A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

Yes. Stop raiding the bullpen for starters. But the only way to do that would be to GO GET SOME STARTERS.

 

Seems so simple.

[jad]

We're getting paid by the FO to post and they don't even know we exist?!?!?!?

 

You should strike!

[notin]

We're getting paid by the FO to post and they don't even know we exist?!?!?!?

 

I get paid in the adoration of my readers.

 

So, yeah, I might as well not exist...

[mvp 78]

I get paid in the adoration of my readers.

 

So, yeah, I might as well not exist...

 

There often is confusion about who the "must read" poster is. I get that.

[mvp 78]

FanGraphs projects Sox to have 8th best LF.

 

Tyler O’Neill is coming off a second straight mediocre season at the plate, but the projections remain convinced he’s a talented hitter, with good on-base skills and impact power. Presumably, the Red Sox were similarly convinced when they dealt for him this winter. If O’Neill meets his projected 113 wRC+, he could be the best right-handed hitter in Boston’s lefty-heavy lineup.

 

As Ceddanne Rafaela continues to make his case to be the Opening Day center fielder, Alex Cora is facing a decision as to how to best divide playing time in the outfield corners. O’Neill can cover all three outfield positions, but he’s a good bet to be Cora’s primary left fielder. That’s where he has most of his big league experience, and it makes more sense for the speedier Jarred Duran to cover the right field expanse at Fenway Park. That doesn’t leave much playing time for Wilyer Abreu, but too much depth is always a good problem to have.

 

A regular outfield alignment of O’Neill, Rafaela, and Duran will make for a strong defensive unit. Even better, it means Masataka Yoshida can make most of his starts at DH. However, on days when Cora wants to prioritize offense, Yoshida can handle left field instead. His glove may be a problem, but his offensive projections look a lot closer to his strong numbers from the first four months of the 2023 season than his terrible fall-off in August and September.

[mvp 78]

FanGraphs projects Sox to have 17th best 2B:

 

This is the ranking I disagree with the most. Grissom has the kind of game that feels tailor-made for Fenway, and I also think that having a consistent position and playing time will help with his defensive shortcomings. He showed plus power in the minors and makes a lot of aerial contact, two skills that will combine to produce a ton of wall-ball doubles and lofted homers. It’s not just a Fenway skill, either; Tropicana Field suits his swing well, though hopefully he’ll get some days off when the Sox visit Baltimore and its left field power trap.

 

I think that the biggest legit question with Grissom is whether he can actually play second, but ZiPS’s defensive forecast thinks he’ll do passably well there, which is good enough for me. Or maybe I’m being a little unfair to our projections, because there’s one more important question: how soon he’ll be healthy. He’s going to miss Opening Day, which is why we have Valdez getting a substantial amount of run. Valdez is a solid utility infielder, but he’s not a first-division starter in the same way that I think Grissom is. The options behind him are break-glass-in-case-of-emergency, nothing more. This is the Grissom show, for better or worse.

[moonslav59]

FanGraphs projects Sox to have 17th best 2B:

 

This is the ranking I disagree with the most. Grissom has the kind of game that feels tailor-made for Fenway, and I also think that having a consistent position and playing time will help with his defensive shortcomings. He showed plus power in the minors and makes a lot of aerial contact, two skills that will combine to produce a ton of wall-ball doubles and lofted homers. It’s not just a Fenway skill, either; Tropicana Field suits his swing well, though hopefully he’ll get some days off when the Sox visit Baltimore and its left field power trap.

 

I think that the biggest legit question with Grissom is whether he can actually play second, but ZiPS’s defensive forecast thinks he’ll do passably well there, which is good enough for me. Or maybe I’m being a little unfair to our projections, because there’s one more important question: how soon he’ll be healthy. He’s going to miss Opening Day, which is why we have Valdez getting a substantial amount of run. Valdez is a solid utility infielder, but he’s not a first-division starter in the same way that I think Grissom is. The options behind him are break-glass-in-case-of-emergency, nothing more. This is the Grissom show, for better or worse.

 

I think Reyes offers a decent 3rd string option.

 

I think Grissom has a ton of upside.

[moonslav59]

MLB.com predicts this opening day line up:

 

Jarren Duran, CF

Rafael Devers, 3B

Trevor Story, SS

Triston Casas, 1B

Masataka Yoshida, DH

Tyler O'Neill, LF

Wilyer Abreu, RF

Enmanuel Valdez, 2B

Connor Wong, C

[harmony]

MLB.com predicts this opening day line up:

 

Jarren Duran, CF

Rafael Devers, 3B

Trevor Story, SS

Triston Casas, 1B

Masataka Yoshida, DH

Tyler O'Neill, LF

Wilyer Abreu, RF

Enmanuel Valdez, 2B

Connor Wong, C

FanGraphs' Roster Resource offers only minor adjustments:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/red-sox

[notin]

There often is confusion about who the "must read" poster is. I get that.

 

I'm fairly certain I don't qualify as "must read." Except among the masochists...

[mvp 78]

I'm fairly certain I don't qualify as "must read." Except among the masochists...

 

Most of us qualify.

[mvp 78]

FanGraphs' Roster Resource offers only minor adjustments:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/red-sox

 

Not sure why FanGraphs keeps putting Duran in RF. I hope we don't see that in the regular season.

[mvp 78]

Roster Resource is also projecting 44 players in AAA.

[moonslav59]

Roster Resource is also projecting 44 players in AAA.

 

What is the AAA roster limit?

 

Soxprospects.com has 28 listed on their projected AAA roster.

[mvp 78]

What is the AAA roster limit?

 

Soxprospects.com has 28 listed on their projected AAA roster.

 

28 is the correct amount.

[mvp 78]

@GlobeChadFinn

NESN has added former Red Sox infielder Deven Marrero as a studio analyst.

[vegasbob]

I think Reyes offers a decent 3rd string option.

 

I think Grissom has a ton of upside.

 

Grissom's upside is currently limited to "get up off the pine and actually play" . Yeah, it's a long season, but he has already cut it short by a month or so. Not a choice now, but I might have considered keeping Sale over a 2Bman who can't perform. And I do know the Sox had no future with Sale , beyond the July deadline, and they do have years of control on Grissom. Jusst frustrated ove th number of recent year pickups who cannot take the field.

[moonslav59]

Grissom's upside is currently limited to "get up off the pine and actually play" . Yeah, it's a long season, but he has already cut it short by a month or so. Not a choice now, but I might have considered keeping Sale over a 2Bman who can't perform. And I do know the Sox had no future with Sale , beyond the July deadline, and they do have years of control on Grissom. Jusst frustrated ove th number of recent year pickups who cannot take the field.

 

I haven't heard he's out all or most of April.

[Bellhorn04]

I haven't heard he's out all or most of April.

 

Yep, Cora projects a late April return.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/red-soxs-vaughn-grissom-could-be-back-by-late-april/

[notin]

Grissom's upside is currently limited to "get up off the pine and actually play" . Yeah, it's a long season, but he has already cut it short by a month or so. Not a choice now, but I might have considered keeping Sale over a 2Bman who can't perform. And I do know the Sox had no future with Sale , beyond the July deadline, and they do have years of control on Grissom. Jusst frustrated ove th number of recent year pickups who cannot take the field.

 

Grissom isn't kicking off his Boston career in a positive way, but it's not like Sale has exactly established himself as an Iron Man over the past 4 years...

[moonslav59]

Grissom isn't kicking off his Boston career in a positive way, but it's not like Sale has exactly established himself as an Iron Man over the past 4 years...

 

I hope this is not a reoccurring thing. I'm not aware of past injury prone issues, but I'm not sure.

[mvp 78]

Yep, Cora projects a late April return.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/red-soxs-vaughn-grissom-could-be-back-by-late-april/

 

He's had no Spring Training. Will probably rehab in AAA for a few weeks.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Love the reports this winter on Grissom's potential, and really want to like him, but still have never seen him play.

 

Ghost acquisitions of the Bloom Era: McHugh, Lucroy, Paxton ('22), Mondesi, Grissom... Fullmer... Hendricks... who else -- Montgomery?

[mvp 78]

Love the reports this winter on Grissom's potential, and really want to like him, but still have never seen him play.

 

Ghost acquisitions of the Bloom Era: McHugh, Lucroy, Paxton ('22), Mondesi, Grissom... Fullmer... Hendricks... who else -- Montgomery?

 

With Grissom, we haven't even played a regular season game yet. At least give him until the ASB before we call him a bust...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

With Grissom, we haven't even played a regular season game yet. At least give him until the ASB before we call him a bust...

 

A bust is like half a statue; he's still an apparition...

 

... though there is video evidence of a sighting at Story's winter clinic.

[Randy Red Sox]

He's had no Spring Training. Will probably rehab in AAA for a few weeks.

 

meanwhile Chris Sale has 17 K's in 11 ST innings

[Bellhorn04]

With Grissom, we haven't even played a regular season game yet. At least give him until the ASB before we call him a bust...

 

Fans sure don't have much patience for injured players.

[Bellhorn04]

meanwhile Chris Sale has 17 K's in 11 ST innings

 

Because of course he does.

[mvp 78]

meanwhile Chris Sale has 17 K's in 11 ST innings

 

Wow!

[mvp 78]

Fans sure don't have much patience for injured players.

 

Or anything for that matter...