A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Duran Is The Man]

1 minute ago, Larry Cook said:

There is no perfect fit for yoshida, but it is bres-slow’s job to figure out how to move him along and free up that roster spot! 

Bloom liked him so damn much, send him to St. Louis.

[Larry Cook]

19 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Bloom liked him so damn much, send him to St. Louis.

I believe the pieces exist for a trade to St. Louis. 
it is up to bres-slow to figure it out 

[harmony]

4 hours ago, notin said:

Bryce Miller gave up 15 HRs out of 21 on the road. Unless any trade for him include T-Mobile Park, he might not be the upgrade folks are expecting.

 

And as a very wise baseball sage named Steve Stone once said “Don’t look at home runs; look at home runs with men on base.”  Only ten HRs off Crawford last year came with men on base.  Bryce Miller only gave up 21 HRs, but 9 came with men on base.

 

I wouldn’t turn down Miller, but I would not bid too heavily on him. And I certainly don’t give up Mayer for him.  Sure I compare Miller to Kutter Crawford, but I’m the rare poster on these boards that defends Crawford…

This poster is a Kutter Crawford fan who witnessed two quality starts by the right-hander at T-Mobile Park in Seattle.

However, Crawford falls short of Bryce Miller’s trade value.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

There is no perfect fit for yoshida, but it is bres-slow’s job to figure out how to move him along and free up that roster spot! 

More likely,  Brez trades other players, so Yoshida becomes the best DH option, at least vs RHPs.

I would guess Abreu and DHam will be traded, perhaps even if we don't promote Campbell or Mayer.

C: Wong + _____

1B: Casas (Romy)

2B: Grissom (Rafaela/Romy)

SS: Story (Rafaela/Romy)

3B: Devers (Romy/Grissom)

LF: Duran (Ref)

CF: Rafaela (Duran)

RF: Anthony (Ref/Raf)

DH: Yoshida (Ref)

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, harmony said:

This poster is a Kutter Crawford fan who witnessed two quality starts by the right-hander at T-Mobile Park in Seattle.

However, Crawford falls short of Bryce Miller’s trade value.

I agree, and this supports the view:

Away numbers: ERA/ OPS Against/WHIP

4.07/.673/1.095 Miller (Career: 4.52/.714/1.146)

4.32/.727/1.092 Crawford (Career: 4.06/.701/1.104)

Crawford has better 2023 and career road numbers, though.

 

[Tedballgame]

5 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I believe the pieces exist for a trade to St. Louis. 
it is up to bres-slow to figure it out 

Trade? Just give him away. He can't field and he can't hit for power. He can't run. He can't throw. 

 

[Tedballgame]

Just now, Tedballgame said:

Trade? Just give him away. He can't field and he can't hit for power. He can't run. He can't throw. 

 

 

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

More likely,  Brez trades other players, so Yoshida becomes the best DH option, at least vs RHPs.

I would guess Abreu and DHam will be traded, perhaps even if we don't promote Campbell or Mayer.

C: Wong + _____

1B: Casas (Romy)

2B: Grissom (Rafaela/Romy)

SS: Story (Rafaela/Romy)

3B: Devers (Romy/Grissom)

LF: Duran (Ref)

CF: Rafaela (Duran)

RF: Anthony (Ref/Raf)

DH: Yoshida (Ref)

Besides Anthony, that's the lineup they had last year. That lineup is a last place team unless they sign 2 Cy Young winners and a Fireman Of the Year.

 

 

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, Tedballgame said:

 

Besides Anthony, that's the lineup they had last year. That lineup is a last place team unless they sign 2 Cy Young winners and a Fireman Of the Year.

 

 

We finished 3rd with this line-up minus Anthony and most of Story & Grissom.

A DHam-Grissom platoon with Campbell should improve or 2B slot.

Story + Mayer/Campbell should improve the SS slot.

Add Higgy or Jansen and our catcher O should be better.

Almost every other player "from last year" is on the upswing towards their prime years. Why do you assume no improvement?

[Larry Cook]

42 minutes ago, Tedballgame said:

Trade? Just give him away. He can't field and he can't hit for power. He can't run. He can't throw. 

 

Do you judge him based on playing hurt this year? 
I think he can hit very well and he has 20 home run power potential 

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Do you judge him based on playing hurt this year? 
I think he can hit very well and he has 20 home run power potential 

He has a career 111 OPS+.

He has value as a DH. It's just not $18M/yr value.

Once he shows he's healthy, I think we could trade him with $10-13M a year for a single A player. There is no need to waste $5-8M a year by DFA'ing him.

[Tedballgame]

32 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Do you judge him based on playing hurt this year? 
I think he can hit very well and he has 20 home run power potential 

He is a weak hitting DH. DH needs to hit 30 HRs and drive in 100.

[win red sox]

23 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Do you judge him based on playing hurt this year? 
I think he can hit very well and he has 20 home run power potential 

Yoshi has huge stretches where he is one of the best hitters in baseball.  6/24(10 games after coming off the IL) through 9/14 he had a 147 wRC+ which was 15th in MLB. 322/388/496 in that stretch.

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, Tedballgame said:

He is a weak hitting DH. DH needs to hit 30 HRs and drive in 100.

It's what you want, but maybe 3-4 teams have that, now.

Teams look to improve, sometimes with baby steps, and most teams look to do it cheaply.

All it takes is one team to think Yoshida is better than the SH they have and what it would be worth to get him as an upgrade.

When you look at the DHs from 2023-2024, Yoshida falls about in the middle in OPS. 

Probably 10-15 teams would view Yoshida as an upgrade over their DH, but they might prefer a DH who can play a position, too. My guess is maybe 5-10 teams would take him for $3-5M a year. Maybe 10-15 might take him at $1-2M a year. Just guessing. (Maybe 1-3 teams might want him at $5-7M a year, but who knows?)

[vjcsmoke]

Yoshida is a left handed bat who doesn't hit for enough power to balance out the fact that we are way too lefty leaning as a lineup. Yes he had surgery, but will that recover his power from his JP league days? Nobody knows. If we can dump his salary and get a right handed bat without giving up too much farm pieces, I'd explore that trade before the season starts.

[oldtimer]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

More likely,  Brez trades other players, so Yoshida becomes the best DH option, at least vs RHPs.

I would guess Abreu and DHam will be traded, perhaps even if we don't promote Campbell or Mayer.

C: Wong + _____

1B: Casas (Romy)

2B: Grissom (Rafaela/Romy)

SS: Story (Rafaela/Romy)

3B: Devers (Romy/Grissom)

LF: Duran (Ref)

CF: Rafaela (Duran)

RF: Anthony (Ref/Raf)

DH: Yoshida (Ref)

I believe we will and should promote both Anthony and Campbell. With those two, and in the event we also get Soto, we would have some tough decsions to make for the 2025 season and beyond. To my thinking Yoshida never was a good fit and becomes a prioity to trade. I see it as an either/or with Soto/Devers. I'm fine with either, but not both. Yes we need a short term backup catcher. And Refsnyder makes perfect sense as a backup outfielder. 

Whether Rafaela is on the active roster to start the season is open to question so who the backup utility infielders should be depends on the possibility of Soto coming to the Sox. In that regard, I question the sense of a 15 year deal for any player. Might be great for part of that time but a big liability as age sets in. Sox management needs to make wise use of their resources.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 hours ago, Tedballgame said:

He is a weak hitting DH. DH needs to hit 30 HRs and drive in 100.

Yoshida is getting stronger after his surgery. There are already pics posted of him pumping plastic, air-filled dumbbells.

[harmony]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's what you want, but maybe 3-4 teams have that, now.

Teams look to improve, sometimes with baby steps, and most teams look to do it cheaply.

All it takes is one team to think Yoshida is better than the SH they have and what it would be worth to get him as an upgrade.

When you look at the DHs from 2023-2024, Yoshida falls about in the middle in OPS. 

Probably 10-15 teams would view Yoshida as an upgrade over their DH, but they might prefer a DH who can play a position, too. My guess is maybe 5-10 teams would take him for $3-5M a year. Maybe 10-15 might take him at $1-2M a year. Just guessing. (Maybe 1-3 teams might want him at $5-7M a year, but who knows?)

Would anyone trade three years of Masastaka Yoshida at $54 million for two years of Philadelphia right-hander Taijuan Walker at $36 million (as proposed at a Phillies website)?

https://www.thegoodphight.com/2024/11/26/24306614/phillies-offseason-trade-ideas-building-depth-and-sustainability

Given the glut of designated hitters in Philadelphia, the proposal may make even less sense for the Phillies than for the Red Sox.

[Larry Cook]

3 minutes ago, harmony said:

Would anyone trade three years of Masastaka Yoshida at $54 million for two years of Philadelphia right-hander Taijuan Walker at $36 million (as proposed at a Phillies website)?

https://www.thegoodphight.com/2024/11/26/24306614/phillies-offseason-trade-ideas-building-depth-and-sustainability

Given the glut of designated hitters in Philadelphia, the proposal may make even less sense for the Phillies than for the Red Sox.

I would do this trade and send Desperate Dave 12mm for his troubles 

[mvp 78]

51 minutes ago, harmony said:

Would anyone trade three years of Masastaka Yoshida at $54 million for two years of Philadelphia right-hander Taijuan Walker at $36 million (as proposed at a Phillies website)?

https://www.thegoodphight.com/2024/11/26/24306614/phillies-offseason-trade-ideas-building-depth-and-sustainability

Given the glut of designated hitters in Philadelphia, the proposal may make even less sense for the Phillies than for the Red Sox.

Walker was one of the worst pitchers in all of baseball last year. Maybe you just throw him in the pen as the long man and hope Bailey can turn him back into a 6th man? 

[moonslav59]

I'm almost willing to take back anything with a heartbeat for Yoshida, if the money saved is used to add some value to the roster, or the player we get back has some hope of  contributing at a position of higher need.

When healthy, his "value" might be between $3M a year up to maybe $10M a year, if he is showing he can hit .780-.800.

I'm not sure about Walker. Certainly his recent numbers show he has zero or negative value, aside from the contract, but if he shows signs he can rebound, maybe he'd be worth a risk.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure about Walker. Certainly his recent numbers show he has zero or negative value, aside from the contract, but if he shows signs he can rebound, maybe he'd be worth a risk.

How's he going to show signs he can rebound?

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

How's he going to show signs he can rebound?

He started the season on the IL due to shoulder soreness. He was shutdown midseason due to blisters on his fingers as his new splitter grip wasn't working for him anymore. Maybe him being healthy and seeing a good side session where he can get that splitter low in the zone would show improvement? He's not exactly a guy you can count on. A solid return would have him resembling Kutter Crawford. Do the Sox need two of them? 

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He started the season on the IL due to shoulder soreness. He was shutdown midseason due to blisters on his fingers as his new splitter grip wasn't working for him anymore. Maybe him being healthy and seeing a good side session where he can get that splitter low in the zone would show improvement? He's not exactly a guy you can count on. A solid return would have him resembling Kutter Crawford. Do the Sox need two of them? 

Yeah, what I was really questioning was how he can show signs before we trade for him...

Not sure you can get prospective trade targets to throw side sessions for you...

I think moon just likes to fiddle with the logic center in my brain...

[notin]

13 hours ago, Tedballgame said:

 

Besides Anthony, that's the lineup they had last year. That lineup is a last place team unless they sign 2 Cy Young winners and a Fireman Of the Year.

 

 

Story barely played last year…

[notin]

33 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Walker was one of the worst pitchers in all of baseball last year. Maybe you just throw him in the pen as the long man and hope Bailey can turn him back into a 6th man? 

According to many, Yoshida in an overpaid slap-hitting DH with no footspeed.   What should the return be?

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Story barely played last year…

Story had a 790 OPS and played great defense after coming back from injury. He's going to play a full season and be above 4 bWAR. 

[notin]

31 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

How's he going to show signs he can rebound?

Practice with the Celtics?

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

According to many, Yoshida in an overpaid slap-hitting DH with no footspeed.   What should the return be?

Walker is probably DFA'able at this point. Masa potentially has value left to the right team. Masa's contract is bad, but it's not the worst in the game. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, notin said:

According to many, Yoshida in an overpaid slap-hitting DH with no footspeed.   What should the return be?

Yoshida and Walker contracts are both deep underwater.  You're basically exchanging trash and hoping the new trash yields a bit more than the former trash.  

The thing about Yoshida is he seems to be a roster clog.  Can't keep him, move Devers to first and Casas to DH while he's here.  Breslow says he's not looking to trade Casas.  Something has to give.

 

[notin]

39 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Walker was one of the worst pitchers in all of baseball last year. Maybe you just throw him in the pen as the long man and hope Bailey can turn him back into a 6th man? 

Walker is only 32 and was pretty good in 2023 and 2022.

Ifthe price is Yoshida, he’s worth the gamble.  Sometimes a bad year is just one bad year.  And I’d prefer the pitching depth over the injured DH.

 

Of course, the Phillies already have too many DHs taking the field.  Want this trade to happen?  Yoshida to Philly for Walker and Castellanos.  Dombrowski would jump at the chance to free up that much payroll and a lineup spot for Soto…