A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

Without factoring in service time, I like the idea of Duran-Rafaela-O’Neill. Abreu can start in Worcester and shuttle back and forth as needed. Or is the new lingo “Uber back and forth as needed”?

 

Is the service years and extra year of control the same for Rafaela & Abreu?

 

They may try to make sure both get the "extra year," if possible.

[notin]

Has Duran played RF, at all, in ST'ing?

 

I still think it will be...

 

LF: O'Neill (Yoshida when not at DH)

CF: Duran (Abreu when not in RF)

RF: Abreu (O'Neill when Yoshida is in LF)

4th: Refsnyder (when healthy)

 

AAA: Rafaela (at least until he earns the extra year of control)

 

 

That outfield arrangement makes more sense for April.

 

It’s also possible the Sox hold Duran until July 31st and then shop him, ending the year with O’Neill-Rafaela-Abreu…

[notin]

Is the service years and extra year of control the same for Rafaela & Abreu?

 

They may try to make sure both get the "extra year," if possible.

 

I think so, but less important for the older Abreu…

[moonslav59]

I think so, but less important for the older Abreu…

 

Wilyer just turned 24, so another year of control would still be a nice and still within "prime years."

 

They could make sure both get the extra year.

[mvp 78]

I like the idea, but O'Neill, when healthy, should be a very good hitter vs LHPs and RHPs. His career splits are pretty even.

 

.816 v LHPs, which is the short end of a platoon. (maybe he could start v some RHPs)

.765 v RHPs (I'm not sure Abreu projects higher than .765 v RHPs.)

 

In his big 2021 season:

1.025 v LHPs

.888 v RHP

 

I think maybe we sit Rafaela a bit more, so O'Neill & Abreu play more. Maybe sit Duran vs several LHPs, to spread out the PAs more evenly.

 

When healthy:

 

O'Neill: 90% vs RHPs/ 100% v LHPs (RF/LF)

Duran: 100% v RHPs/ 50% v LHPs (CF/LF)

Abreu: 100% v RHPs/ 50% v LHPs (RF/CF)

Rafaela: 10% v RHPs/ 100% v LHPs (CF) Is this enough playing time for Rafaela? If you give him 50+% vs RHPs, and we could sit Abreu?

 

This assume no Yoshida in the OF.

 

 

If they are planning on sitting Rafaela at all, there's no way he starts the season in BOS. I wouldn't have him on the roster unless he's the fulltime CFer.

 

I'm comfortable with Abreu as the 4th OFer.

[mvp 78]

Without factoring in service time, I like the idea of Duran-Rafaela-O’Neill. Abreu can start in Worcester and shuttle back and forth as needed. Or is the new lingo “Uber back and forth as needed”?

 

With Refsnyder on the IL, no need to put Abreu in AAA.

[mvp 78]

I think so, but less important for the older Abreu…

 

Abreu is also a much lesser prospect. With Rafaela, you don't anticipate using options once he's finally called up. With Abreu, you can see him going back and forth between AAA until the options are used up. No reason to fret about every player's control, just the guys with the greater impact.

[Hugh2]

Rafaela only got 282 at bats above AA last year. We've seen the "but he looks so good in spring training" mantra before with guys like JBJ.

 

If he's truly ready, a month in AAA isn't going to stunt his growth, it's not like he still doesn't have things to work on. Getting the extra year of team control is just a plus, and one I wouldn't even consider if the team was confident he was ready and he plugged up a big hole and the team looked prime to compete, but they do not.

 

It makes all the sense in the world to give him a month down in AAA.

[mvp 78]

I didn’t think Duran had ever played RF. Not even in Little League.

 

That’s why I questioned that lineup. That and him platooning with Cron…

 

O'Neilll was initially penciled in as the RFer. He was pushed to DH as he is still slowly recovering from his ankle injury or whatever. It was the only way to keep Masa, O'Neilll, Rafaela and Duran in the same lineup.

[mvp 78]

Rafaela only got 282 at bats above AA last year. We've seen the "but he looks so good in spring training" mantra before with guys like JBJ.

 

If he's truly ready, a month in AAA isn't going to stunt his growth, it's not like he still doesn't have things to work on. Getting the extra year of team control is just a plus, and one I wouldn't even consider if the team was confident he was ready and he plugged up a big hole and the team looked prime to compete, but they do not.

 

It makes all the sense in the world to give him a month down in AAA.

 

This isn't going to be a competitive team. Just throw him in AAA and let him mash for now. O'Neilll will get hurt before too long anyway.

[mvp 78]

Wilyer just turned 24, so another year of control would still be a nice and still within "prime years."

 

They could make sure both get the extra year.

 

Just? He'll be 25 this June. He doesn't project as an all star OFer. When he's done with his arb years, he still should be more than affordable. The arb years may be more expensive than the post arb contract.

[moonslav59]

Just? He'll be 25 this June. He doesn't project as an all star OFer. When he's done with his arb years, he still should be more than affordable. The arb years may be more expensive than the post arb contract.

 

It's just nice to have another year of control, if he turns out to be good to very good.

 

If he's not worth the arb money, then we trade, non-tender or DFA him.

[notin]

Abreu is also a much lesser prospect. With Rafaela, you don't anticipate using options once he's finally called up. With Abreu, you can see him going back and forth between AAA until the options are used up. No reason to fret about every player's control, just the guys with the greater impact.

 

And the guys under 24. It’s not worth holding a guy back a year to make sure you control that age 31 season…

[mvp 78]

It's just nice to have another year of control, if he turns out to be good to very good.

 

If he's not worth the arb money, then we trade, non-tender or DFA him.

 

If you are the Oakland A's, Tampa Bay Rays or Pittsburgh Pirates, you care about years of control. If you are the Boston Red Sox, in a big media market with tippy top ticket prices, there is little to no reason to care about years of control for a player who likely projects to be a 4th OFer.

[mvp 78]

I'm not super concerned about Rafaela either. If they just keep him in BOS, it's not a big deal. Michael Taylor just signed for 1/4 at the end of Spring Training. Unless Rafaela learns to hit, he's not going to cost a lot of money.

[mvp 78]

@BOSSportsGordo

Red Sox LHP Chris Murphy is getting an MRI on his elbow, Alex Cora says.

 

The team will know more tomorrow, but obviously a concern.

 

Another one bites the dust...

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

Cora said a platoon will be used at 2B.

 

Reyes/Valdez?

[mvp 78]

“We actually had a conversation with Wink. We’re going to transition him to the bullpen,” said Cora to reporters on Sunday. “He threw the ball well. We’re going to keep him as a multi-inning guy; I don’t envision him as a one-inning guy. It’s very similar to what (Garrett Whitlock) did and Kutter (Crawford). We’ll try to maximize his talent. When he’s out there, we’ll use him for multiple innings. Of course, the game is going to dictate what we do.

 

“Had a conversation with him. Obviously, he was disappointed, which is great. That’s what we were talking about (regarding competition). If everything goes accordingly and he stays healthy and he throws the ball the way he’s supposed to, he should be with us.”

 

It's fine if Winckowski can throw 2 innings out of the pen. He's definitely not a starter though. I'm glad they didn't try to go that route. Now if they could only figure that out with Whitlock..........

[moonslav59]

And the guys under 24. It’s not worth holding a guy back a year to make sure you control that age 31 season…

 

Why not, if we can get by without them on the 26 in 2024 for a month or two?

 

31 is still prime. It also increases their trade value, if they are decent or better.

[moonslav59]

@BOSSportsGordo

Red Sox LHP Chris Murphy is getting an MRI on his elbow, Alex Cora says.

 

The team will know more tomorrow, but obviously a concern.

 

Another one bites the dust...

 

He looked okay, last year and in ST'ing.

[moonslav59]

“We actually had a conversation with Wink. We’re going to transition him to the bullpen,” said Cora to reporters on Sunday. “He threw the ball well. We’re going to keep him as a multi-inning guy; I don’t envision him as a one-inning guy. It’s very similar to what (Garrett Whitlock) did and Kutter (Crawford). We’ll try to maximize his talent. When he’s out there, we’ll use him for multiple innings. Of course, the game is going to dictate what we do.

 

“Had a conversation with him. Obviously, he was disappointed, which is great. That’s what we were talking about (regarding competition). If everything goes accordingly and he stays healthy and he throws the ball the way he’s supposed to, he should be with us.”

 

It's fine if Winckowski can throw 2 innings out of the pen. He's definitely not a starter though. I'm glad they didn't try to go that route. Now if they could only figure that out with Whitlock..........

 

This made sense from day 1. He can probably go 3 IP, here and there, too.

[mvp 78]

Why not, if we can get by without them on the 26 in 2024 for a month or two?

 

31 is still prime. It also increases their trade value, if they are decent or better.

 

You'd have Abreu on the Opening Day roster and then send him down after calling Rafaela up? Use someone else as a backup OFer?

[moonslav59]

You'd have Abreu on the Opening Day roster and then send him down after calling Rafaela up? Use someone else as a backup OFer?

 

That is an option.

 

When Refsnyder returns, they can alternate in AAA, unless one is really impressing us.

 

Yoshida can play LF, too. (Cron, Dalbec, or rest Casas, devers, Story, Grissom or an OF'er at DH, when Yoshi plays LF.)

[notin]

This made sense from day 1. He can probably go 3 IP, here and there, too.

 

Winckowski should never throw 3 IP. Not with how often Cora likes to use him…

[moonslav59]

Winckowski should never throw 3 IP. Not with how often Cora likes to use him…

 

I would assume he'd get a longer break after a 3 IP stint.

 

He did pitch 3 IP 4 times in APR & May, last year. He went into the 3rd IP, at least once.

 

He never pitched 2.1+ IP, after May 26th.

[mvp 78]

Winckowski should never throw 3 IP. Not with how often Cora likes to use him…

 

Considering the age and recent injuries to Martin and Jansen, Winckowski should definitely be held back a bit.

[mvp 78]

Sox are 27th in FanGraphs C Power Rankings.

 

Connor Wong floundered in his first full season in the majors, where his proclivity to whiff and chase kept his OBP below .290. And while his maximum exit velocities sat in premium territory, he clubbed just nine homers in 403 plate appearances, too often hitting the ball on the ground. Wong’s struggles will open up more playing time for backup Reese McGuire, who lacks Wong’s raw strength but makes more contact and is more defensively sure-handed.

 

Roberto Pérez also figures to enter this playing time mix, especially if either Wong or McGuire fails to meet their offensive projections. Pérez, who signed a split contract this winter, is one of the most talented framers in baseball, but has played just 26 games across the past two years due to injuries, including a surgery to his throwing shoulder that ended his 2023 season just a week in. We have him projected as an emergency call-up, but he could play his way into a much larger role.

 

FanGraphs grades Pérez out better than Wong or McGuire per PA due to his defense. FanGraphs does not like Wong's defense even though he has a cannon for an arm.

[moonslav59]

Sox are 27th in FanGraphs C Power Rankings.

 

Connor Wong floundered in his first full season in the majors, where his proclivity to whiff and chase kept his OBP below .290. And while his maximum exit velocities sat in premium territory, he clubbed just nine homers in 403 plate appearances, too often hitting the ball on the ground. Wong’s struggles will open up more playing time for backup Reese McGuire, who lacks Wong’s raw strength but makes more contact and is more defensively sure-handed.

 

Roberto Pérez also figures to enter this playing time mix, especially if either Wong or McGuire fails to meet their offensive projections. Pérez, who signed a split contract this winter, is one of the most talented framers in baseball, but has played just 26 games across the past two years due to injuries, including a surgery to his throwing shoulder that ended his 2023 season just a week in. We have him projected as an emergency call-up, but he could play his way into a much larger role.

 

FanGraphs grades Pérez out better than Wong or McGuire per PA due to his defense. FanGraphs does not like Wong's defense even though he has a cannon for an arm.

 

I'm way off on my assessment of our catchers, compared to them.

[Randy Red Sox]

I'm way off on my assessment of our catchers, compared to them.

 

the C position is another position the Sox pale in comparison to contending teams.

[Randy Red Sox]

Blake Snell to the Giants