A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

How is $44M/3 more expensive than $44M/2?

I'm including $10M cash to TOr, and I'd give $10-15M more, if needed.

If I spend $200 on dinner for my family, it's not expensive according to my wife.

If I spend $200 on bourbon for myself, it's expensive according to my wife.

Masataka doesn't have the same inherent value as Gausman. The cost is similar, but not worth it. It's overly expensive to have a platoon DH on your roster unless you really value that player. I bet the Jays wouldn't value him highly.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Maybe the Sox could re-unite high school teammates Fried, Flaherty and Giolito…

I mulled this, but also the possible grudges between a trio of high school testosteronis who once competed with each other for number one status in the eyes of coaches, teammates, college scouts, pro scouts, reporters, teachers, cheerleaders, and the school mascot.

It's one thing to be dismissed by humans (comes with the badge of being a person), but no one wants to be dissed by a Wolverine -- especially one who might help you learn his instant healing powers... which all three now-older guys covet more than anything else.

[notin]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

How is $44M/3 more expensive than $44M/2?

I'm including $10M cash to TOr, and I'd give $10-15M more, if needed.

If they needed a LHH DH more than a SP, that’s one thing.  But they don’t.

 

Even if they break even financially on this deal, they still have to replace Gausman…

[notin]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If I spend $200 on dinner for my family, it's not expensive according to my wife.

If I spend $200 on bourbon for myself, it's expensive according to my wife.

Masataka doesn't have the same inherent value as Gausman. The cost is similar, but not worth it. It's overly expensive to have a platoon DH on your roster unless you really value that player. I bet the Jays wouldn't value him highly.

I get your point; your wife doesn’t value bourbon…

[mvp 78]

27 minutes ago, notin said:

I get your point; your wife doesn’t value bourbon…

She values Masataka Yoshida even less!

[notin]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

She values Masataka Yoshida even less!

Maybe if he took her out for one of those $200 dinners, she’d change her mind….

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

If they needed a LHH DH more than a SP, that’s one thing.  But they don’t.

 

Even if they break even financially on this deal, they still have to replace Gausman…

They have a lot to replace... not just a SP

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

They have a lot to replace... not just a SP

The bottom line is extremely difficult to envision a Yoshida trade, especially without knowing how much the Sox are willing to pay, let alone trying to deal Yoshida to fill a void. 
 

Even trading Yoshida for deGrom (owner $112mill over 3 years and hurt all the time, and whom Texas has shown they can win without) doesn’t seem likely.  Because despite the $60mill savings, Yoshida does little for the Rangers and if they do move deGrom in a dump, they might find a player who fits their roster better.

To me, I still think the most likely scenario is the Cardinals.  Bloom liked Yoshida at one point, and still might (and might ultimately prove correct).  Yoshida could possibly be the DH in St. Louis if they don’t re-sign Goldschmidt and instead move last years DH (Alec Burleson) to 1b, where he did log some time last year.  The wrinkle is how much they like the bat of Willson Contreras.  Contreras should never again don catching gear; he’s proven that playing the position is dangerous to him, having gotten injured in each of the past two seasons because he sits too close to the plate and been struck by bats.  That it’s happened at least twice shows how little he’s learned from it.  So he might be their primary DH.  And he’s a better hitter than Yoshida (OPS+ of 129 in the past two years compared to Yoshida’s 111).

The only hope here is if Bloom has faith that Yoshida has it in him to improve and outhit Contreras.  If Bloom thinks that way, a swap is possible.  Both players have roughly $55 mill left over the next 3 seasons.  And Contreras would be the much needed RHH DH the Sox need.

But I doubt this deal ever happens.  Not sure if Bloom is still enamored with Yoshida…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

The bottom line is extremely difficult to envision a Yoshida trade, especially without knowing how much the Sox are willing to pay, let alone trying to deal Yoshida to fill a void. 
 

Even trading Yoshida for deGrom (owner $112mill over 3 years and hurt all the time, and whom Texas has shown they can win without) doesn’t seem likely.  Because despite the $60mill savings, Yoshida does little for the Rangers and if they do move deGrom in a dump, they might find a player who fits their roster better.

To me, I still think the most likely scenario is the Cardinals.  Bloom liked Yoshida at one point, and still might (and might ultimately prove correct).  Yoshida could possibly be the DH in St. Louis if they don’t re-sign Goldschmidt and instead move last years DH (Alec Burleson) to 1b, where he did log some time last year.  The wrinkle is how much they like the bat of Willson Contreras.  Contreras should never again don catching gear; he’s proven that playing the position is dangerous to him, having gotten injured in each of the past two seasons because he sits too close to the plate and been struck by bats.  That it’s happened at least twice shows how little he’s learned from it.  So he might be their primary DH.  And he’s a better hitter than Yoshida (OPS+ of 129 in the past two years compared to Yoshida’s 111).

The only hope here is if Bloom has faith that Yoshida has it in him to improve and outhit Contreras.  If Bloom thinks that way, a swap is possible.  Both players have roughly $55 mill left over the next 3 seasons.  And Contreras would be the much needed RHH DH the Sox need.

But I doubt this deal ever happens.  Not sure if Bloom is still enamored with Yoshida…

It is likely Yoshida will not be traded, this winter, especially with surgery a strong possibility. Even if he comes back and hits .850, it might be hard to move him, at even half price. I get it.

I was trying to find a team that might want to unload a high-priced pitcher, but more likely than not, if would not be for a high-priced DH with 3 years left. If we were able to save the other team enough money, maybe they'd bite.

The other option is to search for a GM that likes Yoshida at a certain price and just pay the difference- expecting nothing in return but maybe some extra winter budget space. Moving Casas to DH and Devers to 1B cannot happen, unless Yoshida is gone or out for a year.

The more likely scenario is just hoping Yoshida does well, going forward and trading Casas. I guess, if you look at our biggest trading chips, Anthony, Campbell, Mayer and Teel might all be worth keeping over Casas. If we are going to trade a blue chipper, one could argue Casas is the odd man out. This would involve having faith in Devers at 1B and someone from Mayer, Campbell and Meidroth playing better D at 3B and hitting near what Casas gave us.

[Larry Cook]

Bres-slow mentioned the poor infield defense in his conference. Devers should be a huge topic for internal discussions 

[Randy Red Sox]

15 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

A rational front office doesn't make radical changes to a .500 team on the verge of transitioning several minor league All-Stars into the lineup.

The simplest and absolutely least expensive moves are to just make room for the new guys. 

Primarily, trade from surplus -- for example, lefty-swinging outfielders or middle infield prospects.

Breslow and Company are too smart to create new holes by dealing Casas -- with zero MLB-ready first basemen to replace him... or move Devers to 1B -- with zero MLB experience at the position, and with zero MLB-ready third basemen to replace him.

A major overhaul might make sense for a club that lost the most games in history, like the White Sox... but not for a break-even team like the Red Sox, with help already on the way.

yeah just keep plugging the gaps with low risk high reward signings till the prospects are ready.  Maybe by 2027 we can TRULY contend again.

[moonslav59]

One way of "making room" for all our top prospects is to avoid bottlenecks by having someone change a position.

Changing positions is not "radical." It happens all the way through the minors and into the bigs. It happens at age 17 and 18, in the middle of prime, or at the end of a player's career.

Right now, we have 3 major middle infielders (Story, Mayer and Campbell) plus Grissom and maybe DHam, if he can take another step up. Campbell can play OF, but probably not SS, longterm. I'm not sure any can play 3B real well, but the defensive bar is set pretty low by Devers.

Let's say we make room for Campbell in the OF. Now, we've added another player to an even bigger bottle neck, as we already have Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Anthony plus more DH types like Refsnyder & Yoshida.

We can talk about trading guys like Abreu and Yoshida, without needing much in return, or how maybe its not worth it, and we should just keep Yoshida. Maybe we trade Rafaela or 2 or 3 from Rafaela, Abreu and Yoshida, so all the kids can play, but we'd kinda have to trade all 3 or some current starter at SS, 2B or OF to get everyone a FT job. I guess we could trade Yoshida and Rafaela and go with LF Duran, CF Campbell, RF Anthony, SS Mayer and 2B Story. (Keep Devers at 3B and Casas at 1B and go with Refsnyder and Abreu at DH, but even handing Yoshida away with 75% of his deal paid off might be hard to do.

There simply is not room for everyone. We can hold a top prospect or two back, and gain more control time, but how much longer are we going to keep punting? (Believe me, I know they could easily choose another year or even two.)

I'm not sure what the best idea is, and maybe nobody knows, unless they can see into the future, but to me, it's time to put all heads together and make the toughest choice we've made in a long time, and let's hope it's not like trading Betts.

I think it is going to come down to choosing to trade one of the these big 4: Anthony, Mayer, Campbell or Casas. I'd prefer we keep Anthony and Campbell, but they might bring back a way better return.

I think Abreu is all but gone- maybe DHam, too. They both bat lefty and are right smack in the middle of bottlenecks. Trading them is not going to get anything great in return, and 2 bottlenecks will still remain. It's time to make a big trade. Who we choose to trade might be the biggest mistake we've made, other than trading Betts, since the Babe Ruth fiasco. Who we get in return is equally important, if not more so.

Make up your minds and pull the trigger. Call it "radical" or whatever, but keeping everyone while we have such a glaring need on our staff is radically dumb.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

One way of "making room" for all our top prospects is to avoid bottlenecks by having someone change a position.

Changing positions is not "radical." It happens all the way through the minors and into the bigs. It happens at age 17 and 18, in the middle of prime, or at the end of a player's career.

Right now, we have 3 major middle infielders (Story, Mayer and Campbell) plus Grissom and maybe DHam, if he can take another step up. Campbell can play OF, but probably not SS, longterm. I'm not sure any can play 3B real well, but the defensive bar is set pretty low by Devers.

Let's say we make room for Campbell in the OF. Now, we've added another player to an even bigger bottle neck, as we already have Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Anthony plus more DH types like Refsnyder & Yoshida.

We can talk about trading guys like Abreu and Yoshida, without needing much in return, or how maybe its not worth it, and we should just keep Yoshida. Maybe we trade Rafaela or 2 or 3 from Rafaela, Abreu and Yoshida, so all the kids can play, but we'd kinda have to trade all 3 or some current starter at SS, 2B or OF to get everyone a FT job. I guess we could trade Yoshida and Rafaela and go with LF Duran, CF Campbell, RF Anthony, SS Mayer and 2B Story. (Keep Devers at 3B and Casas at 1B and go with Refsnyder and Abreu at DH, but even handing Yoshida away with 75% of his deal paid off might be hard to do.

There simply is not room for everyone. We can hold a top prospect or two back, and gain more control time, but how much longer are we going to keep punting? (Believe me, I know they could easily choose another year or even two.)

I'm not sure what the best idea is, and maybe nobody knows, unless they can see into the future, but to me, it's time to put all heads together and make the toughest choice we've made in a long time, and let's hope it's not like trading Betts.

I think it is going to come down to choosing to trade one of the these big 4: Anthony, Mayer, Campbell or Casas. I'd prefer we keep Anthony and Campbell, but they might bring back a way better return.

I think Abreu is all but gone- maybe DHam, too. They both bat lefty and are right smack in the middle of bottlenecks. Trading them is not going to get anything great in return, and 2 bottlenecks will still remain. It's time to make a big trade. Who we choose to trade might be the biggest mistake we've made, other than trading Betts, since the Babe Ruth fiasco. Who we get in return is equally important, if not more so.

Make up your minds and pull the trigger. Call it "radical" or whatever, but keeping everyone while we have such a glaring need on our staff is radically dumb.

The radical move is trading Duran -- but he's the one guy who will bring back the best haul.

And I'm not even consulting a website that ranks players by assigning numerical trade values. 

Jarren Duran, All-Star MVP, was one of the top five baseball players in the world this year. He's in his prime right now, but maybe not quite young enough to be part of the core of the next great Red Sox team (only a year younger than Tyler O'Neill and Dom Smith..).

Will the Red Sox be worse without Duran, but with another good pitcher in the starting rotation, Roman Anthony in LF, and Campbell or Grissom at 2B?

 

[notin]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It is likely Yoshida will not be traded, this winter, especially with surgery a strong possibility. Even if he comes back and hits .850, it might be hard to move him, at even half price. I get it.

I was trying to find a team that might want to unload a high-priced pitcher, but more likely than not, if would not be for a high-priced DH with 3 years left. If we were able to save the other team enough money, maybe they'd bite.

The other option is to search for a GM that likes Yoshida at a certain price and just pay the difference- expecting nothing in return but maybe some extra winter budget space. Moving Casas to DH and Devers to 1B cannot happen, unless Yoshida is gone or out for a year.

The more likely scenario is just hoping Yoshida does well, going forward and trading Casas. I guess, if you look at our biggest trading chips, Anthony, Campbell, Mayer and Teel might all be worth keeping over Casas. If we are going to trade a blue chipper, one could argue Casas is the odd man out. This would involve having faith in Devers at 1B and someone from Mayer, Campbell and Meidroth playing better D at 3B and hitting near what Casas gave us.

Even if the Sox trade Casas, it hardly guarantees they move Devers to 1b.

 

I am also not so sure the Sox have labeled Casas as the “next logical step” in trade bait.  They did try to extend him a year ago for a reason

Edited October 4, 2024 by notin

[notin]

33 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The radical move is trading Duran -- but he's the one guy who will bring back the best haul.

And I'm not even consulting a website that ranks players by assigning numerical trade values. 

Jarren Duran, All-Star MVP, was one of the top five baseball players in the world this year. He's in his prime right now, but maybe not quite young enough to be part of the core of the next great Red Sox team (only a year younger than Tyler O'Neill and Dom Smith..).

Will the Red Sox be worse without Duran, but with another good pitcher in the starting rotation, Roman Anthony in LF, and Campbell or Grissom at 2B?

 

Nothing screams “we’re running a small market team!!” louder than trading a star player with 4 years of control left…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Nothing screams “we’re running a small market team!!” louder than trading a star player with 4 years of control left…

Or that there hasn't been a peep of speculation in the media of the club rewarding its hero's big season with a raise -- nor extension offer -- to make sure he's part of the next great Red Sox team.

Boston baseball may be less relevant compared to past decades, but the popularity of a star player in his prime has never seemed more tepid. Old-timers and young-timers may remember the local and national hype surrounding Yaz, Lynn/Rice, Nomar, Manny/Papi, and Mookie. 

Yaz Bread, anyone? My son saw an online ad for Duran Soap; it is for acne...

[Old Red]

47 minutes ago, notin said:

Nothing screams “we’re running a small market team!!” louder than trading a star player with 4 years of control left…

I don’t think it would scream that at all. Sell high. The Red Sox have an abundance of LHH, and Anthony is on the way sooner than later. I know the talk on here is to get rid of Abreu, but Duran would be a better chip. Like I’ve said many times that NO One should  be untouchable, and that includes Duran.

[notin]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Or that there hasn't been a peep of speculation in the media of the club rewarding its hero's big season with a raise -- nor extension offer -- to make sure he's part of the next great Red Sox team.

Boston baseball may be less relevant compared to past decades, but the popularity of a star player in his prime has never seemed more tepid. Old-timers and young-timers may remember the local and national hype surrounding Yaz, Lynn/Rice, Nomar, Manny/Papi, and Mookie. 

Yaz Bread, anyone? My son saw an online ad for Duran Soap; it is for acne...

True, although MLB likes teams to not try to steal headlines during the postseason.  I’d be surprised ifDuran’s agent wasn’t pestering Breslow to start negotiating…

[notin]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I don’t think it would scream that at all. Sell high. The Red Sox have an abundance of LHH, and Anthony is on the way sooner than later. I know the talk on here is to get rid of Abreu, but Duran would be a better chip. Like I’ve said many times that NO One should  be untouchable, and that includes Duran.

Duran is definitely a better trade chip. But that doesn’t mean he’s peaked.  And yes, trading Duran now, while certainly defensible, would be a small market move nonetheless.

But like any player, Roman Anthony included, Duran should be available “in the right trade”. We do all know that and I think people only say it nowadays to irritate Bellhorn.  It’s kind of an obvious add…

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Duran is definitely a better trade chip. But that doesn’t mean he’s peaked.  And yes, trading Duran now, while certainly defensible, would be a small market move nonetheless.

But like any player, Roman Anthony included, Duran should be available “in the right trade”. We do all know that and I think people only say it nowadays to irritate Bellhorn.  It’s kind of an obvious add…

Maybe he’s peaked, and he might get even better, and only time will tell that. The Red Sox have a surplus of LHH, and they have replacements for Duran, so I don’t see how moving him would be a small market move just like if they traded Casas, or Anthony, or Mayer. Pitching is needed, and you have to give up something good to get something good.

 

 

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Nothing screams “we’re running a small market team!!” louder than trading a star player with 4 years of control left…

Ok, but what if you were trading him for 4 years of control of another  young star player.......who pitches?

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

Ok, but what if you were trading him for 4 years of control of another  young star player.......who pitches?

Exactly! The Red Sox would be trading, because of a surplus rather it’s an IF, or an OF. It has NOTHING to do with trying to shed any salary.

[mvp 78]

53 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I don’t think it would scream that at all. Sell high. The Red Sox have an abundance of LHH, and Anthony is on the way sooner than later. I know the talk on here is to get rid of Abreu, but Duran would be a better chip. Like I’ve said many times that NO One should  be untouchable, and that includes Duran.

I agree. There's high likelihood that this was Duran's 2011 Ellsbury season. It's the one time he puts everything together for an extended period. He may have a good career, but I'm not sure he's going to be an 8 bWAR guy again.

[Bellhorn04]

46 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Maybe he’s peaked, and he might get even better, and only time will tell that. The Red Sox have a surplus of LHH, and they have replacements for Duran, so I don’t see how moving him would be a small market move just like if they traded Casas, or Anthony, or Mayer. Pitching is needed, and you have to give up something good to get something good.

 

 

We have guaranteed replacements-plural-for Duran and his 7-8 win season?

Man, our future in even better shape than I thought. 

[Bellhorn04]

What should temper anyone's enthusiasm for trading Duran is the realization that our offense turned out not to be a strength in 2024.  One of the articles from our new writers highlighted this.  

Given that, trading away offense might be pretty darn stupid.

Brez has quite a conundrum on his hands.  It's really hard to figure out what the right play would be.

 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Duran is definitely a better trade chip. But that doesn’t mean he’s peaked.  And yes, trading Duran now, while certainly defensible, would be a small market move nonetheless.

But like any player, Roman Anthony included, Duran should be available “in the right trade”. We do all know that and I think people only say it nowadays to irritate Bellhorn.  It’s kind of an obvious add…

You might actually be able to make a case that Teel is the one guy who's untouchable.  Star catchers might be the rarest commodity in baseball over its history.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We have guaranteed replacements-plural-for Duran and his 7-8 win season?

Man, our future in even better shape than I thought. 

He's going to do that next year? 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

You might actually be able to make a case that Teel is the one guy who's untouchable.

Houck? Trading their best starter would be pretty wild. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

He's going to do that next year? 

Who knows?  The point is, he was by far, not even close, the best position player on the team.  And he was injury-free.  I like his chances of still being good next year.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Houck? Trading their best starter would be pretty wild. 

Hey, this is the place for the wildest of wild speculation.