A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Maxbialystock]

The only thing that's making me a little nervous is the thought that John Henry is watching all this and thinking it's proof we can win on the cheap...

 

And the only thing that makes me a little nervous about what you just wrote is that, if John Henry spends large--as the bulk of talksoxers want him too--the prices at Fenway will go up and up and up. This won't affect me one bit, but it will those attending fans who are in fact part of the experience for us stay at home viewers.

 

Also, don't forget what you've written about the randomness of who wins the playoffs and World Series. I remember both the 1954 World Series--in which the juggernaut Cleveland Guardians with their incredible pitching were swept by the NY Giants--and the 1955 WS when the Dodgers finally, finally beat the Yankees, 4 games to 3 with Johnny Podres getting 3 wins.

Edited April 23, 2024 by Maxbialystock

[Bellhorn04]

DBags had a legit ace and another All Star starting pitcher. That helps with the CRAPSHOOT. Sox don't have either.

 

Not showing much love for what Houck and Crawford are doing.

[Bellhorn04]

Is it out of it if they were 2-3 games out? Sometimes!

 

Sox lost 2 of 3 in OAK prior to the deadline and the final 3 games in July. They were going the wrong way. It seemed obvious at the time. Once they hit the September AL East heavy schedule, they were going to struggle and not be able to stay in it.

 

And they won 5 in a row before those 3 losses, including 2 against Atlanta. They were 15-8 in July.

 

Pretty small sample stuff we're talking here.

[Bellhorn04]

Recently, there has been a bigger "crapshoot" aspect to the playoffs. I agree.

 

It's not all black and white. It's not just about the best record not winning. A top 3-4 team wins more than a 5-8+ team.

 

I'm not sure if the trend will continue.

 

None of us should be sure about anything LOL

[Bellhorn04]

And the only thing that makes me a little nervous about what you just wrote is that, if John Henry spends large--as the bulk of talksoxers want him too--the prices at Fenway will go up and up and up. This won't affect me one bit, but it will those attending fans who are in fact part of the experience for us stay at home viewers.

 

Also, don't forget what you've written about the randomness of who wins the playoffs and World Series. I remember both the 1954 World Series--in which the juggernaut Cleveland Guardians with their incredible pitching were swept by the NY Giants--and the 1955 WS when the Dodgers finally, finally beat the Yankees, 4 games to 3 with Johnny Podres getting 3 wins.

 

Sure, even in the good old days of 2 teams making the playoffs, period, there were massive upsets.

[Bellhorn04]

Who do we think is most responsible for signing Bailey BTW?

[mvp 78]

Not showing much love for what Houck and Crawford are doing.

 

Currently doing. Need to see it over the long haul. Houck has never pitched a full season. Crawford will not end the season with a 0.66 ERA. Crawford's xFIP is 3.89.

[mvp 78]

And the only thing that makes me a little nervous about what you just wrote is that, if John Henry spends large--as the bulk of talksoxers want him too--the prices at Fenway will go up and up and up. This won't affect me one bit, but it will those attending fans who are in fact part of the experience for us stay at home viewers.

 

Also, don't forget what you've written about the randomness of who wins the playoffs and World Series. I remember both the 1954 World Series--in which the juggernaut Cleveland Guardians with their incredible pitching were swept by the NY Giants--and the 1955 WS when the Dodgers finally, finally beat the Yankees, 4 games to 3 with Johnny Podres getting 3 wins.

 

The prices at Fenway go up no matter what the payroll is.

[mvp 78]

And they won 5 in a row before those 3 losses, including 2 against Atlanta. They were 15-8 in July.

 

Pretty small sample stuff we're talking here.

 

I'm just saying how I felt at the time. Others may have felt differently. Again, I was shown to be correct.

[mvp 78]

Who do we think is most responsible for signing Bailey BTW?

 

Breslow, though I did see someone posit that they Sox were talking to Bailey before they were done with Breslow. I think the two were really done in tandem.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm just saying how I felt at the time. Others may have felt differently. Again, I was shown to be correct.

 

I'd really prefer to see you predict something positive and be correct.

[Bellhorn04]

Breslow, though I did see someone posit that they Sox were talking to Bailey before they were done with Breslow. I think the two were really done in tandem.

 

They must have waved some decent money at Bailey too. Especially considering the Giants were kind of in buy mode this offseason.

[Bellhorn04]

Per Wikipedia:

 

Bailey serves as Director of Development for the Strike 3 Foundation, a non-profit charity dedicated to pediatric cancer research, founded by former Athletics and Red Sox teammate Craig Breslow.

[Old Red]

I'm just saying how I felt at the time. Others may have felt differently. Again, I was shown to be correct.

 

You were right, because of what was done, or wasn’t done, but if things were done differently the results could have turned out different, but there is no way to know that now.

[notin]

The only thing that's making me a little nervous is the thought that John Henry is watching all this and thinking it's proof we can win on the cheap...

 

So?

 

If they WIN on the cheap, I'm fine with it...

[notin]

I don't view trading Kike as "selling." The guy sucked. If we DFA'd him, I would not have blinked an eye.

 

Urias was an attempt to improve the team, but he was not a rental and not very significant.

 

I guess I'm okay with saying it was a teeny, tiny buy. I don't view trading Kike as a "sell." It was a dump. Getting Robertson was surprising, to me. (We also got Hagenman.) Perhaps, in light of what we got, it can be viewed as a "sell," but both of those trades were so minor, I called it a do nothing deadline. I still do.

 

 

Taking your opinion of Kike out of it, he was dealt for minor league pitching on July 25th. The pitchers might not have been all that exciting, but neither was Kike. Bottom line - he was a late July trade for the best available minor league talent. That's a sell to me...

[Bellhorn04]

Taking your opinion of Kike out of it, he was dealt for minor league pitching on July 25th. The pitchers might not have been all that exciting, but neither was Kike. Bottom line - he was a late July trade for the best available minor league talent. That's a sell to me...

 

But you said he "failed", no?

[notin]

But you said he "failed", no?

 

Yes.

 

The point of doing both is to get better now and in the future. In 2022 and 2023, he did nothing to make those current teams better at the deadline...

[Bellhorn04]

Yes.

 

The point of doing both is to get better now and in the future.

 

Seems like a pretty arbitrary statement.

 

He obviously wasn't interested in making the 2023 team better with those moves.

 

It was totally marginal stuff. But both moves had potential future benefits as it turned out.

Edited April 23, 2024 by Bellhorn04

[mvp 78]

I'd really prefer to see you predict something positive and be correct.

 

I was predicting back to back to back to back... 2019 didn't work out. When the Sox point the bow in the right direction, I'll be a little more positive. The pitching has looked better over the short term. It's still built on arms that haven't had INNINGS. My worry is that we continue to see injuries or that the early success trail off significantly.

[mvp 78]

They must have waved some decent money at Bailey too. Especially considering the Giants were kind of in buy mode this offseason.

 

Weird that the Giants let him go in the first place.

[mvp 78]

You were right, because of what was done, or wasn’t done, but if things were done differently the results could have turned out different, but there is no way to know that now.

 

Just put the period after the third word and move on IMO.

[mvp 78]

So?

 

If they WIN on the cheap, I'm fine with it...

 

That's a big IF. Henry is a big fanboy of Billy Beane and he was never able to reach the Promised Land.

[mvp 78]

@ByAndrewParker

Source: Red Sox lefty Joe Jacques has been claimed by the Arizona Diamondbacks.

[moonslav59]

Taking your opinion of Kike out of it, he was dealt for minor league pitching on July 25th. The pitchers might not have been all that exciting, but neither was Kike. Bottom line - he was a late July trade for the best available minor league talent. That's a sell to me...

 

Okay, technically, yes, but that's not what I call "selling." IMO, he was near DFA level. Not really a big sale.

[notin]

Seems like a pretty arbitrary statement.

 

He obviously wasn't interested in making the 2023 team better with those moves.

 

It was totally marginal stuff. But both moves had potential future benefits as it turned out.

 

He was thnking of making 2022 better with Hosmer and 2023 better with Urias. Problem was, neither could pitch...

[notin]

@ByAndrewParker

Source: Red Sox lefty Joe Jacques has been claimed by the Arizona Diamondbacks.

 

Thank God...

[dgalehouse]

There is no such thing as a shocking upset in a single baseball game or a short series. The sport simply contains more variables , randomness, dice roll and just plain luck than most sports. You will never see big betting odds on a major league baseball game or a short series. While the better team will win more often than not, the playoffs are clearly a crapshoot. More so than ever with the expanded format.

[Bellhorn04]

There is no such thing as a shocking upset in a single baseball game or a short series. The sport simply contains more variables , randomness, dice roll and just plain luck than most sports. You will never see big betting odds on a major league baseball game or a short series. While the better team will win more often than not, the playoffs are clearly a crapshoot. More so than ever with the expanded format.

 

Agreed on all points.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

There is no such thing as a shocking upset in a single baseball game or a short series. The sport simply contains more variables , randomness, dice roll and just plain luck than most sports. You will never see big betting odds on a major league baseball game or a short series. While the better team will win more often than not, the playoffs are clearly a crapshoot. More so than ever with the expanded format.

 

Except, if you ever do see big betting odds... don't be surprised if the fix is in.