Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Always possible:

 

1b: Devers

2b: Grissom

3b: Story

SS: Mayer

 

Or 3b could be a free agent. Options besides Chapman include Bregman (ugh), Moncada (major health issues) or Eugenio Suarez (low BA/OBP, but solid RHH power)…

 

Surprised you didn't just flip Story and Mayer. We know Trevor can shortstop, and we know some scouts have speculated Marcelo could be a candidate to shift to 3B.

 

Ya, Story is the injury-prone old man, but his workout ethic should keep him in shape to play good D through the end of his contract... when someone like Arias or Cespedes should be ready for showtime. Could Mayer morph into a southpaw-swinging Machado or ARod (without the assholishness)?

[moonslav59]

Thoughts

 

C: Teel, Wong

1b: Devers

2b: Grissom

3b: Eugenio Suarez (free agent. Still good D using UZR and OAA. Likely to take a one year deal)

SS: Story, to start the year.

LF: Duran

CF: Rafaela

RF: Anthony. If he gets a Rafaela type extension, Super Two is not a concern.

 

SP: Houck, Bello, Crawford, Bryce Miller (acquired for Casas and Abreu) and another (Pivetta?)

RP: Hendriks, Whitlock, Winckowski, Slaten, Kelly plus 3 others TBD

 

Mayer can start in Worcester and come up if Story gets hurt or a Grissom just flops…

 

I could see something like this.

 

(No Gio?)

[mvp 78]

Surprised you didn't just flip Story and Mayer. We know Trevor can shortstop, and we know some scouts have speculated Marcelo could be a candidate to shift to 3B.

 

Ya, Story is the injury-prone old man, but his workout ethic should keep him in shape to play good D through the end of his contract... when someone like Arias or Cespedes should be ready for showtime. Could Mayer morph into a southpaw-swinging Machado or ARod (without the assholishness)?

 

Mayer will flip to 3B at some point. I think he'll be fine there through his arb years or until a better SS comes along (not unhealthy Story).

 

Cespedes is NOT a SS. He may not even be an IFer.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Mayer will flip to 3B at some point. I think he'll be fine there through his arb years or until a better SS comes along (not unhealthy Story).

 

Cespedes is NOT a SS. He may not even be an IFer.

 

I know -- could be a righty Valdez. Then again, a few years back, Duran was NOT an outfielder... even when he played it in the majors. Then again again, Franchy was not a fielder, anywhere.

[harmony]

I imagine Mayer starts in Polar Park, in case Story continues his MIA streak. Grissom, like him or not, is going to get a legitimate shot someplace. They paid up on Sale to get this guy. They’re not relegating him to AAAA utility infielder after 80 PA.

 

If they deal Casas for pitching and move Devers to 1b, that does leave 3b open. Grissom?

 

Casas doesn’t match up with any Seattle pitcher on BTV. But Casas plus Abreu is roughly equal to Bryce Miller on that site. Moving Abreu frees up right field for the on oncoming Roman Anthony Express…

I imagine Mayer starts in Polar Park, in case Story continues his MIA streak. Grissom, like him or not, is going to get a legitimate shot someplace. They paid up on Sale to get this guy. They’re not relegating him to AAAA utility infielder after 80 PA.

 

If they deal Casas for pitching and move Devers to 1b, that does leave 3b open. Grissom?

 

Casas doesn’t match up with any Seattle pitcher on BTV. But Casas plus Abreu is roughly equal to Bryce Miller on that site. Moving Abreu frees up right field for the on oncoming Roman Anthony Express…

So ... Triston Casas, Wilyer Abreu and Masataka Yoshida for Bryce Miller, Mitch Haniger and Mitch Garver.

 

The Red Sox would feel a luxury tax squeeze in 2025 but would get out from under Yoshida's contract through 2027. Despite his hitting woes, Garver has been serviceable in 17 games behind the plate this year.

 

This is just silly.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/seattle-mariners/yearly

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/yearly

[moonslav59]

As far as ever day players go, we look pretty set for 2025 and beyond, even if we do not replace O'Neill and D Jansen or Refsnyder after 2025. We are certainly LHB heavy, and our top 3 prospects all bat LH'd, so maybe a swap of a LHB for a RHB would make sense, but either way, we have a solid 9 and solid depth and prospects at just about every position. Some of the depth is barely replacement level, but we do have some very promising prospects that should be better than replacement level, quickly.

 

Here is a look at the depth chart with prospects farther than 1 year away in parenthesis.

 

C: Wong, Teel, Gasper, Heineman, Hickey (DH) (Jo Garcia, Brannon)

1B: Casas, Romy, Jordan (J Gonzalez)

2B: Story/Mayer, Grissom, DHam, Romy, Campbell, Sogard, E Valdez (DH) (Cespedes)

SS: Mayer/Story, DHam-Romy, Meidroth, Romero (Arias, Riemer)

3B: Devers, Mayer/Story, Romy, Meidroth (Zanetello, Cason, Anderson)

LF: Duran, Refsnyder/Abreu, Yoshida (DH) E Valdez, Campbell (Castro. Ehrhard. Turner)

CF: Rafaela, Duran, Anthony, Campbell (Bleis, Jh Garcia)

RF: Abreu-Refsnyder, Anthony, Campbell

DH: Yoshida, Devers/Casas, EValdez, Campbell, Hickey (Jo Garcia)

[moonslav59]

So ... Triston Casas, Wilyer Abreu and Masataka Yoshida for Bryce Miller, Mitch Haniger and Mitch Garver.

 

The Red Sox would feel a luxury tax squeeze in 2025 but would get out from under Yoshida's contract through 2027. Despite his hitting woes, Garver has been serviceable in 17 games behind the plate this year.

 

This is just silly.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/seattle-mariners/yearly

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/yearly

 

I guess Haniger would offset some of Yoshida's cost, and he does bat RH'd, but he's 33 and has 2 straight seasons under .640.

 

Garver is another 33 y/o RHB, but he offers more hope on O and could back up Wong until Teel is ready.

 

I think maybe Casas, Abreu & Yoshida plus cash for Miller, a RPer and Garver might do it.

[mvp 78]

I know -- could be a righty Valdez. Then again, a few years back, Duran was NOT an outfielder... even when he played it in the majors. Then again again, Franchy was not a fielder, anywhere.

 

Duran was at least athletic enough that there was a chance he could figure it out. Sox are already moving Cespedes off SS and probably to OF. Being out for the season hurts the evaluation though.

[moonslav59]

Duran was at least athletic enough that there was a chance he could figure it out. Sox are already moving Cespedes off SS and probably to OF. Being out for the season hurts the evaluation though.

 

You don't think 2B or 3B will work?

[notin]

I could see something like this.

 

(No Gio?)

 

I forgot about Giolito. He is perfectly welcome to come join the Sox and assume his rightful place on the Injured List…

[moonslav59]

I forgot about Giolito. He is perfectly welcome to come join the Sox and assume his rightful place on the Injured List…

 

That could well happen, but I would place him as our 3rd best SP'er going into 2025:

1. Houck

2. Bello

3. Gio

4. Criswell

5. Crawford

 

(I hope we stop thinking of Whitlock as SP'er depth, once and for all.)

[mvp 78]

You don't think 2B or 3B will work?

 

It's not me saying it, it's what the SoxProspects guys are hearing. I haven't seen him play one inning.

[notin]

That could well happen, but I would place him as our 3rd best SP'er going into 2025:

1. Houck

2. Bello

3. Gio

4. Criswell

5. Crawford

 

(I hope we stop thinking of Whitlock as SP'er depth, once and for all.)

 

I assumed Whitlock’s time in the rotation was done when Bloom got fired. So either Breslow is too much like Bloom or it was never part of the strategy of either one. …

[Bellhorn04]

I forgot about Giolito. He is perfectly welcome to come join the Sox and assume his rightful place on the Injured List…

 

Or the Suck List.

[Bellhorn04]

I assumed Whitlock’s time in the rotation was done when Bloom got fired. So either Breslow is too much like Bloom or it was never part of the strategy of either one. …

 

Makes you think it just might be an "organization decision" rather than a "CBO decision".

[mvp 78]

Makes you think it just might be an "organization decision" rather than a "CBO decision".

 

Breslow probably deferred a lot of decisions the first Spring Training. I can't blame him. 165 guys he has to learn, not even including coaching staff and administrative folx.

[notin]

Makes you think it just might be an "organization decision" rather than a "CBO decision".

 

Or made by another person still around. Could be Cora…

[Bellhorn04]

Or made by another person still around. Could be Cora…

 

I'm sure he was consulted, but I'm picturing a committee. There might even be a Whitlock Committee...

[moonslav59]

I could be wrong, but I think we had Whitlock ahead of Houck on the rotation depth chart, which to me says Whitlock was no emergency starter, this year.

 

I'm not sure about 2025, but I hope they finally learn the lesson.

[Bellhorn04]

I could be wrong, but I think we had Whitlock ahead of Houck on the rotation depth chart, which to me says Whitlock was no emergency starter, this year.

 

I'm not sure about 2025, but I hope they finally learn the lesson.

 

I doubt it. Cheap starters are the holy grail for these guys.

[mvp 78]

I could be wrong, but I think we had Whitlock ahead of Houck on the rotation depth chart, which to me says Whitlock was no emergency starter, this year.

 

I'm not sure about 2025, but I hope they finally learn the lesson.

 

The rotation started out as: Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock, Houck

[moonslav59]

I doubt it. Cheap starters are the holy grail for these guys.

 

Well, Whitlock replacing $16M Jansen as the closer would be a big savings, too.

 

Hendriks would be a cheaper Chris Martin, too.

[moonslav59]

The rotation started out as: Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock, Houck

 

Yes, and word was that had Gio not gotten hurt, Houck would be the odd man out, so it looks to me like someone(s) really likes Whit as a starter.

[mvp 78]

Yes, and word was that had Gio not gotten hurt, Houck would be the odd man out, so it looks to me like someone(s) really likes Whit as a starter.

 

Whitlock looked great in ST. The guy who looked left behind was Bello.

[moonslav59]

Whitlock looked great in ST. The guy who looked left behind was Bello.

 

Whit looked great in his first 4 starts, too. He was a big part of our April eye-opening rotation ERA.

0.82 Pivetta (2 GS)

1.35 Crawford (6)

1.60 Houck (6)

1.65 Criswell (3)

1.96 Whitlock (4)

3.04 Bello (5)

3.50 Wink (2)

[moonslav59]

It's impossible to predict with any accuracy how well all our returning players will do in 2025, but when it comes to how we feel about many of our players, now vs how we felt over this past winter, I'm thinking most are viewed more positively.

 

Devers is heading for a career high in OPS+ and is still in his peak prime years.

Duran was largely a big question mark over the winter, but is now a pretty sure bet. He may even get better, next year.

Rafaela has shown he can play excellent CF defense and has hit .791 in his last 243 PAs, but maybe .700 to .725 is about all we can expect for a while.

Wong might be the most likely player to think his OPS (.775) might decline in '25.

Abreu has a career .900 OPS vs RHPs, but is under .500 vs LHPs.

Refsnyder offers the perfect platoon for Abreu, as he has been a top 25 MLB hitter vs LHPs over the past 3 years.

Yoshida seems to have found his groove and looks to be an .800+ batter, going forward.

DHam & Romy have given us decent back-up play, this year, combining for about a .745 OPS and nearly 40 SBs in just 530 PAs.)

Casas is a bit of a question mark, but staying near his .838 career OPS or better seems reasonable to expect.

Grissom and Story remain the biggest question marks, along with any rookies getting the call in 2025.

 

On the pitching front, we might be okay, if we only counted on the following pitchers for the roles listed, here:

 

SP3-4: Gio

SP3-4: Houck

SP4-5: Bello

SP5-6: Crawford

SP7-8: Criswell & Whitlock (long relief)

SP9: Priester, Fitts, Dobbins

 

RP3: Whitlock

RP4: Hendriks

RP5: Slaten

RP6: Fulmer

RP7: Wink

RP8: Kelly, Bernardino, Booser, Weissert, ICampbell, Guerrero, Mata

 

To me, this shows the bare minimum 4 major pitching additions away from having a decent staff.

SP1

SP2

Closer

Set UP

[moonslav59]

Here are the top SP'ers by fWAR that might be available, this winter:

 

FA

3.0 Burnes

2.7 Flaherty

2.0 Snell

2.1 Fried

1.9 Eovaldi

2.7 Kikuchi

2.3 Wacha

1.8 Heaney

1.5 Severino

Monty, Verlander, Scherzer, Morton

 

Trade

4.5 Skubal DET

3.8 Crochet CWS

3.7 Kirby SEA

3.2 Gilbert SEA

2.7 Bibee CLE & Eflin

2.5 Castillo SEA

2.4 Miller SEA

2.2 Jon Gray TEX

2.0 Woo SEA

1.8 Gausman & Bassitt TOR

1.7 Taillon CHC

1.3 Sandoval LAA

[Larry Cook]

Thoughts

 

C: Teel, Wong

1b: Devers

2b: Grissom, Hamilton

3b: meidroth

SS: Story

LF: Duran, refsynder

CF: Rafaela

RF: abreau

 

SP: Houck, Bello, Crawford, Bryce Miller (acquired for Casas, and fitts) and free agent fries from Atlanta.

RP: Hendriks, Whitlock, Winckowski, Slaten, Kelly plus 3 others TBD;

 

Amended

[notin]

Amended

 

I will wager key organs within my body that, barring injury, Chase Meidroth is not the Sox starting 3b next year…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Breslow probably deferred a lot of decisions the first Spring Training. I can't blame him. 165 guys he has to learn, not even including coaching staff and administrative folx.

 

Don't forget he also had Netflix cameras dogging him -- and a bad haircut that needed to grow out.