A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

Agreed. Out of the big 3, I think Mayer is the one I'd be okay with us trading. I'd rather we kept Antony and Teel.

 

Bleis I'm really excited about, but we need another year to know for sure after his injury.

 

Exactly how I feel, but if we do trade Mayer, now, we may regret it.

 

We better get a good pitcher for him, so if Mayer does do great, at least we got some value for him.

 

Our system has done a pretty good job churning out everyday prospects. If we could just add a really good pitcher to be called up, every 3-4 years, even, we'd be so much better off. One SPer (slotted 1-3) every 3 years, all but guarantees we'd have 2 homegrown pitchers in the rotation, at any given time- even if they all bolt to free agency after 6 years.

[Hitch]

Exactly how I feel, but if we do trade Mayer, now, we may regret it.

 

We better get a good pitcher for him, so if Mayer does do great, at least we got some value for him.

 

Our system has done a pretty good job churning out everyday prospects. If we could just add a really good pitcher to be called up, every 3-4 years, even, we'd be so much better off. One SPer (slotted 1-3) every 3 years, all but guarantees we'd have 2 homegrown pitchers in the rotation, at any given time- even if they all bolt to free agency after 6 years.

 

It's always a lottery with prospects.

 

I remember my first reaction after the Sale trade was - Christ, that's a steep price.

 

Turned out to be a total bargain.

[mvp 78]

I’ll play for $2mill if it helps…

 

How kind. Is this where I offer you an MiLB deal and we meet in the middle with a NRI?

[mvp 78]

Seems about right.

 

Replacing the O from Turner and Duval might be done with O'Neill more PAs from Story and upticks by some kids, but on paper, I'm thinking it's a stretch to call that even.

 

While Paxton and Sale had their issues, they did give us 39 starts and 200 IP, combined. Gio might get 32-33 starts and the 4.40 ERA those two combined for, but I think our rotation is still worse than 2023's.

 

81 seems about right, although I might give a range of 78-81, but maybe some moves will bring that projection up.

 

Turner was good, but he only had 1.2 fWAR last year. I think one of the younger guys can do better than that.

 

Overall, Duvall had a 116 wRC+, but most of the work was done in MAR/APR (93 after he came off IL). Story's wRC+ should be better than last year's 48 or overall team's 68 at SS.

[mvp 78]

It's always a lottery with prospects.

 

I remember my first reaction after the Sale trade was - Christ, that's a steep price.

 

Turned out to be a total bargain.

 

For a true ace pitcher, the price is always worth it.

[moonslav59]

It's always a lottery with prospects.

 

I remember my first reaction after the Sale trade was - Christ, that's a steep price.

 

Turned out to be a total bargain.

 

I remember loving the trade, despite what appeared to be a very steep price.

 

One main reason was the 3 years of team control at a very reasonable and low cost.

 

I think I came up with the Chris Freakin' Sale thing the day of the trade.

 

When a guy like him becomes available with those many years of control, you do what it takes.

[harmony]

That’s because Steamer is projecting Duran as a CF and Raley as a LF. If Duran was projected as a LF, his defensive contributions would improve noticeably…

The positional adjustment would significantly lower Jarren Duran's value:

 

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/positional-adjustment/

[mvp 78]

I remember loving the trade, despite what appeared to be a very steep price.

 

One main reason was the 3 years of team control at a very reasonable and low cost.

 

I think I came up with the Chris Freakin' Sale thing the day of the trade.

 

When a guy like him becomes available with those many years of control, you do what it takes.

 

Sorry moon, but you were working on this as your catch phrase:

 

I think I soiled my pants.

 

You should have stuck with it.

 

I think I made a comment that just doesn't ring true anymore I guess!

 

I'd be happy with just no more last place finishes. We already have 3 WS in the recent past. I just want the Sox to be a playoff contender every year.

[moonslav59]

Turner was good, but he only had 1.2 fWAR last year. I think one of the younger guys can do better than that.

 

Overall, Duvall had a 116 wRC+, but most of the work was done in MAR/APR (93 after he came off IL). Story's wRC+ should be better than last year's 48 or overall team's 68 at SS.

 

Not sure why you used fWAR for the DH and wRC+ for the OF'er, but you still made a good point.

 

We still lost 2 of our best on O and overall:

 

wRC+ (We lost 3 of our top 7 batters with over 150 PAs, counting Dugo.)

129 Casas

124 Devers

120 Duran (362 PAs)

116 Duvall (353 PAs)

114 Turner

109 Yoshida

98 Verdugo

 

fWAR

3.1 Devers

2.4 Duran

2.0 Dugo

1.9 Duvall

1.7 Casas

1.2 Turner

0.6 Yoshida

 

We lost 3 of the top 6 fWAR guys. (bWAR: 3 of top 7, as Wong slotted #4.)

 

I do agree, we can possibly make that up with no more additions than O'Neill and Grissom. Our 2B fWAR and wRC+ was putrid. Just average play from Grissom would go a long way in making up for these losses. I like O'Neill, if he can stay healthy. I like some of our young guys looking to improve, and we don't need all of them to do so. I think Story can gives us some much better O, if he can go 450+ PAs, maybe even 550+.

 

I'm not bummed about the O, and the D should be better, but still not plus.

It's the rotation.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Sorry moon, but you were working on this as your catch phrase:

 

 

 

You should have stuck with it.

 

I think I made a comment that just doesn't ring true anymore I guess!

 

LOL!

 

I said that after the Sale trade?

 

Sounds about how I remember feeling.

[a700hitter]

Realistic View at 2024

 

Not one of you have predicted any of our off season additions.

 

Just tons of BS.

 

Realistic view?

 

SP 1 Bello

SP 2 Giolito

SP 3 Kutter

SP 4 Houck

SP 5 Pivetta

SP 6 Whitlock

Breslow has said that Houck and Whitlock will be stretched in the spring.

There isn’t a single guy in the rotation that I would pay to see pitch. Bello has potential, but I wouldn’t make the trip on the day he pitches.

[mvp 78]

There isn’t a single guy in the rotation that I would pay to see pitch. Bello has potential, but I wouldn’t make the trip on the day he pitches.

 

Not to worry. Crag has revamped the pitching program and their emergency starter in AAA is now Max Castillo!

[notin]

How kind. Is this where I offer you an MiLB deal and we meet in the middle with a NRI?

 

You’ll have to talk to my agent…

[Old Red]

Turner was good, but he only had 1.2 fWAR last year. I think one of the younger guys can do better than that.

 

Overall, Duvall had a 116 wRC+, but most of the work was done in MAR/APR (93 after he came off IL). Story's wRC+ should be better than last year's 48 or overall team's 68 at SS.

 

JT tailed off at the end. I don’t know if his foot problem helped with that, or not, but which one of the young guys are going to get 90+ RBI, and do the other things he did. The Red Sox still haven’t replaced Renfroe’s 90+ RBI. It isn’t that easy. Who knows what Duval would have ended up with either if he hadn’t gotten hurt.

[Dipre]

RBI. The true measure of value and offensive production.

[Old Red]

The thing that counts the most above all the fancy stats you can come up with. Runs on the scoreboard.

[Dipre]

The thing that counts the most above all the fancy stats you can come up with. Runs on the scoreboard.

 

Runs are runs.

[mvp 78]

You’ll have to talk to my agent…

 

I'll see what I can do to sweeten the pot. Let me talk to Mr Henry.

 

@JonHeyman

Update: Hearing now Yankees are front runners for notin.

[mvp 78]

RBI. The true measure of value and offensive production.

 

RsBI

[notin]

RBI. The true measure of value and offensive production.

 

And in no way dependent on other teammates…

[notin]

I'll see what I can do to sweeten the pot. Let me talk to Mr Henry.

 

@JonHeyman

Update: Hearing now Yankees are front runners for notin.

 

My agent put that out there to drive up the offer from the Mets. But I’ve said too much already…

[Old Red]

And in no way dependent on other teammates…

 

Did anyone say it didn’t?? I just pointed out that it isn’t all that easy to replace JT’s, or Renfroe production, and they haven’t

Your guy JBJ certainly didn’t replace Renfroe’s production.

[moonslav59]

BTV accepted this wild ass trade as a major overpay by BOS:

 

3 team deal...

 

T0 BOS:

Luzardo (3 yrs)

Keaton Winn (SP prospect rated higher than Wikelman or Perales)

 

To MIA:

Mayer

Rafaela

Wisenhunt (SP prospect)

Mata

 

To SFG

Yoshida (+$6M or $1.5M per year)

Yorke

 

[mvp 78]

My agent put that out there to drive up the offer from the Mets. But I’ve said too much already…

 

Now you're doomed to get TikTok videos from Frank the Tank.

[mvp 78]

Well, I for one am GLAD Verdugo and his 54 RsBI were traded to the NYY. He sucked! Easy to replace!!!

[moonslav59]

Well, I for one am GLAD Verdugo and his 54 RsBI were traded to the NYY. He sucked! Easy to replace!!!

 

The Butterfly Man was on pace for 90 runs scored per 700 PAs.

[Old Red]

Well, I for one am GLAD Verdugo and his 54 RsBI were traded to the NYY. He sucked! Easy to replace!!!

 

You’re glad. Cora’s glad. Dugy’s glad. The Yankees are glad. A win, win all the way around.

[notin]

Now you're doomed to get TikTok videos from Frank the Tank.

 

Will it help that I don’t have a TikTok account?

[mvp 78]

Will it help that I don’t have a TikTok account?

 

Well I'll be dipped in s***...

[moonslav59]

Well I'll be dipped in s***...

 

Double Choco- doo-doo dipper: I don't either.