Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[notin]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Crawford actually seems like the textbook guy to NOT extend...

He might be, but last April/May when I wanted the Sox to extend him, he looked like a Cy Young candidate they were foolish to leave unextended…

[notin]

20 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Big problem with that joke.  The average person actually has two of the latter, and in numerous cases the male's are larger-though not on AVERAGE, of course. 🙃

 

Yeah thats the problem.

The guy who used to say it was probably immune from any HR issues, but that didn’t make it less NSFW.  I gave him that Bill Gates thing instead and I heard he did use it.  It helped emphasize the inaccuracies of relying on averages…

[mvp 78]

Crawford HR's by month '24:

Apr: 0

May: 5

June: 8

July: 9

Aug: 6

Sept: 6

Even his May numbers were buoyed by his great April. He should go back to not throwing the HR pitch.

[notin]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Crawford HR's by month '24:

Apr: 0

May: 5

June: 8

July: 9

Aug: 6

Sept: 6

Even his May numbers were buoyed by his great April. He should go back to not throwing the HR pitch.

His HR totals were heavily skewed by giving up 12 HRs in a 15 inning stretch against the Dodgers, Yankees, and Rangers.  In the other 168 IP, he surrendered 22 HRs, which actually is not an outrageous total.

Not sure if that bad stretch was fatigue, injury, tougher lineups, or some combination of the above…

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Sox interest in EVERYTHING is simply assumed now. 😄 

The scary thing is, the "interest" has stopped.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Crawford HR's by month '24:

Apr: 0

May: 5

June: 8

July: 9

Aug: 6

Sept: 6

Even his May numbers were buoyed by his great April. He should go back to not throwing the HR pitch.

Those monthlies look like they could also belong to a guy in the batter's box. Pitchers are always ahead of hitters early, and many sluggers heat up with the temps.

Hank Aaron career HRs by months: 93-129-150-152-127-104; in June and July, he let it fly. And the guy whose record he broke, the Babe: 48-133-141-147-124-121... again, June and July were the most powerful (I didn't bother to look up subsequent 500-homer men who may have been related to the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man).

For bitter Sox fans, the gopher ball made Crawford the Yoshida of pitchers. But as notin noted, he was great the first month, and overall good through July -- the month he walked one batter in five starts. 

Crawford may have worn down, but no injury was ever reported. And he was still reliable, because no pitcher in the majors had more games started in 2024.

[Bellhorn04]

10 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Hank Aaron career HRs by months: 93-129-150-152-127-104; in June and July, he let it fly.

The symmetry of that distribution is amazing.

[Bellhorn04]

So it appears the Sox pitching's wicked good April was attributable to a combo of the surprise factor of the revamped pitch mix, plus the cool weather.  Both very temporary advantages.  

[mvp 78]

Everyone that thinks bad weather reduces offense needs to explain this then:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS202303300.shtml

🤯

[moonslav59]

Why don't our bats slump in April?

[harmony]

The projected PECOTA standings are out:

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

[Bellhorn04]

33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Why don't our bats slump in April?

Have to look at who they played that month, too.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Have to look at who they played that month, too.

I remember Abreu was not a starter and Devers (10 gms) and Story (30 gms) missed time.

Most PAs in MAR-APR

142 Duran

110 Rafaela

94 EValdez

90 Casas

80's: Yoshida, Abreu, Devers

60-71: Wong, reyes, McGuire

42-56: Dalbec & DHam

30's: Story & Ref

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

The projected PECOTA standings are out:

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

12th in wins in the AL at 78. (77.6)

Sad.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I remember Abreu was not a starter and Devers (10 gms) and Story (30 gms) missed time.

Most PAs in MAR-APR

142 Duran

110 Rafaela

94 EValdez

90 Casas

80's: Yoshida, Abreu, Devers

60-71: Wong, reyes, McGuire

42-56: Dalbec & DHam

30's: Story & Ref

To clarify, I meant who they played against that month.

[harmony]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

12th in wins in the AL at 78. (77.6)

Sad.

Take the over but otherwise temper expectations.

[Bellhorn04]

13 minutes ago, harmony said:

Take the over but otherwise temper expectations.

We have you here for that.  😉

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

To clarify, I meant who they played against that month.

I have to do the grunt work?

First of all, we started off with the dreaded 10 game west coast trip and went 7-3.

We then got swept by BAL and went 3-4 vs LAA & CLE, at home.

We then went on teh road against hot PIT & CLE, going 4-2, then went home to take 2 of 3 vs the Cubs. We beat SFG in the final game in APR.

17-13 against only great teams!

 

LOL

[dgalehouse]

24 minutes ago, harmony said:

Take the over but otherwise temper expectations.

The Cooler.

[moonslav59]

I guess it's a done deal: we will suck in 2025, despite having what some consider the best and deepest rotation in MLB.

Guess the band... (No googling)

I wore my teeth in my hand

so I could mess the hair of the night

Hey, well I'm beginning to see the light...

[harmony]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I guess it's a done deal: we will suck in 2025, despite having what some consider the best and deepest rotation in MLB.

Some of the best Red Sox seasons came on the heels of pessimistic projections.

And vice versa.

The Red Sox pitching should be their strong suit.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

Some of the best Red Sox seasons came on the heels of pessimistic projections.

And vice versa.

The Red Sox pitching should be their strong suit.

I was just thinking this. Before 2013, I thought we were a year or two away, and that we had "played it halfway" with all the trades.

I never expected 2021 to happen, after that dreadful 2020 season, and getting next to nothing from Sale and additions like Richards.

On the flip side, I felt better about 2019 than 2021 and  2022 than  2024.

[Old Red]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I guess it's a done deal: we will suck in 2025, despite having what some consider the best and deepest rotation in MLB.

Guess the band... (No googling)

I wore my teeth in my hand

so I could mess the hair of the night

Hey, well I'm beginning to see the light...

Who is saying the Red Sox are considered to have the best, and deepest rotation in MLB?🤫

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Who is saying the Red Sox are considered to have the best, and deepest rotation in MLB?🤫

I meant to say the AL. My bad. 

We are being picked to finish 12th out of 15 in the AL, while fangraphs projects our rotation to be the best:

Projected fWAR

15.0 BOS

13.9 NYY & SEA

13.8 DET & MIN

As for the deepest, fangraphs projects only the Sox with 6 pitchers over a 1.1 fWAR. MIN & CIN have their 6th pitcher at 1.1. (Gio is 1.2)

ZIPS has this, but I did not check what other teams have for depth... (They assume these guys play the full season)

5: Crochet 4.0, Houck 2.8, Bello 2.5, Buehler 2.0, Sandoval 1.8

Depth: Crawford 1.6, Gio & Priester 1.5, Whitlock 1.3 (11 GS), Fitts & Wink 1.2 and Criswell 1.1

Certainly, some others do not have our rotation #1, and it is very debatable, for sure. The Yanks could easily best the Sox rotation. They added Fried but also lost Cortes (31 GS 3.77 ERA).

I'd say we should be top 3-4 in the AL and maybe top 10 in MLB, unless we have way more injuries than others.

We finished 7th in 2024.

We lost Pivetta (26 GS 4.14 ERA)

We added Crochet (32 GS 3.58) Buehler (12 GS 4.02)

and Sandoval (28 GS 4.11 in 2023) Giolito (33 GS 4.88 in 2023)

Hard to predict, but somebody likes our rotation.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Dodgers rotation: Ohtani, Snell, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Sasaki.

Red Sox rotation: Houck, Bello, Tommy John, Tommy John, Tommy John,

 

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Dodgers rotation: Ohtani, Snell, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Sasaki.

Red Sox rotation: Houck, Bello, Tommy John, Tommy John, Tommy John,

 

Tommy John was a Dodger.

Hey, I already admitted I meant to say "some" have us with the best rotation in the AL.

No way, we are better than this. (A couple other NL teams look better, too.)

[Old Red]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I meant to say the AL. My bad. 

We are being picked to finish 12th out of 15 in the AL, while fangraphs projects our rotation to be the best:

Projected fWAR

15.0 BOS

13.9 NYY & SEA

13.8 DET & MIN

As for the deepest, fangraphs projects only the Sox with 6 pitchers over a 1.1 fWAR. MIN & CIN have their 6th pitcher at 1.1. (Gio is 1.2)

ZIPS has this, but I did not check what other teams have for depth... (They assume these guys play the full season)

5: Crochet 4.0, Houck 2.8, Bello 2.5, Buehler 2.0, Sandoval 1.8

Depth: Crawford 1.6, Gio & Priester 1.5, Whitlock 1.3 (11 GS), Fitts & Wink 1.2 and Criswell 1.1

Certainly, some others do not have our rotation #1, and it is very debatable, for sure. The Yanks could easily best the Sox rotation. They added Fried but also lost Cortes (31 GS 3.77 ERA).

I'd say we should be top 3-4 in the AL and maybe top 10 in MLB, unless we have way more injuries than others.

We finished 7th in 2024.

We lost Pivetta (26 GS 4.14 ERA)

We added Crochet (32 GS 3.58) Buehler (12 GS 4.02)

and Sandoval (28 GS 4.11 in 2023) Giolito (33 GS 4.88 in 2023)

Hard to predict, but somebody likes our rotation.

 

Right now I’d take the healthiest rotation, and see what happens from there.

[moonslav59]

I will say, I do think our rotation has a lot of upside potential and depth. Some major questions remain, but every team has major questions about several of their starters.

I'm thinking this might be the best Sox rotation, on paper in February, since 2019. We all know how that turned out, so "on paper" means just that: paper.

We have a decent core of somewhat younger SP'ers returning: Houck, Bello & Crawford.

We have some decent depth in Criswell, Fitts, priester and Dobbins, although some are untested.

We've added some pitchers with with some very nice histories- some recent (Crochet,) some not too long ago (Buehler & Sandoval) and one a few years back (Giolito.)

Add them all together, and it's hard to know what we have, but there is some promise mixed in with all the question marks.

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Right now I’d take the healthiest rotation, and see what happens from there.

That's not the Dodgers.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 2/2/2025 at 5:57 PM, moonslav59 said:

Where are our extensions?

We seem to be going cheap, there too.

i think we are all waiting for the Crochet extension.  could be a LONG wait