A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[Bellhorn04]

23 minutes ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

I think we all knew it was a massive overpay. Still I was expecting a better player.  

Well, you probably assumed Bloom had a clue what he was doing.

I tried to do the same.  Then the facts sunk in:

-Yoshida was a $110 million DH without a lot of power.

-Bloom had spent a lot of money on 2 DH's, the other being Turner.   

-Bloom had only allocated $10 million to the rotation, and donated it to the retirement fund of Corey Kluber. 

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Well, you probably assumed Bloom had a clue what he was doing.

I tried to do the same.  Then the facts sunk in:

-Yoshida was a $110 million DH without a lot of power.

-Bloom had spent a lot of money on 2 DH's, the other being Turner.   

-Bloom had only allocated $10 million to the rotation, and donated it to the retirement fund of Corey Kluber. 

he's St. Louis's problem now. glad i'm not a Cardinals fan. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

I tuned in last April just to see the young players, we all knew this was a lost season. I watched in amazement as a team with terrible starting pitching and a lineup full of .220 hitters hovered around .500. I credit Cora for much of that.

Then the team started hitting, their centerfielder was the MVP of the All Star game and a player baseball people were talking about. All summer they were playing meaningful games and firmly in the playoff chase.  I never expected that. Still extremely pissed at John Henry for what he did to us but for this season I got more than I expected so no real complaints.   

The end of the season sucked- no doubt. There were a few fun things to watch, over the last 2.5 months, but in terms of winning, we sucked.

We were basically a .500 team up to May 30th (28-29.)

Then, all cylinders started firing, at the same time, and we went 33-22 from May 31 to July 5th and 38-25 to the ASB (July 14th.)

The wheels came off, all at once, too. We've gone 27-38 since the ASB. Just horrible (again.)

Many of us went into this season looking at it like it was a year to evaluate our younger talent, to see who we could count on going forward, and who we might want to move on from. I think we found out a few good things, a couple bad things, and left a few questions unanswered.

We found out Duran is the Man. Wong sucks on D, and we are not sure about Story.

We found out Abreu & Ref make a great platoon, our back-up catcher sucked and Rafaela needs work on O.

We found out our middle infield now has decent depth, but no plus-plus guy and Mayer is a giant Q.

We found out our farm is loaded with ML or near ML ready prospects, but Perales got hurt, again. Our pitching prospects remain a big question at best and scary at worst.

We found out Houck can go 6 IP and pitch a full season at a solid #2 level. We found out Gio was no help. We found out Crawford is still a question mark, but at least can start 33 games.

We found out Slaten looks pretty damn good, but several pen arms sucked. We still have about 10 question mark pen arms that all look like they should be in AAA to start the 2025 season- yes about 8-10 of them.

We go into 2025 with few questions, but more impactful ones:

Who is our ace, and if it's Houck, who can be a solid #2?

Who is our closer and top 2 set-up men? (Who will be the 4-8 pen arms?)

Do we stick with Rafaela? (Do we trade Abreu?)

What top prospects might break camp with the big team on opening day? (By May? By July?)

Who is our 5th starter?

How long to we accept horrific defense at corner infield?

Do we keep paying $18M to our DH to be an average hitter?

Most of all, will JH spend more, the same or force yet another cut?

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Now run those OPSs for September.

I'll do even better: July 17 to today (in order of most PAs)

.853 Duran

.727 Devers

.823 Yoshida

.620 Rafaela

.694 Wong

.756 Abreu

.861 O'Neill

.781 Casas

.727 Romy

.810 Refsnyder

.613 DHam

.629 Jansen

.658 Sogard

.790 Story

.729 Grissom

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Not good, not good at all for a $20 million DH.

For a $20 million DH you should get Kyle Schwarber. 

Schwarber .852 OPS 137 OPS+ 38 HR 102 RBI

Yoshida  .765 OPS 112 OPS+ 10 HR 56 RBI

Great job, Bloom.  😒

 

 

We had a $22M DH, when Schwarber was a FA. I think finding another comp would make more sense. One that was signed after 2022.

Also, Bloom & Co. wrongly assumed Yoshida was a LF'er not a DH, hence the Turner signing. (We ended up needing Turner at 1B.)

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

A guy who routinely goes into slumps that last for months can't be counted on.  Such a disappointment.  

Yoshida was one of the few Sox batters who did well after the ASB, and even had some huge hits.

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We had a $22M DH, when Schwarber was a FA. I think finding another comp would make more sense. One that was signed after 2022.

I would but there just aren't that many of them.  If we signed Schwarber we would have had to trade JDM at a loss, understood.  But he only had one year left.

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yoshida was one of the few Sox batters who did well after the ASB, and even had some huge hits.

But he has been horrible in September, like most everyone else.

[Old Red]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'll do even better: July 17 to today (in order of most PAs)

.853 Duran

.727 Devers

.823 Yoshida

.620 Rafaela

.694 Wong

.756 Abreu

.861 O'Neill

.781 Casas

.727 Romy

.810 Refsnyder

.613 DHam

.629 Jansen

.658 Sogard

.790 Story

.729 Grissom

What did this all add up to in the WL column?

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, Old Red said:

What did this all add up to in the WL column?

I think there's a new field in baseball metrics - Pollyannalytics.  

With Pollyannalytics, you can make anything look like a positive.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

The end of the season sucked- no doubt. There were a few fun things to watch, over the last 2.5 months, but in terms of winning, we sucked.

We were basically a .500 team up to May 30th (28-29.)

Then, all cylinders started firing, at the same time, and we went 33-22 from May 31 to July 5th and 38-25 to the ASB (July 14th.)

The wheels came off, all at once, too. We've gone 27-38 since the ASB. Just horrible (again.)

Many of us went into this season looking at it like it was a year to evaluate our younger talent, to see who we could count on going forward, and who we might want to move on from. I think we found out a few good things, a couple bad things, and left a few questions unanswered.

We found out Duran is the Man. Wong sucks on D, and we are not sure about Story.

We found out Abreu & Ref make a great platoon, our back-up catcher sucked and Rafaela needs work on O.

We found out our middle infield now has decent depth, but no plus-plus guy and Mayer is a giant Q.

We found out our farm is loaded with ML or near ML ready prospects, but Perales got hurt, again. Our pitching prospects remain a big question at best and scary at worst.

We found out Houck can go 6 IP and pitch a full season at a solid #2 level. We found out Gio was no help. We found out Crawford is still a question mark, but at least can start 33 games.

We found out Slaten looks pretty damn good, but several pen arms sucked. We still have about 10 question mark pen arms that all look like they should be in AAA to start the 2025 season- yes about 8-10 of them.

We go into 2025 with few questions, but more impactful ones:

Who is our ace, and if it's Houck, who can be a solid #2?

Who is our closer and top 2 set-up men? (Who will be the 4-8 pen arms?)

Do we stick with Rafaela? (Do we trade Abreu?)

What top prospects might break camp with the big team on opening day? (By May? By July?)

Who is our 5th starter?

How long to we accept horrific defense at corner infield?

Do we keep paying $18M to our DH to be an average hitter?

Most of all, will JH spend more, the same or force yet another cut?

 

Pretty good breakdown, one most of us agree with I would think.  Not sure if there is room with the farm help on the way but I'd roll with Rafaela in CF next season.  I believe he will learn to be more selective and not swing at sliders a foot out of the zone at some point.  Hell if he never improves his offense and is a good centerfielder that's still pretty good production from the 9 spot.  And he does have upside.    

It's hard for me to believe in Trevor Story at this point.  This was not a bad year, it was 2 horrible seasons when he did play.  I'm also not sold on Houck as a top line starter, maybe a 2 or 3. They need an ace and bullpen help which is  easier and cheaper to acquire. I am fine giving up top prospects in another Pedro/Sale type of trade.

Will Giolito exercise his option for 2025?  I have to think so.  With a true #1, Giolito, Houck, along with the rest that would be a decent starting staff.  I want Whit in the pen and I have no idea what to make of Bello now.  

 

Raffy to 1st is interesting to me. They simply have to improve their defense, it's been bad for too long.  

[Larry Cook]

We are top 5 in 2024 in errors. Are infield leaks more than the titanic ever did 

we are top 5 in strikeouts. A large number of strike outs leave town with O’Neil, and a large number of strike outs are tied to youngsters seeing pitches for the first time. 
 

we struggle to hit left handed pitching 
 

top 3 deficiencies to fix among position players 

1.) cut down on errors. Need new personnel on the infield for this to happen. Defensive dumpster fires across the infield.
2.) get a bit more right handed bats in the lineup, (thank you hang’em Chaim) Campbell and meidroth come to mind. These two guys also fix number 1. Move the left handed excess  to other teams where it makes sense for both teams. Start with yoshida to any west coast team, 

3.) cut down on strikeouts. See Meidroth. 

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

he's St. Louis's problem now. glad i'm not a Cardinals fan. 

I don’t think they’re going to be too upset with him if he does for their farm system what he did for ours…

[notin]

1 minute ago, Larry Cook said:

We are top 5 in 2024 in errors. Are infield leaks more than the titanic ever did 

we are top 5 in strikeouts. A large number of strike outs leave town with O’Neil, and a large number of strike outs are tied to youngsters seeing pitches for the first time. 
 

we struggle to hit left handed pitching 
 

top 3 deficiencies to fix among position players 

1.) cut down on errors. Need new personnel on the infield for this to happen. Defensive dumpster fires across the infield.
2.) get a bit more right handed bats in the lineup, (thank you hang’em Chaim) Campbell and meidroth come to mind. These two guys also fix number 1. Move the left handed excess  to other teams where it makes sense for both teams. Start with yoshida to any west coast team, 

3.) cut down on strikeouts. See Meidroth. 

 

If the Sox are counting on Chase Meidroth to fix their offense, I’m going to become a Cubs’ fan for the few seasons.

 

Even relying on Campbell to help vs RHP is unrealistic.  Especially since he isn’t likely to break camp on the 40 man roster.

 

 

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Yoshida was one of the few Sox batters who did well after the ASB, and even had some huge hits.

This is true but he remained wildly inconsistent and hit .225 in September.  I can't have players who disappear for months at any point in the season.  

[Larry Cook]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

I don’t think they’re going to be too upset with him if he does for their farm system what he did for ours…

Are you saying a farm system that is very heavily left handed hitting and utterly bereft of any pitching is a good thing???

[Larry Cook]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

If the Sox are counting on Chase Meidroth to fix their offense, I’m going to become a Cubs’ fan for the few seasons.

 

Even relying on Campbell to help vs RHP is unrealistic.  Especially since he isn’t likely to break camp on the 40 man roster.

 

 

Meidroth is an on base machine and table setter. The ideal number 2 hitter behind Duran. 
defensively, he is an improvement over devers at 3B. 
I am not saying he is a panacea to our hitting lineup, I am saying he improves our team in 2025 by less errors in the field. Less strikeouts and higher on base percentage. And I think he chips in 15 stolen bases a year. 

[Larry Cook]

7 minutes ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

This is true but he remained wildly inconsistent and hit .225 in September.  I can't have players who disappear for months at any point in the season.  

Yoshida would look excellent in a west coast team uniform next year! Bres-slow will make it happen 

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I would but there just aren't that many of them.  If we signed Schwarber we would have had to trade JDM at a loss, understood.  But he only had one year left.

Some suggested just that, or to play Schwarber in LF or 1B for 1 year.

The Sox scouts obviously saw something in Yoshida that not many (or nobody else) saw.

He did show signs of being a mediocre DH, this year, but at $18M a year, that rings hollow.

[Bellhorn04]

27 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Are you saying a farm system that is very heavily left handed hitting and utterly bereft of any pitching is a good thing???

Larry, you are on fire at the keyboard today. 👍

[notin]

30 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Are you saying a farm system that is very heavily left handed hitting and utterly bereft of any pitching is a good thing???

It’s very heavy on left-handed hitting, but on another post you suggested it was the solution to our RHH problems?  
 

It has numerous valuable prospects.  That’s all that matters, because prospects can be dealt to fill specific needs.  I know you know this.  And we’ve already seen it done…

 

 

[notin]

25 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Yoshida would look excellent in a west coast team uniform next year! Bres-slow will make it happen 

Barring sending lots of money along with him, I think this is unlikely…

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think there's a new field in baseball metrics - Pollyannalytics.  

With Pollyannalytics, you can make anything look like a positive.

nice. 

[Randy Red Sox]

On 9/27/2024 at 5:16 PM, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure it matters much.

Remember how pissed we were when our comp picks dropped, because we stupidly went over the tax line? Well, we got Campbell with one of those "worse" comp picks.

I'd like to finish 3rd not 4th, but in the grand scheme of things, it doesn't matter much.

and how many better players could we have gotten had we not won a few meaningless games at the end of another dreadful season?  One can always pick out an example of a later pick turning out.

[moonslav59]

55 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

and how many better players could we have gotten had we not won a few meaningless games at the end of another dreadful season?  One can always pick out an example of a later pick turning out.

Of course, the odds are better with higher picks, but once you get past the first 5-8 picks, it kind of becomes more of a crapshoot.

[dgalehouse]

Can't get sentimental and start looking for the good in all these players. ( So and so had a .830 OPS from June 28 to Sept. 8, This pitcher had a good WHIP for four weeks in August,  etc.)  The fact is, the team has not been winning with this group. Change is needed. We can't pin all our hopes on three or four minor league prospects. Let's see if Breslow acts boldly after getting his feet wet this year. 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

Can't get sentimental and start looking for the good in all these players. ( So and so had a .830 OPS from June 28 to Sept. 8, This pitcher had a good WHIP for four weeks in August,  etc.)  The fact is, the team has not been winning with this group. Change is needed. We can't pin all our hopes on three or four minor league prospects. Let's see if Breslow acts boldly after getting his feet wet this year. 

Agreed. I think Brez shows more "boldness" in 4 months than Bloom showed in 4 years. Several bold moves did not work out, but at least he tried.

Of course, his winter budget will be a big factor on just how bold he can get, and there may even be directives about not trading away top prospects, so it might be interesting to see how he handles that, or what he does with very few restrictions.

[Duran Is The Man]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Agreed. I think Brez shows more "boldness" in 4 months than Bloom showed in 4 years. Several bold moves did not work out, but at least he tried.

Of course, his winter budget will be a big factor on just how bold he can get, and there may even be directives about not trading away top prospects, so it might be interesting to see how he handles that, or what he does with very few restrictions.

the FO has been nothing but boiled crap since DD left. i really don't expect anything to change.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

the FO has been nothing but boiled crap since DD left. i really don't expect anything to change.

I'm with you on expectations, although I still have some hope.

I also think we are finally at a place where we may be able to significantly improve without major spending. That has not been the case since DD left, and actually since DD's last season, when we refused to pay for Kimbrell and Kelly or spend to replace them with anywhere near the same skill level pitchers.

6 years of restricted spending has take its toll, but the farm has finally reached a point where we can get help, outside of free agency or mega extensions to our stars at FA time.

Not only did we lose Kimbrell & Kelly, but then Betts, ERod & Porcello, Nate & JD, Bogey and Sale, but here are the impact farm players we promoted since Devers in teh summer of 2017...

2018: none

2019: none

2020: none

2021: Houck, Whitlock (not really our farm product) and Dalbec

2022: Duran, Bello, Crawford, Wong & Wink

2023: Casas

2024: Slaten (not really our farm product) Abreu, Rafaela & DHam

Those 3 years from Devers to Houck took its toll.

We are starting to see some results from the farm additions from 2021-2024, and the next infusion promises to be even more impactful in a shorter window.

 

[Duran Is The Man]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm with you on expectations, although I still have some hope.

I also think we are finally at a place where we may be able to significantly improve without major spending. That has not been the case since DD left, and actually since DD's last season, when we refused to pay for Kimbrell and Kelly or spend to replace them with anywhere near the same skill level pitchers.

6 years of restricted spending has take its toll, but the farm has finally reached a point where we can get help, outside of free agency or mega extensions to our stars at FA time.

Not only did we lose Kimbrell & Kelly, but then Betts, ERod & Porcello, Nate & JD, Bogey and Sale, but here are the impact farm players we promoted since Devers in teh summer of 2017...

2018: none

2019: none

2020: none

2021: Houck, Whitlock (not really our farm product) and Dalbec

2022: Duran, Bello, Crawford, Wong & Wink

2023: Casas

2024: Slaten (not really our farm product) Abreu, Rafaela & DHam

Those 3 years from Devers to Houck took its toll.

We are starting to see some results from the farm additions from 2021-2024, and the next infusion promises to be even more impactful in a shorter window.

 

those three years belong to Ben Cherington, not DD. Houck, Dalbec, Duran, Bello, Casas & Rafaela were all acquired under DD. the rest of those you mentioned were acquired by Bloom. interestingly, all of the Bloom acquisitions you mention were via trade or Rule5, while all of the DD acquisitions were drafted.