Trades?

[moonslav59]

Given O'Neil's history of being an all star level player when 100% healthy, if he is again playing that way and it's only a rental I can see him getting a rentals ransom....a good rental. Teams will overpay at the deadline. Not sure we could get a top 100 prospect for him, but a guy who is on the fringe who has the upside to blossom? I can certainly see that. Maybe. But at this point they shouldn't sell, although they're one bad losing streak away from being sellers.

 

To me, if Pivetta does well until the deadline, he and Jansen would get the best return.

 

Pivetta has been good for several years, but he has now gone a whole calendar year of pitching very well.

 

Teams look to improve their rotations, going into August.

 

Teams without a solid closer will be fighting over Jansen, too.

 

There will be a few big bat rentals out there. O'Neill should get a decent prospect, but IMO, not as good as Pivetta & Jansen.

 

Martin has something to prove, first.

[Larry Cook]

2 prospects for O'Neilll? A team would have to be pretty hard up for him. Also, the Sox really enjoy having his bat in the lineup.

 

Jansen and Martin combined have a much higher trade value than O'Neilll IMO, Pivetta too.

 

From your fingers to breslow’s eyes!!!!! The more we can get, the better!

[Randy Red Sox]

To me, if Pivetta does well until the deadline, he and Jansen would get the best return.

 

Pivetta has been good for several years, but he has now gone a whole calendar year of pitching very well.

 

Teams look to improve their rotations, going into August.

 

Teams without a solid closer will be fighting over Jansen, too.

 

There will be a few big bat rentals out there. O'Neill should get a decent prospect, but IMO, not as good as Pivetta & Jansen.

 

Martin has something to prove, first.

 

I expect the Sox to stand pat save adding a depth low cost piece or 2.

[notin]

To me, if Pivetta does well until the deadline, he and Jansen would get the best return.

 

Pivetta has been good for several years, but he has now gone a whole calendar year of pitching very well.

 

Teams look to improve their rotations, going into August.

 

Teams without a solid closer will be fighting over Jansen, too.

 

There will be a few big bat rentals out there. O'Neill should get a decent prospect, but IMO, not as good as Pivetta & Jansen.

 

Martin has something to prove, first.

 

 

If the Sox are selling, Jansen, Pivetta, Refsnyder and Martin are the most desirable targets. If they’re buying, I do wonder who they are able to part with…

[moonslav59]

I expect the Sox to stand pat save adding a depth low cost piece or 2.

 

I agree. We might even buy and sell.

 

I doubt anything major happens.

[moonslav59]

If the Sox are selling, Jansen, Pivetta, Refsnyder and Martin are the most desirable targets. If they’re buying, I do wonder who they are able to part with…

 

Agreed. O’Neill and McGuire would be next on the sell list

[Randy Red Sox]

I agree. We might even buy and sell.

 

I doubt anything major happens.

 

Breslow promised we would be one or the other lol

[notin]

Agreed. O’Neill and McGuire would be next on the sell list

 

Trading either of them will require a really specific situation…

[moonslav59]

Trading either of them will require a really specific situation…

 

Lots of teams look for a power bat or a very good backup catcher/decent starting catcher.

 

The return might not be good, but several teams will want those two, if healthy and available.

[cp176]

Just the other day it seems, some here wanted to see Duran traded. Proves that it is pretty tough to make the right deal. Lot of luck involved in playing the trade game. There is no question that with the young quality players starting to pile up that something might have to be done. It's a big guessing game until you actually see them at the big league level for a period of time. Duran for sure is starting to look, sound, and play like a special player. Mayer and Teel? good problems to have.

[Nick]

Just the other day it seems, some here wanted to see Duran traded. Proves that it is pretty tough to make the right deal. Lot of luck involved in playing the trade game. There is no question that with the young quality players starting to pile up that something might have to be done. It's a big guessing game until you actually see them at the big league level for a period of time. Duran for sure is starting to look, sound, and play like a special player. Mayer and Teel? good problems to have.

 

I think they made the right call on Duran, Rafaela and most recently Abreu.

 

Cora is high on both Valdez and Hamilton.

 

Hamilton has shown what speed can do. He can essentially be on second anytime he wants after a walk or a single. Speed kills. He can score from second base on a single to left, typically it takes us 3 singles to score with other players at Fenway.

 

I love the athleticism of this team.

 

Yoshida does not fit into our future. He has to go. Really a bad signing by the Sox. WE WASTE MORE MONEY THAN A DRUNKEN SAILOR ON A LEAVE. Just unfreakin' believable.

[Bellhorn04]

I think they made the right call on Duran, Rafaela and most recently Abreu.

 

Cora is high on both Valdez and Hamilton.

 

Hamilton has shown what speed can do. He can essentially be on second anytime he wants after a walk or a single. Speed kills. He can score from second base on a single to left, typically it takes us 3 singles to score with other players at Fenway.

 

Yeah, I think the stat mavens have calculated that you have to be successful on at least 75% of steal attempts before it's a positive.

 

Hamilton is at 95% and Duran is at 86%. So turn 'em loose, absolutely.

[mvp 78]

To me, if Pivetta does well until the deadline, he and Jansen would get the best return.

 

Pivetta has been good for several years, but he has now gone a whole calendar year of pitching very well.

 

Teams look to improve their rotations, going into August.

 

Teams without a solid closer will be fighting over Jansen, too.

 

There will be a few big bat rentals out there. O'Neill should get a decent prospect, but IMO, not as good as Pivetta & Jansen.

 

Martin has something to prove, first.

 

Pivetta since coming back from the IL:.

 

9 GS (3 QS)

46.2 IP

4.82 ERA

4.92 FIP

791 OPS

 

He has not been good and would not fetch much of a return.

[moonslav59]

Pivetta since coming back from the IL:.

 

9 GS (3 QS)

46.2 IP

4.82 ERA

4.92 FIP

791 OPS

 

He has not been good and would not fetch much of a return.

 

He still gets maybe 5-6 more starts before the deadline. If he does well in those starts, he gets more than O'Neill and probably Martin will get. Jansen looks to be the big prize, right now, but more and more, it looks like we won't be sellers, anyway.

[mvp 78]

He still gets maybe 5-6 more starts before the deadline. If he does well in those starts, he gets more than O'Neill and probably Martin will get. Jansen looks to be the big prize, right now, but more and more, it looks like we won't be sellers, anyway.

 

I don't think a backend starter gets you much. We had high hopes for Pivetta going into the season considering his turnaround last year, but that seems to be out the window at this point. Not much meat left on the bone. He's a very low ceiling guy. Martin's skillset is much more valuable to teams that are in contention. Fortunately for the Sox, they are in contention this year so I don't think either will be traded if the Sox continue their current trajectory.

[notin]

Pivetta since coming back from the IL:.

 

9 GS (3 QS)

46.2 IP

4.82 ERA

4.92 FIP

791 OPS

 

He has not been good and would not fetch much of a return.

 

He has two points in his favor.

 

1. When you look at the list of potential free agent pitchers, a lot of the bigger names (Burnes, Fried, etc) are on contenders who won’t be selling.

 

2. And the ones who might be on the market (Montgomery?) do make significantly more money than Pivetta…

[moonslav59]

I don't think a backend starter gets you much. We had high hopes for Pivetta going into the season considering his turnaround last year, but that seems to be out the window at this point. Not much meat left on the bone. He's a very low ceiling guy. Martin's skillset is much more valuable to teams that are in contention. Fortunately for the Sox, they are in contention this year so I don't think either will be traded if the Sox continue their current trajectory.

 

I'm not sure how many teams have a SP with an ERA+ of 103 (Pivetta's with the Sox) and a 4.24 FIP as their 4-5 SP'er. For many teams, these numbers beat their #3 SP'er.

 

From 2023-2024 (27 GS and 22 RP games,) he has an ERA+ of 110 and an FIP of 4.09 (ERA 4.04.) That is worth something to many teams in contention and short a SP'er or two.

 

From July 8 to today, there are 76 pitchers with 130+ IP. Here is where Nick ranks:

 

5th in K-BB% at 25.2% (just below Sale by 0.1%)

9th in xFIP at 3.13 (one of your favorite stats)

22nd in ERA- at 83 (just ahead of Gallen and Crawford)

26th in ERA at 3.63

31st in FIP at 3.78 (same as Crawford)

39th in fWAR at 2.2

 

My point was also about having a good 5-6 next starts to bring back his value, and not about his last few starts since returning from the IL.

[moonslav59]

He has two points in his favor.

 

1. When you look at the list of potential free agent pitchers, a lot of the bigger names (Burnes, Fried, etc) are on contenders who won’t be selling.

 

2. And the ones who might be on the market (Montgomery?) do make significantly more money than Pivetta…

 

With so many teams in the playoff hunt, many need dependable SP'ers, and would jump at a SP'er with a 4.05 ERA since 2013 (110 ERA+)

4.09 FIP

1.13 WHIP

 

Take a look at some rotations of contending teams.

 

I'm not saying he'd net us a top 5 or 10 prospect, but I think he would bring back more than some seem to think he will.

 

I do agree that Martin is a better pitcher, but he has some concerns, and not just about age decline, and he is not a closer. Pivetta can easily triple the IP Martin will et over the last 2 months of 2024. That has real value.

[Bellhorn04]

I do agree that Martin is a better pitcher, but he has some concerns, and not just about age decline, and he is not a closer. Pivetta can easily triple the IP Martin will et over the last 2 months of 2024. That has real value.

 

Starters and high leverage relievers are just totally different profiles.

[notin]

Josh Winckowski (surplus value - 5.7mill) for Pete Alonso (6.3 mill).

 

Mets get a solid bullpen arm with 4+ years of control. Red Sox get a slugging right-handed 1b/DH who screams at opposing pitchers if his moonshots drift into foul territory…

[mvp 78]

With so many teams in the playoff hunt, many need dependable SP'ers, and would jump at a SP'er with a 4.05 ERA since 2013 (110 ERA+)

4.09 FIP

1.13 WHIP

 

Take a look at some rotations of contending teams.

 

I'm not saying he'd net us a top 5 or 10 prospect, but I think he would bring back more than some seem to think he will.

 

I do agree that Martin is a better pitcher, but he has some concerns, and not just about age decline, and he is not a closer. Pivetta can easily triple the IP Martin will et over the last 2 months of 2024. That has real value.

 

And the Sox will be IN the playoff hunt and will be OUT on trading a guy like Pivetta. They don't have internal options to replace him at the moment.

[moonslav59]

Starters and high leverage relievers are just totally different profiles.

 

Agreed, and it depends on the other team needs, but if you go by fWAR which tolts heavily to more IP as having more value, Pivetta might be worth more.

[moonslav59]

And the Sox will be IN the playoff hunt and will be OUT on trading a guy like Pivetta. They don't have internal options to replace him at the moment.

 

I have agreed on this pint.

 

It looks like none will be traded, unless it's a sideways move ML'er for ML'er in a higher need area.

 

I don't see Pivetta, Jansen or Martin being traded. O'Neill probably won't be either, since he bats RH'd.

 

We were just talking theoretical trade value in 6 weeks.

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed, and it depends on the other team needs, but if you go by fWAR which tolts heavily to more IP as having more value, Pivetta might be worth more.

 

Needs are everything.

 

Teams who badly need a high leverage reliever for the playoffs have been known to pay by a lot. Some thought Theo Epstein was nuts when he traded Torres for Chapman.

[Old Red]

And the Sox will be IN the playoff hunt and will be OUT on trading a guy like Pivetta. They don't have internal options to replace him at the moment.

 

Hopefully yes the Red Sox will still be in the playoff hunt a month from now, and there won’t be ANY sell offs going on, but buying a piece, or two. Like I said yesterday if a sell off is done while the Red Sox are still in contention it won’t be MOOn’s crybaby fans just revolting, but the players in that clubhouse probably led by Raffy. With the Red Sox playing as good as they are, and moving up in the wildcard standings there is just as much sell off talk going on as there was all off season.

[mvp 78]

I have agreed on this pint.

 

It looks like none will be traded, unless it's a sideways move ML'er for ML'er in a higher need area.

 

I don't see Pivetta, Jansen or Martin being traded. O'Neill probably won't be either, since he bats RH'd.

 

We were just talking theoretical trade value in 6 weeks.

 

What's a higher need than SP?

[mvp 78]

Hopefully yes the Red Sox will still be in the playoff hunt a month from now, and there won’t be ANY sell offs going on, but buying a piece, or two. Like I said yesterday if a sell off is done while the Red Sox are still in contention it won’t be MOOn’s crybaby fans just revolting, but the players in that clubhouse probably led by Raffy. With the Red Sox playing as good as they are, and moving up in the wildcard standings there is just as much sell off talk going on as there was all off season.

 

Last year, they really didn't deserve to buy. We'll see if they are in better position this season. The pitching is in much better shape at the moment, that's for sure.

[Old Red]

Last year, they really didn't deserve to buy. We'll see if they are in better position this season. The pitching is in much better shape at the moment, that's for sure.

 

The pitching is in better shape, but they do need another starter, and most of all for the rotation to stay healthy.

[moonslav59]

What's a higher need than SP?

 

It was 1st on my list.

 

Again, we were talking as if we were going to trade and be sellers. It's hard to imagine you not knowing that.

[moonslav59]

Needs are everything.

 

Teams who badly need a high leverage reliever for the playoffs have been known to pay by a lot. Some thought Theo Epstein was nuts when he traded Torres for Chapman.

 

Indeed, but again, Martin is not a closer and Pivetta will likely triple his IP in AUG & SEP, and this was all based on Nick doing well over the next 6 weeks.