A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[mvp 78]

1. They need a cheap glove first SS not named Rafaela to bridge the gap until Mayer is ready. 

2. Story can go into the 2B mix as they can't rely on him going forward. 

3. They need to acquire legit TOTR SPing via trade and FA (a #1 and another middle rotation guy).

4. They need to replace/re-sign Jansen.

5. Continue to work on extensions for young players that you want to build around (Casas, guys still in MiLB, Duran, whoever).

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

Baseball has changed, in my opinion for the worse. Instead of an exciting pennant race, we now have a bunch of mediocre teams scrambling for the third wild card spot. That is the focus for Sox fans as well as several other team's fans.  It is nothing but an MLB con game to milk more money from the addicted fans.  MLB is run by a group of slick operators who pad their pockets with money from the gullible fans.  

Just wait until there are 32 teams and they increase the amount of playoff teams to 16!

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Just wait until there are 32 teams and they increase the amount of playoff teams to 16!

 

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

1. They need a cheap glove first SS not named Rafaela to bridge the gap until Mayer is ready. 

2. Story can go into the 2B mix as they can't rely on him going forward. 

3. They need to acquire legit TOTR SPing via trade and FA (a #1 and another middle rotation guy).

4. They need to replace/re-sign Jansen.

5. Continue to work on extensions for young players that you want to build around (Casas, guys still in MiLB, Duran, whoever).

Haven’t heard peep about any Casas extension talks lately. Do you think this pretty much lost season for Casas has changed the offering price, or the asking price?

[Duran Is The Man]

4 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, I'm a Cora fan, but it is starting to become troubling that his teams seem to fall apart after the ASB.  I'm not sure how much of that is on him and how much on the bunglers who give the team no help at the trade deadlines.   

pulling Criswell after 4 no-hit innings and 52 pitches was just effin' stupid.

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The issue is that acquiring guys at the deadline is very expensive prospect wise and JH only wants to grow this team through prospects rather than financial leverage. It's easier to make trades in the offseason when the price isn't being driven up by teams pushing for the postseason. We'll see if he's able to do it then or not. Last year, it was or not. 

why not both? is Henry having money problems? his reluctance to spend makes me wonder.

[mvp 78]

29 minutes ago, Old Red said:

 

Haven’t heard peep about any Casas extension talks lately. Do you think this pretty much lost season for Casas has changed the offering price, or the asking price?

I don't think it changes the offering price. Does Casas come down? IDK. 

[moonslav59]

50 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

Baseball has changed, in my opinion for the worse. Instead of an exciting pennant race, we now have a bunch of mediocre teams scrambling for the third wild card spot. That is the focus for Sox fans as well as several other team's fans.  It is nothing but an MLB con game to milk more money from the addicted fans.  MLB is run by a group of slick operators who pad their pockets with money from the gullible fans.  

There are even mediocre teams fighting for divisional crowns.

Nobody looks dominating.

Most of the best record teams, are playing poorly over the last few weeks, too.

[Bellhorn04]

33 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

why not both? is Henry having money problems? his reluctance to spend makes me wonder.

There's a theory that everything changed when RedBird Capital bought a 10% share of Fenway Sports Group a few years ago.  It seems that FSG ran into a cash crunch because of COVID, and they got a big infusion of it from RedBird.  The theory is that RedBird is guaranteed a hefty annual dividend on their investment, and that is one of the things impacting the Red Sox payroll.  It's kind of a conspiracy theory, but it's not totally implausible.  

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

1. They need a cheap glove first SS not named Rafaela to bridge the gap until Mayer is ready. 

2. Story can go into the 2B mix as they can't rely on him going forward. 

3. They need to acquire legit TOTR SPing via trade and FA (a #1 and another middle rotation guy).

4. They need to replace/re-sign Jansen.

5. Continue to work on extensions for young players that you want to build around (Casas, guys still in MiLB, Duran, whoever).

1.  It’s going to be Story, at least until he breaks again.

2. 2b is likely between Hamilton and Grissom.  Hamilton because he’s earned continued chances, and Grissom because they very likely want to give him a proper opportunity.  They didn’t post $17mill on Sale’s salary to run up a white flag on 87 post-injury plate appearances.

3. Agreed.  Although I suspect more likely a trade than a contract.  SI thinks they’re marketing Mayer in just such a trade.  Possible.

4. Hendriks? Isn’t this why they got him in the first place?

5.  Yes. Yes. A thousand times yes!  First up should be Duran and Houck…

[gojohn99]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

pulling Criswell after 4 no-hit innings and 52 pitches was just effin' stupid.

100% agree

[mvp 78]

Hendriks hasn't been a productive reliever since '22 and will be 36 next season. They can't rely on him to be the closer. 

Even hoping Story is the Opening Day SS is foolish IMO. 

[gojohn99]

Story is turning out to be as bad a signing as Pablo Sandoval and Carl Crawford.

In 3 years he has played in 145 games with a .681 OPS.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, gojohn99 said:

Story is turning out to be as bad a signing as Pablo Sandoval and Carl Crawford.

In 3 years he has played in 145 games with a .681 OPS.

The other two sucked on D: Story has been great on D, but yes, he has been a failure, so far.

[moonslav59]

Been hearing a lot about Devers and O'Neill not getting enough RBIs, but these are some interesting numbers...

2024 RBI/ABs

.171 Devers (better than his career .170)

.158 Abreu

.153 Yoshida

.146 O'Neill (So what, if his RBIS are mostly solo blasts)

.132 Rafaela

.131 Ref

.124 Duran (lead off hitter)

.122 Wong

Now, BA w RISP does also tell a story, but sometimes batters walk, a lot, and that does not show up in BA. BA w RISP (75+ ABs):

.316 Yoshida

.309 Abreu

.305 Wong

.300 Duran

.258 Rafaela

.250 Ref

.241 O'Neill

.237 S Smith

.226 Devers (115 ABs is less than Duran and Rafaela!, surprisingly.)

Devers is worst on the team, while being 2nd in RBIS w RISP.

Devers also has a .922 OPS with men on base, including 12 HRS and 23 2B+3Bs for a team leading 64 RBI. His BA is .289 with men on. (.372 OBP reflects the 34 BBs, which is 14 more than the next guy- Duran with 20.)

I can see why some are frustrated that Devers does not have more RBI, sand he started off very slowly in this area. His last 40 ABs have not helped, either, but he is on the same pace of his career, and nobody felt like he was too low in RBI, before, this year.

Alot has to do with opportunity.

PAs w men on base: 269 (34 BBs and just 229 ABs w 64 RBI)

2023: 319 PAs (39 BB and 270 ABs w 82 RBI)

2022: 271 (30BB and 235 ABs w 76 RBI)

PAs with RISP: 146 (26 BB and just 115 ABs w 48 RBI)

2023: 190 PAs (31 BB and 152 ABs w 64 RBI)

2022: 154 (24 BBs and 125 ABs w 55 RBI)

Interesting debate.

[Old Red]

48 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Been hearing a lot about Devers and O'Neill not getting enough RBIs, but these are some interesting numbers...

2024 RBI/ABs

.171 Devers (better than his career .170)

.158 Abreu

.153 Yoshida

.146 O'Neill (So what, if his RBIS are mostly solo blasts)

.132 Rafaela

.131 Ref

.124 Duran (lead off hitter)

.122 Wong

Now, BA w RISP does also tell a story, but sometimes batters walk, a lot, and that does not show up in BA. BA w RISP (75+ ABs):

.316 Yoshida

.309 Abreu

.305 Wong

.300 Duran

.258 Rafaela

.250 Ref

.241 O'Neill

.237 S Smith

.226 Devers (115 ABs is less than Duran and Rafaela!, surprisingly.)

Devers is worst on the team, while being 2nd in RBIS w RISP.

Devers also has a .922 OPS with men on base, including 12 HRS and 23 2B+3Bs for a team leading 64 RBI. His BA is .289 with men on. (.372 OBP reflects the 34 BBs, which is 14 more than the next guy- Duran with 20.)

I can see why some are frustrated that Devers does not have more RBI, sand he started off very slowly in this area. His last 40 ABs have not helped, either, but he is on the same pace of his career, and nobody felt like he was too low in RBI, before, this year.

Alot has to do with opportunity.

PAs w men on base: 269 (34 BBs and just 229 ABs w 64 RBI)

2023: 319 PAs (39 BB and 270 ABs w 82 RBI)

2022: 271 (30BB and 235 ABs w 76 RBI)

PAs with RISP: 146 (26 BB and just 115 ABs w 48 RBI)

2023: 190 PAs (31 BB and 152 ABs w 64 RBI)

2022: 154 (24 BBs and 125 ABs w 55 RBI)

Interesting debate.

It’s all what have you done for me lately, and not the overall stats, and lately Devers has been Never Devers. Of course that could change with one swing of the bat, and he’ll go back to being Devers Forever again.

[Old Red]

3 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

pulling Criswell after 4 no-hit innings and 52 pitches was just effin' stupid.

Cora is still being raked over the coals for this outside of here. The consensus is if Cora is just going to be part of a plan to be drawn up before the game, and said he wouldn’t change it then what are the Red Sox paying him $7M+ for. If the analytics said to bring in a 44 yr old Little League coach who had pitched the day before to pitch to Detroit’s murderers row LHH who the NESN announcers said all weekend how weak the Tigers bats were then better gets some new stats. The Tigers being so weak with the bats most likely had something to do with Caswell’s success.

[Randy Red Sox]

14 hours ago, Old Red said:

There is plenty of Blame to go around, but three years in a row now is more than just coincidence, or bad luck at the end of the season, and Cora is at the helm of a sinking ship once again, and Cora just saying we got to do better just doesn’t cut it.

tough to really judge Cora until we give him some quality SP

[Randy Red Sox]

8 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Hendriks hasn't been a productive reliever since '22 and will be 36 next season. They can't rely on him to be the closer. 

Even hoping Story is the Opening Day SS is foolish IMO. 

b ut that is almost certain what will happen unless Breslow can find some team dumb enough to take Story off our hands.  Hendriks WILL be the closer

[Randy Red Sox]

9 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think it changes the offering price. Does Casas come down? IDK. 

No i think the reason Casas has not been extended is because Henry refuses to pay him what he thinks he is worth.

[mvp 78]

9 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

No i think the reason Casas has not been extended is because Henry refuses to pay him what he thinks he is worth.

We don't know what Casas wants. Maybe it's more than what other 1b have been extended for? If it's more than what Alonso got in his ARB years, plus a 30M extension for 2 years, it's a bad extension IMO. No reason to pay anything near there. 

[notin]

18 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Hendriks hasn't been a productive reliever since '22 and will be 36 next season. They can't rely on him to be the closer. 

Even hoping Story is the Opening Day SS is foolish IMO. 

Yeah yeah yeah.  And Sale hadn’t been a productive starter since 2019 and is now 35.  Are we learning lessons here or not?

Hope or not, we both (and hundreds of thousands of others) know that if Story is healthy, he’s the starting shortstop.  And will be for as long as that lasts…

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Yeah yeah yeah.  And Sale hadn’t been a productive starter since 2019 and is now 35.  Are we learning lessons here or not?

Hope or not, we both (and hundreds of thousands of others) know that if Story is healthy, he’s the starting shortstop.  And will be for as long as that lasts…

Remind me in 9 months how this works out for you.

[moonslav59]

10 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

tough to really judge Cora until we give him some quality SP

It's hard to bash JH and Bloomslow for so much, then expect Cora to work miracles. Even the guys he gets end up on the IL.

[Duran Is The Man]

49 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's hard to bash JH and Bloomslow for so much, then expect Cora to work miracles. Even the guys he gets end up on the IL.

his yanking Criswell the other day after 52 pitches was just plain stupid. and it's not the first time his love affair with Reliever Roulette has come back to bite him in the ass.

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

his yanking Criswell the other day after 52 pitches was just plain stupid. and it's not the first time his love affair with Reliever Roulette has come back to bite him in the ass.

I'm not saying he has never made mistakes. It's likely everybody is to blame for our decline, even the actual players.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not saying he has never made mistakes. It's likely everybody is to blame for our decline, even the actual players.

Everybody but us. It's not "our" decline as fans -- except for those jumping off the bandwagon because the Red Sox suck again. 

Nobody is perfect in the Red Sox organization or any other, but the failure for Boston's front office to change its consistently annual march to mediocrity the past half decade is to blame for "their" decline.

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Remind me in 9 months how this works out for you.

For me?

Im not the guy who already signed Hendriks (and Fulmer, who also has closing experience). And not going to be the guy who packages Mayer for pitching, leaving Story as the only SS on the roster with anything remotely resembling a defensive skill set…

[Hugh2]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Everybody but us. It's not "our" decline as fans -- except for those jumping off the bandwagon because the Red Sox suck again. 

Nobody is perfect in the Red Sox organization or any other, but the failure for Boston's front office to change its consistently annual march to mediocrity the past half decade is to blame for "their" decline.

Our expectations as fans should not decline, just because the front offices failures have declined their results the past half decade.  Once you go down that path, you sow the seeds for accepting yourself become the oakland a's

[Bellhorn04]

42 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

his yanking Criswell the other day after 52 pitches was just plain stupid. and it's not the first time his love affair with Reliever Roulette has come back to bite him in the ass.

Yeah, decisions like that one really put the anal in analytics. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

10 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Our expectations as fans should not decline, just because the front offices failures have declined their results the past half decade.  Once you go down that path, you sow the seeds for accepting yourself become the oakland a's

But John Henry wants Red Sox Nation to be the Oakland A's -- didn't you watch the movie?!?!