Rumor: Red Sox Linked To Yet Another Elite Starter, This Time It's Left-Handed Max Fried

[Matthew Lenz]

The Red Sox have been linked to yet another free agent starting pitcher. Per Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the Red Sox have shown interest in former Atlanta Braves starter Max Fried.

The left-hander will be entering his age 31 season after eight seasons with the Braves where he posted a 3.07 ERA / 3.29 FIP and 15.3% K-BB rate across 151 career starts.

Fried is an extreme ground ball pitcher with an incredibly deep pitch mix. He features four plus pitches including a mid-90s four seam fastball, a curveball, a sinker, and a change up. He also has an effective sweeper and cutter.

In their annual top 50 free agents predictions, MLBTR suggests that Fried could get a six year pact worth $156 million. Would you like to see the Red Sox nab this lefty off the market?

View full rumor

[Larry Cook]

This guy needs to be a huge priority signing. 

[moonslav59]

I'll believe it when I see it, but getting and ace would put us into the playoff projection category. Add a couple solid RP'ers and we'd be a top 6 or 8 contender, maybe better, depending on what the other top 6-8 teams do, this winter.

[Duran Is The Man]

like every other decent free agent, he'll sign with the Dodgers for a zillion dollars.

[notin]

MLBTR has been notoriously light on their years and dollars predictions lately.

I wouldn’t be surprised of Fried got something closer to 7 yrs $203mill ($29mill AAV)…

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, notin said:

MLBTR has been notoriously light on their years and dollars predictions lately.

Except with the Boras Four, where they were way heavy.  Check out the prediction for Bellinger at #2.  I thought this one was absurd when I first saw it.

Then you had Snell, Monty and Chapman at #4, 6 and 7.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/2023-24-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions.html

[Larry Cook]

5 hours ago, notin said:

MLBTR has been notoriously light on their years and dollars predictions lately.

I wouldn’t be surprised of Fried got something closer to 7 yrs $203mill ($29mill AAV)…

Let’s hope Bres-slow gets the deal done!!!!

[moonslav59]

I'd rather get Fried than Snell. 

He's slightly younger, too.

Burnes is probably the top FA pitcher prize.

[mvp 78]

On 11/9/2024 at 8:56 PM, moonslav59 said:

I'd rather get Fried than Snell. 

He's slightly younger, too.

Burnes is probably the top FA pitcher prize.

I have zero interest in Snell.

Fried has injury concerns, but I'd be happy if they signed him.

[Hugh2]

21 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I have zero interest in Snell.

Fried has injury concerns, but I'd be happy if they signed him.

Does he really have injury concerns? He got injured before but it's not like he chronically gets injured and has missed mulitple seasons. 

Pitchers get injured, I don't think the risk of injury to Fried is any larger than most FA pitchers.  If anything, I'd say the guy who never got injured is due. 

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Does he really have injury concerns? He got injured before but it's not like he chronically gets injured and has missed mulitple seasons. 

Pitchers get injured, I don't think the risk of injury to Fried is any larger than most FA pitchers.  If anything, I'd say the guy who never got injured is due. 

Fried already had TJS once. He began having elbow, nerve and forearm issues in '23 (IL stints, missed half the season) and '24 again (one 15 day IL "forearm neuritis"). At the time of all the IL stints, all the talk was his previous TJS and him trying to rehab to avoid a second one. 

[Hugh2]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Fried already had TJS once. He began having elbow, nerve and forearm issues in '23 (IL stints, missed half the season) and '24 again (one 15 day IL "forearm neuritis"). At the time of all the IL stints, all the talk was his previous TJS and him trying to rehab to avoid a second one. 

You make it sound like he's missed a chronic amount of time, he pitched 174.1 innings this year and was skipped two times in July.  Probably just being cautious after coming back from TJ, which is almost assumed every pitcher will have now a days. 

If anything, I'm encouraged he had it and came back strong.  He's pitched at least 165 2/3 innings every year since 2019 save his TJ year. 

Guys get injured, I don't think that makes them injury prone.  Guys who get injured over and over again are injury Prone.....that's not Fried. 

[moonslav59]

It's hard to know who is injury prone or not. The one good thing about Gio was supposed to be his durability and dependability.

POOOOF!

I think Fried is more on eth safe side than injury expectation side, and that seems about the best you can do. Well, a young pitcher might be safer, but that would involve a trade. I'm not sure there is a younger FA pitcher out there, as good and proven as Fried .

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

You make it sound like he's missed a chronic amount of time, he pitched 174.1 innings this year and was skipped two times in July.  Probably just being cautious after coming back from TJ, which is almost assumed every pitcher will have now a days. 

If anything, I'm encouraged he had it and came back strong.  He's pitched at least 165 2/3 innings every year since 2019 save his TJ year. 

Guys get injured, I don't think that makes them injury prone.  Guys who get injured over and over again are injury Prone.....that's not Fried. 

He last had TJ 10 years ago. If he's still missing time because of a forearm strain, I'm worried that the second surgery is around the corner. Is that crazy of me? If he has the second surgery, he's basically all done. 

[Hugh2]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He last had TJ 10 years ago. If he's still missing time because of a forearm strain, I'm worried that the second surgery is around the corner. Is that crazy of me? If he has the second surgery, he's basically all done. 

So he goes about 8 years inbetween TJ? ok sign him to 6 years.  If there's damage to that tendon the MRI should show it.  He finished the regular season just fine and on a high note.  I'd roll the dice with him 1,000X before Burnes whos underlying metrics have gone down consistently the last several years or Crochet who who has never pitched more than 146 and has yet to prove he has the arm to start year in and year out. 

 

Max Fried is probably the Sox best bet at getting a true ace.....unless of course you believe Blake Snell is due for another Cy-Young year. 

[Hugh2]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He last had TJ 10 years ago. If he's still missing time because of a forearm strain, I'm worried that the second surgery is around the corner. Is that crazy of me? If he has the second surgery, he's basically all done. 

add.  Tell that to nasty Nate

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

add.  Tell that to nasty Nate

Nate's contract isn't the 7/180 or whatever some people have thrown around here. 

I'm just being honest about the risk involved. I don't think people are aware. We have enough dead contracts to worry about and an owner who is gun shy right now. 

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

So he goes about 8 years inbetween TJ? ok sign him to 6 years.  If there's damage to that tendon the MRI should show it.  He finished the regular season just fine and on a high note.  I'd roll the dice with him 1,000X before Burnes whos underlying metrics have gone down consistently the last several years or Crochet who who has never pitched more than 146 and has yet to prove he has the arm to start year in and year out. 

 

Max Fried is probably the Sox best bet at getting a true ace.....unless of course you believe Blake Snell is due for another Cy-Young year. 

I think it's a close call between Burnes and Fried. I think Fried gets less money and years, so he seems like the better bet, but Burnes may be a better injury risk.

On decline???

fWAR last 4 years:

Burnes 7.5>4.6>3.4>3.7 (I think maybe the 7.5 was an outlier, and we should not punish Burnes for being so great that one year, 4 years back.) xFIP: 2.30> 2.85> 3.80> 3.55 and ERA- 58>73>78>74 shows remarkable consistency the last 3 years. 32-33 GS'd the last 3 years

Fried: 3.7>4.9>1.9>3.4 (maybe the 4.9 was an outlier and these numbers seem more up & down. xFIP: 3.45>3.09>3.10>3.33 seem more consistent and certainly better the last 2 years than Burnes. ERA- 71>61>58>78 looks very similar to Burnes.

2023-2024 combined:

7.8 Pablo Lopez (trade fodder)

7.2 Burnes

6.0 Wacha & Kikuchi

5.7 L Castillo (might be trade fodder)

5.4 Ober & Ryan (trade rumors)

5.2 Fried

5.1 Houck & Nate

5.0 Flaherty

4.9 Monty (trade)

4.9 Martinez (QO lost pick)

ERA-

62 Snell

72 Fried

75 Martinez

76 Burnes

78 Wacha

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

Sign Burnes and have him stop throwing the horrible sinker. 

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I think it's a close call between Burnes and Fried. I think Fried gets less money and years, so he seems like the better bet, but Burnes may be a better injury risk.

On decline???

fWAR last 4 years:

Burnes 7.5>4.6>3.4>3.7 (I think maybe the 7.5 was an outlier, and we should not punish Burnes for being so great that one year, 4 years back.) xFIP: 2.30> 2.85> 3.80> 3.55 and ERA- 58>73>78>74 shows remarkable consistency the last 3 years. 32-33 GS'd the last 3 years

Fried: 3.7>4.9>1.9>3.4 (maybe the 4.9 was an outlier and these numbers seem more up & down. xFIP: 3.45>3.09>3.10>3.33 seem more consistent and certainly better the last 2 years than Burnes. ERA- 71>61>58>78 looks very similar to Burnes.

2023-2024 combined:

7.8 Pablo Lopez (trade fodder)

7.2 Burnes

6.0 Wacha & Kikuchi

5.7 L Castillo (might be trade fodder)

5.4 Ober & Ryan (trade rumors)

5.2 Fried

5.1 Houck & Nate

5.0 Flaherty

4.9 Monty (trade)

4.9 Martinez (QO lost pick)

ERA-

62 Snell

72 Fried

75 Martinez

76 Burnes

78 Wacha

 

 

 

I was looking at more of his statcast data, but actually some areas where he declined a little bit he actually ticked back up again in 2024.  His FB velo was as fast as ever. 

 

Ok, I'm back on the Burnes wagon.  Burnes or Fried. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Fried sounds like the perfect guy to add depth to Boston's rotation... of rehabbing IL pitchers. Just to be on the safe side, the Sox should wait until he has that second surgery, then pay him to rest, recuperate and come back as good as a new name hanging in a clubhouse locker.

When he suits up, said Sam Kennedy next summer -- referring to two summers from now -- he'll be better than any trade deadline acquisition we can find (especially since he'll be all paid for... well, except for what we'll owe him for player options he can exercise while not throwing most of the next half decade).

[Larry Cook]

Would bres-slow go seven years on fried???

[notin]

On 11/11/2024 at 1:16 PM, Hugh2 said:

I was looking at more of his statcast data, but actually some areas where he declined a little bit he actually ticked back up again in 2024.  His FB velo was as fast as ever. 

 

Ok, I'm back on the Burnes wagon.  Burnes or Fried. 

I’m thinking Burnes wants outrageous money. Why else would he keep losing arbitration hearings even after winning a Cy Young award?

[notin]

On 11/11/2024 at 1:29 PM, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Fried sounds like the perfect guy to add depth to Boston's rotation... of rehabbing IL pitchers. Just to be on the safe side, the Sox should wait until he has that second surgery, then pay him to rest, recuperate and come back as good as a new name hanging in a clubhouse locker.

When he suits up, said Sam Kennedy next summer -- referring to two summers from now -- he'll be better than any trade deadline acquisition we can find (especially since he'll be all paid for... well, except for what we'll owe him for player options he can exercise while not throwing most of the next half decade).

Spend on Soto - position players, while not immune, still represent better injury risks than pitchers.

 

Trade for a pitcher…

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Spend on Soto - position players, while not immune, still represent better injury risks than pitchers.

 

Trade for a pitcher…

At the end of the day, an injured pitcher is an injured pitcher.  You’re paying for that FA pitcher because you got position players on the cheap.  Guys who you won’t have if you start trading them for pitching who guess what? You will have to pay anyways.  All the pitchers on the trading block will either demand an extension or will become a free agent in a year or two.

unless someone like Logan Gilbert becomes available.  I think spending on pitchers is the way to go.

 

think of it this way.  
 

Option 1: Soto + arb pitcher = 45-50 million

Option 2: Roman Anthony + Fried\Burnes = 27-33 million

either pitcher could get inured and with option one you’ll have to spend more money on filling holes in the future 

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

At the end of the day, an injured pitcher is an injured pitcher.  You’re paying for that FA pitcher because you got position players on the cheap.  Guys who you won’t have if you start trading them for pitching who guess what? You will have to pay anyways.  All the pitchers on the trading block will either demand an extension or will become a free agent in a year or two.

unless someone like Logan Gilbert becomes available.  I think spending on pitchers is the way to go.

 

think of it this way.  
 

Option 1: Soto + arb pitcher = 45-50 million

Option 2: Roman Anthony + Fried\Burnes = 27-33 million

either pitcher could get inured and with option one you’ll have to spend more money on filling holes in the future 

I tend to agree with this sort of thinking, but I do think Soto is a once in a decade type of hitter that becomes a FA. He's better than Manny.

I do think I'd rather have Burnes + Fried than Soto.

[win red sox]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I tend to agree with this sort of thinking, but I do think Soto is a once in a decade type of hitter that becomes a FA. He's better than Manny.

I do think I'd rather have Burnes + Fried than Soto.

I think the counter argument to this is your paying for Soto's prime years, while your paying for the backside of Fried and Burnes.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, win red sox said:

I think the counter argument to this is your paying for Soto's prime years, while your paying for the backside of Fried and Burnes.

I can see both sides.

Actually, if Soto is paid for 12-14 years, yes you get his prime years but also the backside and the rear side of the backside, too.

The total cost may be cheaper for Burnes + Fried than what Soto gets total. The AAV might be about equal, except that the Burnes+Fried deals would expire in 6-7 year, not 12-14, like Sotos might.

[moonslav59]

I'll fall out of my chair, if we sign Soto.

I'll be thrilled, if we sign just Fried and Scott and nobody else. (Assuming we still trade Abreu and DHam for a RP'er and 1 year catcher.)

[Hugh2]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I tend to agree with this sort of thinking, but I do think Soto is a once in a decade type of hitter that becomes a FA. He's better than Manny.

I do think I'd rather have Burnes + Fried than Soto.

I agree, but I don't think adding one elite hitter to this team is going to be transformative.  Not the same way that adding two elite pitchers would be.

Keep in mind, any pitcher we trade for is going to want to get an extension, and you'd want to extend that guy, so if you're trading for a pitcher and signing Soto that's probably 60 million+ off your budget, that's is your budget pretty much.  

Rather, I'd like to add Fried/Scott and still have guys like Anthony/Mayer/Teel/Campbell in the system. 

I know there's more than one way to skid a cat, and a difference of opinion on this forum of whether to sign pitchers or trade for them, but I firmly believe all the stars are aligned to start spending the money on pitchers.  That's the best way to not only improve the team but to do so in a way that can keep them competitive for years to come. 

With all that said, I think it's perfectly possible for the Sox to go out and sign Soto/Fried/Scott and be in a position to stay within the luxury tax limit.  They would probably have to go over for a year or two, but there used to be a time when the Sox were ok with that as long as they could reset in a year or two.  I also get that fans have lost faith in ownerships commitment to doing so, and that's fair, we all have.  But if there was ever a time to go put your foot on the gas.....it's now. IMHO.