Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[Randy Red Sox]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I guess it's a done deal: we will suck in 2025, despite having what some consider the best and deepest rotation in MLB.

Guess the band... (No googling)

I wore my teeth in my hand

so I could mess the hair of the night

Hey, well I'm beginning to see the light...

we have improved our P but it is far from the best in MLB unless you are counting the surplus of AAAA P we have

[moonslav59]

It's easy to focus on the negative, and certainly several teams have better rotations than ours, although maybe not in the AL, but I think more easily overlook some serious questions about SP'ers on other teams. Yamo started just 18 games in 2024. 

The Dodgers have a better rotation, but Ohtani is not pitching until May, They lost Buehler. Yamo started just 18 games, and Glasnow is literally made of glass. Susaki was the apple of everyone's eye, but he has never thrown a pitch in MLB. May has a ton of talent but is rehabbing. Stone started 25 games in 2024 and might have been their most reliable guy, in '24 and is out the whole '25 season.

The Yanks added Fried- someone I really wished we signed, but they also lost Cortes. Cole missed almost half a season in '24. Rodon was healthy but has an injury history that looks a lot like Buehler's. They are shopping their 29 GS'er Stroman. Gil & Schmidt are a couple nice younger SP'ers.

Philly has Wheeler, Nola, Suarez, Luzardo & Sanchez. Only Luzardo has big Qs.

ATL lost Fried and has the big Q for the previous 5 years in Sale, but damn, they have some nice starters: Strider, Reynaldo Lopez, Schwellenbauch & Elder. Strider did miss some time, but still...

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

we have improved our P but it is far from the best in MLB unless you are counting the surplus of AAAA P we have

Again, I meant to say in the AL.

I said rotation, only.

I said some think they are the best in the AL.

I think we are top 3-5.

Our pen is probably 11-15 in MLB and 6-10 in AL.

Our bats might be close to top 10, but more likely 11-15.

Our D might still be bottom 5, unless Story stays healthy and gets us near #20.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR lists players who might be added to the 60 Day IL, but neglected to say Perales.

They mentioned Sandoval, Murphy and Whitlock as possibles.

[Hitch]

14 hours ago, harmony said:

The projected PECOTA standings are out:

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

Ouch!

In general how close are projections from the different sites? Is there analysis out there on who gets it right the most?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

How is the current Red Sox bullpen "improved" like a "writer" claimed in today's online NESN story? If everything goes just right, Boston's relief crew has a good chance to be as bad as last year. 

The Sox replaced their decent closer and set-up man with the Oldest Chapman and Justin Wilson. Chapman may have some good games, but fans will know quickly if they can ever trust him. Has Wilson ever had a prime? Two years ago he missed the entire season with TJS and a lat injury while trying to come back.

Speaking of, we have no idea if Hendriks will be good again. Maybe Whitlock will make a full recovery from his lost season; he's had issues for four summers. Hopefully, Slaten will as good as last year -- before he got hurt...

The front office didn't spend to sign anyone healthy with actual talent, but If just a few of these guys turn into Koji and Pap, the bullpen will indeed be improved. 

Maybe one of the former starters will go into the pen and turn into Eck... we know they won't be needed in the rotation where the durable guys will all make at least 30 starts apiece. 

[Bellhorn04]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

Ouch!

In general how close are projections from the different sites? Is there analysis out there on who gets it right the most?

As cynical as I've been, the PECOTA number seems wacky.

I think when it comes to W-L projections the best place to look is Vegas, which has us at an over-under of 84.5, which seems eminently reasonable.

(And before anyone jumps in with an explanation of how Vegas odds-setting works, that the intention is to have equal money bet on both sides, I know that.  They move the number if there's heavy betting on one side.)  

[mvp 78]

Wilson was a pretty good reliever from 2015-20. Not sure that pitcher is coming back again. He's also a one inning guy so he can't fill in for a Chase Anderson mop up role. Maybe a mild improvement from Joely Rodriguez? He had a decent stretch at one point last season and had a 3.30 FIP on 8/22 but completely fell apart. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

How is the current Red Sox bullpen "improved" like a "writer" claimed in today's online NESN story? If everything goes just right, Boston's relief crew has a good chance to be as bad as last year. 

The Sox replaced their decent closer and set-up man with the Oldest Chapman and Justin Wilson. Chapman may have some good games, but fans will know quickly if they can ever trust him. Has Wilson ever had a prime? Two years ago he missed the entire season with TJS and a lat injury while trying to come back.

Speaking of, we have no idea if Hendriks will be good again. Maybe Whitlock will make a full recovery from his lost season; he's had issues for four summers. Hopefully, Slaten will as good as last year -- before he got hurt...

The front office didn't spend to sign anyone healthy with actual talent, but If just a few of these guys turn into Koji and Pap, the bullpen will indeed be improved. 

Maybe one of the former starters will go into the pen and turn into Eck... we know they won't be needed in the rotation where the durable guys will all make at least 30 starts apiece. 

Dodgers got Yates for $13 million.  Seems pretty reasonable to me.  We couldn't have done that?

Robertson is still there.  He'll probably sign for about the same as Chapman got, and not with us.

Pennies are being squeezed hard, and not all the Sam Kennedy gibberish in the world can hide it.

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Wilson was a pretty good reliever from 2015-20. Not sure that pitcher is coming back again. He's also a one inning guy so he can't fill in for a Chase Anderson mop up role. Maybe a mild improvement from Joely Rodriguez? He had a decent stretch at one point last season and had a 3.30 FIP on 8/22 but completely fell apart. 

The early signing of Wilson was a bad omen for anyone keeping an eye on the REAL PAYROLL BUDGET number, the one that is making Sam Kennedy a little funny in the head because he has to keep pretending it doesn't exist...

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Dodgers got Yates for $13 million.  Seems pretty reasonable to me.  We couldn't have done that?

Robertson is still there.  He'll probably sign for about the same as Chapman got, and not with us.

Pennies are being squeezed hard, and not all the Sam Kennedy gibberish in the world can hide it.

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2025/02/sam-kennedy-red-sox-have-taken-aggressive-approach-still-have-ability-to-add-to-roster.html

Speaking outside Fenway Park as part of the team’s “Truck Day” festivities Monday, Kennedy contended that Boston has acted decisively and aggressively this winter while leaving the door open for further additions — even significant ones, “depending upon how things play out here over the next couple weeks.”

“I do,” he said when asked if the club has acted with the urgency he spoke about in November. “The approach Bres (Craig Breslow) took was one of extreme aggression, extreme urgency. That doesn’t mean you’re going to end up signing every single free agent you engage with or complete trades that you embark on. It has been great to see the aggressive approach and the sense of urgency within baseball operations to improve.

“We have the ability to add, if we can match up on deals that make sense, in terms of where we stand right now. I was asked the question earlier in the offseason about the ability to spend. We were engaged in the Juan Soto negotiations. It is something we have the ability to flexible (with), but it is so player and deal-specific. We’re going to do what’s right for the Red Sox for the short-term, trying to put a team out there that’s built to win in 2025, but also what makes sense for the long term.

“It’s always a difficult line to walk, that balance. We get criticized for our messaging on that front and we understand that. It’s hard to navigate the short term and the long term. The only way to really follow up on that and have credibility and trust from our fans is to win baseball games. That’s what we need to do.”

"THE ARISTOCRATS!!!" he added.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

"Our equipment trucks have been driving aggressively to Florida," he added. "High beams and horn honking on any whiteheads putting along in the middle lane... we'll even pass them on the right if we have to."

The Red Sox are entirely basing the season on injured players making healthy comebacks to regain past glories, and prospects becoming instant stars.

They're in the business of winning championships, and that's how they do business.

[Bellhorn04]

If reported interest was aggression, the Sox would be prime Mike Tyson.  

[notin]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Why don't our bats slump in April?

Casas does.  In fact, if Casas stumbles and falls in April, he won’t even hit the ground…

[notin]

20 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The early signing of Wilson was a bad omen for anyone keeping an eye on the REAL PAYROLL BUDGET number, the one that is making Sam Kennedy a little funny in the head because he has to keep pretending it doesn't exist...

The Sox bullpen will be adding or seeing the return of Hendriks, Chapman, Whitlock, Fulmer and Guerrero and may still add others.  But let’s focus on Wilson, because only free agents count and there is a semi-decent chance he is still with the team in June…

[notin]

35 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Dodgers got Yates for $13 million.  Seems pretty reasonable to me.  We couldn't have done that?

Robertson is still there.  He'll probably sign for about the same as Chapman got, and not with us.

Pennies are being squeezed hard, and not all the Sam Kennedy gibberish in the world can hide it.

Spent $13mill on a reliever? Hopefully.  Wasted it on a 38yo coming off a career year after a decade of off again-on again performances and injury hiatuses?  I’ll pass.

If not for the career year, this is the guy the Sox normally sign.  And then no one likes

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

The Sox bullpen will be adding or seeing the return of Hendriks, Chapman, Whitlock, Fulmer and Guerrero and may still add others.  But let’s focus on Wilson, because only free agents count and there is a semi-decent chance he is still with the team in June…

My main issue is guys like Yates and Robertson that the Sox could easily have afforded.  And yes that means I'm assuming they don't sign Robertson.

 

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Spent $13mill on a reliever? Hopefully.  Wasted it on a 38yo coming off a career year after a decade of off again-on again performances and injury hiatuses?  I’ll pass.

And yet the Sox have no issue acquiring guys like Buehler, Sandoval, Hendriks and Fulmer who are obvious "injury discount" deals.

But Yates you have as an automatic "waste".  OK...

[notin]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

My main issue is guys like Yates and Robertson that the Sox could easily have afforded.  And yes that means I'm assuming they don't sign Robertson.

 

I’m hopeful on Robertson.  But I wonder why he is still available and my biggest question is, is he only looking at teams he deems title contenders? I am basing this off nothing, but (particularly aging) players have done that kind of thing before.  And Robertson hasn’t won a ring since he was in Mariano Rivera’s shadow…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Another NESN.com headline: "Red Sox eyed Scherzer"...

... as in, Eyed like a Starbucks Frappuccino, but a small Dunkin will do.

It may get cold before Sandoval is back, but we can just wait and nuke it next summer.

[notin]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And yet the Sox have no issue acquiring guys like Buehler, Sandoval, Hendriks and Fulmer who are obvious "injury discount" deals.

A 38yo pitcher coming off a career year does seem like a questionable idea to me. 

And the reliever talent pool still does have some depth in it.  Robertson is the clear top talent, but there are other good arms still left…

[moonslav59]

If Robertson is seeking a ring on a 1 year deal, he won't sign with BOS. That leaves precious little else: Jansen? Finnegan? (I'd be okay with either, as we'd be better with one than without.)

I still want Grichuk, or maybe Laureano to shut us up about using Ref vs RAF in RF.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

A 38yo pitcher coming off a career year does seem like a questionable idea to me. 

And the reliever talent pool still does have some depth in it.  Robertson is the clear top talent, but there are other good arms still left…

Isn't a soon to be 40 year old RP'er, who had 19 IP from 2019 to 2021, somewhat of a wild card, too?

Yes, he has had three straight good seasons to two by Yates.

Okay, Yates had a "career year" in '24, but he was as good as Robertson in '23.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If Robertson is seeking a ring on a 1 year deal, he won't sign with BOS. That leaves precious little else: Jansen? Finnegan? (I'd be okay with either, as we'd be better with one than without.)

I still want Grichuk, or maybe Laureano to shut us up about using Ref vs RAF in RF.

Jansen took his ball and went home the last weekend of September. No player respects a guy quitting on his team, and no manager or coach wants a veteran setting that kind of example for a young team. 

[notin]

20 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And yet the Sox have no issue acquiring guys like Buehler, Sandoval, Hendriks and Fulmer who are obvious "injury discount" deals.

But Yates you have as an automatic "waste".  OK...

I’ve been excited about none of them.  Yates is more of the same.  If you recall, I didn’t want Buehler either..

[Hitch]

The Red Sox and Seattle Mariners were tied to each other at one point and it seems like there reportedly were at least two different trade packages that were rejected, according to the Seattle Times' Adam Jude.

"Around the MLB Winter Meetings in December, a major league source with direct knowledge of the talks said the Mariners and Red Sox had discussed a trade that would have sent (Luis Castillo) to Boston, with young first baseman Triston Casas and outfielder/designated hitter Masataka Yoshida coming to Seattle," Jude said. "The Mariners, however, were unwilling to take on the $56 million remaining on Yoshida’s contract through 2027, and the talks stalled out from there.

"In November, the Mariners had also rejected an offer from the Red Sox for either one of their youngest starting pitchers — Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo — for Casas."

 

Not a shock to see this confirmed(ish). I think that would have ultimately led to a trade for Arenado (or maybe even sign Bregman) and moving Devers to 1st which would have probably made us better. I wonder how Casas will feel knowing we've been actively (rightly in my mind) trying to move him this winter.

[Bellhorn04]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

A 38yo pitcher coming off a career year does seem like a questionable idea to me. 

Yeah but it's a 1 year deal and a total risk of $13 million.  And the Red Sox are light years short of the big spenders in payroll commitments.  

I'm sticking with "they're being cheap" unless I see some real evidence otherwise. 

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

I’ve been excited about none of them.  Yates is more of the same.  If you recall, I didn’t want Buehler either..

So you don't really like what they've done outside of Crochet, I take it. 

[notin]

12 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

we have improved our P but it is far from the best in MLB unless you are counting the surplus of AAAA P we have

Who are all these AAAA pitchers?

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Casas does.  In fact, if Casas stumbles and falls in April, he won’t even hit the ground…

If Casas falls in the woods, will any of us post about it?