Rumor: Red Sox Linked To Yet Another Elite Starter, This Time It's Left-Handed Max Fried

[Hugh2]

20 minutes ago, notin said:

Just finished his age 25 season, just like Soto.  He was actually a couple weeks younger…

Yeah, so theres one.  Still it's rare.

Harper did have a 28.7 Fwar at that time, that's pretty darn close to what Soto did. 

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

How old was Bryce Harper????

Good one. I think he was 26 1/2 and had a .900 OPS w WSH in 927 games and almost 4000 PAs. 7 seasons and 184 HRs.

Per 650 PAs: .279  30  86

Soto: 7 years. 936 games and just over 4,000 PAs. (201 HRs)

Per 650: .285  33  94

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

50 minutes ago, notin said:

This is true.  But Boston desperately needs a superstar to get past Betts…

"Giving away Bagwell while a prospect was bad enough, but the Red Sox had a HOFer about to enter his prime... and couldn't keep him."

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, notin said:

And you only brought extrapolated data into because the regular data doesn’t put Seager within 10% of Soto.

Do you consider Seager to be the same type of generational talent as Soto?

Seager’s had a great career, and will very likely get votes for Cooperstown.  But Soto is on a historic path.  Since 1950, he ranks 9th in fWAR through age 25.  Ahead of Betts, Bonds, Harper, Mays, Ripken and lots of other guys who have already posed for busts…

Seager's not at the same level as Soto, I agree.  I just thought you were dissing him a bit too strongly, that's all.

[Larry Cook]

4 hours ago, notin said:

This is true.  But Boston desperately needs a superstar to get past Betts…

Or an above average right handed bat to protect pitching around devers 

[notin]

58 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Or an above average right handed bat to protect pitching around devers 

As discussed before, most of the above average right-handed bats do not hit lefties as well as Soto does…

[notin]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Seager's not at the same level as Soto, I agree.  I just thought you were dissing him a bit too strongly, that's all.

I can admit to bring harsh on him.  But Seager racing free agency at 27 really isn’t the potential opportunity on the same level as Soto reaching out at 26.

 

Of course they will have something in common when all is said and done.  Seager didn’t sign with Boston either.
 

But until pen hits paper, I’m allowed to dream on this one…

[notin]

5 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Yeah, so theres one.  Still it's rare.

Harper did have a 28.7 Fwar at that time, that's pretty darn close to what Soto did. 

Maybe if Harper had those two extra weeks…

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

How old was Bryce Harper????

Good call....

 

They both were about the same age, had played 7 seasons, had about 930 games and 4,000 PAs, when signed.

Soto: .953 OPS (160 OPS+) Per 650: .285  32  98

Harper:  .900 OPS (149 OPS+) Per 650: .279 30  87

 

[Hugh2]

12 hours ago, notin said:

Maybe if Harper had those two extra weeks…

maybe if he had those two extra weeks.....what?

[notin]

28 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

maybe if he had those two extra weeks.....what?

<sigh>
 

I mentioned earlier Harper and Soto reached free agency at the same age, in fact Harper was about two weeks younger…

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

<sigh>
 

I mentioned earlier Harper and Soto reached free agency at the same age, in fact Harper was about two weeks younger…

Ok, I'm not surprised there's one, there's allowed to be more than 1 and still call it very rare.  This isn't highlander.  

The only point I've been trying to hammer out here is how rare a free agent like Juan Soto is.  It would be crazy to not make an honest run at him in my opinion

[mvp 78]

19 hours ago, notin said:

So Semien was more useful during his peak years of ages 27-33 than Soto was during his ages 19-25? I guess that makes them equal…

What else do we have to go on? We can try to project Soto's "PRIME YEARS" but we know things don't always line up that way.

[moonslav59]

Gotta love Soto's consistently high OPS+

142 at ages 19 and 20.

217 at age 21 was off-the-charts.

175 and 147 at 22 & 23

Then 155 with the Padres at 24 and 178 with NYY at 25.

I can't stop from comparing him to Manny, and when you look at Manny's full 14 seasons, from ages 23 to 36, you see he had 2 seasons in the mid 180's as his highest, ever. He led the league, just ones at 174 at age 27. His age 26 to 36 went like this: 146, 174, 186, (BOS>>>)162, 184, 160, 162, 153, 165, 126, 166 (BOS+LAD) At ages 37 & 38, in just 751 PAs total, he still put up a 147 OPS+!

If Soto can match the 13 seasons Manny had from age 26 to 38, signing him is a no-brainer:

1.015 OPS (159 OPS+)

.315 BA

41 HRs per 162

135 RBI per 162

350 TB per 162

Soto's last 5 seasons:

.959 OPS, but a 168 OPS+, which is better than Manny's 13 year stretch.

35 HRs and 100 RBI per 162 falls short of Manny, as does his 299 TB/162.

Manny at ages 21-25: .940 OPS (140 OPS+) 32 HRs and 109 RBI per 162 w 311 TB.

It's hard to know if Soto can age like Manny, and there doesn't seem to be as many antics or drama moments to his career, but to me, he looks like a once in a generation kinds free agent.

We should have kept Betts, but signing Soto would go a long way to helping us get over that huge blunder.

 

[Larry Cook]

Is Toronto our main competition for fried ????

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Is Toronto our main competition for fried ????

The O's are in on him as well and Burnes just left. Hard to really say as it's still early in the offseason. I don't know if he signs before Christmas. 

[Larry Cook]

With snell going to the dodgers, it looks like us and Toronto fighting for fried. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

With snell going to the dodgers, it looks like us and Toronto fighting for fried. 

Or the Dodgers...

[Hitch]

6 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

With snell going to the dodgers, it looks like us and Toronto fighting for fried. 

I don't see many top players looking to go to the Jays unless they blow someone out of the water. 

 

They're in a tough spot right now - poor farm and big questions over their line up for the next few seasons.

[moonslav59]

I think the Sox young core may attract a lot of FAs to Boston. 

It's been a long time being able to say that.

The rebuild was too long. The last place finishes, too painful. 

I told myself, I was not going to let hope turn into expectation, but it's creeping into my soul.

I'm a fool.

[drewski6]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think the Sox young core may attract a lot of FAs to Boston. 

It's been a long time being able to say that.

The rebuild was too long. The last place finishes, too painful. 

I told myself, I was not going to let hope turn into expectation, but it's creeping into my soul.

I'm a fool.

They care about their friends more than they care about your prospects.  Its a brotherhood and prospects arent in until they are.

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

They care about their friends more than they care about your prospects.  Its a brotherhood and prospects arent in until they are.

I meant the core already in the bigs.

Casas, Abreu, Rafaela, Bello, Fitts, Slaten

Duran, Devers, DHan, Wong, Whitlock, Houck, Crawford

[Larry Cook]

I think with the free agents, it takes one signing to put us in the spotlight! 
I think fried is that signing that makes us attractive to other free agents. 
 

 

[vjcsmoke]

On 11/8/2024 at 7:31 PM, Matthew Lenz said:

The Red Sox have been linked to yet another free agent starting pitcher. Per Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the Red Sox have shown interest in former Atlanta Braves starter Max Fried.

The left-hander will be entering his age 31 season after eight seasons with the Braves where he posted a 3.07 ERA / 3.29 FIP and 15.3% K-BB rate across 151 career starts.

Fried is an extreme ground ball pitcher with an incredibly deep pitch mix. He features four plus pitches including a mid-90s four seam fastball, a curveball, a sinker, and a change up. He also has an effective sweeper and cutter.

In their annual top 50 free agents predictions, MLBTR suggests that Fried could get a six year pact worth $156 million. Would you like to see the Red Sox nab this lefty off the market?

 

View full rumor

 

I believe a ground ball pitcher would fare better in Fenway. Anything that gets in the air is liable to go off the wall for a double or if it's a line drive could end up a home run.

I've also heard on air talks with Big Papi mention that Max Fried was one of his favorite pitcher targets. Not sure if the Red Sox share the same opinion but I wouldn't be surprised if they are interested.

If SOTO joins the mix the Red Sox could field a very good offense and all the pitchers need to do is keep it close and let our bats do the rest.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, vjcsmoke said:

I believe a ground ball pitcher would fare better in Fenway. Anything that gets in the air is liable to go off the wall for a double or if it's a line drive could end up a home run.

I've also heard on air talks with Big Papi mention that Max Fried was one of his favorite pitcher targets. Not sure if the Red Sox share the same opinion but I wouldn't be surprised if they are interested.

If SOTO joins the mix the Red Sox could field a very good offense and all the pitchers need to do is keep it close and let our bats do the rest.

I like this train of thought.

2023-2024 GB% leaders (200+ IP)

60 Logan Webb

59 Fried

57 C Sanchez, F Valdez

55 Houck

54 Bello

53 Stroman

51 H Brown

50 Suarez, Bradish, Elder, Glasnow, Nate

[Larry Cook]

This signing will tell me if management is truly serious about being competitive next season. 

[mvp 78]

On 11/27/2024 at 5:37 PM, moonslav59 said:

I meant the core already in the bigs.

Casas, Abreu, Rafaela, Bello, Fitts, Slaten

Duran, Devers, DHan, Wong, Whitlock, Houck, Crawford

Fitts, Slaten, Rafaela aren't core guys... 

[Bellhorn04]

40 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Fitts, Slaten, Rafaela aren't core guys... 

What's a core guy anyway? Rafaela played more than Abreu and has a long-term contract.  If Rafaela isn't core, how is Abreu core?  Just because we think he's actually better?

[Larry Cook]

I really hope we keep rafeala in center field and he cuts down on the strike outs next season . He is an amazing talent 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

What's a core guy anyway? Rafaela played more than Abreu and has a long-term contract.  If Rafaela isn't core, how is Abreu core?  Just because we think he's actually better?

To me, a core guy is someone you are going to build your team around and you don't want leaving the organization.

Definitely Core:

Devers

Possibly Core:

Houck

Duran

Future Core:

Anthony

Campbell

Mayer

Teel