A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

Some of those pre-MLB extensions do backfire. I’m looking at you, Scott Kingery…

 

At least they are usually not $15-25M a year/

[moonslav59]

A look at the 2024 Red Sox pen:

 

I'll leave the talk of Pivetta, Houck and Crawford as possible relief pitchers and assume Whitlock and the "stretched out" Winckowski and Criswell will likely start off in the pen.

 

I'll leave out talk of trading Jansen or adding pen pieces. Here is what we appear to have, right now:

 

Closer: Jansen saw his numbers slip some at age 35, and now he's a year older. I still think he is a plus closer, and should help us hold down games handed over to him.

 

Top Set-up (back up Closer:) Martin will turn 38 in April, but has not shown any signs of decline. In fact, his last two seasons are among his best back-to-back seasons in his career, if not the best. The 51 IP was his 3rd highest of his career. I'm hopeful he can hold off age decline for one more season.

 

RP3: I have Winckowski here, but soxprospects.com has him as the #1 SP for AAA to start 2024. Wink was one of our best RP'ers in 2024, despite having a 3.3 BB/9 and a WHIP of 1.42 and an FIP of 3.91. I hope we keep him in the pen.

 

RP4: Whitlock was one of the best RP'ers in MLB in 2021 (1.96 ERA/2,84 FIP and 1.105 WHIP) Many feel they messed him up by starting him, and it looks like he will be in the pen to start 2024. Let's hope he can return to close to what he was in '21.

 

RP5: Schreiber looked pretty good in 2022 and battled some injuries in '23. Maybe he can get back to his '22 level.

 

RP6: Bernardino might be just a flash in the pan, as many RP'ers are, but he looks like he has some real promise.

 

RP7: Slaten is supposed to be a very promising pitcher. Only time will tell.

 

RP8: Mata is out of options, so will be given a look before a decision is made to trade or DFA him, if he is struggling. This kid had some high hopes, several years ago, before all the injuries and rehabs. He might surprise us all.

 

Depth:

Campbell should get plenty of chances to earn a slot on the 26. He is likely better than 2-3 listed on the MLB staff.

Criswell is probably a crap shoot. I'm not counting on much, but RP'ers are often a dice roll away from being useful or not.

Murphy surprised a bit in 2023. He could win the lefty role.

Weissert turns 29, soon and has some ML experience with a 4.29 FIP and 1.28 WHIP.

Kelly showed some promise before getting hurt for 2023. Maybe he can get that back.

Guerrero could be a surprise, this year.

AAA SP'ers (Castillo, Walter, Fitts, Gambrell) This group may see some time in the pen in 2024 with the big club. I like Fitts quite a bit.

Extended depth (Weiss, Jacques, Benitez, Olivares, Hagenman, Politi, Booser, Hoppe & Troye) Let's hope we don't need to go this deep, but there is hope 1 or 2 might rise up and get a look-see.

 

All-in-all, our pen looks about average. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I feel it could be top 10, if 2 out of the 3 I listed above, Houck, Crawford & Pivetta, can spend more time in the pen than the rotation, or stop being jerked back and forth and just stay in the pen, all year.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Top FA SP'ers remaining, as ranked by MLBTR:

 

4. Snell

6. Montgomery

30. Clevinger

34. Lorenzen

47. Junis

Non top 50

Ryu

Wood

Lauer

Kershaw

(Not listed: Bauer & Urias)

 

Edited January 24, 2024 by moonslav59

[harmony]

Top FA SP'ers remaining, as ranked by MLBTR:

 

4. Snell

6. Montgomery

30. Clevinger

34. Lorenzen

47. Junis

Non top 50

Ryu

Wood

Lauer

Kershaw

(Not listed: Bauer & Urias)

 

Alex Wood would give the Red Sox a lefty candidate for the starting rotation:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/alex-wood/13781/stats?position=P

[moonslav59]

Alex Wood would give the Red Sox a lefty candidate for the starting rotation:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/alex-wood/13781/stats?position=P

 

He's had more good years than bad (by over 2 to 1,) but last year was not good.

 

Seems like just the guy for us.

[notin]

Alex Wood would give the Red Sox a lefty candidate for the starting rotation:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/alex-wood/13781/stats?position=P

 

So would Eric Lauer. And it seems like Lauer would be the more likely guy to salvage…

[moonslav59]

So would Eric Lauer. And it seems like Lauer would be the more likely guy to salvage…

 

Both he and Wood look like perfect Sox signings.

 

Maybe sign 'em both!

[Larry Cook]

Top FA SP'ers remaining, as ranked by MLBTR:

 

4. Snell

6. Montgomery

30. Clevinger

34. Lorenzen

47. Junis

Non top 50

Ryu

Wood

Lauer

Kershaw

(Not listed: Bauer & Urias)

 

 

I hope we get clevinger! But I also want ryu, if his meficals check out. I think he is primed for a bounce back year

[moonslav59]

I hope we get clevinger! But I also want ryu, if his meficals check out. I think he is primed for a bounce back year

 

He'll be 37 in a couple months and hasn't has a good, full season since 2019.

[notin]

He'll be 37 in a couple months and hasn't has a good, full season since 2019.

 

His 2021 was acceptable, but he’s only pitched 79 IP since. At that point, I’d just assume sign Greinke…

[Bellhorn04]

We're really talking about the dregs here.

[Bellhorn04]

If they're not going to sign Montgomery or Snell, might as well just go with what we've got and the Andrew Bailey Magic Show...

[mvp 78]

If they're not going to sign Montgomery or Snell, might as well just go with what we've got and the Andrew Bailey Magic Show...

 

Clevinger, Ryu or nobody IMO.

[mvp 78]

I hope we get clevinger! But I also want ryu, if his meficals check out. I think he is primed for a bounce back year

 

Yeah, Ryu has missed a ton of time, but seems to be effective when he takes the mound. He was left off TOR's postseason roster last year for whatever reason.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We're really talking about the dregs here.

 

But Tom Werner said they "have some tickets that are very affordable for students."

 

By students, marketing must mean people presumably smart enough not to pay full price to watch the 2024 Dregsox.

[Bellhorn04]

But Tom Werner said they "have some tickets that are very affordable for students."

 

Yep, another classic line from Tom. There should have been a laugh track with that one.

[mvp 78]

Yep, another classic line from Tom. There should have been a laugh track with that one.

 

Last year's defense definitely needed a laugh track. Maybe even the Whammy from Press Your Luck...

[Hugh2]

What is highly frustrating is seeing how much poor defense hurt last years team and improving the defense this year will largely revolve around relatively unproven talent, bounce back seasons, and better health.

[mvp 78]

What is highly frustrating is seeing how much poor defense hurt last years team and improving the defense this year will largely revolve around relatively unproven talent, bounce back seasons, and better health.

 

The difference is there's a new IF coordinator, Story is a very good SS, Kiké won't be at SS, Rafaela/Abreu/O'Neilll are solid OFers that weren't on last year's opening day squad. Guys around the Braves (Ron Washington, Chipper Jones) have said that Grissom was solid at 2b and should be good there given time. It doesn't fix 3B. Maybe 1B is a little better with coaching? The catching is what it is. I think there is hope that the defense is better than what it was the first half of last season.

[moonslav59]

What is highly frustrating is seeing how much poor defense hurt last years team and improving the defense this year will largely revolve around relatively unproven talent, bounce back seasons, and better health.

 

While I agree, I can't see us not improving at 2B, even if Reyes has to take over.

 

Story's health is pretty much a must do for us to have any chance.

 

Yoshida at DH, more often has to be a plus to our OF D. To me, the more we see Rafaela and maybe Abreu in CF, instead of Duran the better our OF D will be.

 

Corner IF and C relies on better seasons from returnees.

[moonslav59]

The difference is there's a new IF coordinator, Story is a very good SS, Kiké won't be at SS, Rafaela/Abreu/O'Neilll are solid OFers that weren't on last year's opening day squad. Guys around the Braves (Ron Washington, Chipper Jones) have said that Grissom was solid at 2b and should be good there given time. It doesn't fix 3B. Maybe 1B is a little better with coaching? The catching is what it is. I think there is hope that the defense is better than what it was the first half of last season.

 

I do think most catchers are at their best, defensively, after age 28-29- some even post 30.

 

I have some hopes, we see a step up at C and 1B.

 

3B is a dice roll on D.

[mvp 78]

While I agree, I can't see us not improving at 2B, even if Reyes has to take over.

 

Story's health is pretty much a must do for us to have any chance.

 

Yoshida at DH, more often has to be a plus to our OF D. To me, the more we see Rafaela and maybe Abreu in CF, instead of Duran the better our OF D will be.

 

Corner IF and C relies on better seasons from returnees.

 

Crag has brought in a bunch of depth at C this offseason. Not really MLB level depth, but at least he's focused on those transactions. It'll be interesting to see how he evaluates Wong this season and if that affects Teel's timeline at all.

[mvp 78]

I do think most catchers are at their best, defensively, after age 28-29- some even post 30.

 

I have some hopes, we see a step up at C and 1B.

 

3B is a dice roll on D.

 

Raffy's defense was good enough in '19 and '22. It's not out of the realm of possibility that he can get back there. He just needs better guidance IMO.

[moonslav59]

Raffy's defense was good enough in '19 and '22. It's not out of the realm of possibility that he can get back there. He just needs better guidance IMO.

 

Dice Roll, as of now.

[Hugh2]

The difference is there's a new IF coordinator, Story is a very good SS, Kiké won't be at SS, Rafaela/Abreu/O'Neilll are solid OFers that weren't on last year's opening day squad. Guys around the Braves (Ron Washington, Chipper Jones) have said that Grissom was solid at 2b and should be good there given time. It doesn't fix 3B. Maybe 1B is a little better with coaching? The catching is what it is. I think there is hope that the defense is better than what it was the first half of last season.

 

I'm actually rather optimistic on the defense improving in 2024, I just won't be completely surprised if it's over subpar again. They should certainly have more depth options with guys like Rafaela being more ready and able to fill in at CF/SS

[moonslav59]

I'm actually rather optimistic on the defense improving in 2024, I just won't be completely surprised if it's over subpar again. They should certainly have more depth options with guys like Rafaela being more ready and able to fill in at CF/SS

 

I'm thinking we might end up between 14th and 19th.

 

Last year, we were near worst, if not THE worst.

[Duran Is The Man]

I'm thinking we might end up between 14th and 19th.

 

Last year, we were near worst, if not THE worst.

 

the D might be better in 24 but what does it matter if the FO has no desire to upgrade the rotation? it's just last place with a better defense. whoopeee.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Tom said at Winter Weekend that a guy in the front office told him the defense cost the team 8 to 9 wins last year.

 

That means with better D, the Sox could've won 86 or 87 games -- and did you know an 84-win club went to the World Series last season?

 

So now it's clear why Boston stood pat this winter: the same basic club, with renewed focus on fielding... why spend more? We're IN!

[Hugh2]

Breslow is going to look like a genius when he waits out the market and signs Jordan for $125

[Larry Cook]

Bres-slow will look like a genius if he lasts to the end of his current contract!!!!!