A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I know you were, just josh winking you. 

So... would you rather they sign Soto for $60 million per year, and trade Duran and Anthony for real pitchers... or keep the homegrowns and spread that same $60 mil budget to ink three legitimate MLB arms?

I do think Soto is a fantastic talent, but signing him wrecks the goals set forth by management. 
I am all for trading anybody on our current roster, except devers and rafeala for pitching 

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, notin said:

Again, the “full throttle” thing is on the fans.  Our big problem was a failure to understand that “full throttle” meant “status quo, with a few possible steps in reverse.”   Thankfully Werner set that record straight.

 

This off-season, the Sox office will undoubtedly tell us to prepare for the jump to Ludicrous Speed…

Imagine if the actually tried being honest or at least not dishonest or deceptive.

I'm not sure any GM is totally honest and forthcoming, but these guys take the cake.

[moonslav59]

46 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I do think Soto is a fantastic talent, but signing him wrecks the goals set forth by management. 
I am all for trading anybody on our current roster, except devers and rafeala for pitching 

Rafaela is one of your keepers?

[moonslav59]

Hell, why not sign Soto & Bregman and then trade Casas, Rafaela, Grissom & Abreu for pitching.

1. L Duran CF

2. L Devers 1B

3. L Soto LF

4. R Bregman 3B

5. L Anthony RF

6. R Campbell 2B (L DHam)

7.  L Yoshida DH (R Refsnyder)

8. R Story SS (L- Mayer)

9. R Wong C (L Teel)

LMAO!

[Larry Cook]

59 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Rafaela is one of your keepers?

Yes. I think he develops into an amazing player in two years 

[moonslav59]

53 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Yes. I think he develops into an amazing player in two years 

I like his chances more than most, and trading him now, would not bring back all that much, so even if you are half right, then he should be a "keeper."

Here are the guys I really want to keep, but would trade for the right return: Anthony, Duran & Campbell.

Devers is not on the list due to the contract and the idea that JH will have a limited budget for the remainder of his contract. (What we pay Devers, we don't pay someone else.)

2nd tier: Teel & Houck (maybe Devers)

3rd tier: Devers, Abreu, Bello, Slaten, Mayer, Arias, Cespedes, JH Garcia

4th tier: Casas, Rafaela, Crawford, Whitlock

[Maxbialystock]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I like his chances more than most, and trading him now, would not bring back all that much, so even if you are half right, then he should be a "keeper."

Here are the guys I really want to keep, but would trade for the right return: Anthony, Duran & Campbell.

Devers is not on the list due to the contract and the idea that JH will have a limited budget for the remainder of his contract. (What we pay Devers, we don't pay someone else.)

2nd tier: Teel & Houck (maybe Devers)

3rd tier: Devers, Abreu, Bello, Slaten, Mayer, Arias, Cespedes, JH Garcia

4th tier: Casas, Rafaela, Crawford, Whitlock

You lost me completely with the tiers and especially the phrase, "really want to keep but would trade for the right return."  I think what you are really saying is that the Sox should be willing to trade anyone on the 40 man roster for almost anyone on someone else's roster.  

 

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

You lost me completely with the tiers and especially the phrase, "really want to keep but would trade for the right return."  I think what you are really saying is that the Sox should be willing to trade anyone on the 40 man roster for almost anyone on someone else's roster.  

 

Shouldn't everyone agree to a trade where they think the return package is better and better for the team's needs?

Now, if someone has such an inflated view of a player that no reasonable suggested trade would ever tilt the balance to supporting the idea of the trade, I can understand, but to say a player is "untouchable" seems odd, to me.

I'd love to keep Anthony. The uy could be the next superstar in MLB. I fully realize the risk involved with trading him and his upside potential. I don't want to do it.

However, what I also don't want is for us to neglect vastly improving our pitching staff, and I realize you have to give great value to get great value, and I really like our OF, now. I also think Campbell can play the OF and JH Garcia is the real deal. We also drafted Montgomery, but he is much farther away than Anthony.

I'm sure what I'd demand for Anthony, but I'm sure there are some reasonable offers I would consider.

I would NOT trade Anthony for just 2 years of Skubal. (I'm not sure DET would, either.) If he agreed to a reasonable extension, I probably would, and then bite my nails in fear that Anthony becomes the next Betts fiasco.

[Randy Red Sox]

23 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We won our 78th game of the season, so we can't have a worse record than 2022 and 2023. 

I'm not sure what the "magic number" is, but I'm sure it ain't a pretty one. We still have 3 teams ahead of us and are tied with the Rays  for the 9th and 10th best record in the AL (or 6th worst.)

We are 2 behind SEA with 6 to go.

3 behind MIN, who we needed to sweep.

4 behind KCR and DET.

The fat lady is still singing loudly, but it would be nice to finish over .500, which would mean we'd have to go 4-2.

We play 3 at TOR- day off- and 3 vs TBR, so there is a chance we could go 0-6 and finish in last or tied for last, depending on how TOR finishes.

3rd place and 82-80 would be nice, but it kinda rings hollow after we had a hopeful stretch back before the ASB.

yeah 82-80 and moving down a few spots in the draft is a sure win

[Hugh2]

Soto is going to get between 500-600 million. 

He's getting paid 40 million plus a year.  Book it. 

Imagine not being able to spend on pitching, but adding that when you have Duran/Rafaela/Abreu out there with the #1 prospect in the game arguably MLB ready? (and another guy who is arguably top ten and can play the outfield)

I would cheer like a little school girl if the Sox sign Soto, but it just feels grossly irresponsible given this teams needs. 

[Hugh2]

10 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

yeah 82-80 and moving down a few spots in the draft is a sure win

The interesting thing is that Oakland and CHW are both in eligible for a top ten pick and can't pick any higher than 11/12.

So only two team stands between the Sox and a top ten pick again. 

One game seperates them and the Giants in the standings for the #9 pick. 

[mvp 78]

Bregman is a dead pull hitter whose numbers get inflated with the short porch in HOU. At Fenway, a lot of those HR's turn into doubles and singles. I don't know how well his game will translate to BOS. In theory, he could be a good fit (RHB, decent defender I believe, good contact skills). 

[Randy Red Sox]

12 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

The interesting thing is that Oakland and CHW are both in eligible for a top ten pick and can't pick any higher than 11/12.

So only two team stands between the Sox and a top ten pick again. 

One game seperates them and the Giants in the standings for the #9 pick. 

don't worry.  Sox will screw it up by winning just enough games to stay up in the order

[moonslav59]

10 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

yeah 82-80 and moving down a few spots in the draft is a sure win

No matter what we do, you'll find something.

[moonslav59]

No miracle is happening, this year, but it is interesting that we got to 5 games left  and are not eliminated, mathematically.

82-74 DET & KCR

81-75 MIN -1.0

81-76 SEA -1.5

79-78 BOS -3.5 (needing to pass 3 teams)

78-78 TBR -4.0

There is nothing to be happy about when missing the playoffs in any given season, and 3 in a row really sucks.

I do see an improved 26 man roster. A vastly improved 40 man roster, and the 5 prospects that are ML ready and not on the 40 offer great hopes.

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

No miracle is happening, this year, but it is interesting that we got to 5 games left  and are not eliminated, mathematically.

I guess it's interesting that the 3 wild card system has made this possible for .500 teams?

I guess it's interesting that the AL was generally inferior to the NL this year?

Who knows, maybe a sub .500 team will make the playoffs eventually.

 

 

[moonslav59]

47 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I guess it's interesting that the 3 wild card system has made this possible for .500 teams?

I guess it's interesting that the AL was generally inferior to the NL this year?

Who knows, maybe a sub .500 team will make the playoffs eventually.

 

 

I think the CWS really brings the AL down.

I'm not sure having the weakest teams in specifically the 6th slot is all that meaningful.

Anyway, this year, there can be no sub .500 team in the playoffs. 82-80 is the lowest possible record for the WC3 team in the AL. (87-75 in the NL.)

The NL does have 6 of the top 8 records in MLB, so I'm not disagreeing they look better. To cherry- pick on the bottom end, the NL has 6 of the worst 11 teams.

The AL has 8 of the middle 11 teams. (if top tier=8 teams/ bottom tier = 11 teams)

AL has 10 of the top (and mediocre) 19 teams. All 19 teams are at .500 or better.

It is interesting that we speak of parity, and 6 teams are below a .442 win %, and 10 teams are under .484.

If SFG wins 3 of 5, we'll have 20 teams at .500 or better and just 10 below .500.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think the CWS really brings the AL down.

I think it's just the opposite.  The CWS bulked up KC, Detroit and Minnesota.  Otherwise the AL wild card hunt would feature teams with even crappier records.

In the NL Atlanta is 14 games over .500 but out of a wild card spot.     

[notin]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

I think it's just the opposite.  The CWS bulked up KC, Detroit and Minnesota.  Otherwise the AL wild card hunt would feature teams with even crappier records.

In the NL Atlanta is 14 games over .500 but out of a wild card spot.     

KC, Minn and Detroit are a combined 33-3 against the White Sox.  Detroit has 3 games left with them.

The White Sox are a huge factor in the WC this season…

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Bregman is a dead pull hitter whose numbers get inflated with the short porch in HOU. At Fenway, a lot of those HR's turn into doubles and singles. I don't know how well his game will translate to BOS. In theory, he could be a good fit (RHB, decent defender I believe, good contact skills). 

Someone in Boston thought it would work when the Sox drafted him out of high school…

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

KC, Minn and Detroit are a combined 33-3 against the White Sox.  Detroit has 3 games left with them.

The White Sox are a huge factor in the WC this season…

Good point, but the next two worse teams were in the NL.

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Good point, but the next two worse teams were in the NL.

Bottom line: much easier to make the playoffs in the AL this year than the NL.

But still not easy enough for the Red Sox.

Anyone who thinks it's a positive development that we're not eliminated yet has been nicely indoctrinated by John Henry.

(I realize I'm laying it on a little thick with that last part. 😉 ) 

 

[notin]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Good point, but the next two worse teams were in the NL.

Both of those teams are 20 games better than the White Sox and neither one is 8-41 against the teams in their own division…

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

KC, Minn and Detroit are a combined 33-3 against the White Sox.  Detroit has 3 games left with them.

The White Sox are a huge factor in the WC this season…

And the hapless Red Sox were 4-3 against the White Sox.

In 7 games we lost as many as those 3 teams did in 36 games!

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Bottom line: much easier to make the playoffs in the AL this year than the NL.

But still not easy enough for the Red Sox.

Anyone who thinks it's a positive development that we're not eliminated yet has been nicely indoctrinated by John Henry.

(I realize I'm laying it on a little thick with last part. 😉 ) 

 

I'm not sure how positive, if any, it is, but I'd like to finish above TBR and not finishing last is better than finishing last.

This has nothing to do with JH. I know it has been a sham, but that does not mean I have to lie to myself and say we don't look better, now, than we did from 2022-2023. We are better, and our extended future looks way brighter than even the last 2 years of the DD era.

This isn't being a JH apologist by saying the truth.

[harmony]

What parallels can be drawn between Roman Anthony and Jackson Holliday, whom Anthony recently replaced as the top prospect at Baseball America?

https://nesn.com/2024/09/how-red-sox-could-benefit-from-roman-anthony-jackson-holliday-connection/

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And the hapless Red Sox were 4-3 against the White Sox.

In 7 games we lost as many as those 3 teams did in 36 games!

We were also 4-2 v KCR, 4-3 vs SEA and 2-1 vs PHI & Cubs.

It wasn't a good year. 

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure how positive, if any, it is, but I'd like to finish above TBR and not finishing last is better than finishing last.

This has nothing to do with JH. I know it has been a sham, but that does not mean I have to lie to myself and say we don't look better, now, than we did from 2022-2023. We are better, and our extended future looks way brighter than even the last 2 years of the DD era.

This isn't being a JH apologist by saying the truth.

We're marginally better this year.  But saying that you're better than two 78-84 teams isn't saying much.

The Fab 4 is exciting, I'm not trying to downplay that.

But our pitching outlook remains highly suspect.  Houck and Crawford are probably excellent candidates for regression simply because of their increased workloads this year.  Our bullpen is losing its two most reliable performers.  

We always tend toward optimism when looking ahead and we tend to ignore all the bad things that could happen.  But happen they do and will. 

   

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And the hapless Red Sox were 4-3 against the White Sox.

In 7 games we lost as many as those 3 teams did in 36 games!

And this is why the Red Sox have no excuse about missing the Tame Card. 

If only they were good enough to sweep the worst team in history -- with three less losses they'd be knocking on the door of the postseason.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We're marginally better this year.  But saying that you're better than two 78-84 teams isn't saying much.

The Fab 4 is exciting, I'm not trying to downplay that.

But our pitching outlook remains highly suspect.  Houck and Crawford are probably excellent candidates for regression simply because of their increased workloads this year.  Our bullpen is losing its two most reliable performers.  

We always tend toward optimism when looking ahead and we tend to ignore all the bad things that could happen.  But happen they do and will. 

   

I agree about just being marginally better. The fact that the Rays and Jays got worse does not make us better. 

I know a lot can go wrong, going forward and some will. I have been suggesting 2-3 major pitching additions need to be made, so I do not think that is a sign of ignoring the reality that this team is deeply flawed. It is. No sugar coating.

Thinking the D will improve, based on the return of Story is fraught with risk and a high probability of a major letdown, although Mayer & Campbell offer more depth.