Article: A Plea For The Red Sox To Sign Juan Soto

[Bellhorn04]

31 minutes ago, notin said:

There’s times when they’re good for fans.

Price had an opt out after year three when he would have been 34 (with 4 years $123mill left).  It looked like one he might have taken had he just stayed healthy for 3 years, especially since Zack Greinke signed a mega deal with Arizona around that time, and he was 4 years older than Price.

 

But Price just couldn’t stay healthy for 3 years.  Or even two years…

Damn pitchers!

[moonslav59]

34 minutes ago, notin said:

There’s times when they’re good for fans.

Price had an opt out after year three when he would have been 34 (with 4 years $123mill left).  It looked like one he might have taken had he just stayed healthy for 3 years, especially since Zack Greinke signed a mega deal with Arizona around that time, and he was 4 years older than Price.

 

But Price just couldn’t stay healthy for 3 years.  Or even two years…

 

34 minutes ago, notin said:

There’s times when they’re good for fans.

Price had an opt out after year three when he would have been 34 (with 4 years $123mill left).  It looked like one he might have taken had he just stayed healthy for 3 years, especially since Zack Greinke signed a mega deal with Arizona around that time, and he was 4 years older than Price.

 

But Price just couldn’t stay healthy for 3 years.  Or even two years…

Plus, his numbers diminished, pretty quickly and significantly. I know injury was part of the reason, but there was no reason to expect a turn-around.

2012-2015 (4 years before BOS)

2.90 ERA (133 ERA+) 2.90 FIP and 5K/BB

4 years w BOS (98 GS)

3.84 (118 ERA+) 3.74 ERA+ and 3.9 K/BB

 

We needed an ace, badly. I thought Price was a must do deal. He helped us get a ring in '18, and that may have made the deal "worth it," but his first 4 years of the 7 year deal fell significantly short of what I had hoped for.

[mvp 78]

He had a magical self repairing arm that mystified doctors. He should have bet on himself IMO. 

[Bellhorn04]

If we didn't win the Series in '18 with Price contributing, I too would deem it a disaster.

But we did.

[Bellhorn04]

Maddie is probably going to be a little surprised next time she checks the status of her article/thread. 😁 

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Maddie is probably going to be a little surprised next time she checks the status of her article/thread. 😁 

Maddie also garnered lots of comments with her "who to root for in the WS" and "checking in on DD 5 years later" articles. By our TalkSoxCast metrics, she's been killing it. 

We'll need to task her with the official "is clutch real" article once things simmer down later this winter. 

[notin]

5 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

If we didn't win the Series in '18 with Price contributing, I too would deem it a disaster.

But we did.

I believe Price’s opt out was after year three.  He could have taken his ring and hit the market prior to the 2019 season and just in time to free up $123mill to add on to Betts’ offer.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

18 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Maddie also garnered lots of comments with her "who to root for in the WS" and "checking in on DD 5 years later" articles. By our TalkSoxCast metrics, she's been killing it. 

We'll need to task her with the official "is clutch real" article once things simmer down later this winter. 

It all depends if readers think good writing is repeatable, or maybe she just delivers good articles in the pivotal crunch time of offseasons... when reactions speak louder than inactions (and a pitcher is worth a thousand words). It's not a knack, she's just good.

[Hugh2]

20 hours ago, notin said:

There’s times when they’re good for fans.

Price had an opt out after year three when he would have been 34 (with 4 years $123mill left).  It looked like one he might have taken had he just stayed healthy for 3 years, especially since Zack Greinke signed a mega deal with Arizona around that time, and he was 4 years older than Price.

 

But Price just couldn’t stay healthy for 3 years.  Or even two years…

So hypothetically good.

I'm sure there's potential for fans to look back in hindsight and not be too upset a guy opts out, but on the players side they're 100% player friendly. 

Unless he goes the Bryce Harper route, a Soto contract is almost certain to have an opt out in it, at least one if not multiple in the year 4-6 range. 

[Bellhorn04]

40 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

So hypothetically good.

I'm sure there's potential for fans to look back in hindsight and not be too upset a guy opts out, but on the players side they're 100% player friendly. 

Unless he goes the Bryce Harper route, a Soto contract is almost certain to have an opt out in it, at least one if not multiple in the year 4-6 range. 

Yeah, we'll have to wait and see (says Cap'n Obvious), but it'll be interesting to see if the winning contract for Soto has much in the way of bells and whistles.

Cole's contract had just the one opt-out after 5 years I believe.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We should know by now not to anticipate a top Boras' client signing early -- or even timely, before Spring Training. GM/CBOs committed to upgrade with multiple free agents and trades simply cannot wait for one big Juan Soto decision to steer them into Plan B, C or Z... because the ones who don't wait will swoop in and nab the prizes on their lists.

It's like American Pickers. They always need a small ice-breaker first to get the transactions in motion. Pay retail for the small, pitted Coke sign with paint chips before making an offer on the mint DeSoto in the garage.

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

We should know by now not to anticipate a top Boras' client signing early -- or even timely, before Spring Training. GM/CBOs committed to upgrade with multiple free agents and trades simply cannot wait for one big Juan Soto decision to steer them into Plan B, C or Z... because the ones who don't wait will swoop in and nab the prizes on their lists.

It's like American Pickers. They always need a small ice-breaker first to get the transactions in motion. Pay retail for the small, pitted Coke sign with paint chips before making an offer on the mint DeSoto in the garage.

Boras and his clients seemed to get burnt to a crisp by his waiting tactics last offseason.

Of course none of them were Juan Soto.

It looks to me like Soto and his team are getting down to business very methodically here, and I think he'll sign by Christmas.  I think they understand that everyone is waiting on them and that there are certain obligations to the game itself.

[Hugh2]

17 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, we'll have to wait and see (says Cap'n Obvious), but it'll be interesting to see if the winning contract for Soto has much in the way of bells and whistles.

Cole's contract had just the one opt-out after 5 years I believe.

to me 1, 2 it doesn't matter.  I think it's just very very likely that there's AN opt out in there. 

[Hugh2]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Boras and his clients seemed to get burnt to a crisp by his waiting tactics last offseason.

Of course none of them were Juan Soto.

It looks to me like Soto and his team are getting down to business very methodically here, and I think he'll sign by Christmas.  I think they understand that everyone is waiting on them and that there are certain obligations to the game itself.

It certainly feels like they want to make a decision relatively quickly, and not draw this thing out.  I wouldn't be surprised if we know by early December, but I think before christmas might be a lot safer of a bet. 

Of course the safest bet is before opening day. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

to me 1, 2 it doesn't matter.  I think it's just very very likely that there's AN opt out in there. 

The time frame of the opt-out(s) is pretty important here, no?

Guaranteeing a guy 13 years and 600 million and giving him an opt-out after 1-3 years?  I don't think any team would agree to that...well, except maybe the Jays because they really have no other good cards to play.   

[Hugh2]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The time frame of the opt-out(s) is pretty important here, no?

Guaranteeing a guy 13 years and 600 million and giving him an opt-out after 1-3 years?  I don't think any team would agree to that...well, except maybe the Jays because they really have no other good cards to play.   

Yeah, Jays are pretty desperate.  I think I could live with 5, would love it if he goes the Harper route unlikely as it may be.  

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If Soto signs with Boston, don't expect him to bat after Devers in the line-up.

Soto batting second in the Yankees' order just helped Judge have his best year. Juan didn't protect the MVP batting in that spot, but what he did do all year was wear pitchers down so that their arms were hanging by the time they faced Judge -- who got a lot of cookies to crush... and Cookie Monster seldom missed.

The guy who will protect Raffy -- and be a perfect contrast following him in the batting order -- is Teoscar Hernandez. Three years at a Qualifying Offer salary might get him to Boston -- at 1/10th of a Soto-projected contract... which leaves plenty to sign Max Fried.

Teoscar in Beantown for his age 32, 33 and 34 seasons might also provide solid veteran leadership for a up-and-coming club full of regulars in their 20s.

 

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

If Soto signs with Boston, don't expect him to bat after Devers in the line-up.

Soto batting second in the Yankees' order just helped Judge have his best year. Juan didn't protect the MVP batting in that spot, but what he did do all year was wear pitchers down so that their arms were hanging by the time they faced Judge -- who got a lot of cookies to crush... and Cookie Monster seldom missed.

The guy who will protect Raffy -- and be a perfect contrast following him in the batting order -- is Teoscar Hernandez. Three years at a Qualifying Offer salary might get him to Boston -- at 1/10th of a Soto-projected contract... which leaves plenty to sign Max Fried.

Teoscar in Beantown for his age 32, 33 and 34 seasons might also provide solid veteran leadership for a up-and-coming club full of regulars in their 20s.

 

If we are signing Soto, I don't think Teoscar Hernandez is on the table. 

I was actually the biggest advocate for trading for Teoscar at the 2023 deadline, and then last year on a 1 year rebuild value deal.  

He's done that, and now I think he's going to be overpaid, and if we sign Soto we already have a crowded outfield.  But I agree that Soto bats 2nd in front of Raffy here. 

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

If we are signing Soto, I don't think Teoscar Hernandez is on the table. 

I was actually the biggest advocate for trading for Teoscar at the 2023 deadline, and then last year on a 1 year rebuild value deal.  

He's done that, and now I think he's going to be overpaid, and if we sign Soto we already have a crowded outfield.  But I agree that Soto bats 2nd in front of Raffy here. 

Yeah, it's either or, not both. If they didn't have Masa, they could try to figure out Teoscar at DH but I don't see it. 

[Hugh2]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Yeah, it's either or, not both. If they didn't have Masa, they could try to figure out Teoscar at DH but I don't see it. 

If they didn't have Masa, I would have just explored a 2 year deal with O'Neill to DH. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Yeah, it's either or, not both. If they didn't have Masa, they could try to figure out Teoscar at DH but I don't see it. 

Of course... Teoscar is a much more reasonable -- and likely -- alternative to Soto.

Breslow has said from the beginning of the offseason the Red Sox need starters, relievers and righty bats. He never said Juan Soto was a need. He might be generational, but Hernandez is generatable (generator that supplies power when the dugout grid loses all Tyler O'Neills).

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

If they didn't have Masa, I would have just explored a 2 year deal with O'Neill to DH. 

No, Teoscar can hit RHP, O'Neill can't. 

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Of course... Teoscar is a much more reasonable -- and likely -- alternative to Soto.

Breslow has said from the beginning of the offseason the Red Sox need starters, relievers and righty bats. He never said Juan Soto was a need. He might be generational, but Hernandez is generatable (generator that supplies power when the dugout grid loses all Tyler O'Neills).

In the absence of Juan Soto, I'd rather just run a Duran/Rafaela/Anthony outfield OR a (Refsnyder/Abreu)/Duran/Anthony outfield and go heavy heavy on the $$$ for pitching. 

[Hugh2]

38 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

No, Teoscar can hit RHP, O'Neill can't. 

What is Teoscar like .027 better OPS liftime vs. RHP.  I wouldn't say one can and one can't.  Besides I need O'Neill to DH, I don't wanna pay Teoscar to play the field or DH when he will cost a lot more. 

It's all mute anyways, because Yoshida is here and I'm hoping for another move to happen

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

44 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

In the absence of Juan Soto, I'd rather just run a Duran/Rafaela/Anthony outfield OR a (Refsnyder/Abreu)/Duran/Anthony outfield and go heavy heavy on the $$$ for pitching. 

Brez said he has to find a way to balance the batting order, and that has to mean more than just give the second base job to Grissom or Kristian Campbell. 

Even if they get Soto, there's no way the Sox don't also add a Renfroe-Duvall-O'Neill-Gomes-Napoli righty power bat. 

Best case scenario: Anthony and Campbell win jobs by May and by summer are the 21st century Lynn and Rice. How's this for a healthy batting order in the postseason -

Duran, Campbell, Devers, Teoscar, Casas, Anthony, Story, Teel, Rafaela...

 

[drewski6]

Just now, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Brez said he has to find a way to balance the batting order, and that has to mean more than just give the second base job to Grissom or Kristian Campbell. 

Even if they get Soto, there's no way the Sox don't also add a Renfroe-Duvall-O'Neill-Gomes-Napoli righty power bat. 

Best case scenario: Anthony and Campbell win jobs by May and by summer are the 21st century Lynn and Rice. How's this for a healthy batting order in the postseason -

Duran, Campbell, Devers, Teoscar, Casas, Anthony, Story, Teel, Rafaela...

 

Absolutely, it seems many here are Soto or just get pitchers, and I just dont think its going to work out that way (and I dont think it should either).

If they miss on Soto, theyll go hard after Teoscar, and if they miss on him, they'll prob engage Oneill.

I strongly feel a righty will be added.  They might also add a righty infielder, but Im less sure.

And we prob also sign a catcher.

They will of course bring in pitchers as well, either via trade or free agency.  But Im not as bullish on the offense and defense as some are here.  I also believe that good bats are more projectable and less variable than pitchers. Pitchers get hurt more, and go to crap more.  Crap pitchers can also just figure it out and shed the "crap" label.

I expect them to add 1-2 starters , 1-2 relievers, and 2-3 position players.

[Hugh2]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Brez said he has to find a way to balance the batting order, and that has to mean more than just give the second base job to Grissom or Kristian Campbell. 

Even if they get Soto, there's no way the Sox don't also add a Renfroe-Duvall-O'Neill-Gomes-Napoli righty power bat. 

Best case scenario: Anthony and Campbell win jobs by May and by summer are the 21st century Lynn and Rice. How's this for a healthy batting order in the postseason -

Duran, Campbell, Devers, Teoscar, Casas, Anthony, Story, Teel, Rafaela...

 

That lineup would look so much better subtracting Teoscar and adding Soto

[Randy Red Sox]

MLB FA is a COMPLETE JOKE !! IT IS THE SAME THING EVERY YEAR !!  Every other major sports FA period moves much faster. There has not been a single big FA signing in 23 days following the WS and likely won't be one for at least 10-14 more days.  Likely nothing to happen till Soto signs his 12-14 year deal. I am going to laugh my a.$.$ off if Bora$$ can't get him a deal till right before the season starts just like a number of his clients last year went through.

 Like Don Henley said in the Long Road Out Of Eden " behold the bitten apple ,the power of the tools. But all the knowledge in the world is of no use to fools"

[Deja Doh]

If Soto's age to be true (26, from the Dominican Republic), that 0.421 OBP is highly coveted.  He gets on base.  But he's not Shohei Ohtani (he's not going to bring in more fans).  If he is a good teammate, lets go get him.

[notin]

Soto has more walks than strikeouts for his career.  Since he joined the league, only three hitters with qualified amount of PA have more walks than strikeouts.  Soto, Bregman, and Arraez.  And only Soto has hit 200HRs while doing so…