A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[mvp 78]

I think he’s a borderline case. He’s certainly not the most egregious omission even as outfielders go. But he also stacks up against a few inductees as well..

 

He only has 1,550 hits because he just didn't have a long career. There are a lot of guys who had a strong 7 seasons like Berger and then fell off. There's a reason those guys don't get inducted into the modern HOF.

[moonslav59]

The best we can expect from our rotation?

 

Here are the best stretches our possible SP'ers have had in recent years:

 

Brayan Bello:

Season: 2023: 4.24 ERA, 4.54 FIP. .777 OPS Against, 1.34 WHIP

20 Game stretch in 2023: 3.18 ERA/ 4.16 FIP, .718 OPSA

 

Lucas Giolito:

Season 2019: 3.41/ 3.43, .645 OPSA, 1.06 WHIP

3 seasons '19-'21: 3.47/ 3.54 and 1.08 WHIP

First 19 starts of 2023: 3.45/ 4.18, and .697 OPSA

 

Nick Pivetta:

Season: 2023: 4.04/ 3.96 and .685 OPSA and 1.12 WHIP (some as RP)

Best SP stretch: last 7 GS of 2023: 2.37/ 2.73 and 543 OPSA

22 GS in 2022: 3.92/.404 (.706 OPSA) and 20 GS in '21: 4.27/4/14 (.699)

 

Kutter Crawford:

Season: 2023 (some as RP): 4.04/ 3.83 and .669 OPSA & 1.11 WHIP

15 game stretch in 2023: 3.73/3.92 and .691 OPSA

 

Tanner Houck:

Seasons: 2021 (some as RP): 3.52/2.58 and .608 OPSA and 1.13 WHIP

2020-2022 as SP (20 GS): 3.22/ 2.85 (Best on Sox w 90+ IP)

11 GS stretch in 2021: 3.51/ 2.87 and .621 OPSA

 

Garrett Whitlock:

He does not have a long record as a SP'er.

8 game stretch as SP'er in 2022: 3.60 ERA/ 3.57 FIP and .687 OPSA

 

We could possibly see a perfect storm, where all these guys put together a long season like some of their best stretches or seasons past, but it is against the odds.

 

There is talent. There are skills. There is some nasty stuff these guys can throw- all of them. The problem is, they have some pretty long stretches of not being good enough to be even a 5th starter.

 

[mvp 78]

Is it better for the organization for the rotation to fail and Henry have to learn that he can't do it this way or for the rotation to succeed and the team make the playoffs?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Is it better for the organization for the rotation to fail and Henry have to learn that he can't do it this way or for the rotation to succeed and the team make the playoffs?

 

What th- haven't you been paying attention?!?!

 

When they're finally good enough to make the playoffs again, that's when they'll start spending on better pitchers!

[oldtimer]

Is it better for the organization for the rotation to fail and Henry have to learn that he can't do it this way or for the rotation to succeed and the team make the playoffs?

 

We headed full throttle into last place. That's where we have been accustomed to land.

[mvp 78]

What th- haven't you been paying attention?!?!

 

When they're finally good enough to make the playoffs again, that's when they'll start spending on better pitchers!

 

One vote for make the playoffs.

[mvp 78]

We headed full throttle into last place. That's where we have been accustomed to land.

 

This team may need a season where they win less than 70 games for Henry to wake up. Being to close to .500 has made him think it was just a trade deadline oopsie.

[moonslav59]

This team may need a season where they win less than 70 games for Henry to wake up. Being to close to .500 has made him think it was just a trade deadline oopsie.

 

Agreed. I also think 2021 bought some time and convinced JH that we can compete without major spending.

[cp176]

Personally I guess since it looks as though nothing of any great significance is going to be done during this off season, I really hope that they will move quickly to promote some of the supposedly can't miss prospects that we have. We all know that in the past our prospects have been on slow bake before getting anything resembling a shot at the big leagues. I'm going to need something to keep my interest level up just a bit. I understand how some here feel that in some instances moving a player up too soon can be a career breaker. I think that I am over that. Give me something to look forward to... - Teel, Anthony, Mayer(when recovered) anybody else that can catch and throw.

[notin]

Personally I guess since it looks as though nothing of any great significance is going to be done during this off season, I really hope that they will move quickly to promote some of the supposedly can't miss prospects that we have. We all know that in the past our prospects have been on slow bake before getting anything resembling a shot at the big leagues. I'm going to need something to keep my interest level up just a bit. I understand how some here feel that in some instances moving a player up too soon can be a career breaker. I think that I am over that. Give me something to look forward to... - Teel, Anthony, Mayer(when recovered) anybody else that can catch and throw.

 

I don’t think it’sa career breaker. I just think the Red Sox (and several other teams) don’t want to see their best young talent reach free agency at age 27…

[Hugh2]

I don’t think it’sa career breaker. I just think the Red Sox (and several other teams) don’t want to see their best young talent reach free agency at age 27…

 

We also often see guys struggle, or maybe not struggle but take a year or two to get going when they’re rushed up to the bigs too quickly.

 

In other words, you might rather have Roman Anthony’s age 27 season than his age 20

[cp176]

We also often see guys struggle, or maybe not struggle but take a year or two to get going when they’re rushed up to the bigs too quickly.

 

In other words, you might rather have Roman Anthony’s age 27 season than his age 20

 

And in the meantime we have quite the team to watch I guess.

[Hugh2]

And in the meantime we have quite the team to watch I guess.

 

Imagine being a general fighting a war. You understand you can’t win every battle, and that’s not the objective.

 

Now imagine losing a battle and saying “well screw it, let’s dump all our ammunition”

 

That would be a very ill advised and strategically disastrous move.

 

I get people want something to see, but to me that shouldn’t mean rushing a kids development.

 

Conversely, if a guy shows he’s ready, I want to give him his shot. I’m rational. He shouldn’t be held back just because the big league club stinks either.

 

These kids should move up when it’s time to move up. Their development should be about their ability to play MLB ball. The big league club performance should have little to no bearing on that timeline.

[notin]

What th- haven't you been paying attention?!?!

 

When they're finally good enough to make the playoffs again, that's when they'll start spending on better pitchers!

 

Haven’t you been paying attention?

 

They’ll spend at any time, just not much. And the rest will come up though their pipeline…

[Bellhorn04]

"There will be a day when we match up again on a high profile free agent deal" - Sam the Sham Kennedy

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Haven’t you been paying attention?

 

They’ll spend at any time, just not much. And the rest will come up though their pipeline…

 

You obviously stopped paying attention after reading my first sentence. Do you really think not spending as much or relying on call-ups will yield better starting pitchers? How's that been working out the past four years? Let's see, we've got Bello from the Dombro days, and Wacha was good for a year (but not good enough to pay to stay)... maybe Pivetta, a good #5 who was better as a bulk reliever... for Bernardino! Our top opener for a few weeks last summer!

 

As a fan, I'm declaring I'm on board with Sam Kennedy, who said last night the Sox' payroll is going to be less this year, and “We’re going to let this build of our team sort of dictate what we do as we move forward."

 

So if the Red Sox are going to wait until they get good again before investing as much into the team -- then I will, too.

[notin]

You obviously stopped paying attention after reading my first sentence. Do you really think not spending as much or relying on call-ups will yield better starting pitchers? How's that been working out the past four years? Let's see, we've got Bello from the Dombro days, and Wacha was good for a year (but not good enough to pay to stay)... maybe Pivetta, a good #5 who was better as a bulk reliever... for Bernardino! Our top opener for a few weeks last summer!

 

As a fan, I'm declaring I'm on board with Sam Kennedy, who said last night the Sox' payroll is going to be less this year, and “We’re going to let this build of our team sort of dictate what we do as we move forward."

 

So if the Red Sox are going to wait until they get good again before investing as much into the team -- then I will, too.

 

 

Oh I never commented on the quality of the pipeline. Just that they’re going to use it more than sparingly.

 

Spending seems like it’s not going to happen, regardless of post-season proximity…

[Nick]

So it's Bello. Giolito. Kutter. Pivetta and likely Houck (based on # of games started by Houck last year)

 

We have a 2nd basemen under team contol for 6 years and a right handed bat in OF.

 

300 pages of wasted discussion

 

 

Any more trade ideas or is it more a fantasy from our usual suspect of highly valued posters?

Edited January 20, 2024 by Nick

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

So it's Bello. Giolito. Kutter. Pivetta and likely Houck (based on # of games started by Houck last year)

 

We have a 2nd basemen under team contol for 6 years and a right handed bat in OF.

 

300 pages of wasted discussion

 

 

Any more trade ideas or is it more a fantasy from our usual suspect of highly valued posters?

 

Think about it: unless a GM is getting a can't-miss top prospect -- which basically only exist on the farms of Baltimore or San Diego -- no one is giving up young pitching. Otherwise, in the current market, that can be a fireable offense.

 

Breslow keeps saying he just wants to trade for someone who has six years of control. I just want a warm pretzel and a draft that doesn't have Citra hops.

[mvp 78]

Personally I guess since it looks as though nothing of any great significance is going to be done during this off season, I really hope that they will move quickly to promote some of the supposedly can't miss prospects that we have. We all know that in the past our prospects have been on slow bake before getting anything resembling a shot at the big leagues. I'm going to need something to keep my interest level up just a bit. I understand how some here feel that in some instances moving a player up too soon can be a career breaker. I think that I am over that. Give me something to look forward to... - Teel, Anthony, Mayer(when recovered) anybody else that can catch and throw.

 

Will probably spend more time watching the POR games than the BOS games in the first half of the season. That’s the only benefit of getting mlb.tv.

[mvp 78]

So it's Bello. Giolito. Kutter. Pivetta and likely Houck (based on # of games started by Houck last year)

 

We have a 2nd basemen under team contol for 6 years and a right handed bat in OF.

 

300 pages of wasted discussion

 

 

Any more trade ideas or is it more a fantasy from our usual suspect of highly valued posters?

 

Dreaming of a good team is all we got.

[mvp 78]

Think about it: unless a GM is getting a can't-miss top prospect -- which basically only exist on the farms of Baltimore or San Diego -- no one is giving up young pitching. Otherwise, in the current market, that can be a fireable offense.

 

Breslow keeps saying he just wants to trade for someone who has six years of control. I just want a warm pretzel and a draft that doesn't have Citra hops.

 

More of a Cascade fan?

[Bellhorn04]

Is it better for the organization for the rotation to fail and Henry have to learn that he can't do it this way or for the rotation to succeed and the team make the playoffs?

 

A good question and an uncomfortable one.

 

What will be will be, but yeah, there's definitely a part of me that won't be distraught if the 2024 season is a bomb.

[mvp 78]

A good question and an uncomfortable one.

 

What will be will be, but yeah, there's definitely a part of me that won't be distraught if the 2024 season is a bomb.

 

It’s the season to root for the farm and s*** on miserly John Henry.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

More of a Cascade fan?

 

Saaz -- grown in a part of the world where medical doctors prescribe pilsner for the kind of acid reflex that keeps repeating on Red Sox fans since the departure of Markus Bestie.

[moonslav59]

"There will be a day when we match up again on a high profile free agent deal" - Sam the Sham Kennedy

 

That day might be 2-3 years away, if ever.

[mvp 78]

That day might be 2-3 years away, if ever.

 

Inshallah

[notin]

Is it better for the organization for the rotation to fail and Henry have to learn that he can't do it this way or for the rotation to succeed and the team make the playoffs?

 

Make the playoffs!

 

Is this even a serious question? It’s one thing to not like the way ownership runs the team when they fail. But if they’re making the postseason (which is a successful season), then what exactly is your gripe? That they aren’t running the team the way you want it run?!

 

Obviously we would prefer not having one postseason appearance in the move of 3 last place seasons, but that wasn’t the question…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That day might be 2-3 years away, if ever.

 

NESN rerun of last night interviews... Sam: "We're committed to stay disciplined... it might be painful... but come see how we're doing in 6 months, 12 months, 18 months, 24 months from now..."

 

... Wait til 2026!!!

[Randy Red Sox]

You obviously stopped paying attention after reading my first sentence. Do you really think not spending as much or relying on call-ups will yield better starting pitchers? How's that been working out the past four years? Let's see, we've got Bello from the Dombro days, and Wacha was good for a year (but not good enough to pay to stay)... maybe Pivetta, a good #5 who was better as a bulk reliever... for Bernardino! Our top opener for a few weeks last summer!

 

As a fan, I'm declaring I'm on board with Sam Kennedy, who said last night the Sox' payroll is going to be less this year, and “We’re going to let this build of our team sort of dictate what we do as we move forward."

 

So if the Red Sox are going to wait until they get good again before investing as much into the team -- then I will, too.

 

how do you propose the Sox get good again without spending?