Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

One could say trading Abreu, DHam and Wink is not major, but all in one package might get us a "major" pitcher (as in a solid #3 SP or two nice set-up men.)

I don't think there's any chance those 3 get you back 2 good late inning relievers.  Late inning relievers are a pretty valuable commodity.

 

  

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I don't think there's any chance those 3 get you back 2 good late inning relievers.  Late inning relievers are a pretty valuable commodity.

 

  

Probably not, but I think people are undervaluing Abreu. The guy is having a very good year, is cheap and is under control for many more years. Some GM might really like what DHam brings. Wink is kind of a throw-in, but he's not a bad RP'er and spot starter.

[Bellhorn04]

30 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Probably not, but I think people are undervaluing Abreu. The guy is having a very good year, is cheap and is under control for many more years. Some GM might really like what DHam brings. Wink is kind of a throw-in, but he's not a bad RP'er and spot starter.

Abreu does look like an excellent trade candidate and should bring back something useful.  I think they should probably hold into DHam with all the question marks in our middle infield scenarios.

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Abreu does look like an excellent trade candidate and should bring back something useful.  I think they should probably hold into DHam with all the question marks in our middle infield scenarios.

I don't disagree, and trading DHam depends on how confident they feel in Mayer and or Campbell. Campbell is a coveted RHB, while DHam bats lefty.

I'm just thinking of guys we might trade, instead of prospects.

I'm not for trading him just for the sake of a trade. I like DHam and really like Abreu.

[notin]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't disagree, and trading DHam depends on how confident they feel in Mayer and or Campbell. Campbell is a coveted RHB, while DHam bats lefty.

I'm just thinking of guys we might trade, instead of prospects.

I'm not for trading him just for the sake of a trade. I like DHam and really like Abreu.

If the Sox trade rostered players, then it’s easiest if they are one for one deals.  Other teams can be hesitant adding too many players to the 40-man when they have roster crunch issues…

[moonslav59]

49 minutes ago, notin said:

If the Sox trade rostered players, then it’s easiest if they are one for one deals.  Other teams can be hesitant adding too many players to the 40-man when they have roster crunch issues…

Agreed, but I do think many teams would value any of the 3 I mentioned more than their #39 or #40 guy, but that is not always how it works.

Why trade something good to get a good player plus another that just slightly upgrades your #40 guy?

I do think a team like the CWS would enjoy having all 3 I mentioned. All would be starters.

[notin]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed, but I do think many teams would value any of the 3 I mentioned more than their #39 or #40 guy, but that is not always how it works.

Why trade something good to get a good player plus another that just slightly upgrades your #40 guy?

I do think a team like the CWS would enjoy having all 3 I mentioned. All would be starters.

Early in the off-season, it also is about valuing them over Rule 5 eligible players…

[mvp 78]

57 minutes ago, notin said:

If the Sox trade rostered players, then it’s easiest if they are one for one deals.  Other teams can be hesitant adding too many players to the 40-man when they have roster crunch issues…

Hard to do anything more than a 2 for 1 trade unless you're adding in non-40 man guys. Only difference would be if the Sox are really blowing it up and trading legit starting pieces that are fitting on any roster and not middle relievers and backup role players. 

[moonslav59]

Does the CWS take Teel, Abreu, DHam and Wink for Crochet? (Technically, they don't have to add Teel to the 40, so it's 3 for 1.)

How about...

2 arbs of Crochett and 3 years of Luis Roberts Jr at $55M

for

Mayer, Abreu, Winckoski, Fiits & Sandlin

[moonslav59]

If we are able to find a taker for Yoshida, could we try to sign O'Neill to be the DH? 

O'Neill is a top 7 batter vs LHPs since 2023, and maybe he could stay healthy not playing D.

I don't see many RHBs on the trade market that fit into a slot better than who we have already.

Trade Yoshida nd cash for _____. Trade Abreo & Wink for a pitcher and sign O'Neill?

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Does the CWS take Teel, Abreu, DHam and Wink for Crochet? (Technically, they don't have to add Teel to the 40, so it's 3 for 1.)

How about...

2 arbs of Crochett and 3 years of Luis Roberts Jr at $55M

for

Mayer, Abreu, Winckoski, Fiits & Sandlin

They'd say no to the first trade. They'd move Roberts I bet. 

[moonslav59]

So, as we get nearer to the end of the 2024 season, most likely on a disappointing note, once again, here is a look at the what the foundation of the 2025 40 man roster might look like:

8 Free Agents to Be: Jansen, Martin, O'Neill, Pivetta, Jansen, Garcia, Sims, Paxton

5 IL (60 Day) Players to be added over the winter: Giolito, Whitlock, Hendriks, Mata, Murphy (I'm assuming Story will be added before the season ends.

These two groups pretty much cancel each other out and leave us at 37, before making any additions and subtractions to prepare for Rule 5, and trades/signings.

28 Keepers (could trade): Duran, Devers, Houck, Casas, Story, Abreu, Rafaela, Bello, Crawford, Whitlock, Wong, Hendriks, Winckowski, Yoshida, DHam, Slaten, Criswell, Priester, Kelly, Weissert, Perales, Bernardino, I Campbell, Grissom, Guerrero, Romy G, EValdez, Refsnyder (assuming no retirement)

7 Bubble: Heineman,  Murphy, Wikelman, Booser, Sogard, Shugart, Gasper

2 DFA/Trade very likely or certain: Dalbec, Horn

Add 5-6: for Rule 5 Protection: Fulmer, Fitts, Dobbins, Jh Garcia, Monegro, Castro

Bubble Rule 5:  Bastardo, Gambrell, Hickey, Liu, Sikes

Non Rule 5 Prospects that could be added: Anthony, Mayer, Campbell, Teel, Meidroth, Sandlin (I think we hold off adding any of these players until the last minute, so I will not list any for the opening day projection.)

My Opening Day 26 with others on the 40 in parenthesis:

(*IL Giolito w Criswell as #5 and Weissert to #8 RP)

SP: Houck, Giolito*, Bello, Crawford, Priester (Fitts, Dobbins, Monegro. Perales, Wikelman)

RP: Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Kelly, Fulmer, Criswell*, Winckowski, Bernardino (Weissert*,  I Campbell, Guerrero, Booser, Murphy)

C: Wong, Heineman

1B: Casas

2B: DHam, Grissom

SS: Story, Romy (Sogard)

3B: Devers

LF: Duran (Castro)

CF: Rafaela (Jh Garcia)

RF: Abreu, Refsnyder

DH Yoshida (E Valdez)

Now, we know we will make trades and sign some FAs, and some will need to be added to the 40 man, and likely some to the 26. Personally, I think we try to trade EValdez & Wikelman, but I'm not sure other teams, who also have roster crunches are looking to add a platoon DH and struggling AA pitcher to their 40, so they may end up being DFA'd. However, neither is at the top of my DFA list.

To DFA, if no trades for them or for others that could open slots on the 40:

1. Murphy

2. Wikelman

3. Sogard (maybe Romy)

4. EValdez

5. Heinemen (but a catcher would need to be added, like Teel)

6. Castro

7. Booser

_________________________________

Here is my actual 26 man projection (not my wish list):

SP: __Add__, Houck, Bello, Crawford, Gio/Priester/Fitts/Criswell

RP: __Add__, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, __Add__, Wink, Kelly, Fulmer

C: Wong, Heineman (or a cheap add)

1B: Casas

2B: DHam- Romy or Grissom (other in AAA)

SS: Story, Sogard

3B: Devers

LF: Duran

CF: Rafaela

RF: Abreu-Ref

DH: Yoshida

I know: not very imaginative. We might add Anthony or Campbell to the opening day 40 and 26 on day one. If it's Anthony, I think we trade Abreu or Yoshida. If It's Campbell, maybe we trade DHam or Grissom, or keep both for minor league depth. We could trade to fill a pitching slot, listed above or just add another pitcher, or trade for a RHB to play RF.

 

 

[Behindenemylines]

Pitching, pitching, and more pitching is where the Sox need to focus on this off season. I believe Bello, Houck and Crawford are the only 2024 starters to be part of the 2025 staff. That is if none of them are part of a trade to get a number one. The goal this off season is to get a legit ace and another reliable starter that can give them innings. Whether they spend in free agency or trade, an ace and another started are needed. Do not know what you will get from  Giolito,  and Whitlocks days as a starter are done, The Sox have money if ownership is willing to spend, or they can use some of the rising youth with position players that the Sox seem to be loaded with with  to make a trade. Without fixing the pitching the Sox will remain a .500 team in 2025,

[Bellhorn04]

47 minutes ago, Behindenemylines said:

Pitching, pitching, and more pitching is where the Sox need to focus on this off season. I believe Bello, Houck and Crawford are the only 2024 starters to be part of the 2025 staff. That is if none of them are part of a trade to get a number one. The goal this off season is to get a legit ace and another reliable starter that can give them innings. Whether they spend in free agency or trade, an ace and another started are needed. Do not know what you will get from  Giolito,  and Whitlocks days as a starter are done, The Sox have money if ownership is willing to spend, or they can use some of the rising youth with position players that the Sox seem to be loaded with with  to make a trade. Without fixing the pitching the Sox will remain a .500 team in 2025,

I'm very skeptical they're going to do what it takes to acquire an ace this offseason.  Because they're basically in the same position they were last offseason.  It's still a .500 team with a promising farm and a ton of question marks.  I think they are going to kick the can down the road one more time and treat 2025 as another year of evaluating where they are.  If a lot goes right in 2025 they might finally feel motivated to make those big moves.

[notin]

56 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm very skeptical they're going to do what it takes to acquire an ace this offseason.  Because they're basically in the same position they were last offseason.  It's still a .500 team with a promising farm and a ton of question marks.  I think they are going to kick the can down the road one more time and treat 2025 as another year of evaluating where they are.  If a lot goes right in 2025 they might finally feel motivated to make those big moves.

I did like my proposed Mayer/Abreu/Fitts package for Skubal.  But Detroit at 71-71 might not be ready to sell yet.  This isn’t some small market Tampa team dealing off 50% of their arb eligible players every year.  Sure Detroit, like KC and Minny, is propped up by a 9-1 record vs the White Sox, but they can probably count on that next year as well.  I think Skubal might be less available than we hope.

Crochet can still be had.  Freddy Peralta might be available. (And they SS Willie Adames is a free agent after this year.  Hmmm..)

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, notin said:

I did like my proposed Mayer/Abreu/Fitts package for Skubal.  But Detroit at 71-71 might not be ready to sell yet.  This isn’t some small market Tampa team dealing off 50% of their arb eligible players every year.  Sure Detroit, like KC and Minny, is propped up by a 9-1 record vs the White Sox, but they can probably count on that next year as well.  I think Skubal might be less available than we hope.

Crochet can still be had.  Freddy Peralta might be available. (And they SS Willie Adames is a free agent after this year.  Hmmm..)

Yeah, I'm not sure where the stories about Skubal being available came from.  

[Bellhorn04]

Crochet has some question marks attached to him too because he's not really a proven quantity.  The White Sox have been limiting his innings the second half of the season.  Since the ASB he has only pitched 24.2 innings, with an ERA of 6.20 and OPSa of .907. 

[notin]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Crochet has some question marks attached to him too because he's not really a proven quantity.  The White Sox have been limiting his innings the second half of the season.  Since the ASB he has only pitched 24.2 innings, with an ERA of 6.20 and OPSa of .907. 

Fits in with our youthful pitching core.

If BTV is any judge (and they often are) his value of 40.2 is well below that of Anthony and Mayer so he might be had for less.  But there are risks.  Stil he is worth looking into.

Peralta has two team options left, both very friendly $8mill ones at that.  Most likely, Milwaukee keeps him for another run, especially since Woodruff comes back next year.  But they might (emphasize “might”) be willing to move him early for a player like Mayer.

Beyond these two, the trade market for top starting pitchers is a mystery to me right now.  And I’m not even sure about Peralta…

[moonslav59]

I don't think we can just try to incrementally improve our pitching and pitching depth, much longer. Sooner of later, we need to take a plunge or make a splash- pardon the cliches. 

Since last season, we tried to improve our rotation dependability (adding Gio while subtracting Sale) while beefing up the farm (bats for arms with Yorke> Priester & Dugo for 2 pitching prospects- Fitts & Judice + a vet,  and also the Sandlin deal) and pen depth (adding Slaten, Weissert, I C ampbell & some minor league add-ons.) I don't want to get into the lack of success, but I do think an effort was made.

Apparently, we also made changes to our pitching prospect development system and how we develop plans for our big league pitchers to maximize their potential. (Again, I'm not sure how successful we were, especially with our MLB staff collapsing before our eyes.)

We need to act boldly and soon! I can't emphasize this enough. To me, upgrading our pitching staff is such a high priority, no everyday position upgrade comes even close to being a top 5 need, except maybe swapping out a LHB everyday player for a RHB everyday player, but even then, I'd rather trade Abreu for a pitcher than a RHB clone of himself. (We can use Anthony in RF.)

I do not think trading Dugo and Yorke for pitching comes close to the level of moves I think needs to be made, plus we also traded 2 young pitchers for 1 year of O'Neill, which offsets my point, a little bit on what we have already done.

We've had a full year to evaluate Rafaela, Abreu, DHam, Wong, Duran and some pitchers. We have a better idea about what we can expect from them, as well as our near MLB ready prospects. It's decision time, folks! I hope to hell, JH & Co. don't think that time is next winter. It should be now, and I am not a kind of person who thinks only about "gimmie, gimmie, gimmie NOW!"

We have several positions where we have duplicated value, and while depth is important, especially at SS on our team, we need to pick some lanes and go with it. We simply have to trade some bats for arms and on a higher and deeper scale than just Dugo and Yorke.

I break it down like this:

OF is our strength, and by 100 miles- not just in starter value, but also on the bench and on the farm. I've often joked about us having 10 guys whose best position is LF or should be LF, someday. To me, Duran has to be viewed as the keep at all cost OF'er. I don't see trading Rafaela, although Duran is now a plus CF'er, too. Rafaela bats RH'd and is GG caliber in a difficult Fenway CF. Although I really like Abreu, I think keeping Rafaela, who is locked up long term over Abreu. With Anthony looking like the best prospect we've had in a very long time, it makes sense to trade Abreu or go for broke on obtaining a young, controllable ace by doing the unthinkable: trading Anthony. I hope Refsnyder plays one more year, but even if he does not, we can afford to trade an OF'er. If we have to, we could play Campbell in CF or EValdez in LF, for emergency depth. I hate hurting our OF depth, so much, but to me OF depth takes a back seat to our massive need for better and more pitchers.

Corner IF: Devers and Casas are just about all we have, here. They both probably are better suited for 1B or DH, but we can't afford to mess with that, right now, at least for as long as Yoshida is here and healthy. Meidroth might be the only real depth we have, with Romy being a replacement level 3B/1Bman. We can't afford to trade from here.

Catcher: Our catchers ranked 30th in defense. I did not expect that. I thought Wong would improve and McGuire would be his normal decent defender. We added Jansen, late, but the fact is, we suck on catcher D. Teel offers some hope at fixing that, but likely not until 2026. Even if he plays, a lot in 2025, we should not expect great D from him. He will also need to learn his pitchers. I can't see trading from here.

Middle IF: Here is where I see a lot of mediocre players- many with some clear strengths but also with clear weaknesses:

Story has major health issues but is a great defender at SS or 2B. His bats is largely unknown, right now, but he did have a long history of being pretty good, even on teh road when with COL.

DHam has great speed and base-running skills and hitting .724 after May 17th might be sustainable, but his SS defense is bad enough to think he should never play there, unless 2-3 guys are hurt or PH for. He'd be a nice platoon 2Bman, IMO (.729 v RHPs, this year.)

Grissom is someone many have given up on, and he really has not hit the ball hard for almost 2 seasons, now. His glove at 2B might end up okay, but who knows with this guy?

Romy & Sogard are replacement level stop-gap types. EValdez rates to have a plus bat, over time, but his defense is so horrific, they demoted him in the middle of a .900 batting stretch. He is probably a LF'er/DH type that may only be good in a platoon role. That is not a high value trade candidate.

Campbell and Mayer offer some great hopes and promise. I mean off-the-charts great. We also have some farther away prospects showing a lot of promise on O & D. We could also use Meidroth at 2B and maybe SS in a pinch. Rafaela offers 26 man roster depth, but I truly believe we should not count on starting him at middle IF, unless 2 guys are out... better to plan on that being 3 guys out, IMO.

How much trade value does DHam have? I'd say not much, and probably not worth trading, this winter, unless we could get a decent pen arm for him. That leaves trading Mayer or Campbell, and I think we all want to keep Campbell. I'm not sure how much trade value Mayer has seen drop off, but he's still a big trade chip, IMO.

In short, we need to trade one from Anthony or Abreu and maybe Mayer, too, in order to really jump the pitching to where we need to be. I doubt we trade Anthony and Mayer, so the two most like choices, to me would be packages like these:

A. Mayer, Abreu and one or two from Sandlin, Fitts, E R-C)

B. Anthony, DHam and one or two like above.

I prefer choice A by a long shot, but choice B likely gets us a better or longer controlled ace.

In theory, I think we need to do this PLUS sign a top SP'er and a couple pen arms.

MINIMUM!

We could maybe do a little less and still make the playoffs, but to be playoff faves, I think my suggestions are the bare minimum needed.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Fits in with our youthful pitching core.

If BTV is any judge (and they often are) his value of 40.2 is well below that of Anthony and Mayer so he might be had for less.  But there are risks.  Stil he is worth looking into.

Peralta has two team options left, both very friendly $8mill ones at that.  Most likely, Milwaukee keeps him for another run, especially since Woodruff comes back next year.  But they might (emphasize “might”) be willing to move him early for a player like Mayer.

Beyond these two, the trade market for top starting pitchers is a mystery to me right now.  And I’m not even sure about Peralta…

That is some scary news on Crochet, plus he has only 2 years of control.

[Nick]

According to Cot's, Sox are $106M under the salary cap for 2025.

Baked in to that number are following players.

Pitchers, Giolito, Bello, Whitlock and Liam

Position players, Devers (3B), Story (SS), Rafaela (CF), Yoshida (DH).

You have 3 Arbitration 1 players in following; Houck (1/3), Kutter (1/4) and Duran (1/4). I'm going to guess their combined salary will be less than $20M. 

Thus we're now down to $86M in spendable money relative to the cap, assuming that is our budget.

We also have following pre-arbitration players that will cost less than $1M.

Wong (C), Casas (1B), D Ham (2B) or equivalent,  and Abreu (RF) for say $4M. 

We now have all the positions covered (will add 4 utility players).

Our starting rotation (covered by payroll) has Bello, Kutter, Giolito and Whitlock. 

By my count, assuming all the extras, 4 positional and 9 pitchers will have a starting cost of $13M.

Thus we are left with $69M to upgrade our 'existent' 26 man roster. 

Surely that's enough money to acquire 4 quality pitchers.

And that's without making any trades. Come on JH. Open your wallet.

 

 

 

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, Nick said:

According to Cot's, Sox are $106M under the salary cap for 2025.

Baked in to that number are following players.

Pitchers, Giolito, Bello, Whitlock and Liam

Position players, Devers (3B), Story (SS), Rafaela (CF), Yoshida (DH).

You have 3 Arbitration 1 players in following; Houck (1/3), Kutter (1/4) and Duran (1/4). I'm going to guess their combined salary will be less than $20M. 

Thus we're now down to $86M in spendable money relative to the cap, assuming that is our budget.

We also have following pre-arbitration players that will cost less than $1M.

Wong (C), Casas (1B), D Ham (2B) or equivalent,  and Abreu (RF) for say $4M. 

We now have all the positions covered (will add 4 utility players).

Our starting rotation (covered by payroll) has Bello, Kutter, Giolito and Whitlock. 

By my count, assuming all the extras, 4 positional and 9 pitchers will have a starting cost of $13M.

Thus we are left with $69M to upgrade our 'existent' 26 man roster. 

Surely that's enough money to acquire 4 quality pitchers.

And that's without making any trades. Come on JH. Open your wallet.

 

 

 

I don’t know why it’s often pondered on here on where the Red Sox are in regards to the salary cap like that is how much money the Red Sox are going to spend up to. Did JH say that’s what he’s willing to do?

[Bellhorn04]

9 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I don’t know why it’s often pondered on here on where the Red Sox are in regards to the salary cap like that is how much money the Red Sox are going to spend up to. Did JH say that’s what he’s willing to do?

Yeah, we really don't know any more.  I was shocked when Kennedy announced in January that he expected the 2024 payroll to be lower than the 2023 payroll, when there were still a ton of free agents left on the market.  

There's stuff going on behind the scenes that none of us know about.  But something has definitely changed.  

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, we really don't know any more.  I was shocked when Kennedy announced in January that he expected the 2024 payroll to be lower than the 2023 payroll, when there were still a ton of free agents left on the market.  

There's stuff going on behind the scenes that none of us know about.  But something has definitely changed.  

That’s what I’ve been saying for the last two years when others on here keep  bringing up JH past spending habits that this is not the same JH anymore.

[dgalehouse]

   Garrett Crochet gets an awful lot of attention for a guy who is 9-17 for his career. I know, I know, wins don't matter. Maybe that's a good thing because this guy has not been a winner.  Is anyone still weeping because the Sox didn't sign " Monty" last winter ?  

[moonslav59]

57 minutes ago, Nick said:

According to Cot's, Sox are $106M under the salary cap for 2025.

Baked in to that number are following players.

Pitchers, Giolito, Bello, Whitlock and Liam

Position players, Devers (3B), Story (SS), Rafaela (CF), Yoshida (DH).

You have 3 Arbitration 1 players in following; Houck (1/3), Kutter (1/4) and Duran (1/4). I'm going to guess their combined salary will be less than $20M. 

Thus we're now down to $86M in spendable money relative to the cap, assuming that is our budget.

We also have following pre-arbitration players that will cost less than $1M.

Wong (C), Casas (1B), D Ham (2B) or equivalent,  and Abreu (RF) for say $4M. 

We now have all the positions covered (will add 4 utility players).

Our starting rotation (covered by payroll) has Bello, Kutter, Giolito and Whitlock. 

By my count, assuming all the extras, 4 positional and 9 pitchers will have a starting cost of $13M.

Thus we are left with $69M to upgrade our 'existent' 26 man roster. 

Surely that's enough money to acquire 4 quality pitchers.

And that's without making any trades. Come on JH. Open your wallet.

 

 

 

Agreed, and even if JH keeps the budget $10M under the line, we should have $50-55M to spend on 4 pitchers. If we trade for one, $55M for 3 pitchers can get  some of the best FA pitchers on the market: $28-30M on SP1, $13-15M on a close and $10-14M on another SP.

It seems simple.

Last year, many were worried about the offense, and the loss of Turner, Duvall and the hole at middle infield, plus doubts about catcher and the OF. We were also looking at Dugo's $9M arb and paying Sale to maybe not pitch, again. On top of that, we were losing 28 starts by Paxton and Kluber and somehow preventing the repeat of another 16 starts by our pen or scrubs.

This year, our offense looks all set, and we could even afford to trade from our everyday player depth. That's a huge relief for this winter's plans, compared to last winter's, although we basically spent nothing on the O by replacing Dugo with O'Neill.

With the pitching, we ended up not just needing to replace the 35 starts by Paxton, Kluber, openers and scrubs, we ended up subtracting Sale's 20 GS from 2023. That's 55!

Even assuming Gio helps replace some of those 55 from 2023 in 2025, we also lose Pivetta and our two best RP'ers from 2023-2024 (Jansen & Martin.) We simply need 4 really good to excellent pitchers added just to meet the gap caused by the 2023 swing and misses plus losing 3 of our better pitchers, this coming winter (Pivetta, Jansen & Martin.) We need 3 just to replace them, plus at least one for the gap we left after 2022's season.

I'd like to see us add 5, but 4 quality ones should be close to enough.

By adding 2 SP'ers plus the eventual return by Gio, we force Whit to the pen and replace Pivetta's inconsistencies as a SP'er. Adding Whit, and then maybe Crawford, when Gio returns helps improve the pen, especially since both rate to be more than 1 inning pitchers. Add a closer and decent set-up man to go with the addition of Hendriks and maybe a full year from Slaten and we should be fine. Having Priester, Fitts, Criswell and maybe Dobbins as deep rotation depth is another added value to our 2025 pitching.

SP1 _____

SP2 Houck

SP3_____

SP4 Bello

SP5 Crawford then Gio

SP depth: (Crawford) Criswell, Priester, Fitts, Dobbins or spot starts by Wink

Closer _____

Set Up _____

Set Up Hendriks

RP4 Slaten

RP5 Whitlock

RP6 (Crawford) Winckowski

RP7 (Wink) Bernardino

RP8 (Bernardino) Fulmer

RP depth: (Bernardino) Weissert, Kelly, I Campbell, Booser, Guerrero,  Murphy, Mata, Hord, Shugart (SP'ers converted)

This looks fine, to me.

 

 

[moonslav59]

34 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, we really don't know any more.  I was shocked when Kennedy announced in January that he expected the 2024 payroll to be lower than the 2023 payroll, when there were still a ton of free agents left on the market.  

There's stuff going on behind the scenes that none of us know about.  But something has definitely changed.  

It's okay to ponder and maybe hope we spend the same as 2024, at minimum, but I think expecting us to do it just asking for a letdown,

[Duran Is The Man]

41 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, we really don't know any more.  I was shocked when Kennedy announced in January that he expected the 2024 payroll to be lower than the 2023 payroll, when there were still a ton of free agents left on the market.  

There's stuff going on behind the scenes that none of us know about.  But something has definitely changed.  

Henry having money problems?

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

   Garrett Crochet gets an awful lot of attention for a guy who is 9-17 for his career. I know, I know, wins don't matter. Maybe that's a good thing because this guy has not been a winner.  Is anyone still weeping because the Sox didn't sign " Monty" last winter ?  

Imanaga was 0-0 before last year. Lugo was close to .500 as a SP'er, before '24. Flaherty, too.

I guess we should have signed Severino or big "winners" like Paxton.

[Maxbialystock]

18 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

So, as we get nearer to the end of the 2024 season, most likely on a disappointing note, once again, here is a look at the what the foundation of the 2025 40 man roster might look like:

8 Free Agents to Be: Jansen, Martin, O'Neill, Pivetta, Jansen, Garcia, Sims, Paxton

5 IL (60 Day) Players to be added over the winter: Giolito, Whitlock, Hendriks, Mata, Murphy (I'm assuming Story will be added before the season ends.

These two groups pretty much cancel each other out and leave us at 37, before making any additions and subtractions to prepare for Rule 5, and trades/signings.

28 Keepers (could trade): Duran, Devers, Houck, Casas, Story, Abreu, Rafaela, Bello, Crawford, Whitlock, Wong, Hendriks, Winckowski, Yoshida, DHam, Slaten, Criswell, Priester, Kelly, Weissert, Perales, Bernardino, I Campbell, Grissom, Guerrero, Romy G, EValdez, Refsnyder (assuming no retirement)

7 Bubble: Heineman,  Murphy, Wikelman, Booser, Sogard, Shugart, Gasper

2 DFA/Trade very likely or certain: Dalbec, Horn

Add 5-6: for Rule 5 Protection: Fulmer, Fitts, Dobbins, Jh Garcia, Monegro, Castro

Bubble Rule 5:  Bastardo, Gambrell, Hickey, Liu, Sikes

Non Rule 5 Prospects that could be added: Anthony, Mayer, Campbell, Teel, Meidroth, Sandlin (I think we hold off adding any of these players until the last minute, so I will not list any for the opening day projection.)

My Opening Day 26 with others on the 40 in parenthesis:

(*IL Giolito w Criswell as #5 and Weissert to #8 RP)

SP: Houck, Giolito*, Bello, Crawford, Priester (Fitts, Dobbins, Monegro. Perales, Wikelman)

RP: Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Kelly, Fulmer, Criswell*, Winckowski, Bernardino (Weissert*,  I Campbell, Guerrero, Booser, Murphy)

C: Wong, Heineman

1B: Casas

2B: DHam, Grissom

SS: Story, Romy (Sogard)

3B: Devers

LF: Duran (Castro)

CF: Rafaela (Jh Garcia)

RF: Abreu, Refsnyder

DH Yoshida (E Valdez)

Now, we know we will make trades and sign some FAs, and some will need to be added to the 40 man, and likely some to the 26. Personally, I think we try to trade EValdez & Wikelman, but I'm not sure other teams, who also have roster crunches are looking to add a platoon DH and struggling AA pitcher to their 40, so they may end up being DFA'd. However, neither is at the top of my DFA list.

To DFA, if no trades for them or for others that could open slots on the 40:

1. Murphy

2. Wikelman

3. Sogard (maybe Romy)

4. EValdez

5. Heinemen (but a catcher would need to be added, like Teel)

6. Castro

7. Booser

_________________________________

Here is my actual 26 man projection (not my wish list):

SP: __Add__, Houck, Bello, Crawford, Gio/Priester/Fitts/Criswell

RP: __Add__, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, __Add__, Wink, Kelly, Fulmer

C: Wong, Heineman (or a cheap add)

1B: Casas

2B: DHam- Romy or Grissom (other in AAA)

SS: Story, Sogard

3B: Devers

LF: Duran

CF: Rafaela

RF: Abreu-Ref

DH: Yoshida

I know: not very imaginative. We might add Anthony or Campbell to the opening day 40 and 26 on day one. If it's Anthony, I think we trade Abreu or Yoshida. If It's Campbell, maybe we trade DHam or Grissom, or keep both for minor league depth. We could trade to fill a pitching slot, listed above or just add another pitcher, or trade for a RHB to play RF.

 

 

You have no peer in laydowns like the above.  That said, the biggest shortcoming--my opinion--is the Sox need to fix the righty bat issue.  It's now almost universally known they simply can't hit lefty pitchers.   Their current OPS vs righties is .764 and against lefties--with O'Neill and Ref both in those lineups--.716.