Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

The Yankees do have a clear edge over the Sox in team ERA,  3.80 to 4.17.   There are many different stats you can choose to measure a pitching staff. Choose whichever you like. I prefer ERA to WHIP simply because games are decided by runs scored , not the number of baserunners. A baserunner who doesn't score is soon forgotten.  I don't have any desire to delve into the more advanced stats involving +,- or x , etc.   Keeping it simple, the team who allows fewer runs to score wins the game. 

How about SIERA? (Takes the fielding away)

3.92 BOS & TBR

3.99 NYY & BAL

4.21 TOR

 

ERA- has NYY 94, BOS 97, BAL 98, TBR 100, TOR 108 (park factor, defnse and strength of opp)

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

14 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

The Yankees do have a clear edge over the Sox in team ERA,  3.80 to 4.17.   There are many different stats you can choose to measure a pitching staff. Choose whichever you like. I prefer ERA to WHIP simply because games are decided by runs scored , not the number of baserunners. A baserunner who doesn't score is soon forgotten.  I don't have any desire to delve into the more advanced stats involving +,- or x , etc.   Keeping it simple, the team who allows fewer runs to score wins the game. 

Both WHIP (the Hits, anyway) and ERA can be inflated by defenses with no range. Of course, it's also a hit sometimes when a pitcher gives up a rocket right at a defender, who barely ducks in time to save his own skin.

My only problem with ERA is that it's not affected by pitcher errors. I understand runs that result from Es are not "earned" against the pitcher, but playing defense is also part of the pitcher "position" -- he's got to make the pitches and the plays to earn his stats.

[dgalehouse]

I know. There are a million variables. You could study it all and go on all day about it. How many great plays prevented runs from scoring ? How many errors could have been scored as hits and vice versa ?  Stolen bases. Good baserunning or bad baserunning.  What was the catch probability ? And so forth and so on. I just try to keep it simple. The whole object of any game is to score more runs than you give up. Do that and you win the game. Win enough games and you have a parade. 

[dgalehouse]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Both WHIP (the Hits, anyway) and ERA can be inflated by defenses with no range. Of course, it's also a hit sometimes when a pitcher gives up a rocket right at a defender, who barely ducks in time to save his own skin.

My only problem with ERA is that it's not affected by pitcher errors. I understand runs that result from Es are not "earned" against the pitcher, but playing defense is also part of the pitcher "position" -- he's got to make the pitches and the plays to earn his stats.

Sure . No stat is perfect. They all have flaws. Here is an extreme example: Pitcher A gives up a leadoff double, walks the next two batters, then gets a strikeout, then a double play ball. His WHIP is 3.00 . But his ERA is O.OO.   Pitcher B strikes out the first two batters. Then gives up a home run. Then, another strikeout. His WHIP is 1.00 . But his ERA is 9.00.  There are so many metrics you can look at if you want to.  I am just not interested in it. Just trying to keep it as simple as possible while realizing that it is a team game and all pitchers depend on the fielders. 

[notin]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Both WHIP (the Hits, anyway) and ERA can be inflated by defenses with no range. Of course, it's also a hit sometimes when a pitcher gives up a rocket right at a defender, who barely ducks in time to save his own skin.

My only problem with ERA is that it's not affected by pitcher errors. I understand runs that result from Es are not "earned" against the pitcher, but playing defense is also part of the pitcher "position" -- he's got to make the pitches and the plays to earn his stats.

Not a big fan of ERA, but I use it because it’s easily grasped by all fans.  Yes, there are non- pitcher factors that can heavily influence it in some cases.  Also, sometimes it’s easy to miss how small the differences really are.  Like if a pitcher has 150 IP, each earned run adds 0.06 to his ERA.  So if two SP each have 150 IP, and one has an ERA of 3.64 and the second has an ERA of 4.00, we look at the first one as being better sometimes much better.  But really they only differ by one earned run per month.  That difference could easily be attributable to better defense and/or a better bullpen or even questionable decisions by the official scorer.  Or any combination of the three…

[moonslav59]

If we bring the sample size down to 170 PAs, so we can include Casas and Romy, we get just over 370 MLB players, which is about 12 per team. Here is where out batters rank in OPS:

17. Devers .897

22.  O'Neill .871

24. Duran .866

35. Abreu .830

66. Ref .791

84. Yoshida .776

85. Wong .774

88. Casas .772

90. Romy .770

That's 9 batters in the top third tier of 270 batters (9 per team) and top 25% of all batters with 170+ PAs (372.)

Others:

.706 D Smith #183 (top 50%)

.697 DHam #195 (top 55%)

.684 Rafaela #225 (top 60%)

.669 E Valdez #245 (top 65%)

 

 

[moonslav59]

Now, if the sample size is 300 PAs, it is 260 batters (almost 9 per team or a line-up x 30 teams.)

4 in top 1/9th: 14. Devers, 18. O'Neill, 20. Duran, 29. Abreu

1 in the second 9th: 56. Refsnyder

2 in the 3rd- 9th: 70. Yoshida, 71. Wong

164. DHam

 187. Rafaela

[moonslav59]

How's this one:

Trade: Marcelo Mayer (SS prospect,) Wilyer Abreu (Pre-Arb,) Yoshida DH ($18M x 3 plus $6M per 3 years) & David Sandlin (RHP prospect)

For: Bryce Miller RHP (Pre-Arb,)  Victor Robles OF (RHB at $3.5M '25, $4.5M '26 w $9M option & $500K buyout '27,) & Mitch Garver (RHB DH at $11.5M '25 w option at $12M w $1M buyout '26)

_______________________________

Sign: Jack Flaherty, Danny Jansen & Paul Sewald

_______________________________

 

[notin]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

How's this one:

Trade: Marcelo Mayer (SS prospect,) Wilyer Abreu (Pre-Arb,) Yoshida DH ($18M x 3 plus $6M per 3 years) & David Sandlin (RHP prospect)

For: Bryce Miller RHP (Pre-Arb,)  Victor Robles OF (RHB at $3.5M '25, $4.5M '26 w $9M option & $500K buyout '27,) & Mitch Garver (RHB DH at $11.5M '25 w option at $12M w $1M buyout '26)

_______________________________

Sign: Jack Flaherty, Danny Jansen & Paul Sewald

_______________________________

 

You’re over complicating things.  Who needs Robles?

Mayer ($65mill) and Yoshida (-$21mill) for Miller ($54mill) and Garver (-$11mill).  Works on BTV.

 

But would Seattle do it?  Do they even need Mayer?

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, notin said:

You’re over complicating things.  Who needs Robles?

Mayer ($65mill) and Yoshida (-$21mill) for Miller ($54mill) and Garver (-$11mill).  Works on BTV.

 

But would Seattle do it?  Do they even need Mayer?

I was just thinking a RHB, like you were with bringing O'Neill back, and I don't have any faith in Garver. He was just a money and roster spot part of the trade for SEA.

[notin]

35 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I was just thinking a RHB, like you were with bringing O'Neill back, and I don't have any faith in Garver. He was just a money and roster spot part of the trade for SEA.

Before last year, I saw numerous posts from Mariner fans about Garver’s terrible history in Seattle (.514 OPS). He was awful there (.609) and on the road (.614).  But he did hit lefties last year (.753) and for his career (.859), and has a career .797 at Fenway.

If the Sox move Yoshida, Garver might be a good (re: tolerable) target…

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, notin said:

Before last year, I saw numerous posts from Mariner fans about Garver’s terrible history in Seattle (.514 OPS). He was awful there (.609) and on the road (.614).  But he did hit lefties last year (.753) and for his career (.859), and has a career .797 at Fenway.

If the Sox move Yoshida, Garver might be a good (re: tolerable) target…

Key word is "might."

He's not getting any younger.

[Nick]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Key word is "might."

He's not getting any younger.

Hey Moon can you start a new thread just for discussing the playoff situation?

 

The schedule, the contenders. Looks like there are 5 teams vying for 2 spots or 4 teams for 1.

 

Thanks.

[notin]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Key word is "might."

He's not getting any younger.

Anyone can have a bad year, but even in his bad year he did one thing right (hit lefties) the Sox need.  Could he be an upgrade over Yoshida?  And one that doesn’t involve spending?  It’s a one year gamble  that is probably worth taking.

 

Even you included him.  Well the Sox aren’t going to take him and DFA/release him.  If they do get him, he will be a RHH bat in their lineup.  It’s the same deal, but without the Sox getting a player (Robles) they don’t need and keeping a player (Abreu) they do, either on their lineup or in part of another deal.

 

To me, the only question is, would Seattle want Mayer.  I have my doubts since all he does is make their SS position cheaper and probably doesn’t address their offense.  Really, this deal probably needs a third team (Milwaukee?) that needs a SS and can send them a cheap and useful bat or two…

 

 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Anyone can have a bad year, but even in his bad year he did one thing right (hit lefties) the Sox need.  Could he be an upgrade over Yoshida?  And one that doesn’t involve spending?  It’s a one year gamble  that is probably worth taking.

 

Even you included him.  Well the Sox aren’t going to take him and DFA/release him.  If they do get him, he will be a RHH bat in their lineup.  It’s the same deal, but without the Sox getting a player (Robles) they don’t need and keeping a player (Abreu) they do, either on their lineup or in part of another deal.

 

To me, the only question is, would Seattle want Mayer.  I have my doubts since all he does is make their SS position cheaper and probably doesn’t address their offense.  Really, this deal probably needs a third team (Milwaukee?) that needs a SS and can send them a cheap and useful bat or two…

 

 

I included him as an offset for Yoshida's contract and realized there was hope he might hit for us.

I'd rather go with a Ref & Abreu platoon, maybe even Ref-DHam or Ref-EValdez DH.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, Nick said:

Hey Moon can you start a new thread just for discussing the playoff situation?

 

The schedule, the contenders. Looks like there are 5 teams vying for 2 spots or 4 teams for 1.

 

Thanks.

I'll do one, later today/tonight.

[notin]

38 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I included him as an offset for Yoshida's contract and realized there was hope he might hit for us.

I'd rather go with a Ref & Abreu platoon, maybe even Ref-DHam or Ref-EValdez DH.

Well, you needlessly included Abreu in the trade.  Simplify it and that’s an option.

If BTV is accurate, the simplest and most obvious trade the Sox would do is Kristian Campbell (38.6) to the White Sox for Garrett Crochet (39.3).  Sox get their new best SP and don’t give up any of the “Big 3” they value so heavily.

If the Sox are going to move Yoshida (-21), Mitch Garver (-11) does make a good target since Seattle would no longer need him, and he does have two skills Boston does need (Hitting lefties and hitting at Fenway.) They could either pay the $10mill difference or include an equally valued player (David Hamilton at 11.4? There are probably others.). I recommend the cash, but the Sox are not exactly charitable these days.   Either way, Garver does make more sense for Boston and Refsnyder might not be an option.  Although this trade doesn’t eliminate him from consideration either. They still need a 4th outfielder regardless…

 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Well, you needlessly included Abreu in the trade.  Simplify it and that’s an option.

If BTV is accurate, the simplest and most obvious trade the Sox would do is Kristian Campbell (38.6) to the White Sox for Garrett Crochet (39.3).  Sox get their new best SP and don’t give up any of the “Big 3” they value so heavily.

If the Sox are going to move Yoshida (-21), Mitch Garver (-11) does make a good target since Seattle would no longer need him, and he does have two skills Boston does need (Hitting lefties and hitting at Fenway.) They could either pay the $10mill difference or include an equally valued player (David Hamilton at 11.4).  I recommend the cash, but the Sox are not exactly charitable these days.   Either way, Garver does make more sense for Boston and Refsnyder might not be an option.  Although this trade doesn’t eliminate him from consideration either. They still need a 4th outfielder regardless…

 

Campbell is their 2nd best prospect. Pass. 

[mvp 78]

With Garver, he's typically unhealthy, unproductive or both. 

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Well, you needlessly included Abreu in the trade.  Simplify it and that’s an option.

If BTV is accurate, the simplest and most obvious trade the Sox would do is Kristian Campbell (38.6) to the White Sox for Garrett Crochet (39.3).  Sox get their new best SP and don’t give up any of the “Big 3” they value so heavily.

If the Sox are going to move Yoshida (-21), Mitch Garver (-11) does make a good target since Seattle would no longer need him, and he does have two skills Boston does need (Hitting lefties and hitting at Fenway.) They could either pay the $10mill difference or include an equally valued player (David Hamilton at 11.4? There are probably others.). I recommend the cash, but the Sox are not exactly charitable these days.   Either way, Garver does make more sense for Boston and Refsnyder might not be an option.  Although this trade doesn’t eliminate him from consideration either. They still need a 4th outfielder regardless…

 

I included Abreu, because I thought SEA needed offense and more value.

I also think Anthony can replace Abreu in RF and is also a LHB.

I have Campbell as our #2 not #4. I'd rather trade LHB Mayer than RHB Campbell, but not just because of which side they bat from.

I did think about dropping Robbles and simplifying the deal.

[notin]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

With Garver, he's typically unhealthy, unproductive or both. 

He was the starting DH on a Workd Series champion recently.  Most of his unhealthy seasons were years he played a lot of catcher.  He is a good RHH who hits lefties well, and the Sox have options for a platoon (Valdez?) if need be…

 

 

[moonslav59]

While I think E Valdez might end up being a good MLB hitter, and possibly a very good platoon hitter, his horrific defense makes him a 40 man roster bubble player, for us, this winter>spring. He may end up being a DH only type, and not many DH-only, platoon guys stick around for very long.

I can't see him ever improving at 2B, enough to stick, there. Maybe his best shot is LF, but we are loaded there. We also have a FT DH, who bats LH'd, too.

I'm thinking we trade him, if anyone gives something for him, or he gets DFA'd to make room for Rule 5's, or makes it to near opening day as the last guy to be DFA'd.

 

[notin]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I included Abreu, because I thought SEA needed offense and more value.

I also think Anthony can replace Abreu in RF and is also a LHB.

I have Campbell as our #2 not #4. I'd rather trade LHB Mayer than RHB Campbell, but not just because of which side they bat from.

I did think about dropping Robbles and simplifying the deal.

Campbell is the hot new toy, but both players are hitting about the same in Worcester.  The difference is Mayer can field a position.  And despite how long each has been around, Campbell is actually 6 months older…

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

He was the starting DH on a Workd Series champion recently.  Most of his unhealthy seasons were years he played a lot of catcher.  He is a good RHH who hits lefties well, and the Sox have options for a platoon (Valdez?) if need be…

 

 

If Ref does not retire, what are the chance Garver outhits him vs LHPs?

[notin]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

While I think E Valdez might end up being a good MLB hitter, and possibly a very good platoon hitter, his horrific defense makes him a 40 man roster bubble player, for us, this winter>spring. He may end up being a DH only type, and not many DH-only, platoon guys stick around for very long.

I can't see him ever improving at 2B, enough to stick, there. Maybe his best shot is LF, but we are loaded there. We also have a FT DH, who bats LH'd, too.

I'm thinking we trade him, if anyone gives something for him, or he gets DFA'd to make room for Rule 5's, or makes it to near opening day as the last guy to be DFA'd.

 

Valdez’ ceiling is platoon DH.  I think he is already a good hitter, but nothing spectacular.  I would have recommended him to Seattle with Yoshida, but as both are LHH DH types with limited defensive skills, Valdez is redundant.  

[notin]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If Ref does not retire, what are the chance Garver outhits him vs LHPs?

Who cares?  There’s room for both. Until Anthony comes up and Abreu gets moved, Refsnyder has a place to play…

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Campbell is the hot new toy, but both players are hitting about the same in Worcester.  The difference is Mayer can field a position.  And despite how long each has been around, Campbell is actually 6 months older…

Mayer is hitting the same as Campbell? 

[notin]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Mayer is hitting the same as Campbell? 

Boo boo on my part.  I thought Mayer’s .850 OPS was in Worcester.  He’s stil in Portland, where Campbell demolished Eastern League pitching.

 

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

Valdez’ ceiling is platoon DH.  I think he is already a good hitter, but nothing spectacular.  I would have recommended him to Seattle with Yoshida, but as both are LHH DH types with limited defensive skills, Valdez is redundant.  

You see no chance he can be an acceptable LF'er, or decent enough that his bat may overcome those short-comings?

(I'm not sure, at all.)

I think we part ways with him.

It's interesting to note, he still leads all Sox players with PAs at 2B and has an .882 OPS since June 1st.

Top Sox Jun1>>> (100+ PAs)

.936 Duran

.930 O'Neill

.899 Devers

.882 Valdez

.830 Abreu

.790 Ref

.789 Yoshi & Romy

.730 Rafaela

.727 Wong

.668 DHam

[notin]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You see no chance he can be an acceptable LF'er, or decent enough that his bat may overcome those short-comings?

(I'm not sure, at all.)

I think we part ways with him.

It's interesting to note, he still leads all Sox players with PAs at 2B and has an .882 OPS since June 1st.

Top Sox Jun1>>> (100+ PAs)

.936 Duran

.930 O'Neill

.899 Devers

.882 Valdez

.830 Abreu

.790 Ref

.789 Yoshi & Romy

.730 Rafaela

.727 Wong

.668 DHam

The man can hit.  If he moves to LF, doubtful it’s in Boston.  His 2b activity could be severely interrupted by Vaughn Grissom next year.  And, if he’s still here, David Hamilton.  With Story back and Mayer still here, hopefully we see less of Hamilton (and Rafaela) at SS.

Valdez’ best position is DH…