A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

BTW- do you still thing the Sox should have signed Montgomery?

 

Yes.

 

I also likes Imanga and Seth Lugo more than Gio and others.

 

I also thought a short deal for Sonny Gray made sense.

 

I was not high on Stroman, and I felt he was like Gio, but he'd have been a better pick, in hindsight.

 

[moonslav59]

Kavadas was an option when they brought in Cooper and Smith. Usually you do the internal ones first, since they’re easier to undo of they don’t work out. But with Cooper (DFA) and Smith (opt out) becoming available when they did, they got first shot.

 

The problem is Kavadas and Dalbec could absolutely be worse, despite biased rationale to the contrary. Heck Dalbec is already worse. But to make room for Kavadas, you have to DFA one of the current first baseman. Meaning if Kavadas is worse, then what?

 

Worse than Smith cannot make a significant difference, unless he goes 1 for 40.

 

You think there are no more Smith's out there? Hell, Smith himself will likely be available, again in a month or two, assuming Casas is not back by then.

[moonslav59]

And Smith has been awful in every area. I don't see where there's a lot to lose.

 

...and again, this is not just a one month slump for Smith.

 

I don't get the faith placed in Smith. He hasn't been good since his 199 PA season of 2020. Yes, 2020, for God's sake!

 

.667 in '21 (83 OPS+) Even Dalbec was way, way, way better that year

.560 in '22 (62 OPS+) Dalbec was at .652 and 80 OPS+

.692 in '23 (94 OPS+) was an improvement but still really bad for a 1Bman.

.556 in '24 (57 OPS+)

 

He sucks on D.

 

He is below replacement value, yet we worry about not being able to replace him, if Kavadas sucks, too?

 

LOL

[moonslav59]

That might happen at some point. But do the Sox swap out every player who struggles for 50-60 PA? That level of impatience is not likely to be productive…

 

Can you stop with the 50-60 PA talk?

 

How about his last 1308 PAs?

 

.660 OPS and 84 OPS+

 

While this is better than Dalbec's last 2 season's, Dalbec's last 1010 (career) PAs is at .723 and 92 OPS+.

 

(I'm not advocating for Dalbec over Smith or Cooper. I'd like to see Kavadas replace Smith.)

 

[mvp 78]

Just replace Smith with Kavadas and keep Cooper. That's what moon's been saying. I already said Dalbec is done.

 

We didn't get Smith and Cooper on a package deal.

 

Cooper has been WORSE than Smith.

[moonslav59]

Cooper has been WORSE than Smith.

 

In the context of bringing up Kavadas, replacing the LHB Smith makes more sense. Plus she sucks on D.

 

The debate on Cooper is vs Dalbec, and choosing Cooper is a valid choice.

[mvp 78]

Why call up Kavadas if Casas will be here in a few weeks?

[moonslav59]

Cooper has been WORSE than Smith.

 

fWAR

-0.2 Cooper

-0.4 Smith

[moonslav59]

Why call up Kavadas if Casas will be here in a few weeks?

 

Will he?

 

Why not try to win in the next 3 or more weeks,

?

[mvp 78]

fWAR

-0.2 Cooper

-0.4 Smith

 

-0.5 Cooper (in fewer games)

-0.4 Smith

[mvp 78]

Will he?

 

Why not try to win in the next 3 or more weeks,

?

 

The difference between parttime Dom Smith and Niko Kavadas isn't going to thrown the season over the course of 3 weeks.

[Old Red]

Why call up Kavadas if Casas will be here in a few weeks?

 

I believe Kavadas would have been brought up already if he was coming up. 1B has been a production problem since Casas went down, but their are more problems than 1B on why the team is 10-14 in May.

[Old Red]

The difference between parttime Dom Smith and Niko Kavadas isn't going to thrown the season over the course of 3 weeks.

 

Exactly! The fact that the Red Sox have hung on to Bobby D should tell you something. I believe Kavadas is a none story except for on here.

[mvp 78]

I believe Kavadas would have been brought up already if he was coming up. 1B has been a production problem since Casas went down, but their are more problems than 1B on why the team is 10-14 in May.

 

Pitcher regression.

[Bellhorn04]

-0.5 Cooper (in fewer games)

-0.4 Smith

 

I see the same numbers as moon does on Fangraphs. -0.2 and -0.4.

[Old Red]

Pitcher regression.

 

Plus very inconsistent bats especially with runners on base also.

[mvp 78]

I see the same numbers as moon does on Fangraphs. -0.2 and -0.4.

 

Now do bWAR!

[notin]

Plus very inconsistent bats especially with runners on base also.

 

Disagree. Those bats are very consistent with runners on base. Unfortunately...

[Maxbialystock]

I believe Kavadas would have been brought up already if he was coming up. 1B has been a production problem since Casas went down, but their are more problems than 1B on why the team is 10-14 in May.

 

And that's the real point. Why this endless discussion of 1b when it's one of 9 positions, not including pitchers, of which every MLB team has 13?

[Maxbialystock]

Disagree. Those bats are very consistent with runners on base. Unfortunately...

 

Agree they are "consistent" as in consistently bad. As I've said before, I think the main reason is then inexperience of most of the lineup.

 

Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Wong, Casas, Hamilton, and Grissom are all in their first or second seasons in MLB. McGuire and Gonzalez have more seasons than 2, but neither has been a regular. And the same applies to Refsnyder as an outfielder.

 

O'Neill played 6 seasons for the Cardinals, but most of them were as a backup. He was fantastic 3 years ago with 141 games, OPS .912, and 34 dingers, but has tapered off since then.

 

So the one bonafide regular in this lineup is Rafael Devers, who is in his 7th straight season as the Sox starting third baseman.

Edited May 28, 2024 by Maxbialystock

[mvp 78]

Agree they are "consistent" as in consistently bad. As I've said before, I think the main reason is then inexperience of most of the lineup.

 

Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Wong, Casas, Hamilton, and Grissom are all in their first or second seasons in MLB. McGuire and Gonzalez have more seasons than 2, but neither has been a regular. And the same applies to Refsnyder as an outfielder.

 

O'Neill played 6 seasons for the Cardinals, but most of them were as a backup. He was fantastic 3 years ago with 141 games, OPS .912, and 34 dingers, but has tapered off since then.

 

So the one bonafide regular in this lineup is Rafael Devers, who is in his 7th straight season as the Sox starting third baseman.

 

It's not that O'Neilll was a backup, it was that he was perpetually injured.

 

Also, calling up Kavadas doesn't help with the experience issue.

[mvp 78]

Duran has the second most GS with the Sox for this roster.

[Bellhorn04]

And that's the real point. Why this endless discussion of 1b when it's one of 9 positions, not including pitchers, of which every MLB team has 13?

 

Because:

 

-Our offense has been terrible

-First base is an offense-first position

-Cooper and Smith have been terrible

-Kavadas has a 1.031 OPS, 10 HR and 30 RBI for Worcester

[Maxbialystock]

Because:

 

-Our offense has been terrible

-First base is an offense-first position

-Cooper and Smith have been terrible

-Kavadas has a 1.031 OPS, 10 HR and 30 RBI for Worcester

 

Here's what Sox Prospects says about Kavadas: "Potential emergency bench bat. Ceiling of platoon bench bat. Does not project to add much value defensively or on the bases. . . Considerable swing-and-miss in his game, which as been exposed to a more singificant degree in the upper minors . . . holes in his swing."

[dgalehouse]

Bringing up Kavadas seems like a logical move. Almost in the no-brainer category. I don't see any particular downside to it. Maybe Breslow knows something we don't.

[notin]

Bringing up Kavadas seems like a logical move. Almost in the no-brainer category. I don't see any particular downside to it. Maybe Breslow knows something we don't.

 

Thinking Breslow knows something we don’t. Kavadas has been an option all along but keeps getting passed on. It’s not like Breslow never heard of the guy…

[Maxbialystock]

Thinking Breslow knows something we don’t. Kavadas has been an option all along but keeps getting passed on. It’s not like Breslow never heard of the guy…

 

Plus Cora doing all he can to expose the weaknesses of Smith and Cooper--by playing them.

[gojohn99]

RotoBaller likes Kavadas

 

Boston Red Sox first base prospect Niko Kavadas has been putting together a good season for Triple-A Worcester. The 25-year-old finished the 2023 season with Worcester and struggled, but he has been a changed hitter in his second turn with the club. Kavadas is currently hitting .280 with 10 homers and 30 RBI to go along with an impressive 1.031 OPS. Kavadas isn't as highly touted and some of the other Red Sox prospects, but he has consistently hit 20 or more homers in his professional career and continues to fly under the radar. The Red Sox have gotten little production from Garrett Cooper and Dominic Smith at first base, but Triston Casas (rib) is starting to resume baseball activities and will be firmly entrenched at first base when healthy. Kavadas will likely get an opportunity to play in the big leagues this season, but can be ignored for now

[moonslav59]

Thinking Breslow knows something we don’t. Kavadas has been an option all along but keeps getting passed on. It’s not like Breslow never heard of the guy…

 

Suddenly, a guy is "ready."

 

I trust Brez, too, but he may be close to making the call. Maybe not.

[moonslav59]

Kavadas loses all platoon benefits, when Casas returns. (Cooper matches up better as the back-up 1Bman.

 

To me, the time for Kavadas is now or maybe never. It's just my opinion, and I am not going to say Brez is wrong not to do it. He's knows more than I do.

 

The ones closest to Kavadas know best.