Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[Hugh2]

What do you think their payroll will be and who do you think they will sign?

 

Best guess? If they chose to not go over the Lu out tax? $227 million dollars opening day.

 

Who they spend it on? No ideal, but they have very little to no real needs on offense where guys like Marcelo Mayer/Kristian Campbell/Trevor Story/Roman Anthony can’t and won’t fill; they ain’t going out and spending 9 figures on William Adames.

 

Maybe they get an O’Neill type, a bench bat, lock up a guy and get a couple middling pitchers. But it would be the perfect time to go big in the pitching market

[moonslav59]

Best guess? If they chose to not go over the Lu out tax? $227 million dollars opening day.

 

Who they spend it on? No ideal, but they have very little to no real needs on offense where guys like Marcelo Mayer/Kristian Campbell/Trevor Story/Roman Anthony can’t and won’t fill; they ain’t going out and spending 9 figures on William Adames.

 

Maybe they get an O’Neill type, a bench bat, lock up a guy and get a couple middling pitchers. But it would be the perfect time to go big in the pitching market

 

The CB Tax line has been...

$185 '20 (adjusted)

$208 '21

$236 '22

$225 '23

~$224 '24

 

It might not be as hard to predict as I and others have been indicating.

 

Next year's tax line is $241M, so my guess is the 2025 CB line might be between $210 and $240, but more likely between $220-230M. Let's say it's $225M. After paying relatively low arb costs, due to all being year one, to Duran, Houck and Crawford, I have us at about $145M. That could mean we have a winter AAV budget of about $80.

 

That seems like a lot, but we will need a big chunk of that to just stay even with the Jansen, Martin, Pivetta and O'Neill replacements. Still, we should be able to fill 4-6 slots with some top quality players at $80M.

 

It could be...

4 x $20M/yr

5 x $16.5M/yr

6 x $13.5M/yr

 

A better way might be:

 

$28M SP1

$18M SP3

$12M Closer

$10M SP5

$7M RP

$5M RP

 

Somehow, this just doesn't seem like what JH will approve, so forget everything I just said.

 

 

[Randy Red Sox]

Best guess? If they chose to not go over the Lu out tax? $227 million dollars opening day.

 

Who they spend it on? No ideal, but they have very little to no real needs on offense where guys like Marcelo Mayer/Kristian Campbell/Trevor Story/Roman Anthony can’t and won’t fill; they ain’t going out and spending 9 figures on William Adames.

 

Maybe they get an O’Neill type, a bench bat, lock up a guy and get a couple middling pitchers. But it would be the perfect time to go big in the pitching market

 

QUALITY P costs more than JH is willing to cough/barf up

[moonslav59]

QUALITY P costs more than JH is willing to cough/barf up

 

More than the $313M/10 he gave Devers?

[Hugh2]

QUALITY P costs more than JH is willing to cough/barf up

 

Yes, so like I’ve been saying. There a difference between not spending and then spending poorly. The Sox investments into pitching the past decade have been disastrous

[notin]

QUALITY P costs more than JH is willing to cough/barf up

 

Not true.

 

Unless you’re only talking about money. My belief (re: the truth of the matter) is ownership would greatly prefer dealing prospects/players to spending money. Fans often feel the other way, but then it’s not their money.

 

The Sox have a couple potential crunches in the infield and outfielder next season. I could see the Sox dealing from this depth, but if you want really good pitching, Duran or Anthony are more likely than Abreu. And Mayer will be more desired than Grissom or Story…

[notin]

More than the $313M/10 he gave Devers?

 

Devers’ AAV is the same as Price got way back in December, 2015..,

[Bellhorn04]

Devers’ AAV is the same as Price got way back in December, 2015..,

 

Yep. But the total commitment is about $100 million more.

 

Both players got paid at or close to the top of the market, that's for sure.

[notin]

Yep. But the total commitment is about $100 million more.

 

Both players got paid at or close to the top of the market, that's for sure.

 

Devers got more years, but he was also 6 years younger (I think).

[Bellhorn04]

Devers got more years, but he was also 6 years younger (I think).

 

Price definitely got paid more for what he'd done than for what he was capable of doing.

[Randy Red Sox]

Best guess? If they chose to not go over the Lu out tax? $227 million dollars opening day.

 

Who they spend it on? No ideal, but they have very little to no real needs on offense where guys like Marcelo Mayer/Kristian Campbell/Trevor Story/Roman Anthony can’t and won’t fill; they ain’t going out and spending 9 figures on William Adames.

 

Maybe they get an O’Neill type, a bench bat, lock up a guy and get a couple middling pitchers. But it would be the perfect time to go big in the pitching market

 

And what pitching would you target?

[Randy Red Sox]

Devers’ AAV is the same as Price got way back in December, 2015..,

 

I truly believe the only reason Henry approved the Devers extension was because of the uproar from RSN over the Mookie trade. I also believe that the Story signing was as a result of letting Bogaerts go. We got hosed in the Mookie trade and I don't believe we even got a comp pick for letting Bogaerts walk. 2 HORRIBLE moves that have set this team back greatly.

[moonslav59]

Devers’ AAV is the same as Price got way back in December, 2015..,

 

Okay.

 

We don't keep him with an offer of $217M/7, so what's the point?

 

Plus, my point is we spent on pitching from 2016 to Sale/Nate (2019-2020) and stopped after that (Devers, Story & Yoshi.) Thanks for reinforcing it.

[moonslav59]

I truly believe the only reason Henry approved the Devers extension was because of the uproar from RSN over the Mookie trade. I also believe that the Story signing was as a result of letting Bogaerts go. We got hosed in the Mookie trade and I don't believe we even got a comp pick for letting Bogaerts walk. 2 HORRIBLE moves that have set this team back greatly.

 

I totally agree, but the fact is he DID spend bigly on a player in 2024, and it was an everyday player.

 

The Story signing was the next biggest deal. $100M on Yoshi's was the third biggest deal. The biggest trade after DD was Betts, and did we get a pitcher for him?

 

NO!

 

JH has spent money. He has not spent as much as 6-8 other GM who jumped our spending, and he hasn't spent big on SP'ers since Sale & Nate.

 

We need to trade or spend on pitching. We cannot keep counting on the same guys to do better or fill roles they were not meant to fill.

 

Whitlock and Crawford belong in the pen.

Bello should be a 5IP SP'er, hence the need for longmen like Whit & Craw.

[Bellhorn04]

You also have to include the extension for Cora in the spending. Plus the money they've invested in pitching development people etc. Stuff we don't see in Cot's Contracts.

 

Henry is still spending, I have to agree. It's just frustrating to see the team continue to have such middling results on the field. And some of the decisions about the rotation are just baffling-like thinking that swapping Sale for Giolito was all that needed to be done.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You also have to include the extension for Cora in the spending. Plus the money they've invested in pitching development people etc. Stuff we don't see in Cot's Contracts.

 

Henry is still spending, I have to agree. It's just frustrating to see the team continue to have such middling results on the field. And some of the decisions about the rotation are just baffling-like thinking that swapping Sale for Giolito was all that needed to be done.

 

They really didn't think that; they knew what they were doing.

 

They also know what needs to be done -- and have for years... to win... but also, to just field a full team in order to turn a profit.

 

They've just chosen to do the latter, lately.

 

As for the former -- not right now... not yet... (hopefully, for our sakes, it won't be never again).

[notin]

I truly believe the only reason Henry approved the Devers extension was because of the uproar from RSN over the Mookie trade. I also believe that the Story signing was as a result of letting Bogaerts go. We got hosed in the Mookie trade and I don't believe we even got a comp pick for letting Bogaerts walk. 2 HORRIBLE moves that have set this team back greatly.

 

They signed Story year before Bogaerts left. The two played together for a season.

 

I don’t know if they didn’t want Bogaerts or they didn’t want him at h his expected contract. I only know that they are closer to him and his demands than I am, and that Bogaerts’ agent (Scott Boras) is not a guy a player hires when he wants to give a hometown discount…

[notin]

You also have to include the extension for Cora in the spending. Plus the money they've invested in pitching development people etc. Stuff we don't see in Cot's Contracts.

 

Henry is still spending, I have to agree. It's just frustrating to see the team continue to have such middling results on the field. And some of the decisions about the rotation are just baffling-like thinking that swapping Sale for Giolito was all that needed to be done.

 

If Giolito was the guy with 140 IP and Sale had 0, I think we’d all feel differently about this deal. And given both of them from 2020-2023, that was the far more likely outcome…

[moonslav59]

They really didn't think that; they knew what they were doing.

 

They also know what needs to be done -- and have for years... to win... but also, to just field a full team in order to turn a profit.

 

They've just chosen to do the latter, lately.

 

As for the former -- not right now... not yet... (hopefully, for our sakes, it won't be never again).

 

If you think about it, had Gio given us 25 GS and 150 IP, by today, and just a 4.20 to 4.50 ERA, we'd have not only saved the pen from a lot of IP'd but also not seen any starts like...

6 Wink

3 Bernardino

3 Paxton

2 Kelly

1 Anderson

and 10 less from Criswell, Pivetta or Crawford.

 

Had we been able to move Crawford to the pen, when he started showing signs of breaking down, the difference might have been enormous.

 

I know... "maybe, maybe, maybe" and "everyone has injuries, and we need to plan for them," but if just this one thing came true, I think we'd be ahead of HOU, MIN and maybe KCR, right now. We'd be within a couple games of BAL & NYY.

 

Yes, if each other team were give the same gift, we'd be right where we are now- or worse off.

[Bellhorn04]

If Giolito was the guy with 140 IP and Sale had 0, I think we’d all feel differently about this deal. And given both of them from 2020-2023, that was the far more likely outcome…

 

Couple other things though:

 

-Giolito pitched to a 7 ERA his last 2 months of action, and we really have no clue why.

-If Giolito was healthy and pitching well, folks would be bitching about the fact he'd likely opt out at the end of the season.

 

It was a questionable signing/contract for various reasons.

[Maxbialystock]

More than the $313M/10 he gave Devers?

 

Whoa, Nellie. Allow me to point out that Devers--complete failure though he no doubt is with RISP--has actually played in games. Lots of games.

 

Meanwhile, there's a pretty good list of pricey Sox starters--Beckett, Lackey, Price, Sale, Giolito--who sat out entire seasons because of injuries. And that's important because the Sox over the years have been lousy at developing good starters in their minor league system. So they have had to go out and buy them.

 

And that actually worked pretty well during the first 16 or so seasons of the JH era--well enough to secure 4 WS wins after 86 years of frustration.

 

However, in 2019 the Sox had the highest payroll in MLB, but couldn't make the playoffs because the pitching, which included some well paid guys like Price, Sale, Porcello, and Eovaldi--whose combined salaries added up to $84M--was ranked freaking 19th in team ERA. In fact, it was 4.70.

 

This year's bargain basement pitching staff--except for Sale and Giolito, neither of whom is pitching for the Sox-- is ranked 21st in team ERA, which is 4.19.

 

Back to 2019. By the end of that season, the world's greatest CBO, David Dombrowski, had to tell owner John Henry that he needed a whole bunch more money than the highest payroll in MLB because he needed to outbid the Dodgers for Mookie Betts and he needed to replace Price and Sale while still paying their big salaries.

 

I completely agree with you that the Sox--and JH--need to invest in pitching. I also think the team payroll needs to get back up to maybe the top 5 in MLB--or whatever number you think is workable.

 

On the other hand, I also believe Devers has been a good investment if only because he actually shows up for work and this year has an OPS of .947, 6th best in MLB, and is tied for 10th most total bases in MLB.

 

The Sox are paying him $29M for that. They are paying Sale and Giolito $17M + $19M = $36M. And neither one has pitched a single inning for the Sox.

 

See the difference?

[Randy Red Sox]

They signed Story year before Bogaerts left. The two played together for a season.

 

I don’t know if they didn’t want Bogaerts or they didn’t want him at h his expected contract. I only know that they are closer to him and his demands than I am, and that Bogaerts’ agent (Scott Boras) is not a guy a player hires when he wants to give a hometown discount…

 

I believe they KNEW they were not going to sign Bogaerts so they brought in Story who has been an unmitigated disaster.

[notin]

Couple other things though:

 

-Giolito pitched to a 7 ERA his last 2 months of action, and we really have no clue why.

-If Giolito was healthy and pitching well, folks would be bitching about the fact he'd likely opt out at the end of the season.

 

It was a questionable signing/contract for various reasons.

 

Yes he had a 7 ERA. He also pitched on 3 teams and got divorced in that timeframe. I suppose it’s also possible he had a ligament issue at that time. He has a a fairly good-sized career of not being a 7 ERA pitcher.

 

It was a one year deal. If he opts out, the Sox make a QO, which he likely rejects since it was roughly the same size as the option he rejected. If he does accept you get your second year…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Couple other things though:

 

-Giolito pitched to a 7 ERA his last 2 months of action, and we really have no clue why.

-If Giolito was healthy and pitching well, folks would be bitching about the fact he'd likely opt out at the end of the season.

 

It was a questionable signing/contract for various reasons.

 

Again, it only made sense to the Red Sox front office. He sucked for two years.

 

And, all Moon's maybes could have also come true if Boston had instead traded for Burnes or signed Montgomery (sure, he's had a crap year, but who knows how different it would've been if Boras got him signed for a normal spring training, and he worked out of the same home as his wife, who was interning in Beantown.

 

Monty, btw, just told the press that Boras is the one who blew it with the Sox last winter...

[notin]

I believe they KNEW they were not going to sign Bogaerts so they brought in Story who has been an unmitigated disaster.

 

Bogaerts is having a rough year, too. .691 OPS and already moved off position. But hey, only 9 years left!

 

And did you believe the Sox knew they wouldn’t sign Bogaerts because his contract would be too big orb they didn’t want him at any price?

[Bellhorn04]

It was a one year deal. If he opts out, the Sox make a QO, which he likely rejects since it was roughly the same size as the option he rejected. If he does accept you get your second year…

 

More than likely he'd opt out.

 

And it was a 2 year guarantee for Giolito, so now we pay double.

 

I'm not a fan of the deal at all.

[Bellhorn04]

Bogaerts is having a rough year, too. .691 OPS and already moved off position. But hey, only 9 years left!

 

And did you believe the Sox knew they wouldn’t sign Bogaerts because his contract would be too big orb they didn’t want him at any price?

 

They didn't make him a real extension offer, so we'll never know if he would have accepted it or not.

[notin]

More than likely he'd opt out.

 

And it was a 2 year guarantee for Giolito, so now we pay double.

 

I'm not a fan of the deal at all.

 

It would look better if he actually pitched…

[moonslav59]

So, maybe JH does not want to pay today's prices for some better SP'ers. Might he agree to trade for some higher priced players that could be on the trading block, this winter (on teams not looking too good for 2025.)

 

Signed Deals:

Luis Castillo $22.8M x 3 SEA (vesting option $25M)

Tyler Anderson $13M x 2 LAA

Hunter Greene $8.8M x 4 w option CIN

Logan Webb $18M x 4 SFG

Mitch Keller $15.4M x 4 PIT

J. Tailon $17M x 2 CHC

Jordan Hicks $11M x 3 SFG

Sandy Alcanatara $17.3M x 2 MIA

Kevin Gausman $23M x 2 TOR

Chris Bassitt $22M x 1 TOR

Jose Berios $19M x 2 then $24M x 2 (18.7 AAV) TOR

Blake Snell $31M/1 SFG (opt out)

Robbie Ray $23M x 2 SFG

 

Arb Pitchers (2024 pay & arbs remaining)

Tarik Skubal ($2.7M: 2 of 3 arbs remaining) DET

Gilbert Logan ($4M: 2nd of 4) SEA

George Kirby ($800K: 1 of 4) SEA

Garrett Crochet ($800K: 2 of 3 arbs) CWS

Justin Steele ($4M: 2 of 4)

MacK. Gore ($749: 1 of 3) WSH

Nick Lodolo ($760K: 1 of 3) CIN

Bailey Falter ($755K: 1 of 4) PIT

Patrick Sandoval ($5M: 3rd of 4 arbs) LAA

Reid Detmers ($770K: 1 of 3) LAA

Braxton Garrett ($760K: 1 of 4) MIA

Edward Cabrera ($761K: 1 of 4) MIA

Cal Quantrill ($6.6M: 4 of 4) COL

Austin Gomber ($3.2M: 3 of 3) COL

Casey Mize ($830K 2 of 3) DET

Zack Littell ($1.9M 3 of 3) TBR

Aaron Civale ($4.9M: 3 of 3) TBR

 

Pre-Arbs

Brice Miller & Bryan Woo SEA

Taj Bradley & Rene Pepiot TBR

Kyle Harrison and Keaton Winn SFG

Jake Irvin, DJ Herz & Mitchell Parker WSH

Andrew Abbott CIN, Jared Jones PIT, JP Sears OAK, Reese Olson DET

 

 

 

[Hugh2]

I believe they KNEW they were not going to sign Bogaerts so they brought in Story who has been an unmitigated disaster.

 

Their final offer to Bogaerts was more than what they paid Story.