A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Old Red]

2 hours ago, notin said:

First of all, if the concern was the Sox are not listening, what does it matter how many are talking?

Second, if you think the Sox defense has been ignored as a subject, Henry isn’t the only one not listening.  The Sox defense has been a subject of conversation for much longer than the Sale trade.  

Also the Sox are clearly trying to fix the defense.  Rafaela was not extended for his offensive skill set.  The Sox have also reportedly discussed moving Devers off third, something I didn’t think would reach even that phase.

But most important - f*** off on telling people what they can and can’t talk about.  Especially since you clearly don’t follow your own rules.  If the topic is related to the Red Sox and baseball, it’s fair game and doesn’t matter whether or not the Sox will make the move or follow through with it or whatever.

And Atlanta wasn’t listening to you.  That doesn’t even make sense…

Happy New Years to you too! The Red Sox have known about their Bad D for the last 3 years from. Arroyo in RF, Franchy at 1B, and keeping Kike at SS as long as they did. The Red Sox especially Cora has talked how the D being bad, and having to get better at length time after time in post games press conferences for the last three years. Tom the full throttle man has even mentioned it. They all know about it, but like I keep saying it’s not that big of a concern to them to fix it, and just keep playing the cards they have delt themselves, which is Raffy at 3B,  and Casas at 1B, and Masa at DH. Clearly Rafaela  doesn’t have Anything to do with that situation. Cora has said repeatedly that Raffy is the 3B, so you can cling to any reported discussions to move him off.

Now to the important stuff. I didn’t tell anyone what people can say, or talk about. You guys crack me up. Some of you guys think you’re the smartest guys in the room including the Red Sox room. You’re not. The Red Sox from top to bottom know the infield D is bad, so to keep barking at the moon when the moon isn’t even out looks, and sounds kind of foolish. NNN is still living up to his name. Good football day today. You bet. Red Sox way on the back burner again. You bet.

[Old Red]

23 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Let's not be cursing out other posters, please.  Red isn't literally telling anyone what they can talk about or not.  He's basically saying it's a waste of time talking about some things because the team just isn't doing them.  I get that he does it in a needling way, but he's not crossing any lines.  Telling others to eff off does cross the line.  

👍👍👍. I know all of you post what you think the Red Sox should do, or shouldn’t do, and what you would like to see them do. I on the other hand sometimes post what I think the Red Sox are going to do, and not what I think about it. Big difference, but sometimes you just have to accept things as they are like in the case of Raffy at 3B, and Casas at 1B. EVERYONE is well aware they are not good at their positions. If it makes you feel better to keep talking about it, and that’s your thang then by all means go for it, but I don’t think it really does that. IMO

[harmony]

FanGraphs currently projects the 2025 Red Sox with 40.7 WAR, eighth in the American League and third in the AL East:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, harmony said:

FanGraphs currently projects the 2025 Red Sox with 40.7 WAR, eighth in the American League and third in the AL East:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

That's a reality check.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i actually like our rotation right now.  Crochet is said to be a stud and I think Bello will take another step this year. I am hoping Buehler is finally healthy. He is only 30 and with his TJ's doesn't have a lot of mileage on his wing. I like his upside and it is only a 1 yr deal. Houck should fit as a good #3 and Gio is said to be ready for ST. Crawford gives solid depth both as a starter or in the pen.

Question is going to be the BP which has some good arms but lots of questions too. If everything goes right it could be solid or of course it could be our undoing. The Orioles and Blue Jays have done very little so far this offseason and Tampa not much either. Right now I think the Sox are the 2nd best team in the division.

I guess every rotation has several question marks, and our is no different. I think ours got a lot better by adding Crochet, Buehler and Giolito and subtracting Pivetta. I also feel a lot better about Houck and Crawford than I did, this time last year, especially concerning workload and going past 5 IP. There still are questions on those two, but the outlook is better, now. The addition of Priester helps with the depth. Fitts looks better now, as a depth option, than we thought, last winter. Criswell was not even discussed, last winter- now he looks like a nice depth piece. 

The pen looks way worse, to me, even with Crawford added to it. Maybe someone like Criswell, Fulmer, Fitts or Priester will be transitioned into a innings eater pen role, at some point, but we will likely cycle through 12-16 RP'ers before going to them. I will say we have a lot of RP'er who hold some level of promise. That is never a bad thing, but one problem could arise: we have too many RP'ers, who fail and lose games for us, until we settle on the 8 that work out. Picking the right 8 on day one could solve a lot of headaches. Taking away any SP'er, besides Crawford from the pen mix, here is how I rank them:

Chapman & Hendriks share the closer and major set-up role.

Slaten & Whitlock (might start season on IL) are the primary set-up men.

Wilson will be the token LHP (besides Chapman,) but maybe Bernardino steals the job from him, if he can regain his 2023 and first half 2024 form.

Winckowski and Crawford handle the bulk innings, but hopefully not too much mop up innings are needed. That's 7 (counting one from Wilson/Bernardino)

Those with a chance at the 8 slot: Bernardino/Guerrero/Penrod/A Adams/Kelly/Weissert. I actually think out 8-14 slots might be better than most teams, but our 1-7 may not be. After #14 is not so bad, either: I Campbell, Mata, Shugart, Jose Adames, H Harris, N Davis, W Olds and AA guys like Hoppe, Troye, Uberstine and Sandlin.

Our weakest areas on the other side of the roster are (not in order):

1. Catcher and corner IF defense.

2. RHB w power

3. SS depth, if Mayer or Story are hurt (which is probably likely) Romy is okay, but we should try to avoid using Rafaela there, again, unless his defense improves.

 

[notin]

5 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i actually like our rotation right now.  Crochet is said to be a stud and I think Bello will take another step this year. I am hoping Buehler is finally healthy. He is only 30 and with his TJ's doesn't have a lot of mileage on his wing. I like his upside and it is only a 1 yr deal. Houck should fit as a good #3 and Gio is said to be ready for ST. Crawford gives solid depth both as a starter or in the pen.

Question is going to be the BP which has some good arms but lots of questions too. If everything goes right it could be solid or of course it could be our undoing. The Orioles and Blue Jays have done very little so far this offseason and Tampa not much either. Right now I think the Sox are the 2nd best team in the division.

I think the rotation stands for a while as well.  They have 11 starting pitchers on the 40 man roster, including Sandoval, who will go to the 60 day IL before the season starts.

The bullpen could use an arm or two.

I still think even without Burnes, you might be selling Baltimore short.  The Sox haven’t fully closed the 10 game gap between the teams from last season..

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

 They have 11 starting pitchers on the 40 man roster, including Sandoval, who will go to the 60 day IL before the season starts.

I think they have to wait until the season starts to add someone to the 60 day IL. That may create a little roster crunch, and they may wait to add Campbell or Anthony until game 2 for this reason. Both are not on the 40.

[notin]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think they have to wait until the season starts to add someone to the 60 day IL. That may create a little roster crunch, and they may wait to add Campbell or Anthony until game 2 for this reason. Both are not on the 40.

Fulmer is another possibility.  Reportedly they want him as a starter as well, but he’s another TJ Two Timer and therefore a significant risk if needed for too many IP…

[Randy Red Sox]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

Fulmer is another possibility.  Reportedly they want him as a starter as well, but he’s another TJ Two Timer and therefore a significant risk if needed for too many IP…

Sox are the kings of signing two time TJ pitchers.  Henry likes them because they come cheap and almost always on 1 year deals.

[Duran Is The Man]

23 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

They know, but they care more about their $313M 3Bman's feelings than building a winner.

sad but true, i believe. 

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

Fulmer is another possibility.  Reportedly they want him as a starter as well, but he’s another TJ Two Timer and therefore a significant risk if needed for too many IP…

Yes. He may be more likely as an early season addition. We may wait a few weeks for the kids, so they gain a year of control. For cheap JH, that matters.

[Larry Cook]

On 12/31/2024 at 6:14 PM, moonslav59 said:

You did not mention Anthony for CF and or RF.

I'd say Catcher is the number one positional need, along with balancing the Lefty overload. It's really more about defense at 3 positions (C, 3B, 1B) and offense at one position (CF) with no position lacking in both areas. Maybe Campbell can play 3B, at some point, but that would indirectly squeeze out Yoshida.

At some point, someone will get squeezed, unless all three top prospects flop.

Anthony can easily squeeze Rafaela to a jack-of-all-trades utility man and or  a platoon w Abreu (as Anthony could alternate between CF and RF, depending on who is playing.)

Mayer could play 3B, 2B or squeeze Story to 2B.

Campbell could push DHam and Grissom to utility roles or push Devers to 1B/DH.

It seems like the easiest way to balance the L-R thing is to trade Abreu and sign someone like Grichuk on a 1 year deal, until we know more about the kids.

notin mentioned a Story for Sean Murphy deal that would bring us the RHB we need and a decent catcher, but it would lock us into Mayer at SS with not much depth, unless you think Campbell could do better than Rafaela. I'd rather see Romy sub at SS than DHam or Grissom.

 

Where does Bergman create an upgrade? Is he worth 170mm more than Campbell at 2nd base???

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Where does Bergman create an upgrade? Is he worth 170mm more than Campbell at 2nd base???

I've said all along. Do NOT sign Bregman to play 2B.

Signing Bregman to play 3B would greatly improve 3B defense from worst or next to worst to about the best of next to best.

He'd improve our offense, even if he keeps hitting .795, like his 4 and 5 year OPS. his 5 year 122 OPS+ is an upgrade over Yoshida, who would be the displaced batter with Devers and Casas playing 1B/DH.

Casas is an awful defensive 1Bman, so if Devers can be better than him at 1B defense, we could see an upgrade there, too. (His main concern on D is his arm.)

Is he worth $160M to $190M? No, but nobody is worth what they sign for. He's the biggest impact FA left standing, especially when you consider we aren't signing Scott.

Again, DO NOT SIGN BREGMAN TO PLAY 2B.

Bregman was not near the top of my FA wish list, but we have $30M to spend and still be under the tax line.

(I'd be fine with Campbell at 3B and a DHam-Grisoom platoon at 2B, too.

[moonslav59]

I feel like signing Bregman would show JH is coming out of his coma, but then I think, that's no reason to sign a big FA like 20th on my list of FAs I wish we'd sign.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 hours ago, notin said:

Fulmer is another possibility.  Reportedly they want him as a starter as well, but he’s another TJ Two Timer and therefore a significant risk if needed for too many IP…

The Assistant VP in the back office made a mistake when he acquired him. He thought the name of the player was Pulmor -- as in tendons or ligaments -- which makes for the perfect Sox target.

[mvp 78]

On 12/31/2024 at 8:18 PM, moonslav59 said:

Breslow and all the non answers...

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/craig-breslow-discusses-casas-bregman-devers.html

Are you expecting him to just throw his whole plan out there for the public and other teams to see. What purpose would that serve? 

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, notin said:

Fulmer is another possibility.  Reportedly they want him as a starter as well, but he’s another TJ Two Timer and therefore a significant risk if needed for too many IP…

If Fulmer is being stretched out, it's to fill a Chase Andersen type role. I think they'll have multiple guys that are able to throw multiple innings out of the pen, especially if they are considering a six man rotation. 

[Bellhorn04]

31 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Are you expecting him to just throw his whole plan out there for the public and other teams to see. What purpose would that serve? 

Agreed, but the real problem is that the Red Sox front office has so little credibility now because reality keeps showing they're the Interest Kings who keep delivering the promises but not the goods. 

Which I don't think is Breslow's fault.  But he's the one who has to make most of the public statements.  

[mvp 78]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

Agreed, but the real problem is that the Red Sox front office has so little credibility now because reality keeps showing they're the Interest Kings who keep delivering promises but not goods. 

Which I don't think is Breslow's fault.  But he's the one who has to make most of the public statements.  

He makes public statements, but is constrained in what he can say. He can't go out and say "I want to trade Casas, Yoshida, Abreu and these other 5 guys." If those trades don't go through, those players will be pretty pissed for a while. Fans want clarity and insight, but they aren't really entitled to it at all times. It's fair for them to say "spend more" but not to be upset at Breslow if he isn't putting the dirty laundry out there the way Sam/Cora did with the Bregman situation initially. 

[Bellhorn04]

I think they've reached the stage where Sox fans who are in touch with reality ignore anything that sounds promising and key in on the signs that the payroll is staying in the 10-15 range where FSG shareholders like it.  

[drewski6]

22 hours ago, harmony said:

FanGraphs currently projects the 2025 Red Sox with 40.7 WAR, eighth in the American League and third in the AL East:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

BTW thats like 4th in pitching, 24th with the bats.

[Old Red]

50 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Are you expecting him to just throw his whole plan out there for the public and other teams to see. What purpose would that serve? 

There are so Many rumors out there anyways that the fans just latch on to so it’s like it’s done for him. He has talked about a RHH that’s been easy to pick up the last three years, but seems to be a problem now.

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, drewski6 said:

BTW thats like 4th in pitching, 24th with the bats.

The FO "should be" embarrassed by the hideous projections for the offense.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

BTW thats like 4th in pitching, 24th with the bats.

Quick question, drewski - did you ever post on the Boston Globe Sox forum?  

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Quick question, drewski - did you ever post on the Boston Globe Sox forum?  

Yup

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

Yup

Cool, I thought so.  Good to have you aboard here.  I posted there too, as did a bunch of others here.  

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think they've reached the stage where Sox fans who are in touch with reality ignore anything that sounds promising and key in on the signs that the payroll is staying in the 10-15 range where FSG shareholders like it.  

I think there are a lot of "promising" things about the club, but we've been given a lot of "promising" things that haven't worked out the past few years. Ownership needs skin in the game IMO. Right now, Henry is an absentee owner who has complained more about the Dodgers and Mets spending than about small market owners that don't have long term stadium plans and barely spend their revenue sharing. From the outside looking in, it gives the appearance that HE doesn't want to spend.

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The FO "should be" embarrassed by the hideous projections for the offense.

Casas under 810?

Story at 1 fWAR? 

Devers at 849? (Hasn't been that low for a full season since 2018)

Duran at 3 fWAR if he plays 150 games? 

Abreu under 750 OPS? (MLB career low projection?)

I'm smashing the over on all of those. Those projections are light AF.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Cool, I thought so.  Good to have you aboard here.  I posted there too, as did a bunch of others here.  

I didn't because I have some self respect. 

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Casas under 810?

Story at 1 fWAR? 

Devers at 849? (Hasn't been that low for a full season since 2018)

Duran at 3 fWAR if he plays 150 games? 

Abreu under 750 OPS? (MLB career low projection?)

I'm smashing the over on all of those. Those projections are light AF.

I understand.  But I'm not ruling out they may be onto something.

This is a team that OPSed .736 in August and a grotesque .654 in September.  This is an offense that was downright putrid for the last 2 months of 2024.  An offense that turned into a bunch of wind turbines.

And they did nothing about it.  Hopes rest on the kids.