A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[moonslav59]

The post All Star Break Sox have not looked good, at all. The deadline came and went with nothing major happening, but some decent attempts at fixing the pitching staff with 3 rentals (Luis Garica, Lucas Sims and James Paxton) and a longer term try (Quinn Priester.) We also upgraded the catching depth with RHB Danny Jansen. We DFA'd McGuire, Chase Anderson and Brandon Walter. Yohan Ramirez was promoted and struggled in his first game.

 

I have to say the "realistic" view is not all that rosy, but other teams have some major issues, too. That might be our best hope. This team has fought back, several times, this year. The pitching has been in decline, while the offense has been improving. There is not much evidence the staff will turn it back around and do well, going forward. I'm not saying it can't happen, but there just hasn't been any signs of life.

 

Assuming Priester plays in AAA, to gain the 6th year of control, this will likely be the 26 (40):

 

SP: Houck, Pivetta, Paxton, Bello, Crawford (Priester, Keller AAA)

RP: Jansen, L Garcia, L Sims, Criswell, Kelly, Bernardino, Wink & Booser (Horn, Y Ramirez, Weissert in AAA)

C: Wong & Jansen (Heineman)

1B: S Smith (Casas at end of AUG?) (Dalbec)

2B: DHam & Romy (Grissom, Westbrook)

SS: Rafaela

3B: Devers

LF: O'Neill/Refsnyder

CF: Duran

RF: Abreu/O'Neill

DH: Yoshida (Valdez)

 

AA: Wikelman

15 Day IL: Martin & Slaten

60 Day IL: Giolito, Story, Whitlock, Murphy, Mata, Perales

Hendriks (end of AUG?)

 

The farm got a bit shallower, but we lost no top 10 prospects, except maybe Yorke.

 

We have our work cut out for us.

 

Link:

Part II: https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/20859-A-Realistic-View-of-2024-Part-II

 

[moonslav59]

SEA passed HOU for first in the ALW.

 

The WC race, assuming HOU loses:

 

64-45 NYY (0.5 from BAL)

58-48 MIN

59-49 KCR

 

56-50 BOS -2.0

55-52 HOU -3.5

55-52 TBR -3.5

52-56 TEX -7.0 (-4.5 from ALW)

 

The next few games gives us a great chance to gain on those around us, but the opposite could happen, too:

 

1 v SEA

Off

3@ TEX

3@ KCR

Off

3 v HOU

3 v TEX

4@ BAL

3@ HOU

Off August 22

[Randy Red Sox]

SEA passed HOU for first in the ALW.

 

The WC race, assuming HOU loses:

 

64-45 NYY (0.5 from BAL)

58-48 MIN

59-49 KCR

 

56-50 BOS -2.0

55-52 HOU -3.5

55-52 TBR -3.5

52-56 TEX -7.0 (-4.5 from ALW)

 

The next few games gives us a great chance to gain on those around us, but the opposite could happen, too:

 

1 v SEA

Off

3@ TEX

3@ KCR

Off

3 v HOU

3 v TEX

4@ BAL

3@ HOU

Off August 22

 

did we really need part 3 of this thread??

[moonslav59]

did we really need part 3 of this thread??

 

Tradition.

 

Have you given up?

[moonslav59]

Devers started the year having a tough time with RBIs. He's now on pace for about 100. His current .981 OPS is by far his highest career number and is 5th in MLB, as of now.

 

O'Neill is 13th at .900

 

Others:

.866 Refsnyder (.775 in July)

.857 Casas (played for Woo, tonight)

.853 Duran (.892 July)

.828 Abreu (.884 July)

.803 Wong (.654 July)

.773 Romy (.849 July)

.753 Yoshida (.914 July)

.722 Smith (.930 July)

.701 Rafaela (.775 July)

.690 DHam (.543 in Jul)

Note: Bogey has had a nice July and just passed DHam at .695.

 

Devers is 1.107 in July and O'Neill is .961

 

Too bad the pitching looks like the flip side of this.

 

 

Edited July 31, 2024 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

We've given up 7 runs or more in 9 of the last 10.

 

We had a shutout in the other game. Some might find it odd that the starting pitcher in that game got moved to the bullpen and mopped up last night.

 

Thinking outside the box, I guess.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We've given up 7 runs or more in 9 of the last 10.

 

We had a shutout in the other game. Some might find it odd that the starting pitcher in that game got moved to the bullpen and mopped up last night.

 

Thinking outside the box, I guess.

 

Thinking outside the box can get you called out, if you have a bat in your hands and make contact...

 

... but you should be ok if you play for the Red Sox and there's a runner on third with less than two outs.

[moonslav59]

We've given up 7 runs or more in 9 of the last 10.

 

We had a shutout in the other game. Some might find it odd that the starting pitcher in that game got moved to the bullpen and mopped up last night.

 

Thinking outside the box, I guess.

 

Criswell should be starting.

 

I may be wrong about "going with the hot bat," but pitching is a whole other ball of wax.

[Old Red]

Criswell should be starting.

 

I may be wrong about "going with the hot bat," but pitching is a whole other ball of wax.

 

I thought Criswell should have made the rotation out of ST, and Whit started in the BP, but right now I don’t see any problem with him being the long man. More than likely another starter will go down anyway, and Criswell will be back in the rotation at some point. Yes he had that good start in Colorado, but he hadn’t been all that impressive before that, and had been sent back to Woo. I’m not sure that Paxton is going to be that much better though.

[Bellhorn04]

We were 56-50 last year and we're 56-50 this year.

[notin]

We've given up 7 runs or more in 9 of the last 10.

 

We had a shutout in the other game. Some might find it odd that the starting pitcher in that game got moved to the bullpen and mopped up last night.

 

Thinking outside the box, I guess.

 

I find it odd. Moving Criswell to the bullpen/spot starter role makes sense. But he seems more capable of handling critical innings than a few other arms in the pen, at least until Sims and Garcia suit up…

[notin]

We've given up 7 runs or more in 9 of the last 10.

 

We had a shutout in the other game. Some might find it odd that the starting pitcher in that game got moved to the bullpen and mopped up last night.

 

Thinking outside the box, I guess.

 

To be fair, far too many of those runs were ghost runners…

[Old Red]

To be fair, far too many of those runs were ghost runners…

 

Yea that’s one way to look at it, but a very good way, and I don’t think most Red Sox fans, or management for that matter are looking at it that way. I’d say the glass is 99% empty.

[notin]

Yea that’s one way to look at it, but a very good way, and I don’t think most Red Sox fans, or management for that matter are looking at it that way. I’d say the glass is 99% empty.

 

If the Sox had a functioning bullpen, they easily have 3-4 more wins.

 

Extra innings have been especially deadly. I don’t think they’ve kept a ghost runner on base since the ASB…

[MADSTORK]

If the Sox had a functioning bullpen, they easily have 3-4 more wins.

 

Extra innings have been especially deadly. I don’t think they’ve kept a ghost runner on base since the ASB…

 

Lmao!

 

If I had numbers 9 15 and 25 I would have one powerball!

 

Trades were garbage !

Beer leaguers and a Pitt P with far less K than IP

You lost 3 legit prospects when Ownership says it’s “youth movement “

3 8 post break

3 games out of a Wildcard

 

Once again “roller coaster ownership” to appease the masses

Breezelow just p!seed down your back and told you it’s raining

 

Brilliant!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If the Sox had a functioning bullpen, they easily have 3-4 more wins.

 

Extra innings have been especially deadly. I don’t think they’ve kept a ghost runner on base since the ASB…

 

It's hard when you go to grab them, and... nothing is there.

 

Like Sam Kennedy interviews; too much transparency.

[moonslav59]

Our pen was top 5 to 10 in many key categories, all year long, until the AS break. Then, just about every one fell apart. Their replacements did even worse.

 

When you couple this with the pretty steady decline by the rotation, since early May, one can argue we are lucky to be 56-50.

 

I've not given up, but this staff needs to right themselves, and quickly. The next 25 days, we play all the team near us in the WC standing.

[notin]

It's hard when you go to grab them, and... nothing is there.

 

Like Sam Kennedy interviews; too much transparency.

 

It’s fun when you catch and unmask them, only to find out it’s always been Mr. Hollowell, the groundskeeper. And he would have gotten away with it if not for those meddling kids…

[mvp 78]

Lmao!

 

If I had numbers 9 15 and 25 I would have one powerball!

 

Trades were garbage !

Beer leaguers and a Pitt P with far less K than IP

You lost 3 legit prospects when Ownership says it’s “youth movement “

3 8 post break

3 games out of a Wildcard

 

Once again “roller coaster ownership” to appease the masses

Breezelow just p!seed down your back and told you it’s raining

 

Brilliant!

 

You wouldn't know a legit prospect if it s*** down your mouth.

 

The rules are the rules and the facts are the facts.

[mvp 78]

We were 56-50 last year and we're 56-50 this year.

 

Seems like they are in better position to win games in Aug and Sept this time around though?

[notin]

Seems like they are in better position to win games in Aug and Sept this time around though?

 

Luis Urias just didn’t provide the necessary impact…

[Old Red]

If the Sox had a functioning bullpen, they easily have 3-4 more wins.

 

Extra innings have been especially deadly. I don’t think they’ve kept a ghost runner on base since the ASB…

 

I agree with the 3-4 more wins with a better backend of the BP. I’ve been saying for over a week now that the BP needed help at the AS break, and nothing was done. You won’t get those losses back either.

[mvp 78]

Luis Urias just didn’t provide the necessary impact…

 

90 OPS+

0.0 bWAR

 

The trade was whatever. He was a fine fill in for the remainder of the year. Trading him after the season seems like the right thing to do as well since he hasn't been very good for SEA.

[Duran Is The Man]

Luis Urias just didn’t provide the necessary impact…

 

i watched him all last week in OKC, playing for Tacoma. lazy, useless, piss-poor attitude, and struck out looking numerous times.

[Nick]

Priester only has 45 days of major league service according to Cot's.

 

He can come up to the majors and play rest of the year and will still have 6 years of team control beginning in 2025.

 

It's really a low threahold. Less than 172 days out of typical 187 days season.

Edited July 31, 2024 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Priester only has 45 days of major league service according to Cot's.

 

He can come up to the majors and play rest of the year and will still have 6 years of team control beginning in 2025.

 

It's really a low threshold. Less than 172 days out of typical 187 days season.

 

MLBTR said this:

 

He has around 133 days of major league service. It’s possible he crosses the 172-day threshold to reach a full service year in 2024, but he’d still be under control for five seasons beyond this one. If the Sox send him down to Triple-A Worcester at any point, that could push his free agent timeline back and give Boston six full years of control.

 

This indicates he can be on the big club for about 38-39 days to keep the 6th year of control.

[Maxbialystock]

A small point, but in fact the Sox win last night without the errors by Smith, Rafaela, and Wong. The Sox scored 6 runs, all earned. The Mariners scored 10 runs, 5 of which were unearned.

 

The 2024 Sox hitting is about as good as it was in 2021, and the pitching is better. So right now the defense is once again the problem as it was earlier this season. It remains to be seen whether Breslow's acquisitions will help the Sox pitching. Last night Paxton went 4.1 IP while giving up 3 ER.

[Nick]

MLBTR said this:

 

He has around 133 days of major league service. It’s possible he crosses the 172-day threshold to reach a full service year in 2024, but he’d still be under control for five seasons beyond this one. If the Sox send him down to Triple-A Worcester at any point, that could push his free agent timeline back and give Boston six full years of control.

 

This indicates he can be on the big club for about 38-39 days to keep the 6th year of control.

 

You are likely to be correct.

 

In 2 years, he has started 14 out of his 20 games pitched along with having pitched 90+ innings. I doubt he can do all that in 49 days.

 

Let's not be stupid and have him garner a year's service time.

[mvp 78]

Priester only has 45 days of major league service according to Cot's.

 

He can come up to the majors and play rest of the year and will still have 6 years of team control beginning in 2025.

 

It's really a low threahold. Less than 172 days out of typical 187 days season.

 

Cots isn't very reliable anymore unfortunately. That may be the number prior to this year? IDK.

[moonslav59]

Cots isn't very reliable anymore unfortunately. That may be the number prior to this year? IDK.

 

It seems he has more than 45 days. And it looks like just 2023 was exactly 45 days, so I think they just don't update those numbers until the season is over.