Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

With you on this one.  Houck as a "#3 at best" and Crawford as a "depth piece" does imply a whole lotta unrealistic expectations.

I've said I seriously doubt it happens. My point was that even with a limited budget, if we make one impactful trade, and another moderate on, we can add a #1 and #2 SP'er plus a decent RP'er or two.

I'm not expecting a major increase in spending or even any increase. I have no idea what the winter spending budget will be, but I know this:

1. We can get by without adding anything to the everyday 13 player roster. 

2. We can afford to trade from our everyday roster and prospect list, where bottlenecked.

3. We can spend whatever budget we have 100% on pitching.

There would have to be several major limitations placed on Brez for him not to be able to vastly improve our staff. Of course, that could happen. I've given up expecting significant spending, but we can do a lot without major spending. This is what gives me some hope.

IMO, we will probably go way lower than what I hope we do (and can do.) At minimum, we probably trade Abreu for a #4, and hand RF to Anthony. We sign a #3 or a couple decent set up men and maybe some better pitching depth.

1. Houck, 2. Gio, 3. Bello, 4. __trade__, 5. Crawford (Criswell, __FA__, Priester, Fitts)

Closer: Hendriks, __FA__, Slaten, __FA__, Whitlock, Kelly, Fulmer, Winckowski (Bernardino, Booser, Weissert, ICampbel, Guerrero)

You think we end up worse than this, on paper?

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, notin said:

Yeah realism!!

....Our grass as Fenway is greener than we realize,  And we need to use that green to extend Houck and Duran…

 

I know you do not view Burnes and being equal to Crawford in your 2025 projections.

[notin]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Hasn't Miller pitched very well in his his nearly 300 MLB IP?

3.82 FIP

1.05 WHIP by age 25

He is a useful pitcher, right now. He is improving. He may improve even more.

He's good, because his "stuff" has been useful.

Not what I asked.  I asked why he was better than Houck..

[moonslav59]

Just now, notin said:

Not what I asked.  I asked why he was better than Houck..

You implied his "stuff" may not be "useful."

[notin]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

I know you do not view Burnes and being equal to Crawford in your 2025 projections.

It’s one year.  Burnes, like any pitcher, can have a good or bad season.

The real point is Crawford is better than many think.  He’s not a reliever and not a depth piece.  He’s an MLB-caliber starting pitcher who probably needs to build up some stamina.  His last few starts have been better (second wind?), but his season overall has been complete overshadowed by his post-ASB struggles.

And barring an unforeseen trade or injury, he will be in the Sox rotation next year. By which I mean Boston, not Worcester.

 

 

[notin]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You implied his "stuff" may not be "useful."

The only support for him being better than than was given was about his “superior stuff.”  That’s not real support…

[notin]

Also all I have said about Hendriks and Fulmer is they’re both already signed.  The point being “don’t expect the Sox to overspend on the bullpen.”  I’ve yet to say anything about the performance of either.

 

Also I’m 99% sure Hendriks gets first crack at the 2025 closer role,  I’ll go out on that limb…

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

The only support for him being better than than was given was about his “superior stuff.”  That’s not real support…

I'm not sure what that has to do with your "stuff" and "useful" comment.

Weren't you implying maybe his stuff was or may not be useful?

[notin]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I've said I seriously doubt it happens. My point was that even with a limited budget, if we make one impactful trade, and another moderate on, we can add a #1 and #2 SP'er plus a decent RP'er or two.

I'm not expecting a major increase in spending or even any increase. I have no idea what the winter spending budget will be, but I know this:

1. We can get by without adding anything to the everyday 13 player roster. 

2. We can afford to trade from our everyday roster and prospect list, where bottlenecked.

3. We can spend whatever budget we have 100% on pitching.

There would have to be several major limitations placed on Brez for him not to be able to vastly improve our staff. Of course, that could happen. I've given up expecting significant spending, but we can do a lot without major spending. This is what gives me some hope.

IMO, we will probably go way lower than what I hope we do (and can do.) At minimum, we probably trade Abreu for a #4, and hand RF to Anthony. We sign a #3 or a couple decent set up men and maybe some better pitching depth.

1. Houck, 2. Gio, 3. Bello, 4. __trade__, 5. Crawford (Criswell, __FA__, Priester, Fitts)

Closer: Hendriks, __FA__, Slaten, __FA__, Whitlock, Kelly, Fulmer, Winckowski (Bernardino, Booser, Weissert, ICampbel, Guerrero)

You think we end up worse than this, on paper?

I have no clue about the budget, so I anticipate minimal change.

I also suspect some of the groundwork for 2025i !has already been done - namely Hendriks, Fulmer, Priester.  Not sure why you disagree with this.  As I said, it’s already been done.

i hope they attack the top of the rotation.  As I expect one major SP to be added at most, I’d prefer Skubal, Freddy Peralta, or Garret Crochet (in that order).  While the availability of all three has been rumored or could happen due to the contract, it seems to me only Crochet is going to be available.  I don’t think Burnes or Fried are on the radar, or ever will be. 
 

id like to see better than Crochet, whom the Sox pounded last night.  But who else will be available?

 

 

[Maxbialystock]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I've said I seriously doubt it happens. My point was that even with a limited budget, if we make one impactful trade, and another moderate on, we can add a #1 and #2 SP'er plus a decent RP'er or two.

I'm not expecting a major increase in spending or even any increase. I have no idea what the winter spending budget will be, but I know this:

1. We can get by without adding anything to the everyday 13 player roster. 

2. We can afford to trade from our everyday roster and prospect list, where bottlenecked.

3. We can spend whatever budget we have 100% on pitching.

There would have to be several major limitations placed on Brez for him not to be able to vastly improve our staff. Of course, that could happen. I've given up expecting significant spending, but we can do a lot without major spending. This is what gives me some hope.

IMO, we will probably go way lower than what I hope we do (and can do.) At minimum, we probably trade Abreu for a #4, and hand RF to Anthony. We sign a #3 or a couple decent set up men and maybe some better pitching depth.

1. Houck, 2. Gio, 3. Bello, 4. __trade__, 5. Crawford (Criswell, __FA__, Priester, Fitts)

Closer: Hendriks, __FA__, Slaten, __FA__, Whitlock, Kelly, Fulmer, Winckowski (Bernardino, Booser, Weissert, ICampbel, Guerrero)

You think we end up worse than this, on paper?

Once again, excellent laydown and analysis.    Recently I said the Sox need righty bats, but now I'm not so sure.  So it's hard to disagree with focusing on the pitching.  And your big point is that fixes are doable within almost any budget.  

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Also all I have said about Hendriks and Fulmer is they’re both already signed.  The point being “don’t expect the Sox to overspend on the bullpen.”  I’ve yet to say anything about the performance of either.

 

Also I’m 99% sure Hendriks gets first crack at the 2025 closer role,  I’ll go out on that limb…

We very well may not spend big on the pen, and I could easily see them handing the closer role to Hendriks the day after this season ends. I can also see them viewing Fulmer as having a significant role in 2025, but I have to believe they do not think Hendriks and Fulmer are as good as Jansen & martin have been for us, over the last 2 seasons. Returning those two with the "bulk of the 2024 pen" will be another failing pen. 

I think we find a way to add a couple decent pen arms, over the winter, even if it is via trades of everyday players or prospects. I realize I could be wrong (again) and they view Weissert, I Campbell and Guerrero as giving more than we saw in 2024, and that could be enough. Plus, a full season from Slaten and moving Whitlock to the pen, FT should rightfully be viewed as upgrades. They may just go status quo and roll the dice, again. Personally, I don't think they have much faith in the "returning bulk." I know I don't.

[notin]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure what that has to do with your "stuff" and "useful" comment.

Weren't you implying maybe his stuff was or may not be useful?

No.

 

I said the MLB landscape is littered with stuff guys blah blah.  Basically, don’t tell me about stuff.  Tell me why Miller is better than Houck.  He penciled Miller into the 2 slot ahead of Houck…

[Bellhorn04]

27 minutes ago, notin said:

Crawford has the same bWAR as Corbin Burnes.  Why not count on him?  Would you count on Burnes?  I can find dozens of posts denigrating Houck and Crawford while wishing for Burnes and/ or Fried.  But as of today, Houck and Crawford (total 5.5) are outperforming Burnes and Fried (5.1) on bWAR…

That's actually a great factoid, and kind of hilarious to boot...

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Maxbialystock said:

Once again, excellent laydown and analysis.    Recently I said the Sox need righty bats, but now I'm not so sure.  So it's hard to disagree with focusing on the pitching.  And your big point is that fixes are doable within almost any budget.  

I think the righty bat is a need, but we will hope Story & Campbell fill that role. Plus, Rafaela in CF forces a lefty bat to the bench or a trade-away.

I'm not sure what our budget or trade plans will be, but to me, it has to be 100% pitching, pitching, pitching.

We have to roll the dice on Story (or Mayer) and hope Anthony and Campbell can be positive influences on any everyday player shortcomings.

100% of the winter spending budget should go to pitching.

All trades should be for improving the pitching, even if the package involves a pitcher or pitching prospect.

I'm just as pessimistic about what we spend, this winter as anyone else- maybe more than some think, but I can't imagine the winter budget being less than $25-30M AAV. That, in itself, would be yet another major slash to an already reduced budget. With just $30M and a significant trade or two, we should be able to improve on 2024's staff, despite losing Jansen, Martin and Pivetta. As notin points out often, we are essentially adding Gio, Hendriks and Fulmer (plus Whitlock,) so our additions need not be one-to-one upgrades over who we are losing. We can focus all available resource on 2-3 major additions and not spread the resources over 5-6 mediocre additions.

I underlined CAN, because I know we may not. To me, it would take several major restrictions placed on Brez to disallow Brez the chance at improving our staff. I also fully realize Brez could swing and miss, again, and it could all be for not.

I think we can; I think we CAN, I THINK WE CAN!!!

(I don't expect we will.)

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

No.

 

I said the MLB landscape is littered with stuff guys blah blah.  Basically, don’t tell me about stuff.  Tell me why Miller is better than Houck.  He penciled Miller into the 2 slot ahead of Houck…

Okay, I get the context, now. I agree that Houck has better stuff than Miller and has been more "useful" with it. I do think Miller would be a great addition and be close to Houck by age 26 (2025,) perhaps becoming better, as Houck seems to have slipped, recently.

[notin]

15 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Once again, excellent laydown and analysis.    Recently I said the Sox need righty bats, but now I'm not so sure.  So it's hard to disagree with focusing on the pitching.  And your big point is that fixes are doable within almost any budget.  

I haven’t given much board time to RHH needs, but they are real.  So some thought:

1. Bring back O’Neill for RF.  Assuming he doesn’t want years.  The Sox need a guy on short years to hold the position for Anthony.

2. Story and Grissom both return.  While likely to hit better vs LHP than Hamilton, not sure this is anything more than a minimal upgrade.

3. I like Yoshida, but an exchange with Larry made me notice a realistic Yoshida trade would send him and Hamilton to Seattle for Mitch Garver.  Garver has been awful this year, but he also entered the season with terrible numbers in Seattle.  Can he bounce back? If not , unlike Yoshida, he has only one year left.

[moonslav59]

FWAR since June 29...

3.0 Sale

2.5 Skubal

2.4 F Valdez

2.2 Snell

2.0 Gilbert, Steele & H Brown

16. Miller 1.6 (tied w Nate & Lugo)

30. Bello 1.2

50. Pivetta 0.9

110. Criswell, Houck & Crawford 0.2

 

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

I haven’t given much board time to RHH needs, but they are real.  So some thought:

1. Bring back O’Neill for RF.  Assuming he doesn’t want years.  The Sox need a guy on short years to hold the position for Anthony.

2. Story and Grissom both return.  While likely to hit better vs LHP than Hamilton, not sure this is anything more than a minimal upgrade.

3. I like Yoshida, but an exchange with Larry made me notice a realistic Yoshida trade would send him and Hamilton to Seattle for Mitch Garver.  Garver has been awful this year, but he also entered the season with terrible numbers in Seattle.  Can he bounce back? If not , unlike Yoshida, he has only one year left.

I'd rather talk Refsnyder into not retiring and platoon him with Abreu at DH.

I also think we will see Anthony in RF on opening day, or the day after he is set to have an extra year of team control. (Anybody know what that date might be?)

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

FWAR since June 29...

3.0 Sale

2.5 Skubal

2.4 F Valdez

2.2 Snell

All lefties!

And our guys who have faded in the second half are all righties!

There's something going on here, I tell ya...

 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

All lefties!

And our guys who have faded in the second half are all righties!

There's something going on here, I tell ya...

 

RHP Bello broke that mold. (Pivetta, too.)

[Nick]

  Moon I don't see Giolito in your budget. Surely he will exercise his player option. We paid the guy $35M for 1 year, assuming he is ready to go on 4/1.

[Nick]

How do I get to previous page?

 

I can get to the first and last page but I don't see going to a specific pahe.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, Nick said:

How do I get to previous page?

 

I can get to the first and last page but I don't see going to a specific pahe.

May have to do with the device, maybe you need an app if you're on a tablet or whatever.  I'm on my desktop right now and I can access any page (have to skip through 5 pages at a time, much like the previous software).  I don't think I can do this on my tablet.

[Nick]

thank you.....yep I can't get to the previous or any pages on my phone but on my desk top I see all the pages.  Technology is hard on dumb old guys.

[Nick]

Moon, you need 172 days on MLB roster to earn 1 year of service time.

Majority of teams open on March 27th and end on September 28th. 

That is total of 186 days. 

According to my math, rookies can debut on April 11th and will be denied one year of service time. (they will end up with 171 days, too bad!)

In essence, we can have team control on our fabulous 4 for 7 years if we wait until April 11th call up. Of course they will be eligible for 4 years of arbitration instead of 3. That to me is not a big deal. It's just few more millions.

 

 

 

[dgalehouse]

I think too much has been made of the need for an " ace ". A "top of the rotation" guy.  There is no such thing as top of the rotation. There is only a rotation. Numbering your starters, one through five is meaningless. And there is no one out there who is all that great anyway. Skubal is not likely to be available.  Burnes is good, but not great. Certainly not the over-hyped Crochet. Sale is the one who got away.  What you want is a good five-man rotation, with some back up depth. Most importantly, you want a good and deep bullpen. That is where so many games are won or lost.  That needs to be a priority. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, dgalehouse said:

I think too much has been made of the need for an " ace ". A "top of the rotation" guy.  There is no such thing as top of the rotation. There is only a rotation. Numbering your starters, one through five is meaningless. And there is no one out there who is all that great anyway. Skubal is not likely to be available.  Burnes is good, but not great. Certainly not the over-hyped Crochet. Sale is the one who got away.  What you want is a good five-man rotation, with some back up depth. Most importantly, you want a good and deep bullpen. That is where so many games are won or lost.  That needs to be a priority. 

By far the best value starter signings this past offseason were mid-priced guys-Lugo, Wacha, Imanaga. 

 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Nick said:

Moon, you need 172 days on MLB roster to earn 1 year of service time.

Majority of teams open on March 27th and end on September 28th. 

That is total of 186 days. 

According to my math, rookies can debut on April 11th and will be denied one year of service time. (they will end up with 171 days, too bad!)

In essence, we can have team control on our fabulous 4 for 7 years if we wait until April 11th call up. Of course they will be eligible for 4 years of arbitration instead of 3. That to me is not a big deal. It's just few more millions.

 

 

 

Thanks for making it more clear. I was thinking it was later than 4/11.

[moonslav59]

46 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

By far the best value starter signings this past offseason were mid-priced guys-Lugo, Wacha, Imanaga. 

 

Yes, it was a good winter for those signings. I'm not sure we can or should count on that, this winter.

As far as Dale's comments on ace vs 5 man rotations, I have to say it has to be better to add a really good pitcher over trying to upgrade 3-5, at once. Trying to improve the rotation by upgrading the #5 a little bit, doesn't do it for me.

[notin]

2 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

I think too much has been made of the need for an " ace ". A "top of the rotation" guy.  There is no such thing as top of the rotation. There is only a rotation. Numbering your starters, one through five is meaningless. And there is no one out there who is all that great anyway. Skubal is not likely to be available.  Burnes is good, but not great. Certainly not the over-hyped Crochet. Sale is the one who got away.  What you want is a good five-man rotation, with some back up depth. Most importantly, you want a good and deep bullpen. That is where so many games are won or lost.  That needs to be a priority. 

I do agree with all of this. Except whether or not Crochet is overhyped, but that’s a trivial point.  (And the Burnes assessment, but that is immaterial since zero chance the Sox get beyond the “rumored suitor” phase.)

A deep bullpen is ideal, rather than one built around a closer/set up duo.  The Sox do have numerous pitchers returning to the pen.  Along with the signed absentees Liam Hendriks and Michael Fulmer, there is Winckowski, Slaten, Bernardino, Booser, Kelly and Whitlock.  Of those last 6, the most likely locks are Winckowski, Slaten and Whitlock, with Bernardino on the fringes.  If that’s the case, the Sox have two immediate openings on the MLB roster.  This is the place to spend.  Tanner Scott would be nice.  Or AJ Minter.  The trade market is likely to have Kyle Finnegan.   There are options to bulk up the pen.

I hope they still look into Crochet.  Or maybe a Seattle starter…