A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

Cron out.

 

Joely in.

 

Chase Anderson looks to be the 8th man in the pen. (In my earlier post, I did not realize he had been pitching, this spring, with the Pirates.

 

The 26 looks set:

 

C: Wong & McGuire

1B: Casas, Dalbec

2B: E Valdez, Reyes

3B: Devers (Dalbec)

SS: Story (Reyes)

LF: Duran (O'Neill)

CF: Rafaela (Duran)

RF: O'Neill & Abreu

DH: Yoshida

 

SP: Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Houck, Whitlock

Long RP: Winckowski, Anderson

Set-UP: Bernardino, Slaten, Campbell

Closer/8th: Jansen & Martin

 

Minor League Depth on the 40:

C: Heineman

MI: DHam

OF: R Gonzalez

P: Criswell, Weissert, Kelly, Walter, Jacques

(Wikelman & Perales)

 

60 IL: Giolito

10 IL: Murphy (to 60?), Grissom, Refsnyder

 

Edited March 25, 2024 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I agree with the outlook of one poster who said the '24 Red Sox may have a worse record than last year, but be more fun to watch.

 

If anything else, the defense is better at SS and CF, and the starting rotation -- as unproven and thin as it is -- is relying on no old broken down pitchers.

 

I'm not sold on the offense exceeding the output of '23, after losing its most consistent hitter and another longball threat who was more streaky, but capable of carrying the club for a few weeks. It's easy to say you expect better seasons from half the batting order, but that's a stretch without significant established additions in the line-up to work pitchers into making more mistakes.

 

What may be hard for fans to accept is that Casas, Ceddanne, Bello and even Grissom might be as good as it gets for the near future. All of them could be better than the prospects the front office is touting behind them -- who just might be overrated by an organization trying to justify not spending to recruit top MLB talent.

[mvp 78]

Some thought Pivetta was a dumpster dive.

 

We've had some success with dives in recent years:

Schreiber, Bernardino, Wacha, Strahm, Hill, Wink, Whitlock

Renfroe, Duvall, McGuire, Refsnyder

 

The list of failures is pages long.

 

Whitlock was a dumpster dive?

[mvp 78]

I agree with the outlook of one poster who said the '24 Red Sox may have a worse record than last year, but be more fun to watch.

 

If anything else, the defense is better at SS and CF, and the starting rotation -- as unproven and thin as it is -- is relying on no old broken down pitchers.

 

I'm not sold on the offense exceeding the output of '23, after losing its most consistent hitter and another longball threat who was more streaky, but capable of carrying the club for a few weeks. It's easy to say you expect better seasons from half the batting order, but that's a stretch without significant established additions in the line-up to work pitchers into making more mistakes.

 

What may be hard for fans to accept is that Casas, Ceddanne, Bello and even Grissom might be as good as it gets for the near future. All of them could be better than the prospects the front office is touting behind them -- who just might be overrated by an organization trying to justify not spending to recruit top MLB talent.

 

They'll be fun to watch until the starting pitching breaks down. Then it'll depend on how well the guys that fill in are (Criswell, Andersen, Walter, et al).

 

I'm interested to see if Casas can mash from day one. Ceddanne should be fun to watch even if he struggles with the bat. We'll see how Grissom develops. I think the boo birds will come out for him early, which will be unfair. Story had a big ST and if he comes out swinging, it'll really turn the offense around.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

They'll be fun to watch until the starting pitching breaks down. Then it'll depend on how well the guys that fill in are (Criswell, Andersen, Walter, et al).

 

I'm interested to see if Casas can mash from day one. Ceddanne should be fun to watch even if he struggles with the bat. We'll see how Grissom develops. I think the boo birds will come out for him early, which will be unfair. Story had a big ST and if he comes out swinging, it'll really turn the offense around.

 

By default they have to bat Story third in Turner's old spot because the Bloom-built lineup is so lefty-heavy. He won't replace Turner's relentless, two-strike go-to-right-and-move-the-runner approach -- but maybe supply more XBH jolts and obviously more speed on the bases.

 

Ceddanne's OBP may really be a key, because then Cora can deploy his quick three -- Story, Rafaela and Duran -- in an all-out assault on pizza boxes. If only each can maintain a 1-for-3 OBP - which Story did in the NL, Rafaela did in the minors, and Duran did last year (actually .346)... But a good hit-and-run batter might really come in handy with this offense.

[mvp 78]

By default they have to bat Story third in Turner's old spot because the Bloom-built lineup is so lefty-heavy. He won't replace Turner's relentless, two-strike go-to-right-and-move-the-runner approach -- but maybe supply more XBH jolts and obviously more speed on the bases.

 

Ceddanne's OBP may really be a key, because then Cora can deploy his quick three -- Story, Rafaela and Duran -- in an all-out assault on pizza boxes. If only each can maintain a 1-for-3 OBP - which Story did in the NL, Rafaela did in the minors, and Duran did last year (actually .346)... But a good hit-and-run batter might really come in handy with this offense.

 

Ceddanne's not really one to take a walk (5% BB rate AAA), so we'll have to see what he'll do this year. I'm not sold that he can hit higher than 7th this year.

 

Casas doesn't have a bad split vs LHP, so I wouldn't be opposed to having him hit next to Raffy in the order.

[Old Red]

They'll be fun to watch until the starting pitching breaks down. Then it'll depend on how well the guys that fill in are (Criswell, Andersen, Walter, et al).

 

I'm interested to see if Casas can mash from day one. Ceddanne should be fun to watch even if he struggles with the bat. We'll see how Grissom develops. I think the boo birds will come out for him early, which will be unfair. Story had a big ST and if he comes out swinging, it'll really turn the offense around.

 

It’s always good to watch a good CF track down fly balls in the OF, and someone who can pick ‘em at SS. Also agree on Casas. The starting pitching is another matter, and re-runs of the same show as last year. I’m not in the camp that Brez, and Bailey are going to make these guys better, so we’ll have to wait, and see on that one. I’ve said for the last two years that Houck, and Whit should stay in the pen, but being cheap options for the rotation is where they’ll be again.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Ceddanne's not really one to take a walk (5% BB rate AAA), so we'll have to see what he'll do this year. I'm not sold that he can hit higher than 7th this year.

 

Casas doesn't have a bad split vs LHP, so I wouldn't be opposed to having him hit next to Raffy in the order.

 

His patience at the plate puts him on base more than anyone, so ideally he'd bat right in front of Raffy. But Cora loves Duran at leadoff and we all know there's no way he'll bat three lefties in a row...

 

.... maybe Yoshida's translator can tell Cora how his WBC team batted five lefties in a row and won the world!

[mvp 78]

It’s always good to watch a good CF track down fly balls in the OF, and someone who can pick ‘em at SS. Also agree on Casas. The starting pitching is another matter, and re-runs of the same show as last year. I’m not in the camp that Brez, and Bailey are going to make these guys better, so we’ll have to wait, and see on that one. I’ve said for the last two years that Houck, and Whit should stay in the pen, but being cheap options for the rotation is where they’ll be again.

 

If Whitlock stays healthy, he has the tools to be a 3rd starter. It just seems unlikely. I think Houck is a 5th starter and we already know what he is.

[moonslav59]

Whitlock was a dumpster dive?

 

If a Rule 5 pick is chosen and fails, they are often called a "dumpster dive."

 

I think some view any player selected off waivers or Rule 5, or signed to a minor league deal is "diving."

[mvp 78]

His patience at the plate puts him on base more than anyone, so ideally he'd bat right in front of Raffy. But Cora loves Duran at leadoff and we all know there's no way he'll bat three lefties in a row...

 

.... maybe Yoshida's translator can tell Cora how his WBC team batted five lefties in a row and won the world!

 

The lineup vs the Braves:

 

Duran

O'Neilll

Raffy

Story

Casas

Rafaela

Yoshida

Reyes

Wong

 

I don't really like this lineup at all. Batting high OBP Yoshida followed by Reyes and Wong doesn't really make sense. Why give O'Neilll more AB's per game than Raffy/Story/Casas? If Grissom gets healthy and can hit, he'd be a good fit for #2 IMO.

[mvp 78]

If a Rule 5 pick is chosen and fails, they are often called a "dumpster dive."

 

I think some view any player selected off waivers or Rule 5, or signed to a minor league deal is "diving."

 

I've never heard of a Rule 5 guy being a dumpster dive.

[moonslav59]

I agree with the outlook of one poster who said the '24 Red Sox may have a worse record than last year, but be more fun to watch.

 

If anything else, the defense is better at SS and CF, and the starting rotation -- as unproven and thin as it is -- is relying on no old broken down pitchers.

 

I'm not sold on the offense exceeding the output of '23, after losing its most consistent hitter and another longball threat who was more streaky, but capable of carrying the club for a few weeks. It's easy to say you expect better seasons from half the batting order, but that's a stretch without significant established additions in the line-up to work pitchers into making more mistakes.

 

What may be hard for fans to accept is that Casas, Ceddanne, Bello and even Grissom might be as good as it gets for the near future. All of them could be better than the prospects the front office is touting behind them -- who just might be overrated by an organization trying to justify not spending to recruit top MLB talent.

 

For the O to be as good, or better than 2023, we need full and healthy seasons from Story, Duran, Casas and McGuire. We should see more action from Rafaela, Abreu & Reyes, which may or may not be an improvement over Kike, Duvall, Arroyo and other. O'Neill has to come close to Verdugo. Grissom, if healthy should be a plus over what we had at 2B, last year on O and D.

 

Yoshida at DH may match Turner, but we then need our OF to match the loss of Yoshida, Duvall and Verdugo in the OF with more of Duran, O'Neill and solid contributions from Rafaela and or Abreu.

 

I like our chances at matching runs scored from 2023.

 

I am certain our D will be better, if relatively healthy.

 

Our pitching staff is loaded with questions but also promise. I'm trying to stay optimistic about our staff, but I can't see everything working out plus, all at the same time. I guess one could argue we just need 10-12 out of 15-17 promising pitchers to do well or very well, but even that looks like a stretch.

[moonslav59]

I've never heard of a Rule 5 guy being a dumpster dive.

 

You don't think anyone called Jonathan Arauz a dumpster dive?

 

Maybe, I'm wrong, but that word is throw around very often, here.

[notin]

If a Rule 5 pick is chosen and fails, they are often called a "dumpster dive."

 

I think some view any player selected off waivers or Rule 5, or signed to a minor league deal is "diving."

 

Not true. For example, a player can be selected from the Sox by another team in Rule 5 and it’s catastrophic…

[mvp 78]

You don't think anyone called Jonathan Arauz a dumpster dive?

 

Maybe, I'm wrong, but that word is throw around very often, here.

 

Dumpster dives aren't typically young prospects, even unheralded ones like Arauz. With Rule 5 guys, they are fliers that you grab prior to ST and just send back if it doesn't work out. It's not the same as churning through FA pitchers and finding a guy who is 32, has pitched on 5 teams and will line up to be your 4/5, but will likely get sent to the pen midyear. The endless supply of 29 year old relief arms that are picked up on the waiver wire are also "dumpster dives" unlike the Rule 5 guys.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Not true. For example, a player can be selected from the Sox by another team in Rule 5 and it’s catastrophic…

 

You have to admit one thing we've all been frustrated by the past half decade is Boston's catastrophe of a developmental pitching department.

 

So when several Red Sox minor league pitchers get Rule V drafted by other teams the past two years, it's understandable when fans wonder WTF.

[notin]

You have to admit one thing we've all been frustrated by the past half decade is Boston's catastrophe of a developmental pitching department.

 

So when several Red Sox minor league pitchers get Rule V drafted by other teams the past two years, it's understandable when fans wonder WTF.

 

Even though most of those pitchers flame out? Perhaps so many Sox pitchers get selected because so few Sox pitchers are worth protecting.

 

For all the questions about why the Sox kept Kaleb Ort over Thad Ward last year (many of which were asked by me), at the end of the day, Ort was pretty much equal to Ward on some metrics and slightly better on others. Sure the much younger Ward theoretically has more potential to be better. But he also had much more potential to have his career shortened by a series of arm surgeries…

[moonslav59]

You have to admit one thing we've all been frustrated by the past half decade is Boston's catastrophe of a developmental pitching department.

 

So when several Red Sox minor league pitchers get Rule V drafted by other teams the past two years, it's understandable when fans wonder WTF.

 

It is eye opening that some of our best rookie pitchers over the last decade started in other organisations:

ERod

Whitlock

Winckowski

Maybe Slaten, Sandlin and others to come.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Even though most of those pitchers flame out? Perhaps so many Sox pitchers get selected because so few Sox pitchers are worth protecting.

 

For all the questions about why the Sox kept Kaleb Ort over Thad Ward last year (many of which were asked by me), at the end of the day, Ort was pretty much equal to Ward on some metrics and slightly better on others. Sure the much younger Ward theoretically has more potential to be better. But he also had much more potential to have his career shortened by a series of arm surgeries…

 

Ya, it's prob more a reflection of the desperation for pitching across the game (and the sorry state of elbows). But for a team with such putrid pitching prospects, you'd think it would be worth it to protect as many as possible, instead of blowing a million bucks a shot on future dumpster roulette.

[moonslav59]

Ya, it's prob more a reflection of the desperation for pitching across the game (and the sorry state of elbows). But for a team with such putrid pitching prospects, you'd think it would be worth it to protect as many as possible, instead of blowing a million bucks a shot on future dumpster roulette.

 

The fact is, we’ve done better diving and trading for pitchers than developing our own.

 

Since Lester and Buch…

Houck

Crawford

????

[notin]

The fact is, we’ve done better diving and trading for pitchers than developing our own.

 

Since Lester and Buch…

Houck

Crawford

????

 

The Sox have dealt away a few pitchers, too…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It is eye opening that some of our best rookie pitchers over the last decade started in other organisations:

ERod

Whitlock

Winckowski

Maybe Slaten, Sandlin and others to come.

 

Slaten will make trading veteran relievers possible. Maybe we'll get the next ERod, who was acquired for a veteran big league reliever.

 

Maybe we already have him in Sandlin, who I have high hopes to take a regular turn in the rotation later or sooner.

 

Maybe by then we won't be doomed to cite the good half-seasons of a guy like Pivetta... nothing personal, moon, but when I read that post I thought, This is what they've reduced us to... Btw, Pivetta's career ERA as a starter is pushing 5, same as Giolito's the past two seasons.

[moonslav59]

The Sox have dealt away a few pitchers, too…

 

Kopech now sucks

Springs was not developed

Masterson

???

[notin]

Ya, it's prob more a reflection of the desperation for pitching across the game (and the sorry state of elbows). But for a team with such putrid pitching prospects, you'd think it would be worth it to protect as many as possible, instead of blowing a million bucks a shot on future dumpster roulette.

 

Not following that logic.

 

The Sox pitching prospects are putrid, so the team should protect more of them?

 

I get the idea that you need a good amount of manure to grow a rose. But at some point, you also need a rose bulb…

[notin]

Kopech now sucks

Springs was not developed

Masterson

???

 

Montas.

[moonslav59]

Slaten will make trading veteran relievers possible. Maybe we'll get the next ERod, who was acquired for a veteran big league reliever.

 

Maybe we already have him in Sandlin, who I have high hopes to take a regular turn in the rotation later or sooner.

 

Maybe by then we won't be doomed to cite the good half-seasons of a guy like Pivetta... nothing personal, moon, but when I read that post I thought, This is what they've reduced us to... Btw, Pivetta's career ERA as a starter is pushing 5, same as Giolito's the past two seasons.

 

Not taken personally.

 

I think I have been higher on Pivetta than most, and he’s actually been pretty good for 2/3 of a season, a couple times in 3 years- half in the other. I offered up those numbers as something that might offer some promise or optimism, but I fully realize the chances are not good that he has a good full season. He did add some pizazz to his pitch selection over the final 4 months of 2023, so maybe the chance are better than even I give him.

 

No doubt, our hopes rely way too much on 5 SPers who have never shown they can go 32 starts of even #2-3 slot effectiveness. That is an awful plan and situation to put your fan base in to start a season.

 

While all 5 do show promise and have proven they can pitch very well for long stretches, it’s hard to be optimistic about even 3-4 putting it all together in the same season. We need 4-5 to do it.

[moonslav59]

Montas.

 

Yes. I forgot the PED guy.

 

Both lists are pretty bad for a ten year window.

 

The list of acquired pitching prospects is as good, if not better.

 

The list of acquired vets is littered with failures, too, but has enough gems to bring us some intermittent joy:

Wacha

Nate

Porcello

Sale

Price

More than a decade ago: Beckett, Schilling and Pedro

[moonslav59]

3 lists of the best 4:

 

Sox developed:

Houck, Bello, Crawford, Montas

 

Other team developed:

ERod, Whitlock, Winckowski, Slaten

 

Traded for vets:

Nate, Sale, Porcello, Price

[mvp 78]

You have to admit one thing we've all been frustrated by the past half decade is Boston's catastrophe of a developmental pitching department.

 

So when several Red Sox minor league pitchers get Rule V drafted by other teams the past two years, it's understandable when fans wonder WTF.

 

Starting Pitchers Only

2022: Ward, Song

2023: Drohan

 

Ward had a 6.37 ERA (5.98 xFIP) last season out of the pen and will most likely be in AAA all year.

 

Song was returned to the Sox at year end and will maybe reach AA by year end this year, but is only likely to be a reliever going forward. He's not the guy he was back in Lowell.

 

Drohan struggled after reaching AAA last year, had shoulder surgery this spring and there is no timetable for his return. Aside from his 6 really good starts in AA in '23, the rest of his MiLB career hasn't been very impressive.