A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Someone in Boston thought it would work when the Sox drafted him out of high school…

I'm sure he's the exact same player he was in high school. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We're marginally better this year.  But saying that you're better than two 78-84 teams isn't saying much.

The Fab 4 is exciting, I'm not trying to downplay that.

But our pitching outlook remains highly suspect.  Houck and Crawford are probably excellent candidates for regression simply because of their increased workloads this year.  Our bullpen is losing its two most reliable performers.  

We always tend toward optimism when looking ahead and we tend to ignore all the bad things that could happen.  But happen they do and will. 

   

This is one of the best teams we've had since 2018! It's not last damn place! It doesn't even have Mookie! I've already picked out my spot for the parade Sunday night. 

[notin]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm sure he's the exact same player he was in high school. 

He cheated them too?

[Maxbialystock]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

This is one of the best teams we've had since 2018! It's not last damn place! It doesn't even have Mookie! I've already picked out my spot for the parade Sunday night. 

I love it!  You have just confirmed that absolutely no one except me remembers the 2021 season. 

One more time:  the Sox, also without Mookie (as well as Sale and Price),  won 92 games and a ticket to the wild card game, in which they beat the Yankees 6-1 and then beat the 100 win Rays 3 games to 1 in the ALDS before losing to the Astros, 2 games to 4, in the ALCS.    The 2021 Sox had no closer in the postseason.  

Interestingly, the Sox 2021 ace was Nate Eovaldi with 32 starts, 13 quality starts, 182.1 IP, and an ERA of 3.75.  This year the Sox ace is vastly underpaid Tanner Houck with 30 starts, 19 quality starts, 178.2 IP, and an ERA of 3.12.    In 2021 Nate Eovaldi was paid $17M and this year Houck is being paid $750K.  

[Maxbialystock]

 The 2024 Sox have been surprisingly good in view of the preseason sabotage by the CBO Craig Breslow who dumped Sale and replaced him with Giolito (who was paid $19M to do nothing)--on top of which he sent $17M to the Braves to pay Sale's 2024 salary!!!!  On the other hand, he also insisted on a new pitching coach, Bailey, who has definitely helped.   

The Sox best hitters and pitchers this year were pretty much the result of Chaim Bloom's stewardship.  

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

17 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

 The 2024 Sox have been surprisingly good in view of the preseason sabotage by the CBO Craig Breslow who dumped Sale and replaced him with Giolito (who was paid $19M to do nothing)--on top of which he sent $17M to the Braves to pay Sale's 2024 salary!!!!  On the other hand, he also insisted on a new pitching coach, Bailey, who has definitely helped.   

The Sox best hitters and pitchers this year were pretty much the result of Chaim Bloom's stewardship.  

 

 

"Stewardship" - nice word 😊, but Houck, Crawford, Bello, Duran, Casas and Rafaela were all inherited by Bloom from Dombrowski's tenure.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Maxbialystock said:

I love it!  You have just confirmed that absolutely no one except me remembers the 2021 season. 

One more time:  the Sox, also without Mookie (as well as Sale and Price),  won 92 games and a ticket to the wild card game, in which they beat the Yankees 6-1 and then beat the 100 win Rays 3 games to 1 in the ALDS before losing to the Astros, 2 games to 4, in the ALCS.    The 2021 Sox had no closer in the postseason.  

Interestingly, the Sox 2021 ace was Nate Eovaldi with 32 starts, 13 quality starts, 182.1 IP, and an ERA of 3.75.  This year the Sox ace is vastly underpaid Tanner Houck with 30 starts, 19 quality starts, 178.2 IP, and an ERA of 3.12.    In 2021 Nate Eovaldi was paid $17M and this year Houck is being paid $750K.  

You didn't notice the wording "one of the best teams since 2018" not "the best team since 2018." C'mon man!

[moonslav59]

Highest winning % by Sox teams since 2018:

.568 2021 (92 wins)

.539 2019 (84 wins)

.503 2024 (on pace for 81-82 wins)

.481 2022 & 2023

.400 2020 (short season)

Note: we were at .438 in 2014 and .481 in 2015.

[dgalehouse]

4 hours ago, notin said:

KC, Minn and Detroit are a combined 33-3 against the White Sox.  Detroit has 3 games left with them.

The White Sox are a huge factor in the WC this season…

The A.L. Central wild card contenders benefit from playing  the White Sox in another way as well. In case of a tie, the second tiebreaker is record within your own division. Thus, if the Red Sox and Twins finished with the same record, the Twins would get the wild card because the head to head record was 3-3 and the Twins had a better intradivision record. 

[dgalehouse]

The tragic number remains at three and holding. The Sox cannot be eliminated tonight. 

[mvp 78]

 

[moonslav59]

While Houck has experiences some "arm fatigue," and both he and Crawford had a tough stretch for a few weeks this summer, I think it is important to point out a few numbers:

MLB Leaders in...

IP: 15th Crawford (179.1) and 16th Houck (178.2)/ 54th Bello (158.1) & 79th Pivetta (139)

90 Pitchers with 130+ IP

fWAR: 13th Houck (3.9) 61st Crawford & Bello (1.9) 66th Pivetta 1.8

ERA: 16th Houck (3.12) 66. Crawford (4.17) 69. Pivetta (4.21) 78. Bello (4.49)

SIERA: 10. Pivetta 3.31, 30. Houck 3.74, 552. Crawford 4.09, 6. Bello 4.14, 

TEAM: 16th ERA at 4.05, but 10th in ERA- at 95 and xFIP and xFIP-

8th in K/BB at 2.98

T11th with NYY at 15.0 fWAR.

10th in xFIP (4.01) ahead of BAL (4.02) & NYY (4.11)

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

oopsO

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

 

So, even more of a miracle: BOS 4-1, KCR & MIN 1-5 and SEA 2-3.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

 

Sox would have to duplicate the 1978 finish!

[dgalehouse]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

 

Not out of the realm of possibility by any means. 

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

Not out of the realm of possibility by any means. 

There’s a simulation where it happens, but not in this reality.

[Nick]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

While Houck has experiences some "arm fatigue," and both he and Crawford had a tough stretch for a few weeks this summer, I think it is important to point out a few numbers:

MLB Leaders in...

IP: 15th Crawford (179.1) and 16th Houck (178.2)/ 54th Bello (158.1) & 79th Pivetta (139)

90 Pitchers with 130+ IP

fWAR: 13th Houck (3.9) 61st Crawford & Bello (1.9) 66th Pivetta 1.8

ERA: 16th Houck (3.12) 66. Crawford (4.17) 69. Pivetta (4.21) 78. Bello (4.49)

SIERA: 10. Pivetta 3.31, 30. Houck 3.74, 552. Crawford 4.09, 6. Bello 4.14, 

TEAM: 16th ERA at 4.05, but 10th in ERA- at 95 and xFIP and xFIP-

8th in K/BB at 2.98

T11th with NYY at 15.0 fWAR.

10th in xFIP (4.01) ahead of BAL (4.02) & NYY (4.11)

IP and fwar tie w Yankees stand out to me.

 

Obviously our bullpen imploded. Any #"s there Moon?

[Randy Red Sox]

11 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I guess it's interesting that the 3 wild card system has made this possible for .500 teams?

I guess it's interesting that the AL was generally inferior to the NL this year?

Who knows, maybe a sub .500 team will make the playoffs eventually.

 

 

then the Sox might have a chance

[Randy Red Sox]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

No matter what we do, you'll find something.

yeah because a .500 record still has us in the hunt.  you know what?  a .500 record next year too will have us in the hunt till the end too

[moonslav59]

KCR won on a 10th inning error by the SS. Det won 2-1.

Close calls in both games, but that fat lady keeps singing, loudly.

[moonslav59]

Perhaps the biggest ball-buster about 2024, besides the Sale trade and zero IP from Gio was this...

62 Games Started by our top 2 SP'ers (Houck and Crawford) and this record:

26-36

[sk7326]

I know this is corny - but I really do appreciate Trevor Story actually coming back this season.  That he wanted to, and that he put the effort in to do so is some actual no-BS leadership.

[sk7326]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Perhaps the biggest ball-buster about 2024, besides the Sale trade and zero IP from Gio was this...

62 Games Started by our top 2 SP'ers (Houck and Crawford) and this record:

26-36

Indeed - particularly with Houck actually pitching well.  Crawford's near total inability to prevent homeruns ended up derailing him of course. 

[Maxbialystock]

48 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Perhaps the biggest ball-buster about 2024, besides the Sale trade and zero IP from Gio was this...

62 Games Started by our top 2 SP'ers (Houck and Crawford) and this record:

26-36

Well said.  I'm sick and tired of reading about Sale/Giolito.  

We are 30 minutes from September 25, when the Sox will still be in the hunt for the postseason.  They should have been eliminated by now, but won 4 straight, including tonight's extra inning game.  Bello went 4 IP and the 7 Sox relievers did the other 6 IP.   Error by Abreu should have been called on Rafaela--but it did not lead to a Jays run.  Rafaela with the big 2 rbi hit in the 7th.  

I continue to believe that hitting and pitching are the keys to winning, but have to admit I think Story at SS has made a difference this month.   On the season the Sox are now 14-9 in games in which Story has played.  

[notin]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Perhaps the biggest ball-buster about 2024, besides the Sale trade and zero IP from Gio was this...

62 Games Started by our top 2 SP'ers (Houck and Crawford) and this record:

26-36

They were 16-14 in Houck starts, and it was the Crawford starts (10-22) that carry the bulk of the bad record.

Still, Houck and Crawford (6.3) appear ready to finish the season with more combined bWAR than Burnes and Fried (6.2)…

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, sk7326 said:

I know this is corny - but I really do appreciate Trevor Story actually coming back this season.  That he wanted to, and that he put the effort in to do so is some actual no-BS leadership.

100%

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

Well said.  I'm sick and tired of reading about Sale/Giolito.  

We are 30 minutes from September 25, when the Sox will still be in the hunt for the postseason.  They should have been eliminated by now, but won 4 straight, including tonight's extra inning game.  Bello went 4 IP and the 7 Sox relievers did the other 6 IP.   Error by Abreu should have been called on Rafaela--but it did not lead to a Jays run.  Rafaela with the big 2 rbi hit in the 7th.  

I continue to believe that hitting and pitching are the keys to winning, but have to admit I think Story at SS has made a difference this month.   On the season the Sox are now 14-9 in games in which Story has played.  

Story loves Rafaela to CF and Duran to LF, which improves 3 positions. He also keeps DHam and others at 2B not SS- another plus.

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

They were 16-14 in Houck starts, and it was the Crawford starts (10-22) that carry the bulk of the bad record.

Still, Houck and Crawford (6.3) appear ready to finish the season with more combined bWAR than Burnes and Fried (6.2)…

I included Houck, because we should have had a much better record with both of these guys.

We won way more with Bello & Criswell.

[mvp 78]

46 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I included Houck, because we should have had a much better record with both of these guys.

We won way more with Bello & Criswell.

That's only because baseball is LOL random. That's one of the tenents of TalkSox.