A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

The Angels couldn’t even get him to agree to move to a corner OF slot to not only help him stay on the field but also accommodate Brandon Marsh.  Maybe now that he’s missed a lot of time, he’d agree to LF/RF.  But DH seems like a stretch…

Then, a big fat NO, even if they pay half his contract.

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, notin said:

I think if the Sox don’t want to move any of those 3 or Campbell, they may have to set their sites lower than pre-arb pitchers like Bryce Miller.

Garret Crochet seems more likely.  Reportedly the White Sox plan on cutting salary again. As they only have two players under contract (Benintendi at 3 years $49mill and Robert with 1 year $17mill), this presumably means the arbitration-eligible players are available.  The bulk of their arb-eligible deals are for some fairly fungible players like Nicky Lopez, Andrew Vaughn and Gavin Sheets.  The one player with any real value is Crochet, who has 2 arb years left and has expressed interest in an extension.   He absolutely fits the Sox primary need, but will obviously be expensive. Hopefully a package headlined by Braden Montgomery and Franklin Arias is enough, and it does help that both were BA Top 100 prospects in the most recent rankings.   Neither is particularly close to MLB, but given the prospects the White Sox acquired in July, that didn’t seem to be a priority…

No way do the ChiSox move Crochet for low level prospects like Arias and Montgomery. 

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

No way do the ChiSox move Crochet for low level prospects like Arias and Montgomery. 

It's doubtful, but I'm not sure I'd say "No way." Maybe we could add Abreu and DHam.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

It's doubtful, but I'm not sure I'd say "No way." Maybe we could add Abreu and DHam.

I don't think Hamilton moves that needle very much. That's just a 40 man dump. 

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think Hamilton moves that needle very much. That's just a 40 man dump. 

He'd be the 12th best player on their 26.

[moonslav59]

Mayer, Abreu and Priester

for

Crochet and Banks

[notin]

45 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

No way do the ChiSox move Crochet for low level prospects like Arias and Montgomery. 

They might get better offers with more or higher ranked prospects.  But most of the talent they acquired at the deadline they was in A ball or below.  I don’t think level matters to them right now…

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

They might get better offers with more or higher ranked prospects.  But most of the talent they acquired at the deadline they was in A ball or below.  I don’t think level matters to them right now…

Crochet is really the only big fish they have left to move. The problem with dealing low level guys is that so many things can go wrong between A ball and MLB. 

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Crochet is really the only big fish they have left to move. The problem with dealing low level guys is that so many things can go wrong between A ball and MLB. 

Throw in Cespedes... LOL!

[notin]

31 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Crochet is really the only big fish they have left to move. The problem with dealing low level guys is that so many things can go wrong between A ball and MLB. 

Well, they still have Luis Robert.

I know the issues with taking low level players, but it’s what they were doing at the trade deadline..

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Well, they still have Luis Robert.

I know the issues with taking low level players, but it’s what they were doing at the trade deadline..

I think a lot of the shine is off of Robert ATM. If they trade him now it’d be selling low.

[Randy Red Sox]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

They might be one team interested in "far away" prospects," but I think they can and will rightfully demand a top 4 prospect from us.

I think I'd rather have 5 years of Bryce Miller than 2 of Crochet, but if he would agree to a reasonable extension, I'd think more about him. He's only 25, so giving him a long extension might work out well. 

Anything we do involves a big risk.

Parting with a big 4 prospect is very risky.

Campbell is the only RHB of the 4 and is very athletic. He has not proven he is a plus defender at any position, but he should be able to at 2B, CF or RF- maybe 3B. To me, he is second to...

Anthony is the cream of the cream. He seems like the no-brainer "keeper," but he is also the one guy nobody else can top with a better headliner. You get what you pay for, and he should get the best of the best.

Mayer plays a position we have had issues with since Bogey bolted, and we haven't had a plus defender at SS since pre-Bogey, unless you count the ever-absent Story. To me, he may be the best choice to trade, despite our higher need for middle infield than CF/RF (Anthony.)

Teel looks to be a plus defensive catcher who may also be a good hitter. Those are too hard to find to part with very easily. With Wong's defense seemingly not improving, he may be deemed a "keeper."

Keeping all 4 does allow us to trade Abreu and DHam, but what do they bring us back? A package of Arias, Montgomery, Abreu and DHam might be good enough. Who knows?

Abreu is hitting .262 and his avg is going down.  he is a hard nosed Trot Nixon type who i do like but i am not sure how valuable a trade chip he is.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Abreu is hitting .262 and his avg is going down.  he is a hard nosed Trot Nixon type who i do like but i am not sure how valuable a trade chip he is.

Plus D. Very good hitter. 5 years of control.

Why undervalue him?

[moonslav59]

10 games to go:

1 @ TBR, 3 vs MIN, 3 @ TOR, 3 v TBR

We are +2 on TBR and +3.5 on TOR.

We are -4 on MIN (see next series)

We are -3 on the surging Tigers (led by AJ Hinch)

We are -1.5 on SEA (playing tonight)

It's still not impossible to make the playoffs or finish in last place in the ALE.

What a weird season.

[Bellhorn04]

18 hours ago, notin said:

The plan when Bloom was hired was to build a sustainable farm that could keep the team competitive without the heavy reliance on free agent spending.  I’m afraid that your definition of “get serious again” is something we may never see again…

To me this just sounds like you rooting for Henry's wallet again. 😎

[mvp 78]

18 hours ago, notin said:

Mike Trout has 6 years left on a deal that pays him $37.2mill annually and has only played in 266 games in the past 4 seasons.

The Angels would be insane not to trade him for Yoshida.  Trout’s a part time player paid more than half of the entire Oakland A’s payroll..,

I wouldn't do that deal. 

[Bellhorn04]

Well, we actually have a positive development - Trevor Story is hitting some baseballs hard.  We really need this guy to be healthy and productive next year.  If he is he fills 2 huge needs at once, solid infield defense and a right handed power bat. 

[Bellhorn04]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

10 games to go:

1 @ TBR, 3 vs MIN, 3 @ TOR, 3 v TBR

We are +2 on TBR and +3.5 on TOR.

We are -4 on MIN (see next series)

We are -3 on the surging Tigers (led by AJ Hinch)

We are -1.5 on SEA (playing tonight)

It's still not impossible to make the playoffs or finish in last place in the ALE.

What a weird season.

I'd say the third Wild Card is turning out to be an abomination against mankind.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Well, we actually have a positive development - Trevor Story is hitting some baseballs hard.  We really need this guy to be healthy and productive next year.  If he is he fills 2 huge needs at once, solid infield defense and a right handed power bat. 

TWO tools?!?

Wait -- and he can run the bases -- without getting picked off every night? 

Are you sure the Red Sox can afford a THREE-TOOL player?

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

TWO tools?!?

Wait -- and he can run the bases -- without getting picked off every night? 

Are you sure the Red Sox can afford a THREE-TOOL player?

You're right, he's also got some actual baseball smarts and veteran presence.

They sure as hell better not trade him.  

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'd say the third Wild Card is turning out to be an abomination against mankind.

It has kept more cities and teams paying attention, with just 10 games to go, but yes, if a last WC team wins the ring, there might be an outroar to ax the idea.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

To me this just sounds like you rooting for Henry's wallet again. 😎

Not rooting.  Just observing the trend…

[notin]

16 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I think a lot of the shine is off of Robert ATM. If they trade him now it’d be selling low.

He has only one year left plus an option.  If they’re going to move him, time is not on their side, shine or not…

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'd say the third Wild Card is turning out to be an abomination against mankind.

It keeps more teams (and therefore more fans) interested.  How is that bad?

 

Do you prefer the old system where teams that fell lout of it called up 8-15 minor leaguers and had them starting and playing in games that decided the postseason for other teams?

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

It has kept more cities and teams paying attention, with just 10 games to go, but yes, if a last WC team wins the ring, there might be an outroar to ax the idea.

Why?

 

In 2006, the Cardinals won a very weak NL Central with a record of 83-78 and went on to win the World Series while 5 teams with better records (including Boston) missed the postseason altogether. This exposed a major weakness in have divisional play and the accompanying playoff format.  And yet no uproar…

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Why?

 

In 2006, the Cardinals won a very weak NL Central with a record of 83-78 and went on to win the World Series while 5 teams with better records (including Boston) missed the postseason altogether. This exposed a major weakness in have divisional play and the accompanying playoff format.  And yet no uproar…

Okay, but there should be.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

10 games to go:

1 @ TBR, 3 vs MIN, 3 @ TOR, 3 v TBR

We are +2 on TBR and +3.5 on TOR.

We are -4 on MIN (see next series)

We are -3 on the surging Tigers (led by AJ Hinch)

We are -1.5 on SEA (playing tonight)

It's still not impossible to make the playoffs or finish in last place in the ALE.

What a weird season.

Pretty tough to leapfrog 3 teams.

[Bellhorn04]

47 minutes ago, notin said:

It keeps more teams (and therefore more fans) interested.  How is that bad?

 

Do you prefer the old system where teams that fell lout of it called up 8-15 minor leaguers and had them starting and playing in games that decided the postseason for other teams?

So why not increase it to 16 teams, if it's the more the merrier?  What's the cutoff point?

I realize other sports let more than 12 teams in, but baseball is arguably a much different game, with a much higher crapshoot factor in each series.  

[Bellhorn04]

38 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Pretty tough to leapfrog 3 teams.

Our frog would need a jet pack up his butt to do that much leaping.

[notin]

36 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So why not increase it to 16 teams, if it's the more the merrier?  What's the cutoff point?

I realize other sports let more than 12 teams in, but baseball is arguably a much different game, with a much higher crapshoot factor in each series.  

Up until 1969, it was two teams.  Was that really better?  One thing that ruins any sport is when the playoff invites are decided by one team playing an opponent that is clearly tanking or just playing out the string.

Does MLB really have a higher crapshoot factor than the NFL and their single game elimination format?  

Fans do love postseasons.  And large ones are more popular.  You needn’t look beyond college basketball to see that.  Was that tournament as exciting when only 16 teams went?

Arguably the crapshoot factor adds interest.  Look at the NBA, which allows 50% of the league into the postseason, drags the playoffs out for 3 months, and then gets to a series fielding two teams seated two or higher in each conference.  So unnecessary.  But also very popular, despite the predetermined outcome.

My only issue with MLB increasing the postseason is the games already go into November, and not every city will have playable weather beyond that point…