Rumor: Red Sox Linked To Yet Another Elite Starter, This Time It's Left-Handed Max Fried

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I really hope we keep rafeala in center field and he cuts down on the strike outs next season . He is an amazing talent 

CF yes. 

K% probably not. His 26% isn't that far off from his 22% he had in AAA. I'm not sure how he'll ever get that much lower against good pitchers that know how to attack him. If he becomes a passive hitter, he'll be a worse hitter IMO.

[Bellhorn04]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

To me, a core guy is someone you are going to build your team around and you don't want leaving the organization.

Definitely Core:

Devers

Possibly Core:

Houck

Duran

Future Core:

Anthony

Campbell

Mayer

Teel

 

So a lot of guys moon listed are not core.  I think we can get a few more posts out of this!

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So a lot of guys moon listed are not core.  I think we can get a few more posts out of this!

God, I hope so! Seems like it might be a slow day! 

Bello: not CORE! Isn't improving at all! 

Casas: not CORE! Can't even stay on the field!

Abreu: not CORE! Can't be CORE if he's the first player added to every trade without anyone complaining! 

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

God, I hope so! Seems like it might be a slow day! 

Bello: not CORE! Isn't improving at all! 

Casas: not CORE! Can't even stay on the field!

Abreu: not CORE! Can't be CORE if he's the first player added to every trade without anyone complaining! 

moon's list looks a lot like 'everyone we expect to be back if they're not traded'.  😁

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

moon's list looks a lot like 'everyone we expect to be back if they're not traded'.  😁

Casas, Abreu, Rafaela, Bello, Fitts, Slaten

Duran, Devers, DHan, Wong, Whitlock, Houck, Crawford

Fitts listed anywhere is wild. We've had less than one full season of RULE 5 PICK Slaten. David Hamilton was on most people's DFA list prior to Opening Day. Wong is a terrible catcher with a mediocre bat. Whitlock can't stay healthy. Crawford peaks as a #3 starter I guess.  Bello is young, but not getting a lick better. Rafaela is a bench guy they extended because they wanted to show fans they were actually working last offseason.

Cooper Criswell is more of a core player than a lot of the guys listed. He earned an additional option year and Sox can have him through 2029 (longer than Crawford, Houck, Whitlock, Wong, Casas, Duran). 

 

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

CF yes. 

K% probably not. His 26% isn't that far off from his 22% he had in AAA. I'm not sure how he'll ever get that much lower against good pitchers that know how to attack him. If he becomes a passive hitter, he'll be a worse hitter IMO.

I would never want him to be passive. But get to the point where he identifies the spin on the ball and does not swing at balls so far outside the strike zone 

[mvp 78]

44 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I would never want him to be passive. But get to the point where he identifies the spin on the ball and does not swing at balls so far outside the strike zone 

If he can just lay off sliders 2 ft out of the zone it would be a huge improvement, yes.

[Larry Cook]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

If he can just lay off sliders 2 ft out of the zone it would be a huge improvement, yes.

He needs to identify the spin first 

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

He needs to identify the spin first 

Easier said than done, methinks.

[moonslav59]

Slaten looks "core" to me.

We can argue all day what "core" or "foundation" mean, but I think the guys I listed will have key roles on the team for their remaining controlled years.  I can see MVP's point about "core" needing to be more than a utility type player, so I'll break it down, player-by-player.

Devers, Duran and Houck are core in any sense of the word. I guess I can understand someone thinking we have only 3 core players that have unquestionable star status.

Bello, Crawford, Whitlock and Slaten look to be significant plus pitchers, especially if used in correct roles.

Wong needs to improve on defense to be viewed as a plus starting catcher, and maybe he will. It took VTek a long time to get to plus-plus on D. Just a little improvement would make him a very good back-up catcher, who can PH or play 2B, at times. (Teel offers some hope, but I would not call him "core," just yet.)

Casas has yet to put up a monster year, but his 162 game line from 2023-2024 is .256  31 81 (.838 OPS and 126 OPS+) The guy turns 25, soon. If he is not core, then I guess I am willing to argue semantics.

Story could be "core," if he remains healthy. His years of control are dwindling, which could be fine, as long as Mayer comes through.

Mayer and Campbell are speculative core. I'll leave it at that. Meidroth has some hope for near-term contributions.

Abreu and Rafaela both have a major flaw that needs fixing, in order to be called FT core players. Abreu needs to hit LHPs, but can still be a major plus, if platooned. Rafaela needs to hit .700 or .720 to be a FT player. That does not seem like an impossible task, at his age. As some sort of platoon, these two, combined could be viewed as one single "core" player. Maybe, someday they can be two.

To me, Anthony seems to be a sure bet MLB core player, but I can understand wanting to wait on that label.

Other pitchers all have flaws or too few years of control to be considered as core. On a 13 man staff, some should add value in limited roles:

Gio & Hendriks have one year left and injury-recovery issues.

Winckowski has some flashy numbers, along with others not-so-flashy ones. Out of 150 pitchers with 160+ IP since 2023, Wink has the 23rd best ERA- at 80. (He's 61st in SIERA at 3.98, 64th i  XFIP at 4.01, but 126th in WHIP at 1.42.) Call him a useful mid-pen guy.

Guerrero has a lot to prove. The rest might be useful pen depth but more like #11-13 or AAA guys. Penrod, Kelly, Bernardino, Weissert, Mata and I Campbell have some hope. Booser, Wilson, Fulmer, Shugart and others may not last the season.

Priester, Fitts, Criswell and Dobbins look promising, to me, but not "core," just yet. Perales might be a full season or 1.5 away.

I won't go down to AA and lower players, but we have some promise below our top 5-6 prospects.

I think we have a decent core and foundation of players, at or pre-prime, who have 3 or more years of control. Many are not even to year one arbs and no key players are even at year 2. We have a 2-3 year window, where we will have a pretty big core of lower-cost players to supplement the FAs we should add.

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Bello, Crawford, Whitlock and Slaten look to be significant plus pitchers, especially if used in correct roles.

Slaten perhaps.  The other 3 can only reasonably be projected as average MLB pitchers, and that might even be a best case scenario.  We can't just go on their good stretches.

[notin]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

God, I hope so! Seems like it might be a slow day! 

Bello: not CORE! Isn't improving at all! 

Casas: not CORE! Can't even stay on the field!

Abreu: not CORE! Can't be CORE if he's the first player added to every trade without anyone complaining! 

I’m fine with not including Bello as a foundational piece going forward.  But the criticism of “not improving at all” is extremely premature for a player with 2 seasons that make up his entire career…

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Wong needs to improve on defense to be viewed as a plus starting catcher, and maybe he will. It took VTek a long time to get to plus-plus on D. Just a little improvement would make him a very good back-up catcher, who can PH or play 2B, at times. (Teel offers some hope, but I would not call him "core," just yet.)

Casas has yet to put up a monster year, but his 162 game line from 2023-2024 is .256  31 81 (.838 OPS and 126 OPS+) The guy turns 25, soon. If he is not core, then I guess I am willing to argue semantics.

You listed a lot of guys, but I'll just mention these two. 

Wong is already in the process of being replaced. He will be 29 next season. Tek may have been a late bloomer, but his defense wasn't really a work in progress when he became a fulltime player in '99. Wong doesn't have it yet and never will.

Casas may have a good 162 game line, but he can't stay healthy for 162 and is horrible defensively. With those vaunted stats, he's only a 2 bWAR per 162 guy. He may not be a top 15 1B in the league 

[Larry Cook]

I think slaten was an excellent addition in 2024! Let’s hope we get a left handed version of him this offseason. 

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I think slaten was an excellent addition in 2024! Let’s hope we get a left handed version of him this offseason. 

Here are some of the lefties that I've seen mentioned: 

Angels: Jack Dashwood, LHP
Health has been an issue for the 6-foot-6 lefty drafted in 2019 as he’s thrown just 40 innings over the past two seasons combined (10 in 2024). He has a low-90s fastball and a decent mid-80s slider that he used to post a 17/2 K/BB ratio over 10 AFL innings this fall. He’s 27, but could be a potential Rule 5 target as a useful lefty reliever.

Braves: Luis De Avila, LHP (No. 15)
The Braves first got De Avila in the Rule 5 Draft -- the Minor League phase -- in December 2021. At the lower levels of Atlanta's system, he missed bats and got a lot of ground-ball outs in 2022 and 2023. He was effective at Double-A in 2024, with a 3.74 ERA that would have placed him fifth in that category in the Southern League had he thrown enough innings, to go along with a 1.68 GO/AO. He missed a lot fewer bats (79 K’s in 101 IP), but he is a lefty with a track record.

Padres: Jagger Haynes, LHP (No. 20)
The Padres rolled the dice on drafting Haynes as a raw prep lefty in the final round of the shortened 2020 Draft, and he’s shown glimpses of promise without much production. He had Tommy John surgery and didn’t make his official pro debut until 2023, only throwing 25 1/3 innings that year. He was healthy in 2024 with mixed results at High-A, which probably means he’s too far away for real Rule 5 consideration, but his fastball-curve combination from the left side is intriguing.

Of these guys, only Dashwood seems like a guy Breslow would target. Why snag the next Booser in Rule 5 when you can get something better in FA though? 

[Randy Red Sox]

On 11/12/2024 at 1:56 PM, notin said:

Spend on Soto - position players, while not immune, still represent better injury risks than pitchers.

 

Trade for a pitcher…

makes sense actually

[Larry Cook]

And if we miss on Soto 

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Slaten perhaps.  The other 3 can only reasonably be projected as average MLB pitchers, and that might even be a best case scenario.  We can't just go on their good stretches.

They look to be average or a bit above average, now, and are still pre-prime.

It's interesting to look at the SIERA rankings of Sox pitchers from 2023-2024. 150 SP'ers with 160+ IP (5 pitchers per 30 teams-150)

5. Pivetta 3.32 (Not sure why so many are down on this guy.)

58. Houck 3.96 (7th in GB% and 38th ERA-)

61. Winckowski 3.99 (23rd in ERA-) 14th in GB%

66. Crawford 4.03 (near bottom 10 in GB%)

74. Bello 4.15 (8th in GB%)

All 5 are in the upper half in MLB. (Pivetta is a FA and Giolito is #81.)

To me, "core" is not the same as All Star.

[Larry Cook]

54 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They look to be average or a bit above average, now, and are still pre-prime.

It's interesting to look at the SIERA rankings of Sox pitchers from 2023-2024. 150 SP'ers with 160+ IP (5 pitchers per 30 teams-150)

5. Pivetta 3.32 (Not sure why so many are down on this guy.)

58. Houck 3.96 (7th in GB% and 38th ERA-)

61. Winckowski 3.99 (23rd in ERA-) 14th in GB%

66. Crawford 4.03 (near bottom 10 in GB%)

74. Bello 4.15 (8th in GB%)

All 5 are in the upper half in MLB. (Pivetta is a FA and Giolito is #81.)

To me, "core" is not the same as All Star.

Core to me are players with multiple years of team control. 
 

our rotation core is Houk Bello, Crawford, criswell, Fitts and preister! 
 

The one thing that core says is no top end pitcher! It is missing a number 1 and a number 2 starter!!!! 

 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Core to me are players with multiple years of team control. 
 

our rotation core is Houk Bello, Crawford, criswell, Fitts and preister! 
 

The one thing that core says is no top end pitcher! It is missing a number 1 and a number 2 starter!!!! 

 

Unless 2024 was a fluke, Houck is one of MLB's best #2's, but I agree we need two top SP'ers.

Burnes of Fried

Trade for another.

Houck becomes a top #3 SP'er.

Bello, Crawford, Gio, Criswell, Priester and Fitts can fight over the last 2 slots. (After 2025, drop Gio from the fight.)

Signing two also pushes Crawford, Bello or Gio to the pen as a solid long man.

I'm all in. There is room for both of us on the front seat of this bandwagon.

[Larry Cook]

There used to be an unwritten rule that when a pitcher exceeds his total innings pitched by X% in year one, there was regression in year 2! 
we could have regression from some starters 

[notin]

13 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Core to me are players with multiple years of team control. 
 

our rotation core is Houk Bello, Crawford, criswell, Fitts and preister! 
 

The one thing that core says is no top end pitcher! It is missing a number 1 and a number 2 starter!!!! 

 

Arguing over which players are core is asking questions with no answers.

Foundational/core players are players you build your team around.  Since every one of us would build a team differently, we should all have different (even if only slightly) foundations/cores…

[Larry Cook]

Will the Yankees pursue fried if they miss out on Soto???