A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[notin]

Similar to what/who? Duran?

 

I'm not saying ECab won't work out, but why do seem so confident, he will? (Or, are you just so low on Duran?)

 

Similar to Soler, at least offensively. Basically a RHH corner OF/DH bat that they seem to have placed on the radar.

 

I’m not confident on Cabrera as much as I see this team only affording reclamation projects, too prospects, or backend starters. Since top pitching prospects are next to impossible to acquire, that leaves reclaimation projects as best case scenario…

Edited January 13, 2024 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

There’s things too like about Duran and things to question.

 

1. Like his ability to pressure defenses, especially outfield defenses

2. Don’t like his defense anywhere but LF (although he did markedly improve in CF last year).

3. Don’t like his .381 BABIP. So not sustainable…

 

2.4 fWAR in 102 games was solid. Definitely took some life out of the team when he got hurt.

[notin]

I'd prefer we let Soler sign elsewhere and trade Mayer and secondaries for Luzardo or Garrett.

 

Give them the SS they need. Roll the dice with Story and Grissom as our MI'ers for the next 4 years and hope the pitcher we get stays healthy and flourishes.

 

(I'm not against trading Duran, but I do see the chance he can become very special.)

 

 

Mayer and Bleis for Luzardo? BTV says it is fair…

[moonslav59]

There’s things too like about Duran and things to question.

 

1. Like his ability to pressure defenses, especially outfield defenses

2. Don’t like his defense anywhere but LF (although he did markedly improve in CF last year).

3. Don’t like his .381 BABIP. So not sustainable…

 

I'm not a big Duran fan. I've suggested dozens of Duran trades on BTV.

 

I've said I think BTV over values him. I still think he's worth more than a pitcher who walks 6 guys every 9 IP.

 

I agree on LF only, and we already have 3-4 guys who look best in LF or DH.

[notin]

2.4 fWAR in 102 games was solid. Definitely took some life out of the team when he got hurt.

 

I like him more than Soler, at least as an OF. Soler is a pretty dangerous hitter.

 

But I would just assume pass on Soler and maybe spend on a pitcher, even if his name is Clevinger…

[moonslav59]

Mayer and Bleis for Luzardo? BTV says it is fair…

 

I think the value of Bleis will increase, this year, so I don't like the idea of trading at lowest stock price value, but I'd probably do it.

 

I think Luzardo is better than Garrett, and BTV agrees, but I like Garrett's 5 years over Luzardo's 3 years.

 

I love to find a way to trade Duran and Yorke (3 teams) for one of these two. I'd add Wikelman or Perales, if needed to get tem to take Yorke over Bleis.

[moonslav59]

I like him more than Soler, at least as an OF. Soler is a pretty dangerous hitter.

 

But I would just assume pass on Soler and maybe spend on a pitcher, even if his name is Clevinger…

 

With dollars so precious to JH, signing Soler is a nonstarter, to me.

 

Even if we trade Duran, I'd spend on Clevinger or even Paxton, instead.

 

Yoshida can play some LF, as they rotate out the DH slot, some.

 

Refsnyder can play LF vs LHPs.

 

O'Neill or Abreu can play LF, when the other is in RF.

[Hugh2]

I've said it many times; I have to ensure Raffy gets up in the first inning. For modern Red Sox starting rotations, first-strike instant leads are too important to not try for every game.

 

As for Casas, with his keen eye and how he works the count, I can envision some modern manager trying him as a Schwarber-type leadoff batter. Personally, I'd prefer another OBP man in front of him, to optimize Tris' run-producing potential.

 

Going lefty first, Casas is my Choice with this lineup. Devers hits 3rd, gets up in the first. If one of Story/O’Neill can’t get going in camp I’d say that’s more optimal

[moonslav59]

Going lefty first, Casas is my Choice with this lineup. Devers hits 3rd, gets up in the first. If one of Story/O’Neill can’t get going in camp I’d say that’s more optimal

 

The 3 holes is widely viewed as the 4th, 5th or 6th best slot to put one of your best hitters.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The 3 holes is widely viewed as the 4th, 5th or 6th best slot to put one of your best hitters.

 

Depends how you define "widely."

 

If you mean analytics departments and fans who embrace modern metrics, maybe.

 

If you mean baseball strategists from the first one hundred or so years of professional baseball, maybe not quite as wide.

 

Since every batter is unique -- with various individual skills -- variables like On Base Percentage, working the count, hitting behind the runner and making consistent contact all make the label "best" subjective in many ways.

 

The only guaranteed fact is that the first three hitters in the batting order will get at bats in the first inning.

[Randy Red Sox]

Understandable.

 

I like his offensive potential. Especially that all he needs to do is make an outfielder take 3 steps to either side - and it’s a double.

 

But he just didn’t have a position, assuming the Sox ever get a RHH bat that was so high on the radar all those months ago.

 

des the juicer not hIt R?

[moonslav59]

Depends how you define "widely."

 

If you mean analytics departments and fans who embrace modern metrics, maybe.

 

If you mean baseball strategists from the first one hundred or so years of professional baseball, maybe not quite as wide.

 

Since every batter is unique -- with various individual skills -- variables like On Base Percentage, working the count, hitting behind the runner and making consistent contact all make the label "best" subjective in many ways.

 

The only guaranteed fact is that the first three hitters in the batting order will get at bats in the first inning.

 

That's all factored in.

 

(Yes, I should have added the words "modern day" or "metrics.")

[wyo-sox]

I don't ever do off season posts.... Nor did I want to weed through all the pages for hot stove posts.... Just felt like expressing my frustration. I'm really hoping (but not hopeful) Sox add one or two more quality starters. I feel time is running short and Breslow's moves don't seem to have moved the needle toward higher expectations than another last place finish. Getting tough to follow this team. Three last place finishes in a row and it's clear ownership isn't really trying. Regulate these clubs to AAA like England does with their pro soccer teams!!!!

 

Someone tell me why Im over reacting and tell me our path to a winning team. Honestly, my expectations aren't high. I pay with money and time to support a team... If they are competitive, finish anywhere over .500 - I probably had fun following them. Make a run into the playoffs, icing on the cake to me. And ownership can't keep a fan like me happy???

[oldtimer]

I don't ever do off season posts.... Nor did I want to weed through all the pages for hot stove posts.... Just felt like expressing my frustration. I'm really hoping (but not hopeful) Sox add one or two more quality starters. I feel time is running short and Breslow's moves don't seem to have moved the needle toward higher expectations than another last place finish. Getting tough to follow this team. Three last place finishes in a row and it's clear ownership isn't really trying. Regulate these clubs to AAA like England does with their pro soccer teams!!!!

 

Someone tell me why Im over reacting and tell me our path to a winning team. Honestly, my expectations aren't high. I pay with money and time to support a team... If they are competitive, finish anywhere over .500 - I probably had fun following them. Make a run into the playoffs, icing on the cake to me. And ownership can't keep a fan like me happy???

 

Join the vast majority of Red Sox fans who feel frustrated that the statements (going full throttle) and the realities (no significant positive actions) don't line up. It appears that we will need new ownership before we can expect the team to move forward.

[moonslav59]

Join the vast majority of Red Sox fans who feel frustrated that the statements (going full throttle) and the realities (no significant positive actions) don't line up. It appears that we will need new ownership before we can expect the team to move forward.

 

The "full throttle" statement was the dagger in the heart, and it might be the pinnacle of all sham statements made in the last 4-5 years.

 

To me, for this ownership group to get back some of the trust of the fanbase, they need to have a deep dive huddle and come to a consensus on what the plan is and then aligning the messaging with that plan, whether they think the fans will approve or not. The gigi is up on these guys. They simply cannot keep believing the fans are buying their BS. It has to start here.

[FredLynn]

The "full throttle" statement was the dagger in the heart, and it might be the pinnacle of all sham statements made in the last 4-5 years.

 

To me, for this ownership group to get back some of the trust of the fanbase, they need to have a deep dive huddle and come to a consensus on what the plan is and then aligning the messaging with that plan, whether they think the fans will approve or not. The gigi is up on these guys. They simply cannot keep believing the fans are buying their BS. It has to start here.

 

You misunderstood Henry. He meant FULL THROTTLE........................in reverse.

[moonslav59]

We've heard a lot about the "state of pitching on the farm," and I totally agree with the belief that it is in shambles and needs to be a top priority by ownership.

 

Perhaps a change has already begun, but this is te type of thing that takes years to even notice improvement and then a few more to see tangible results.

 

Our winning teams dating back to 2004 were largely made up of SP'ers and closers acquired by trade or free agency. Nothing has come close to the years of Clemens, Hurst and Tudor. The Lester, Buchholz and Masterson stretch seems like an outlier. Not much has changed, in this area.

 

I will say that, as bad as our farm looks, right now, for pitching, we do have a nicer core of young pitchers on the MLB staff that are homegrown or who came to the system as prospects. It might be the best core in a decade or more.

 

24 Bello, Mata

25 Winckowski, Murphy

26 Slaten

27 Crawford, Houck, Whitlock, Walter

28 Kelly

 

Plus some added as non prospects:

24 Max Castillo

26 I Campbell,

28 Schreiber, Weissert

30 Pivetta

 

We've had better pitchers than the 5 I highlighted, but when was the last time we had 5 that were all as good as these 5?

 

Now, 5 is not nearly enough, but it is better than we had before

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

"If everything goes right" is an overused cliche that became a mantra for the Bloom Era Red Sox. So far, nothing has changed.

 

But I just can't digest the Giolito contract, which seems disrespectful to fans of a team devoted to a true rebuild. Are we recruiting core players for a better future, or just trying to survive the present.

 

Do we root for him to return to a Cy Young candidate and catapult us into fourth place... only to see him opt out and sign elsewhere for big bucks a year from now?

 

Better yet: if everything goes right for a fourth-place finish, Bello wins the Cy, Pivetta is Bulk Guy on the All-Star team, and Giolito doesn't suck. Instead, he eats innings to give the bullpen a break... but mediocre enough not to opt out.

 

Then we can bring all three back in '26 to shoot for third.

[moonslav59]

But I just can't digest the Giolito contract, which seems disrespectful to fans of a team devoted to a true rebuild. Are we recruiting core players for a better future, or just trying to survive the present.

 

It's like a slight improvement on Kluber, Wacha/Hill, Richards and Martin Perez- like it's by enough to fool us, again.

 

NOT!

[moonslav59]

You misunderstood Henry. He meant FULL THROTTLE........................in reverse.

 

Or, in neutral, which is not good for the car's engine.

[moonslav59]

Back to the age thing. I'm not bragging on the "foundation" like it is stacked with studs or promising studs, but when you look back at the rosters of 2020 and even 2021, the lack of young and promising players was pretty noticeable.

 

When I am talking about foundation, here, I'm not talking foundations of core studs like Betts, Bogey, JBJ and Devers. I'm talking about depth of a roster of decent players, role players and organizational depth that can support a winning team, if a few holes are plugged with stars- perhaps added from outside the organization at key moments.

 

It's not the best "foundation" in MLB. It's not good enough to carry a team void of enough stars to be fave for the playoffs, but IMO, it is pretty good, and it's better than we had before.

 

Many of these foundational players have 3+ years of control and are in prime, the beginning of prime or are pre-prime. There is a chance enough improve as they near or go through prime to create a situation where our FO gets off their asses and realizes a couple key additions could get us to some sort of glory, again. (That's not a prediction or projection, or even an expectation, but I do hope that day comes, sooner rather than later.)

 

I laid out the core of younger pitchers- homegrown and otherwise, by age, but here is a look at the whole roster by age:

 

Pitching:

24 Bello 5, Mata 6, M Castillo 5

25 Winckowski 5 & Murphy

26 Slaten & Campbell 5

27 Crawford 5, Houck 4, Whitlock 4 & Walter 6

28 Schreiber 3, Kelly 6 & Weissert 5

(Most with 4-6 years of control)

30 Pivetta (1)

 

Everyday "core"

23 Grissom 5, Rafaela 5

24 Casas 5, Abreu 5

25 E Valdez 5

26

27 Duran 5, Wong

28 Devers 10, McGuire

29

30Yoshida 4,

31 Story 4

 

I left out all the prospects, but there are plenty that could add to this core- just not many pitchers.

[moonslav59]

Back to the age thing. I'm not bragging on the "foundation" like it is stacked with studs or promising studs, but when you look back at the rosters of 2020 and even 2021, the lack of young and promising players was pretty noticeable.

 

When I am talking about foundation, here, I'm not talking foundations of core studs like Betts, Bogey, JBJ and Devers. I'm talking about depth of a roster of decent players, role players and organizational depth that can support a winning team, if a few holes are plugged with stars- perhaps added from outside the organization at key moments.

 

It's not the best "foundation" in MLB. It's not good enough to carry a team void of enough stars to be fave for the playoffs, but IMO, it is pretty good, and it's better than we had before.

 

Many of these foundational players have 3+ years of control and are in prime, the beginning of prime or are pre-prime. There is a chance enough improve as they near or go through prime to create a situation where our FO gets off their asses and realizes a couple key additions could get us to some sort of glory, again. (That's not a prediction or projection, or even an expectation, but I do hope that day comes, sooner rather than later.)

 

I laid out the core of younger pitchers- homegrown and otherwise, by age, but here is a look at the whole roster by age:

 

Pitching:

24 Bello 5, Mata 6, M Castillo 5

25 Winckowski 5 & Murphy

26 Slaten & Campbell 5

27 Crawford 5, Houck 4, Whitlock 4 & Walter 6

28 Schreiber 3, Kelly 6 & Weissert 5

(Most with 4-6 years of control)

30 Pivetta (1)

 

Everyday "core"

23 Grissom 5, Rafaela 5

24 Casas 5, Abreu 5

25 E Valdez 5

26

27 Duran 5, Wong

28 Devers 10, McGuire

29

30Yoshida 4,

31 Story 4

 

I left out all the prospects, but there are plenty that could add to this core- just not many pitchers.

 

Certainly, some of the players that look good or promising, now, may not be doing well in 2-3 years.

 

Certainly, some of the prospects that look promising or very promising, now, will not come through, as hoped.

 

What encourages me is that we have someone (or two to three) at nearly every key position, except the rotation.

 

2025-2026:

SP1 _____

SP2 _____

SP3 Bello

SP4 Crawford

SP5 Houck (Fitts, Wikelman, Perales, Gambrell)

 

RP1 Whitlock

RP2 Winckowski

RP3 Schreiber

RP4 Fitts/Wikelman/Perales/Mata

RP5 Bernardino

RP6 Campbell

RP7-8 Weissert/Slaten/Guerrero/Kelly/Murphy/Walter

Monegro/Benitez/Oliveras

 

C Wong, Teel (Hickey)

1B Casas (Jordan, Kavadas

2B Grissom/Story (Yorke)

SS Story/Mayer (DHam, Romero)

3B Devers (Meidroth)

LF Duran, Refsnyder (Rosier)

CF Rafaela/Anthony

RF Abreu (Castro)

DH Yoshida/ EValdez

 

 

 

[Larry Cook]

Certainly, some of the players that look good or promising, now, may not be doing well in 2-3 years.

 

Certainly, some of the prospects that look promising or very promising, now, will not come through, as hoped.

 

What encourages me is that we have someone (or two to three) at nearly every key position, except the rotation.

 

2025-2026:

SP1 _____

SP2 _____

SP3 Bello

SP4 Crawford

SP5 Houck (Fitts, Wikelman, Perales, Gambrell)

 

RP1 Whitlock

RP2 Winckowski

RP3 Schreiber

RP4 Fitts/Wikelman/Perales/Mata

RP5 Bernardino

RP6 Campbell

RP7-8 Weissert/Slaten/Guerrero/Kelly/Murphy/Walter

Monegro/Benitez/Oliveras

 

C Wong, Teel (Hickey)

1B Casas (Jordan, Kavadas

2B Grissom/Story (Yorke)

SS Story/Mayer (DHam, Romero)

3B Devers (Meidroth)

LF Duran, Refsnyder (Rosier)

CF Rafaela/Anthony

RF Abreu (Castro)

DH Yoshida/ EValdez

 

 

 

 

I doubt we have the financial juice to sign any high priced free agent starters, so that leaves the trade market.

 

And we have to give value to get value. Are we prepared to move be or more of Mayer, Anthony, blies, or teel???

[moonslav59]

I doubt we have the financial juice to sign any high priced free agent starters, so that leaves the trade market.

 

And we have to give value to get value. Are we prepared to move be or more of Mayer, Anthony, blies, or teel???

 

We may have to do so.

[mvp 78]

I doubt we have the financial juice to sign any high priced free agent starters, so that leaves the trade market.

 

And we have to give value to get value. Are we prepared to move be or more of Mayer, Anthony, blies, or teel???

 

The word is no, no, maybe and no.

[Hugh2]

blies? b lies, B lies, BOSTON LIES! SAM KENNEDY IS A LIAR!!!

[moonslav59]

Let's assume minimal additions like Paxton & Duvall. This could be the opening day roster for 2024:

 

1. L Duran CF/ R Grisson 2B

2. L Devers 3B

3. R O'Neill LF

4. L Casas 1B

5. R Duvall RF

6. L Yoshida DH

7. R Story SS

8. R Grissom 2B/ L Duran CF

9. LR Wong C/ L McGuire C

Bench: Reyes, Refsnyder, Wong/McGuire, Abreu/Rafaela, EValdez/Dalbec

 

SP1 Bello

SP2 Giolito

SP3 Paxton

SP4 Pivetta

SP5 Crawford

SP6 Houck (RP)

 

RP1 Jansen

RP2 Martin

RP3 Winckowski

RP4 Schreiber

RP5 Whitlock

RP6 Slaten or Mata

AAA Bernardino, Campbell, Criswell, Weissert, Kelly, Murphy, Walter, Castillo, Fitts, Gambrell, Guerrero

 

[mvp 78]

Teams carry 13 pitchers now.

[moonslav59]

Teams carry 13 pitchers now.

 

Yes, I meant to make the last line RP7/AAA.

[Hugh2]

Yes, I meant to make the last line RP7/AAA.

 

Why does it have to be Slaten or Mata? I get what you did there, but what if they both look really really really good in camp.

 

Shouldn't we be more optimistic? I mean, what is it that has happened in the past several years that could possibly have a Red Sox fan not feeling optimistic?