Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

You have no peer in laydowns like the above.  That said, the biggest shortcoming--my opinion--is the Sox need to fix the righty bat issue.  It's now almost universally known they simply can't hit lefty pitchers.   Their current OPS vs righties is .764 and against lefties--with O'Neill and Ref both in those lineups--.716.  

I still think pitching is our #1, #2, #3 and #4 priority and maybe even a tie with RHB at #5.

I think we just need to count on Story to improve the D at SS, CF (Rafaela to CF FT) and LF (Duran plays more LF.) 

I've mentioned trading Abreu for a RHB clone, but I cannot think of one or know that his team wants or needs a LHP more.

Adding Campbell to the 2B mix might fix the RHB issue, too. Anthony, Mayer and Teel may not fix it, but they might hit LHPs better than Abreu, DHam and Wong.

It's going to be about pitching in 2025, IMHO.

Thanks for the compliment. I enjoy your posts, always, even if we disagree, at times.

[notin]

1 hour ago, dgalehouse said:

   Garrett Crochet gets an awful lot of attention for a guy who is 9-17 for his career. I know, I know, wins don't matter. Maybe that's a good thing because this guy has not been a winner.  Is anyone still weeping because the Sox didn't sign " Monty" last winter ?  

From 2019 through 2023, Sale was 17-18. Is that W-L record mean anything?

[dgalehouse]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

From 2019 through 2023, Sale was 17-18. Is that W-L record mean anything?

   Why pick 2019 as the starting point ? And 2023 as the end point ?    Sale is a proven winner over his career.  Crochet is not even remotely in his class. Not even worth discussing. 

[notin]

23 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I still think pitching is our #1, #2, #3 and #4 priority and maybe even a tie with RHB at #5.

I think we just need to count on Story to improve the D at SS, CF (Rafaela to CF FT) and LF (Duran plays more LF.) 

I've mentioned trading Abreu for a RHB clone, but I cannot think of one or know that his team wants or needs a LHP more.

Adding Campbell to the 2B mix might fix the RHB issue, too. Anthony, Mayer and Teel may not fix it, but they might hit LHPs better than Abreu, DHam and Wong.

It's going to be about pitching in 2025, IMHO.

Thanks for the compliment. I enjoy your posts, always, even if we disagree, at times.

If the Sox need pitching that badly, just sell and stockpile for 2026…

[notin]

1 hour ago, dgalehouse said:

   Why pick 2019 as the starting point ? And 2023 as the end point ?    Sale is a proven winner over his career.  Crochet is not even remotely in his class. Not even worth discussing. 

I didn’t pick some section in the middle.  I picked his last 5 seasons in Boston.  Why do his wins in 2012 still matter?  And he went 6-11 in 2019. Are we not supposed to count that?  Or is he only a proven winner in the seasons he gets wins?  Also, in case you missed it, 17 wins is not a lot for 5 years.

Or maybe, just maybe W-L record for pitchers really is meaningless.

As for Crochet, there are concerns.  But he does have serious talent.  But of all the things to hold against him, won loss record tells you nothing…

[Larry Cook]

I know I am in the minority here, but I see houck as a 3 at best in a rotation! 
in 2024 offseason, I want to see us sign fried. I know he has durability issue's, but his stuff is amazing. Fried would be #1 in our rotation. 
then comes the big trade. Seattle needs bats badly. I propose we trade cassas, yoshida, Hamilton and hagenman to Seattle for Miller. Miller slides in as #2 in our rotation. 
 

2025 rotation 

1.) fried 2.) miller 3.) houck 4.) bello 5.) Gioletta 

depth - Crawford. Fitts, Criswell 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I know I am in the minority here, but I see houck as a 3 at best in a rotation! 
in 2024 offseason, I want to see us sign fried. I know he has durability issue's, but his stuff is amazing. Fried would be #1 in our rotation. 
then comes the big trade. Seattle needs bats badly. I propose we trade cassas, yoshida, Hamilton and hagenman to Seattle for Miller. Miller slides in as #2 in our rotation. 
 

2025 rotation 

1.) fried 2.) miller 3.) houck 4.) bello 5.) Gioletta 

depth - Crawford. Fitts, Criswell 

If it’s a minority, it’s not a small one.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

If the Sox need pitching that badly, just sell and stockpile for 2026…

Why? We can spend $55M and still be the same as this year.

Trade bats for one pitcher and get 3 more for $50-55M.

This would not hurt the 2026 and beyond team, either, if we spend wisely.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I know I am in the minority here, but I see houck as a 3 at best in a rotation! 
in 2024 offseason, I want to see us sign fried. I know he has durability issue's, but his stuff is amazing. Fried would be #1 in our rotation. 
then comes the big trade. Seattle needs bats badly. I propose we trade cassas, yoshida, Hamilton and hagenman to Seattle for Miller. Miller slides in as #2 in our rotation. 
 

2025 rotation 

1.) fried 2.) miller 3.) houck 4.) bello 5.) Gioletta 

depth - Crawford. Fitts, Criswell 

I agree but think we'll be lucky if we add a 1/2 and a 3/4 slot pitcher. That forces Houck to #2, but also adds depth to the pen.

[notin]

27 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Why? We can spend $55M and still be the same as this year.

Trade bats for one pitcher and get 3 more for $50-55M.

This would not hurt the 2026 and beyond team, either, if we spend wisely.

Rebuild half the staff?

The Sox have 4 SPs and the bulk of the BP returning, plus Hendriks and Fulmer.  
 

SPs will include Houck, Bello, Crawford, and Giolito, probably with Priester filling in for him until he’s cleared..

[Larry Cook]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

Rebuild half the staff?

The Sox have 4 SPs and the bulk of the BP returning, plus Hendriks and Fulmer.  
 

SPs will include Houck, Bello, Crawford, and Giolito, probably with Priester filling in for him until he’s cleared..

I consider Crawford and priester and fitts as depth pieces only. We have to get 2 top of the rotation arms to be a playoff team next year 

[notin]

29 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I consider Crawford and priester and fitts as depth pieces only. We have to get 2 top of the rotation arms to be a playoff team next year 

If we had kept Sale, we’d be a playoff team this year.  That’s one TOR pitcher away…

[notin]

32 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I consider Crawford and priester and fitts as depth pieces only. We have to get 2 top of the rotation arms to be a playoff team next year 

And Crawford is a “depth piece”?  He’s second on the team in bWAR and has pitched 160 MLB innings with a 4.08 ERA, and yet somehow isn’t good enough for the rotation? Is Breslow expected to assemble a staff like one normally seen in a 10-man Yahoo Fantasy League?

[Hugh2]

2 hours ago, notin said:

I didn’t pick some section in the middle.  I picked his last 5 seasons in Boston.  Why do his wins in 2012 still matter?  And he went 6-11 in 2019. Are we not supposed to count that?  Or is he only a proven winner in the seasons he gets wins?  Also, in case you missed it, 17 wins is not a lot for 5 years.

Or maybe, just maybe W-L record for pitchers really is meaningless.

As for Crochet, there are concerns.  But he does have serious talent.  But of all the things to hold against him, won loss record tells you nothing…

 I feel most people understand what said player did from 30-34 is more predictive of who they are at 35 than what they did from 25-29. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

I know I am in the minority here, but I see houck as a 3 at best in a rotation! 
in 2024 offseason, I want to see us sign fried. I know he has durability issue's, but his stuff is amazing. Fried would be #1 in our rotation. 
then comes the big trade. Seattle needs bats badly. I propose we trade cassas, yoshida, Hamilton and hagenman to Seattle for Miller. Miller slides in as #2 in our rotation. 
 

2025 rotation 

1.) fried 2.) miller 3.) houck 4.) bello 5.) Gioletta 

depth - Crawford. Fitts, Criswell 

I’d be shocked if Seattle took that trade.

Yoshida has a large contract and they give very little money back. Plus he has no position.

Hagenman is a 27yo AAA depth arm.  Seattle, like every team, didn’t have a shortage of them.

Hamilton is a question mark but might have some appeal.  

Casas is a good centerpiece here.

 

And there’s always the issue of taking on 3 players requiring 40 man roster spots. (Will Hagenman require one next year? If so, that’s 4 spots.)

 

But BTV gives Casas a surplus value of $27.9.  Bryce Miller had a surplus of $54.4mill.

If you like their model, Casas plus Abreu is better match for Bryce Miller…

 

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Rebuild half the staff?

The Sox have 4 SPs and the bulk of the BP returning, plus Hendriks and Fulmer.  
 

SPs will include Houck, Bello, Crawford, and Giolito, probably with Priester filling in for him until he’s cleared..

If you compare the Sox staff to even playoff teams they’re not far off.  
 

of you take out Criswell and add Sale to the season the starting staff would have the 2nd highest FWar.

 

Sox need to add a TOTR starter this offseason, and a good #2.  That makes the pitching post season worthy.

 

if Houcks growth is real and Bello gets even a little better that’s a World Series rotation

[Larry Cook]

52 minutes ago, notin said:

If we had kept Sale, we’d be a playoff team this year.  That’s one TOR pitcher away…

Unfortunately, we cannot change the past. I think we need to move forward assuming the past is written in stone 

[Larry Cook]

36 minutes ago, notin said:

I’d be shocked if Seattle took that trade.

Yoshida has a large contract and they give very little money back. Plus he has no position.

Hagenman is a 27yo AAA depth arm.  Seattle, like every team, didn’t have a shortage of them.

Hamilton is a question mark but might have some appeal.  

Casas is a good centerpiece here.

 

And there’s always the issue of taking on 3 players requiring 40 man roster spots. (Will Hagenman require one next year? If so, that’s 4 spots.)

 

But BTV gives Casas a surplus value of $27.9.  Bryce Miller had a surplus of $54.4mill.

If you like their model, Casas plus Abreu is better match for Bryce Miller…

 

I almost included abreau instead of yoshida. But I assume we are paying all of yoshida for the duration of the contract. 
 

[notin]

9 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I almost included abreau instead of yoshida. But I assume we are paying all of yoshida for the duration of the contract. 
 

If they acquired Yoshida, they’d need to play him in the OF unless the Sox took back Mitch Garver.  
 

That’s much less fair to Seattle on BTV, but they have no need for both Yoshida and Garver.

 

A deal of Yoshida and Hamilton for Garver works on BTV and gives the Sox the RHH DH they could really use, but doesn’t help their pitching at all.  It also requires some faith in Garver bouncing back
 

 

[Larry Cook]

1 minute ago, notin said:

If they acquired Yoshida, they’d need to play him in the OF unless the Sox took back Mitch Garver.  
 

That’s much less fair to Seattle on BTV, but they have no need for both Yoshida and Garver.

 

A deal of Yoshida and Hamilton for Garver works on BTV and gives the Sox the RHH DH they could really use, but doesn’t help their pitching at all…
 

 

Fair enough. But miller is the guy we are missing in our rotation. 

[notin]

19 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Fair enough. But miller is the guy we are missing in our rotation. 

Casas, Abreu, Yoshida and Hamilton for Miller and Garver?

 

Seems a bit too big to ever happen.   
 

Also why is Bryce Miller (2.6 bWAR) a clear #2 while Tanner Houck (3.4 bWAR) is not?

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Casas, Abreu, Yoshida and Hamilton for Miller and Garver?

 

Seems a bit too big to ever happen.   
 

Also why is Bryce Miller (2.6 bWAR) a clear #2 while Tanner Houck (3.4 bWAR) is not?

When you look at pure stuff, miller is clearly better. But if you want to swap houck and miller with in the rotation, I have no problem with that! 

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, notin said:

Rebuild half the staff?

The Sox have 4 SPs and the bulk of the BP returning, plus Hendriks and Fulmer.  
 

SPs will include Houck, Bello, Crawford, and Giolito, probably with Priester filling in for him until he’s cleared..

Are you JH?

[notin]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Are you JH?

Just a guy who knows JH isn’t going to spring for a Dream Pitching Staff, and who doesn’t look at Houck and his 3.3 bWAR as a “#3 at best” while eyeballing some arm from another team with 2-2.5 bWAR as the missing TOR starter we need…

[notin]

13 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

When you look at pure stuff, miller is clearly better. But if you want to swap houck and miller with in the rotation, I have no problem with that! 

“Stuff” Is meaningless unless it can be translated into useful pitching.  The MLB landscape is littered with guys with amazing stuff who simply couldn’t pitch…

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

Just a guy who knows JH isn’t going to spring for a Dream Pitching Staff, and who doesn’t look at Houck and his 3.3 bWAR as a “#3 at best” while eyeballing some arm from another team with 2-2.5 bWAR as the missing TOR starter we need…

With you on this one.  Houck as a "#3 at best" and Crawford as a "depth piece" does imply a whole lotta unrealistic expectations.

[notin]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

With you on this one.  Houck as a "#3 at best" and Crawford as a "depth piece" does imply a whole lotta unrealistic expectations.

Yeah realism!!

I wonder what it will take for folks to notice Houck (3.3) actually has more bWAR than Fried (2.6) and Corbin Burnes (2.2).

In fact, Burnes has the same bWAR as Crawford.

Our grass as Fenway is greener than we realize,  And we need to use that green to extend Houck and Duran…

 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Just a guy who knows JH isn’t going to spring for a Dream Pitching Staff, and who doesn’t look at Houck and his 3.3 bWAR as a “#3 at best” while eyeballing some arm from another team with 2-2.5 bWAR as the missing TOR starter we need…

No. You are suggesting we add no pitcher, at all, and go with Priester. You are suggesting JH & Co. and we forget Crawford's second half of the season. You are suggesting the "bulk of the pen returning with Hendriks and Fulmer" is something positive.

We don't know when Giolito will be back, and when he is, how long will it take for him to find the stride he lost in 2023?

We mentioned we'd prefer Houck be the #3,  but fully realize he is likely to  be slotted 1 or 2 for 2025. To me, he is the one SP'er we have that has very few questions about 2025.

Bello looks like a decent 4/5, but still has questions.

Assuming Gio is okay and just misses a handful of starts in April, that's 3 SP'er.

No way am I counting on Crawford as a SP'er.  I know JH & Co. might, but I'm not expecting him to be good in 2025, as a SP. Okay, that's the "4" you mentioned, and it could very well happen that JH limits Brez so much, that all he can do is sign a 3/4 slot SP'er and we go with this:

1. Houck, 2. Gio (Criswell in April) 3. __add__, 4. Bello, 5. Crawford- This is a losing rotation all the way. Can it happen? YES! Suggesting we can do better with so much money available below the tax line, and enough trade capital to add one or two decent SP'ers without spending a penny, make me wonder why anyone would suggest we add just 1 mediocre SP'er and plan of the bulk of the pen plus two more question marks in Hendriks & Fulmer  returning as being okay.

I have no idea what JH is going to lay down for a budget. Whatever it is, even if it's another slash, I can't imagine Brez doing as little as you suggest. If the spending budget is just $25-30M, which is $30M under the line, he can add a #2 SP and a decent pen arm. Now, maybe JH also demands he not trade away any of the top 4-5 prospects, as well. Then, Brez could trade Abreu + DHam for a decent #3/4 SP or a couple decent RP'ers plus spending 100% of his winter budget on pitching. Even this worse case scenario should produce a better pitching staff than you suggest we might have. (I doubt this scenario would produce a playoff team, but the pitching staff should be better than 2024's.)

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, notin said:

“Stuff” Is meaningless unless it can be translated into useful pitching.  The MLB landscape is littered with guys with amazing stuff who simply couldn’t pitch…

Hasn't Miller pitched very well in his his nearly 300 MLB IP?

3.82 FIP

1.05 WHIP by age 25

He is a useful pitcher, right now. He is improving. He may improve even more.

He's good, because his "stuff" has been useful.

[notin]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

No. You are suggesting we add no pitcher, at all, and go with Priester. You are suggesting JH & Co. and we forget Crawford's second half of the season. You are suggesting the "bulk of the pen returning with Hendriks and Fulmer" is something positive.

We don't know when Giolito will be back, and when he is, how long will it take for him to find the stride he lost in 2023?

We mentioned we'd prefer Houck be the #3,  but fully realize he is likely to  be slotted 1 or 2 for 2025. To me, he is the one SP'er we have that has very few questions about 2025.

Bello looks like a decent 4/5, but still has questions.

Assuming Gio is okay and just misses a handful of starts in April, that's 3 SP'er.

No way am I counting on Crawford as a SP'er.  I know JH & Co. might, but I'm not expecting him to be good in 2025, as a SP. Okay, that's the "4" you mentioned, and it could very well happen that JH limits Brez so much, that all he can do is sign a 3/4 slot SP'er and we go with this:

1. Houck, 2. Gio (Criswell in April) 3. __add__, 4. Bello, 5. Crawford- This is a losing rotation all the way. Can it happen? YES! Suggesting we can do better with so much money available below the tax line, and enough trade capital to add one or two decent SP'ers without spending a penny, make me wonder why anyone would suggest we add just 1 mediocre SP'er and plan of the bulk of the pen plus two more question marks in Hendriks & Fulmer  returning as being okay.

I have no idea what JH is going to lay down for a budget. Whatever it is, even if it's another slash, I can't imagine Brez doing as little as you suggest. If the spending budget is just $25-30M, which is $30M under the line, he can add a #2 SP and a decent pen arm. Now, maybe JH also demands he not trade away any of the top 4-5 prospects, as well. Then, Brez could trade Abreu + DHam for a decent #3/4 SP or a couple decent RP'ers plus spending 100% of his winter budget on pitching. Even this worse case scenario should produce a better pitching staff than you suggest we might have. (I doubt this scenario would produce a playoff team, but the pitching staff should be better than 2024's.)

No, I suggested Priester as a stand-in for Giolito., who I doubt is recovered until July/August.

 

Crawford has the same bWAR as Corbin Burnes.  Why not count on him?  Would you count on Burnes?  I can find dozens of posts denigrating Houck and Crawford while wishing for Burnes and/ or Fried.  But as of today, Houck and Crawford (total 5.5) are outperforming Burnes and Fried (5.1) on bWAR…

 

Ive said it before.  If we had Sale, we’d be in the postseason.  Doubtful another Sale is available, but I’ve been posting lately about the best pitchers rumored to be available, or seeing whose contracts are coming up and therefore might be…