Rumor: Red Sox Linked To Yet Another Elite Starter, This Time It's Left-Handed Max Fried

[Hugh2]

I've heard a lot of buzz about Walker Buehler.  I've read that he's the profile that Andrew Bailey and Breslow absolutely love in a pitcher.  While his 5.38 ERA doesn't exactly scream "I'm good sign me" he was recovering from TJ surgery, had a much better September and was absolute money in the NLCS and the World Series.  He could be showing us he's returning to form of the guy he was in 2021 when he was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball.

I wouldn't like it if that's the Sox only move, but if they signed him AND someone like Fried I think that would be a really exciting offseason.  Your rotation next year could be

Fried/Buehler/Houck/Bello/Crawford.

That rotation could be really really good. 

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/boston-red-sox-news/why-dodgers-32-million-world-series-hero-is-sneaky-good-fit-for-red-sox-jackson3#:~:text=And among the pitchers who,Sox in a recent article.

 

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I agree, but I don't think adding one elite hitter to this team is going to be transformative.  Not the same way that adding two elite pitchers would be.

Keep in mind, any pitcher we trade for is going to want to get an extension, and you'd want to extend that guy, so if you're trading for a pitcher and signing Soto that's probably 60 million+ off your budget, that's is your budget pretty much.  

Rather, I'd like to add Fried/Scott and still have guys like Anthony/Mayer/Teel/Campbell in the system. 

I know there's more than one way to skid a cat, and a difference of opinion on this forum of whether to sign pitchers or trade for them, but I firmly believe all the stars are aligned to start spending the money on pitchers.  That's the best way to not only improve the team but to do so in a way that can keep them competitive for years to come. 

With all that said, I think it's perfectly possible for the Sox to go out and sign Soto/Fried/Scott and be in a position to stay within the luxury tax limit.  They would probably have to go over for a year or two, but there used to be a time when the Sox were ok with that as long as they could reset in a year or two.  I also get that fans have lost faith in ownerships commitment to doing so, and that's fair, we all have.  But if there was ever a time to go put your foot on the gas.....it's now. IMHO. 

Nice post. I will add that there are a few trade targets that have 3-5 years of control, and may not need extensions, right now. There are also trade targets like Pablo Lopez and Luis Castillo that would not be extended, but come at a moderate pay level that is cheaper than a FA cost for equal projected production.

IMO, we have a ton of young talent and should do a deep dive evaluation to determine which one we can and should trade that makes the least impact on our longer term outlook. This also involves looking at bottle-necked positions and where Campbell fits best, position-wise. The question of Story's health is too hard to predict, so I think we need to plan around zero games from him, but have the flex to be able to play Mayer & Campbell FT, so maybe it makes sense to trade one. (We also have Grissom & DHam, who I think makes a good 2B platoon, and Arias, Romero and other middle IF'er should be ML ready before Story departs.) Making a trade for a young and controlled pitcher would allow more budget space for a big signing, like Soto or Fried/Burnes, or to spread it out between 3-4 really good but not great signings plus Scott.

Kinda rambled there, sorry.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I've heard a lot of buzz about Walker Buehler.  I've read that he's the profile that Andrew Bailey and Breslow absolutely love in a pitcher.  While his 5.38 ERA doesn't exactly scream "I'm good sign me" he was recovering from TJ surgery, had a much better September and was absolute money in the NLCS and the World Series.  He could be showing us he's returning to form of the guy he was in 2021 when he was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball.

I wouldn't like it if that's the Sox only move, but if they signed him AND someone like Fried I think that would be a really exciting offseason.  Your rotation next year could be

Fried/Buehler/Houck/Bello/Crawford.

That rotation could be really really good. 

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/boston-red-sox-news/why-dodgers-32-million-world-series-hero-is-sneaky-good-fit-for-red-sox-jackson3#:~:text=And among the pitchers who,Sox in a recent article.

 

He seems like another Richards-Paxton-Kluber type signing, where most of us were okay with, as long as it wasn't the centerpiece of improving the rotation. 

Yes, he and Fried would be fine, but not him alone.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He seems like another Richards-Paxton-Kluber type signing, where most of us were okay with, as long as it wasn't the centerpiece of improving the rotation. 

Yes, he and Fried would be fine, but not him alone.

I think Buehler has considerably more upside than that triumvirate you mentioned.

[Hugh2]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think Buehler has considerably more upside than that triumvirate you mentioned.

I think he does too.  If he's the guy who showed up in the playoffs and he's succesfully recovered from TJ then he could be one of the best pitchers in baseball for the next several years.  

And he'll cost you a fraction of what Fried/Burnes will. 

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think Buehler has considerably more upside than that triumvirate you mentioned.

Upside? Sure. 

Maybe Bailey could knock him on the head and tell him to only throw his 4 best pitches rather than all 7 of them? His 2024 injury was unrelated to the TJS that caused him to be out previously. For me, it would depend on money and length of contract. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I think he does too.  If he's the guy who showed up in the playoffs and he's succesfully recovered from TJ then he could be one of the best pitchers in baseball for the next several years.  

And he'll cost you a fraction of what Fried/Burnes will. 

It takes 16-18 months to recover from TJS, but this was his second (which is typically the death knell). Dodgers were hoping for a full recovery after 24 months which was last August. Maybe it took 26 months? Maybe he just had a lucky October stretch?  

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

19 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think Buehler has considerably more upside than that triumvirate you mentioned.

Considering he just showed the world his good side -- in his last three appearances on the biggest stage -- he's definitely not a Kluber, who the Sox signed right after giving up a walk-off homer to knock Tampa out of the playoffs.

Recency bias founded in ringacy facts carries carats that help fans blinded by the darkness to see through the fog of history.

[Hugh2]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It takes 16-18 months to recover from TJS, but this was his second (which is typically the death knell). Dodgers were hoping for a full recovery after 24 months which was last August. Maybe it took 26 months? Maybe he just had a lucky October stretch?  

That's why he's not making bank, and that's why I won't him as the second starting pitching acquisition and not the primary one.  That's interesting, admittedly I'm not too familiar with his injury.   Did it take that long to recover? or did he have set backs? or ancillary injuries along the way?

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think Buehler has considerably more upside than that triumvirate you mentioned.

Kinda/sorta/yes, but as you know, I'm "tired" of relying on comebacks.

Buehler is 30. He has not had a great year since 2021. He had another great year in 2019. I'm not sure those two seasons, 4 and 6 years ago makes him a better bet than Kluber and Paxton were.

Richards was 33 when we got him, so throw him out, and he had gone 6 years without a great season, when we gave him a shot.

Kluber was a two time Cy Young winner and top 3 four times. Yes, he was 37, when we signed him, but had made 31 starts the year before and did okay. He was 5 years removed from his last great season, so I do agree Walker B looks like a better upside choice than Kluber was.

Paxton was never as great as Kluber or Buehler but had decent year just 4, 5 and 6 years prior ('17-'19) He was 33, when we added him, but 34 when he pitched for us.

4 and 6 years ago is a long time ago. Buehler's last 3 years:

28 GS (about 9 per season)

4.74 ERA (83 ERA+)

4.74 FIP

1.43 WHIP

7.8 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9

These numbers are not much  better than the guys I mentioned were, when we signed them.

[moonslav59]

I'd rather sign the young guy Sasaki over Buehler, as "the second guy."

We also have to think Pivetta may force himself into being the "second guy," if he takes the QO. We aren't adding two big SP'ers, if Pivetta is returning.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Kinda/sorta/yes, but as you know, I'm "tired" of relying on comebacks.

Buehler is 30. He has not had a great year since 2021. He had another great year in 2019. I'm not sure those two seasons, 4 and 6 years ago makes him a better bet than Kluber and Paxton were.

Richards was 33 when we got him, so throw him out, and he had gone 6 years without a great season, when we gave him a shot.

Kluber was a two time Cy Young winner and top 3 four times. Yes, he was 37, when we signed him, but had made 31 starts the year before and did okay. He was 5 years removed from his last great season, so I do agree Walker B looks like a better upside choice than Kluber was.

Paxton was never as great as Kluber or Buehler but had decent year just 4, 5 and 6 years prior ('17-'19) He was 33, when we added him, but 34 when he pitched for us.

4 and 6 years ago is a long time ago. Buehler's last 3 years:

28 GS (about 9 per season)

4.74 ERA (83 ERA+)

4.74 FIP

1.43 WHIP

7.8 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9

These numbers are not much  better than the guys I mentioned were, when we signed them.

Yeah, it's all rather an academic discussion.  It's up to Brez and Bailey what they think of him.

Hopefully Henry really will let Brez make the decisions he wants to. 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, it's all rather an academic discussion.  It's up to Brez and Bailey what they think of him.

Hopefully Henry really will let Brez make the decisions he wants to. 

Equally important is that Brez chooses wisely or has good luck.

(Do you think Gio was Brez's top 3 pick?)

[Bellhorn04]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Equally important is that Brez chooses wisely or has good luck.

(Do you think Gio was Brez's top 3 pick?)

Last year was mostly a sham, of course.  They talked big and then cut the budget.  Brez was probably a bit frustrated would be my guess.

Even if you like Giolito a lot, the contract they gave him with an opt-out after one year was sham all the way.

 

  

[Hugh2]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd rather sign the young guy Sasaki over Buehler, as "the second guy."

We also have to think Pivetta may force himself into being the "second guy," if he takes the QO. We aren't adding two big SP'ers, if Pivetta is returning.

ROKI  is going to cost you team control for 6 years.   He should have zero bearing on being able to go out and sign other guys.  No reason to not sign him and Fried/Buehler. 

[Bellhorn04]

Sasaki is already as good as a Dodger according to most observers.  And that's perfectly logical.  Why would he want to go anywhere else?

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

That's why he's not making bank, and that's why I won't him as the second starting pitching acquisition and not the primary one.  That's interesting, admittedly I'm not too familiar with his injury.   Did it take that long to recover? or did he have set backs? or ancillary injuries along the way?

He was "healthy" to start the season, but his stuff just wasn't really there. He suffered a hip injury early on and missed significant time. I don't believe it had anything to do with the TJS. The Dodgers hoped that eventually he'd get his stuff back towards the end of the season. Maybe it just came back at the right time? Maybe it was just good luck and adrenaline? 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

How lucky of Buehler to throw 6 scoreless World Series innings vs. the team that led MLB in home runs, and the AL in runs, RBIs, OBP and OPS... after a 4-frame NLCS shutout start vs. the club that hit seven HRs in the NLDS.

[notin]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I've heard a lot of buzz about Walker Buehler.  I've read that he's the profile that Andrew Bailey and Breslow absolutely love in a pitcher.  While his 5.38 ERA doesn't exactly scream "I'm good sign me" he was recovering from TJ surgery, had a much better September and was absolute money in the NLCS and the World Series.  He could be showing us he's returning to form of the guy he was in 2021 when he was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball.

I wouldn't like it if that's the Sox only move, but if they signed him AND someone like Fried I think that would be a really exciting offseason.  Your rotation next year could be

Fried/Buehler/Houck/Bello/Crawford.

That rotation could be really really good. 

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/boston-red-sox-news/why-dodgers-32-million-world-series-hero-is-sneaky-good-fit-for-red-sox-jackson3#:~:text=And among the pitchers who,Sox in a recent article.

 

859 career IP and already two TJ surgeries.  Depends on the length of contract…

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

How lucky of Buehler to throw 6 scoreless World Series innings vs. the team that led MLB in home runs, and the AL in runs, RBIs, OBP and OPS... after a 4-frame NLCS shutout start vs. the club that hit seven HRs in the NLDS.

Maybe? In Sept he gave up 4 ER to the Rockies and 5 ER to the Cubs. He had a 5.05 FIP/4.93 ERA from August 14 - Sept 30 after coming back from the hip injury. He gave up 6 ER in the NLDS to the Pads in Game 3. He had one good 10 inning stretch since then.  

[notin]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Sasaki is already as good as a Dodger according to most observers.  And that's perfectly logical.  Why would he want to go anywhere else?

1. Money?

2. Maybe his competitive spirit is such that he wants to beat the defending champs?  All players want to win on some level, but all of them don’t necessarily want to ride along on someone else’s successes…

 

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, notin said:

1. Money?

2. Maybe his competitive spirit is such that he wants to beat the defending champs?  All players want to win on some level, but all of them don’t necessarily want to ride along on someone else’s successes…

 

Dodgers have the most INTL money left from what I've heard. 

[Hugh2]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Dodgers have the most INTL money left from what I've heard. 

They do, followed by Baltimore and Oakland. 

[Larry Cook]

I hope we focus on signing fried and trading for Montgomery. 
buehler becomes viable option only if the options I mention above do not work out 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Maybe? In Sept he gave up 4 ER to the Rockies and 5 ER to the Cubs. He had a 5.05 FIP/4.93 ERA from August 14 - Sept 30 after coming back from the hip injury. He gave up 6 ER in the NLDS to the Pads in Game 3. He had one good 10 inning stretch since then.  

So, Buehler still wasn't 100% healed down the stretch, but finally found it vs. the hottest teams under the biggest spotlight.

All we have to do now is get the Red Sox medical team of assistant vice presidents to analyze and double-check his x-rays, MRIs, ultrasounds, ultrasmells, catscans, dogscans and high school report cards for his biology, chemistry and alchemy grades...

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Last year was mostly a sham, of course.  They talked big and then cut the budget.  Brez was probably a bit frustrated would be my guess.

Even if you like Giolito a lot, the contract they gave him with an opt-out after one year was sham all the way.

 

  

Agreed, and the sham went so deep and on so many levels. 

I think the sham went back many years, at different levels from extreme to kinda mild.

Part of me thinks the plan was for a long and slow rebuild, while trying to stay semi-competitive, or at least give the perception were were from 2019 onwards. One could argue that time is up, and the final rebuild step, which to me is to add key pieces from outside the organization to get as close to glory as possible, is upon us.

Now, I need to pinch myself or smack myself upside my noggin'.

[Larry Cook]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed, and the sham went so deep and on so many levels. 

I think the sham went back many years, at different levels from extreme to kinda mild.

Part of me thinks the plan was for a long and slow rebuild, while trying to stay semi-competitive, or at least give the perception were were from 2019 onwards. One could argue that time is up, and the final rebuild step, which to me is to add key pieces from outside the organization to get as close to glory as possible, is upon us.

Now, I need to pinch myself or smack myself upside my noggin'.

Staying competitive without pitching during the rebuild was too much for hang’em Chaim. 
 

bres-slow did better until the post all star game collapse 

[moonslav59]

14 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Staying competitive without pitching during the rebuild was too much for hang’em Chaim. 
 

bres-slow did better until the post all star game collapse 

He tried, but at $10M/1, I'm not sure expecting solutions was reasonable. Bloom should have done better with what he spent on SP'ing.

$30M on Richards, Kluber and Paxton was a miss.

$12M on Wacha & Hill was fine.

$11M on 2 years of Perez was meh.

$53M on all these guys was a miss, but not too far from what is expected for 6 pitchers and 8 years of control, counting the on Paxton was rehabbing.

Bllom did better with the pen: Jansen, Martin and finding Schreiber and others. (The Barnes extension & Diekman were yuck-a-doodle-doo.)

[Larry Cook]

It sounds like bres-slow is really pushing hard to sign fried. Maybe ownership is giving him extra budget for this signing 

[moonslav59]

On 11/13/2024 at 10:46 PM, Larry Cook said:

Staying competitive without pitching during the rebuild was too much for hang’em Chaim. 
 

bres-slow did better until the post all star game collapse 

I think they greatly overestimated what Richards, Kluber and Paxton would give, but yes, how much more could they have done that would have gotten us to the dance.