Lackey was not an ace, I don't think we win in 2013 without him. Sale & Price in 2018 were the difference makers. It's hard as hell for the Sox to win with just one top pitcher. Other teams did it. We did have several years where we had 2 quality SP'ers and did not win a ring, but IMO, we never won a ring with just one.

1972: Siebert 3.80 & Marty Pattin 3.24 (Curtis 3.73 & McGlothen 3.41) was awesome, but that was the year the strike allowed us to miss the pennant by 1/2 game due to the unbalanced schedule the league allowed.

1975: Tiant 4.02, Bill Le 3.95 and Wise 3.95 was a nice 3. We went 7 games.

1986: Clemens was a god at 2.48. Hurst 2.99 and Boyd 3.78 were damn good, too. We went 7 games.

2003: Pedro at 2.22 was godlike, too, but no other SP'er was under 4.09 (Wake)

Several seasons between 2005 and 2019 had teams with 2 or more quality SP'ers and we got no ring. It is no guarantee, just as '72, '75, '86 were close calls, but all of our 4 ring seasons, we saw 2 high quality SP'er and either a really good closer or a 3rd quality SP'er, too.

The Yanks have known this for many decades.

Good points, and memories. Don't forget in '72 who became the true ace: Looie, who led the AL in ERA.

But when it came to pitching, Steinbrenner was just lethal. In '74 NY's team ERA was third, so he signed Cy Young Catfish Hunter. Their team ERA was third again in '75, so he added four more starters to the rotation.

In '76 the Yanks had the top ERA and won the pennant, but lost the World Series to Cincy. So George signed Reds' ace, Don Gullet.

In '77 New York won it all, but got beat in a game by LA's Tommy John. So George signed him, too. 

The Yankees' ace reliever Sparky Lyle won the Cy that year, but then another All-Star, Goose Gossage, became a free agent that winter. So George signed him, too... because he could.

[Jasonbay44]

55 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Exactly, and although I am as high on Anthony as anybody in the world, and I'm not "for" trading him, he could be the best trading chip in MLB, right now for a top SP'er, including guys like Skubal, Skenes, Kirby and Gilbert. (not by himself, but any team would listen, if you opened your offer with Anthony as the headline- maybe Duran, as well.)

Both of these, Duranless or Anthonyless OFs still look awesome:

LF Soto

CF Duran

RF Abreu/Rafaela platoon (Campbell?)

or

LF Soto

CF Anthony

RF Abreu/Rafaela platoon (Campbell?)

Trading for a younger pitcher is safer than signing Burnes or Fried to a 6 or 7 years deal.

 

That is my thought process as well. We have so much OF talent if we sign Soto that it gives us a lot of options in the trade market with Abreu, Rafaela, Anthony, or even Duran (I really want to keep him.)

 

Eventually something has to give and some of the prospects have to be traded, there isn’t enough room for them all. Even if they all reach their ceilings I’m not sure we ever find a Juan Soto in our system. He’s very special 

[moonslav59]

38 minutes ago, Jasonbay44 said:

That is my thought process as well. We have so much OF talent if we sign Soto that it gives us a lot of options in the trade market with Abreu, Rafaela, Anthony, or even Duran (I really want to keep him.)

 

Eventually something has to give and some of the prospects have to be traded, there isn’t enough room for them all. Even if they all reach their ceilings I’m not sure we ever find a Juan Soto in our system. He’s very special 

One key will be to identify which player to trade, and we better get that right. Trading at peak value is key, as well.

Our OF currently as Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, Anthony, Refsnyder, Yoshida, Campbell and eventually JH Garcia, Montgomery and maybe Cespedes.

Or middle IF has Story, Mayer, Campbell, DHam, Grissom, Romy, Sogard and eventually Arias, Romero and maybe Meidroth or Cespedes.

Our corner IF has Devers, Casas and Meidroth.

Our catching has Wong and Teel (late '24/early '25)

I may be in a distinct minority, but I'd be fine starting the year with a DHam-Grissom platoon at 2B. Keeping Mayer over Campbell, since he can play SS well makes sense, but I absolutely love Campbell (and Anthony.) Campbell may also play CF or RF.

Keeping Teel seems like a no-brainer, since Wong sucks on D. If we have to trade one from Anthony, Campbell and Mayer, I'd go with Mayer and hope Story can stay healthy enough to bridge us to Arias or Romero. In the OF, I'd love to keep Duran and Anthony, and since I'm keeping Campbell, we should be set enough to trade Abreu and or Rafaela. If we sign Soto, that changes everything in the OF. We could go all times best: LF Soto, CF Duran, RF Anthony, or trade Duran or Anthony in a package for an ace, and go with an Abreu-Rafaela platoon in CF-RF.

With no Soto, I'd feel comfortable trading Mayer, Abreu and some mid level prospects for the best pitcher we can get.

[vjcsmoke]

Rumor has it Mets have put forth a 730m dollar offer to Soto.

Considering the difference in tax rates, for the Sox to match they would have to offer 715m.

Will Red Sox up their bid, or does the dream stop here? Or is this rumored Mets offer bogus with a lot of deferred money to make it sound better than it is?

Article: Yankees' Juan Soto Has Massive $730 Million Offer From NL Contender, Report Says