A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[Bellhorn04]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

Wasn’t part of the reason they needed pitching due to Sale’s inability to repeatedly take the mound?

If Sale pitched like this in 2021, 2022 and 2023, would the Sox still have needed pitching?

Sorry, this mulberry bush is closed.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I think losing sucks, too, so I'm not sure we disagree on that.

Did you really not have fun watching the games, this year, at least some of the time? Half the time?

Some games were really fun, until the pen imploded. Do those games not count as being partially fun to watch?

winning games is fun. but maybe i just have higher expectations. i'm not happy with winning half the games because winning just half means you're not in the playoffs. spin it any way you want but this season was another avoidable disaster thanks to FO mis-managment and incompetence.

[notin]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Sorry, this mulberry bush is closed.

Hey you were the one beating up on Zombie Horses…

[dgalehouse]

Ignoring the advice of Dylan Thomas, the Sox indeed went quietly into the good night. But they did last longer than many thought they would.  Wait till next year.  

[moonslav59]

Despite Whitlock's struggles in 2023, here are the numbers over his first 3 years in MLB (2021-2023)

158 Pitchers with 220+ IP

SIERA: T8 Whitlock 3.27 (w Nola)

xFIP: 16th Whitlock (Just below Franber and above P Lopez/Eflin)

ERA-: T28 Whitlock 80 (w Steele & Peralta)

The guy can pitch. He had 3 straight years over 70 IP.

O GS in 2021 (46 as RP)

9 GS in '22 (23 RP)

10 GS in '23 (12 RP)

He had a 1.96 ERA in his 4 GS in '24 (.616 OPSA). He has a career .693 career OPSA. (.695 v RHB/.689 v LHB) .593 High Leverage/.613 Late & Close

3.39 ERA/1.146 WHIP

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

winning games is fun. but maybe i just have higher expectations. i'm not happy with winning half the games because winning just half means you're not in the playoffs. spin it any way you want but this season was another avoidable disaster thanks to FO mis-managment and incompetence.

I did not have high expectations, this year. My W-L prediction seems very close to being exact.

I'm NOT spinning this season into a success story. It was not.

Saying there were a lot of fun tings to watch is not the same as saying we did well or were a success.

I have been calling the FO a sham since winter.

It was "avoidable." There was a lot of fun things to watch. Two different things.

[mvp 78]

Goodbye to a Red Sox legend. 

[moonslav59]

Three more games to go to the Sox 2024 season. 

3 games vs TBR

We have a 2 game lead, so basically, only getting swept would move us from 3rd place.

It's a tiny consolation to a season that, at one point, was giving us some hopes.

We need to go 2-1 to finish above .500, 1-2 to finish at .500.

It's gonna suck waiting 6 months until the next meaningful baseball game, for me.

[moonslav59]

It's hard to remember this team was once 10 games over .500, after taking 2 of 3 from the NYY and KCR right before the ASB. That was pretty much two-thirds through the season.

What a difference that team looked, compared to the post ASB team.

The way we have ended the last 3 seasons has been super frustrating.

[dgalehouse]

Question: If you totaled the fWAR for each team, would the results match the actual standings of the clubs? Has anyone ever tried to do that?  

[Old Red]

22 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's hard to remember this team was once 10 games over .500, after taking 2 of 3 from the NYY and KCR right before the ASB. That was pretty much two-thirds through the season.

What a difference that team looked, compared to the post ASB team.

The way we have ended the last 3 seasons has been super frustrating.

You were doing your Cyndi Lauper impression then, but as usual with an Alex Cora led ball club for the third year in a row the Fat Lady made her annual Red Sox appearance, and once again the Red Sox are on the outside looking in at an postseason appearance. Who couldn’t see that coming?🤭🙈

[Randy Red Sox]

On 9/25/2024 at 9:39 AM, notin said:

Speaking of Pivetta, in their most recent chat, MLBTR discussed the possibility of a reunion with Boston for 3 years (max).

They’re not working with insider info or anything, but if the Sox do sign a free agent SP, I’d expect Pivetta to be on their short list…

so do I

[Randy Red Sox]

On 9/26/2024 at 2:28 PM, moonslav59 said:

Three more games to go to the Sox 2024 season. 

3 games vs TBR

We have a 2 game lead, so basically, only getting swept would move us from 3rd place.

It's a tiny consolation to a season that, at one point, was giving us some hopes.

We need to go 2-1 to finish above .500, 1-2 to finish at .500.

It's gonna suck waiting 6 months until the next meaningful baseball game, for me.

hammer me all you want but i'd rather finish 80-82 and move up a couple spots in the draft rather then moving down and finishing .500 or even 82-80. I don't see TB putting much of an effort in these games.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

hammer me all you want but i'd rather finish 80-82 and move up a couple spots in the draft rather then moving down and finishing .500 or even 82-80. I don't see TB putting much of an effort in these games.

I'm not sure it matters much.

Remember how pissed we were when our comp picks dropped, because we stupidly went over the tax line? Well, we got Campbell with one of those "worse" comp picks.

I'd like to finish 3rd not 4th, but in the grand scheme of things, it doesn't matter much.

[dgalehouse]

Apparently, Kenley Jansen has departed the scene and headed home. I know he is on the I.L. , but that is not a good look. Looks like he will not be back. 

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

Apparently, Kenley Jansen has departed the scene and headed home. I know he is on the I.L. , but that is not a good look. Looks like he will not be back. 

No, it isn't.

I'm not sure, at his age, if bringing him back would have been a good idea, especially under the assumption that our winter spending budget may be highly restricted, but I see him as a better option than anyone else we have in the system.

[Duran Is The Man]

3 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

Question: If you totaled the fWAR for each team, would the results match the actual standings of the clubs? Has anyone ever tried to do that?  

a team's ranking in fWAR is almost a perfect reflection of their current standing in their respective division. the AL West matches perfectly. the AL East matches except TB and TOR are reversed. i said almost. the AL Central has the WhiteSox last, obviously, and the Royals and Tigers at 2 and 3. However, the Guardians and Twinkies are flipped. The Twins have the highest fWAR in the Central (and 3rd highest in the AL) while CLE comes in at 4. yet, unless a miracle happens, the Twins will miss the playoffs.

in the NL, everything is a perfect match except for ATL and NYM, which are flipped. but they may change after tonite. so...to answer your question: yes, they pretty much match dead on. and if they are any kind of prediction, the Phillies and Yankees will meet in the WS. i would also note that PHI has the highest fWAR in all of MLB. their GM must know what he's doing. too bad we don't have someone like that.

ALEast     NYY 47.9, BAL 43.6, BOS 35.2, TOR 30.5, TBR 28.2

ALCentral   MIN 41.6, KC 40.4, DET 36.0, CLE 35.4, CHI 3.0

ALWest    HOU 39.0, SEA 36.7, TEX 26.6, OAK 24.7, CAL 13.8

NLEast    PHI 49.2, ATL 40.4, NYM 39.5, WAS 25.5, MIA 13.8

NLCentral   MIL 40.0, CHI 36.1, STL 31.0, CIN 26.1, PIT 20.3

NLWest   LAD 46.0, SDP 45.8, ARZ 45.2, SFG 39.8 COL 8.8

 

 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

hammer me all you want but i'd rather finish 80-82 and move up a couple spots in the draft rather then moving down and finishing .500 or even 82-80. I don't see TB putting much of an effort in these games.

You must be really happy, now.

[moonslav59]

The Rays are ranked 20th in MLB at 79-81.

One could easily argue the league is mediocre, this year, but one could also say 20 teams are at just 2 wins from .500 or better. (.494+)

Can saying 20 teams are decent or better be the c ase?

(I'm leaning towards a no. The league is mediocre, instead.)

Only 6 teams are at .465 or lower. Last year, it was 8 with 2 at .469.  in 2022, 12 teams were below .457. (10 in 2021.)

[dgalehouse]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Rays are ranked 20th in MLB at 79-81.

One could easily argue the league is mediocre, this year, but one could also say 20 teams are at just 2 wins from .500 or better. (.494+)

Can saying 20 teams are decent or better be the c ase?

(I'm leaning towards a no. The league is mediocre, instead.)

Only 6 teams are at .465 or lower. Last year, it was 8 with 2 at .469.  in 2022, 12 teams were below .457. (10 in 2021.)

The N.L. had a decided edge in interleague play this year. 

[moonslav59]

I heard Duran is the first MLB player to his 10 triples, 20 HRs, steal 30 bases and hit 40 doubles, but I see Witt has done it, too. Bobby Witt has 45 2Bs, 32 HRs and 31 SBs and 11 3Bs.

Alfonso Soriano was the only MLB player to ever hit 40 HRs, 40 Doubles and steal 40 bases. Jose Ramirez is close, this year: 38 HR, 38 2B and 41 SBs. Ohtani created the 50 HR and 50 SB club and is 1 HR from making it the 55-55 club (54 HRs and 57 SB.) He might also create a 50-60 club with 3 SBs. He has 38 2Bs, so he could reach the 40-40-40 club mentioned with Jose Ramirez. 

How about Soto's season? 127 BB and 118 Ks. (Judge was 133-166.)

Pretty sad that the Sox had nobody with over 83 RBI. Strange that Rafaela is tied for second on the team with 75.

Have the Sox ever had 2 other players, besides Duran & DHam, with 30+ SBs, in the same season?

[Hugh2]

14 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

a team's ranking in fWAR is almost a perfect reflection of their current standing in their respective division. the AL West matches perfectly. the AL East matches except TB and TOR are reversed. i said almost. the AL Central has the WhiteSox last, obviously, and the Royals and Tigers at 2 and 3. However, the Guardians and Twinkies are flipped. The Twins have the highest fWAR in the Central (and 3rd highest in the AL) while CLE comes in at 4. yet, unless a miracle happens, the Twins will miss the playoffs.

in the NL, everything is a perfect match except for ATL and NYM, which are flipped. but they may change after tonite. so...to answer your question: yes, they pretty much match dead on. and if they are any kind of prediction, the Phillies and Yankees will meet in the WS. i would also note that PHI has the highest fWAR in all of MLB. their GM must know what he's doing. too bad we don't have someone like that.

ALEast     NYY 47.9, BAL 43.6, BOS 35.2, TOR 30.5, TBR 28.2

ALCentral   MIN 41.6, KC 40.4, DET 36.0, CLE 35.4, CHI 3.0

ALWest    HOU 39.0, SEA 36.7, TEX 26.6, OAK 24.7, CAL 13.8

NLEast    PHI 49.2, ATL 40.4, NYM 39.5, WAS 25.5, MIA 13.8

NLCentral   MIL 40.0, CHI 36.1, STL 31.0, CIN 26.1, PIT 20.3

NLWest   LAD 46.0, SDP 45.8, ARZ 45.2, SFG 39.8 COL 8.8

 

 

Duran, you are the man.

[moonslav59]

Refsnyder will not retire.

Priester to start the last game of 2024.

A win leaves us right at .500 and in 3rd place. A loss leaves us at 80-82 and in 4th place, behind TBR.

We are currently tied for the 18th best record in MLB (and 11th worst.) TBR & SFG.

Sox OPS, after today... (100+ PAs)

.870 Devers (83 RBI led the team)

.847 O'Neill (31 HRs led the team)

.835 Duran (48 2B, 14 3B, 83 XBH, 34 SB led team)

.830 Refsnyder (.941 v LHP)

.805 Casas (Need 550+ PAs in '25)

.785 Abreu (Was over .800 for most of 2024.)

.764 Yoshida (Not bad.)

.758 Wong (Top 5 OPS in MLB for a Catcher)

.734 Story (Showed some signs of life on O)

.723 Romy (Pretty good for a 4th stringer/ .879 v LHP)

.698 DHam (33 SB in 98 gms)

.660 Rafaela (75 RBI is T 2nd on team)

[moonslav59]

Did anyone expect Rafaela to finish 3rd in PAs on the Sox (568?) He's also 3rd on the team in TBs (210)

How about Abreu banging out 50+ XBHs (3rd) in 443 PAs (6th on team,) while playing plus D in RF.

This was not expected:

317 PAs from DHam (8th), 278 from D Smith (10th), EValdez with 220 and the most at 2B of any Sox player. Romy got 216 PAs and Story ended up with over 100 PAs.

Runs + RBI-HRs

164 Duran

142 Devers

130 Rafaela

104 O'Neill

102 Abreu

[Bellhorn04]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Refsnyder will not retire.

Priester to start the last game of 2024.

A win leaves us right at .500 and in 3rd place. A loss leaves us at 80-82 and in 4th place, behind TBR.

We are currently tied for the 18th best record in MLB (and 11th worst.) TBR & SFG.

Sox OPS, after today... (100+ PAs)

.870 Devers (83 RBI led the team)

.847 O'Neill (31 HRs led the team)

.835 Duran (48 2B, 14 3B, 83 XBH, 34 SB led team)

.830 Refsnyder (.941 v LHP)

.805 Casas (Need 550+ PAs in '25)

.785 Abreu (Was over .800 for most of 2024.)

.764 Yoshida (Not bad.)

.758 Wong (Top 5 OPS in MLB for a Catcher)

.734 Story (Showed some signs of life on O)

.723 Romy (Pretty good for a 4th stringer/ .879 v LHP)

.698 DHam (33 SB in 98 gms)

.660 Rafaela (75 RBI is T 2nd on team)

Now run those OPSs for September.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

On 9/26/2024 at 9:32 AM, Duran Is The Man said:

winning games is fun. but maybe i just have higher expectations. i'm not happy with winning half the games because winning just half means you're not in the playoffs. spin it any way you want but this season was another avoidable disaster thanks to FO mis-managment and incompetence.

I tuned in last April just to see the young players, we all knew this was a lost season. I watched in amazement as a team with terrible starting pitching and a lineup full of .220 hitters hovered around .500. I credit Cora for much of that.

Then the team started hitting, their centerfielder was the MVP of the All Star game and a player baseball people were talking about. All summer they were playing meaningful games and firmly in the playoff chase.  I never expected that. Still extremely pissed at John Henry for what he did to us but for this season I got more than I expected so no real complaints.   

[Bellhorn04]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

.764 Yoshida (Not bad.)

Not good, not good at all for a $20 million DH.

For a $20 million DH you should get Kyle Schwarber. 

Schwarber .852 OPS 137 OPS+ 38 HR 102 RBI

Yoshida  .765 OPS 112 OPS+ 10 HR 56 RBI

Great job, Bloom.  😒

 

 

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Not good, not good at all for a $20 million DH.

For a $20 million DH you should get Kyle Schwarber. 

Schwarber .852 OPS 137 OPS+ 38 HR 102 RBI

Yoshida  .765 OPS 112 OPS+ 10 HR 56 RBI

Great job, Bloom.  😒

 

 

A guy who routinely goes into slumps that last for months can't be counted on.  Such a disappointment.  

[Bellhorn04]

17 minutes ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

A guy who routinely goes into slumps that last for months can't be counted on.  Such a disappointment.  

Virtually every commentator in baseball said at the time it was a massive overpay.

So many blunders by the guys running the team the last few years.  And Breslow made a doozy of his own with the Sale trade.

I'm happy about our farm but I have very little confidence in the guys making the moves.

 

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Virtually every commentator in baseball said at the time it was a massive overpay.

So many blunders by the guys running the team the last few years.  And Breslow made a doozy of his own with the Sale trade.

I'm happy about our farm but I have very little confidence in the guys making the moves.

 

I think we all knew it was a massive overpay. Still I was expecting a better player.