A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[dgalehouse]

The unrest in Red Sox Nation has been growing the past few years. More and more fans are becoming disgruntled by the day. We all know that the Sox had a great team not all that long ago. That team was systematically dismantled until only Devers remains. For the most part, the replacements have not been of the same caliber. The perception, and probably the reality, is that it was done strictly to save the owner money. This despite the Sox franchise being one of the highest valued in the business. Not to mention the ever rising ticket and concession prices. It's fine to talk about building the farm and developing pitching, but a baseball season is long. It is a chunk of our lives . There are a few fans who are intrigued by the whole process and interested in using the Tampa Bay model to try and change the organization. But most fans would like to see a better effort at putting a high quality product on the field. Starting now.

[Dipre]

The unrest in Red Sox Nation has been growing the past few years. More and more fans are becoming disgruntled by the day. We all know that the Sox had a great team not all that long ago. That team was systematically dismantled until only Devers remains. For the most part, the replacements have not been of the same caliber. The perception, and probably the reality, is that it was done strictly to save the owner money. This despite the Sox franchise being one of the highest valued in the business. Not to mention the ever rising ticket and concession prices. It's fine to talk about building the farm and developing pitching, but a baseball season is long. It is a chunk of our lives . There are a few fans who are intrigued by the whole process and interested in using the Tampa Bay model to try and change the organization. But most fans would like to see a better effort at putting a high quality product on the field. Starting now.

 

All they need to do is sign some pitching

[moonslav59]

The unrest in Red Sox Nation has been growing the past few years. More and more fans are becoming disgruntled by the day. We all know that the Sox had a great team not all that long ago. That team was systematically dismantled until only Devers remains. For the most part, the replacements have not been of the same caliber. The perception, and probably the reality, is that it was done strictly to save the owner money. This despite the Sox franchise being one of the highest valued in the business. Not to mention the ever rising ticket and concession prices. It's fine to talk about building the farm and developing pitching, but a baseball season is long. It is a chunk of our lives . There are a few fans who are intrigued by the whole process and interested in using the Tampa Bay model to try and change the organization. But most fans would like to see a better effort at putting a high quality product on the field. Starting now.

 

We certainly have a need for high quality players. In 2020, the 40 man roster and farm were so depleted, it made sense to try and incrementally build up with a quantity of marginal quality players, until we reached a foundation, where we could fill in a few holes with free agent signings or trades.

 

Since the Nate trade in the summer of 2018, we have made precious few trades designed to make us better, right away. Even the ones that were, also involved a prospect thrown in, such as Ottavino with German, Pivetta with Seabold, JBJ w DHam and Binelas.

 

Our FA signings have been the model for quantity over quality. Only Story and Yoshida were meant to be major impactful, and neither has been, so far.

 

The highest need area on the Sox has been glaringly obvious for every season since 2019: Starting Pitchers. Our SP additions tell the whole half-ass story:

2020>

Perez (34 GS- 6th ranked in this time period)

Pivetta (81 GS leads the Sox since 2020: 20 more than Nate)

Richards (22- 11th ranked)

Perez II

Wacha (23- 10th ranked)

Hill (26- 9th ranked)

Paxton (19- 12th ranked)

Kluber (9- 15th ranked)

 

Others:

61 Nate (2nd) bolted as FA

41 Houck (3rd)

39 Bello (4th- in just 2 seasons)

36 Crawford (5th)

31 ERod (31) bolted as FA

19 Whitlock (13th)

15 Winckowski (14th)

7 Mazza, 6 Seabold, 5 Weber, 4 Brewer

 

Best ERA- from 2020-2023 (as SP only):

81 Wacha - bolted as FA

85 Nate -bolted as FA

87 Sale -traded away

93 Houck - may be in pen

99 Paxton - FA, now

99 Bello - still in rotation

101 Perez- gone

103 Pivetta (SP/RP?)

104 Hill- gone

104 ERod- gone

109 Whitlock- (SP/RP?)

114 Richards- gone

116 Crawford- (SP/RP?)

138 Wink (SP/RP?)

 

[moonslav59]

All they need to do is sign some pitching

 

You said it in far less words than I.

 

[jad]

All they need to do is sign some pitching

 

Or maybe get rid of some?

[moonslav59]

Trying to find a way to be optimistic, despite the lack of top quality players on the roster, I do think we look to have a pretty decent foundation or supporting cast to the few top players we have and maybe some we acquire or promote from the minors over the next 1-3 years.

 

Top players

10 yrs Devers

5 yrs Casas

5 yrs Bello

 

Decent players with a chance to be a top contributor

4 yrs Story

1 yr Martin

1 yr Jansen

 

Chance at being a significant plus:

5+ yrs Grissom

5 yrs Winckowski, Duran, Wong

4 yrs Houck, Crawford, Yoshida

3 yrs Whitlock

1-2 yrs Giolito

1 yr Pivetta, O'Neill

 

Maybe decent role players

4 yrs Reyes

3 yrs Schreiber

2 yrs McGuire, Refsnyder

 

Questionable

1 yr Criswell

 

5+ years of control/ pre-ARB

A- Anthony, Mayer, Teel

B- Bleis, Abreu, Rafaela, Cespedes

C- Slaten, Bernardino, Campbell, Yorke, Fitts, Murphy, EValdez, Zanetello

Meidroth, Castro, Jo. Garcia, Hickey, Romero, Monegro, A Anderson, Hoppe

D- Mata, Z Kelly, M Castillo, Wikelman, Perales, Walter, DHam, Weissert

Jordan, Paulino, Dobbins, E R-C, Guerrero, Alcantara, Troye, Arias

F- B Dalbec, Jacques, Weiss

 

In theory, I'd look to make some 2 or 3 for 1 trades that improves on quality over quantity, add some strategic FAs of high quality, and maybe make a trade for two for top players with 3+ years of team control.

[notin]

Or maybe get rid of some?

 

Yeah, why burden yourself with pitching depth?

[moonslav59]

Yeah, why burden yourself with pitching depth?

 

I do think depth is great, but not at the expense of top quality.

 

While I admit, no team will take 2-3 good pitchers for one better one, unless he's a salary dump or injury risk, I'd like to see us try.

 

[notin]

The unrest in Red Sox Nation has been growing the past few years. More and more fans are becoming disgruntled by the day. We all know that the Sox had a great team not all that long ago. That team was systematically dismantled until only Devers remains. For the most part, the replacements have not been of the same caliber. The perception, and probably the reality, is that it was done strictly to save the owner money. This despite the Sox franchise being one of the highest valued in the business. Not to mention the ever rising ticket and concession prices. It's fine to talk about building the farm and developing pitching, but a baseball season is long. It is a chunk of our lives . There are a few fans who are intrigued by the whole process and interested in using the Tampa Bay model to try and change the organization. But most fans would like to see a better effort at putting a high quality product on the field. Starting now.

 

We all want the team to be better, with the exception of one guy, who only wants the team to be more expensive.

 

I don’t care if they do out via some sort of Tampa model or what. I do think going crazy spending on pitching is a double edged sword that can create short term success, but definitely will create a long term detriment to the team. As I’d like them in the running every year, I don’t mind when this gets avoided.

 

I do think this team is already improved, but could use some rotation help. And probably some depth…

[Dipre]

Or maybe get rid of some?

 

The lowest rungs of the BP? Sure

[Dipre]

We all want the team to be better, with the exception of one guy, who only wants the team to be more expensive.

 

I don’t care if they do out via some sort of Tampa model or what. I do think going crazy spending on pitching is a double edged sword that can create short term success, but definitely will create a long term detriment to the team. As I’d like them in the running every year, I don’t mind when this gets avoided.

 

I do think this team is already improved, but could use some rotation help. And probably some depth…

 

Isn't there some crossplay between people who want " Red Sox spend now!", and people who were whining hard about the Chris Sale contract?

[moonslav59]

We all want the team to be better, with the exception of one guy, who only wants the team to be more expensive.

 

I don’t care if they do out via some sort of Tampa model or what. I do think going crazy spending on pitching is a double edged sword that can create short term success, but definitely will create a long term detriment to the team. As I’d like them in the running every year, I don’t mind when this gets avoided.

 

I do think this team is already improved, but could use some rotation help. And probably some depth…

 

I disagree on the depth thing. Only a back-up 1Bman seems like an issue.

 

I don't agree with all of soxprospects 2024 roster projections, and their projected 2 SP'ers till to be added is highly questionable, but this is our "depth:"

 

on 26: McGuire, Reyes, Refsnyder, EValdez

Minors on the 40: (not on 40)

SP: Wink, Max Castillo, Walter, Wikelman (AA), Pereales (A+) (Fitts & Gambrell)

RP: Campbell, Criswell, Murphy, Weissert, Z Kelly (Guerrero, Hagenman, Benitez, Olivares)

(Scott, Teel))

1B: Dalbec

(2B: Yorke)

SS: DHam (Mayer)

CF: Rafaela (Anthony)

RF: Abreu (Rosier)

(DH: Hickey)

[moonslav59]

I do think this team is already improved, but could use some rotation help. And probably some depth…

 

This is relying heavily on players already on the roster to improve and or stay healthy. I happen to agree, we should expect improvement from several returning players, especially fi we can put them in positions where they can be more successful.

 

Story is the big question.

Whitlock and Houck had career worst seasons in 2023, but both have electric stuff, when healthy and used correctly.

While Casas, Duran and Wong could all take a step back in '24, I'm thinking expecting the 3, combined, to improve seems logical.

Crawford and Wink took big steps forward in '23. Can we expect the same? Is it illogical to expect regression?

Bello struggled to end the season. I'm thinking he should improve.

Martin and Jansen can maybe be expected to do the same or slightly worse.

Pivetta, Schreiber, Bernardino, Refsnyder, Reyes, EValdez and others are too hard to project, as are Abreu, Rafaela and other youngsters.

 

Looking at the roster turnover, only, I can't say we look better. We might be, but I can't say, "yes."

 

O'Neill (more from Abreu, Rafaela & Duran) for Dugo & Duvall (Maybe)

Giolito for Paxton, Sale & Kluber (Maybe/possibly Yes)

Grissom for Arroyo & Co. (Yes)

______ for Turner (No)

Campbell, Fitts, Weissert & others for Bleier, Brasier, Ort, Llovera & Co. (Yes)

 

[Tedballgame]

We had and have a great bull pen. We need more guys who can go 5 IP with 1-2 runs allowed- maybe 3 from time to time.

 

I don't think we have or had a great bullpen. Good, but not great by any stretch of the imagination. Agree that it would be nice to have some starters who can deliver quality starts 60% of the time or more.

[notin]

I don't think we have or had a great bullpen. Good, but not great by any stretch of the imagination. Agree that it would be nice to have some starters who can deliver quality starts 60% of the time or more.

 

It was a good bullpen that would be improved by making Houck and Whitlock full time members.

[Old Red]

It was a good bullpen that would be improved by making Houck and Whitlock full time members.

 

I’ve been clamoring for both to stay in the BP the last two years. They were cheap options for the starting rotation.

[notin]

I’ve been clamoring for both to stay in the BP the last two years. They were cheap options for the starting rotation.

 

Something that’s been done by me, you, and a lot of other people who don’t have to pay for their replacements…

[dgalehouse]

At some point this post season , almost every Sox player has been applauded and wanted back for this coming season. Folks, this team has finished dead last for three out of the last four years. It is not all Barraclough's fault. Some of these guys are not very good . And some have somehow become a bit overrated.

[oldtimer]

At some point this post season , almost every Sox player has been applauded and wanted back for this coming season. Folks, this team has finished dead last for three out of the last four years. It is not all Barraclough's fault. Some of these guys are not very good . And some have somehow become a bit overrated.

 

I think Breslow will continue to be more decisive than Bloom and still is actively trying to trade of assets for more pitching and perhaps for an additional bat. We have Yoshita and we have more outfielders even without Yoshida than we need. Possibly Myer is expendable. I expect that Breslow will get one more starter either through FA or trade and that he will also find a quality bat with food power who can DH and at least play a field position on a part time basis. Clearly we need to make improvements in at least some positions if we hope to leave the NL East cellar in 2024.

 

[cp176]

You said it in far less words than I.

 

 

It will obviously be great if we do something about a greatest need. I just think that some of it might be wasted if these guys don't field better than they did last year. We'll see how it all shakes out but I think they are a long way from truly competing.

[Dipre]

At some point this post season , almost every Sox player has been applauded and wanted back for this coming season. Folks, this team has finished dead last for three out of the last four years. It is not all Barraclough's fault. Some of these guys are not very good . And some have somehow become a bit overrated.

 

No one here is overrating the worst starting pitching unit in the AL last year. We are saying the position player lineup and bullpen are in a much better place than that unit. What is it proclaiming people are saying things they clearly have not said?

[harmony]

Looking at the roster turnover, only, I can't say we look better. We might be, but I can't say, "yes."

 

O'Neill (more from Abreu, Rafaela & Duran) for Dugo & Duvall (Maybe)

Giolito for Paxton, Sale & Kluber (Maybe/possibly Yes)

Grissom for Arroyo & Co. (Yes)

______ for Turner (No)

Campbell, Fitts, Weissert & others for Bleier, Brasier, Ort, Llovera & Co. (Yes)

FWIW Isaiah Campbell exceeded the rookie limits in 2023 but remains the only prospect-type Seattle has traded this offseason in revamping the Mariner lineup under financial constraints.

 

On Friday the Mariners acquired outfielders Luke Raley and Mitch Haniger, as well as veteran starter Anthony DeSclafani, without adding to the 2024 payroll. Spotrac currently projects Seattle with a $117.4 million payroll in 2024, down from the $131.8 million payroll last year.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/seattle-mariners/payroll/

 

upper righthand corner

 

What front office statement has been more frustrating to fans? Boston's "full throttle" or Seattle's "54 percent" sustainability?

 

https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1767619/seattle-mariners-jerry-dipoto-apologizes-clarifies/

Edited January 8, 2024 by harmony

[moonslav59]

I don't think we have or had a great bullpen. Good, but not great by any stretch of the imagination. Agree that it would be nice to have some starters who can deliver quality starts 60% of the time or more.

 

Okay, "Great" was hyperbole, and I'm sure everyone's pen would be better or much better, if so many pen arms weren't forced into starting.

 

I really think our pen was very good last year, and being 4th in IP did not help the numbers make a very good case for greatness.

 

We ended up using 28 pitchers in relief, and one was not Houck (21 GS and no RP games.) Hopefully, we can and will reduce that amount in 2024, but a lot will depend on who and how many are forced to start.

 

I'm not hopeful we add two more solid pitchers, but even adding one innings eater would, IMO, make our pen very good to great.

 

In 2023, we had 9 pitchers with under 10 IP: Kelly, Weiss, Bearclaw, Sherriff, Littell, Scott, Lamet, Faria and Reyes- and this does not count "opener games." They totalled 44 IP, mostly with bad ERAs.

 

The 15-19th in IP pen arms were:

Ort 6.27 in 19 IP

Garza 6.23 in 17

Kluber 9.45 in 13

Robertson 6.55 in 11

Joely 6.55 in 11

That's another 70+ IP of horrible numbers.

 

Let's say we add 1 solid SP'er who should start 30+ games and give us 170+ IP. For argument's sake, say we stick with Houck, who seems to do well vs the first 18 batters, and with the amount of long RP'ers we will have, we should be able to absorb his early yanks.

 

Bello 30+ GS 160+ IP

__added__ 30+ GS 160+ IP

Giolito 30+ GS 170+ IP

Pivetta 30+ GS 160+ IP

Houck 30+ GS 140+ GS

 

This pushes Crawford to the pen, and leaves us with this:

 

Jansen (maybe a top 10 closer)

Martin (maybe the best set up in MLB)

Crawford (a bit of a question mark but some huge upside)

Winckowski (can he repeat 2023?)

Whitlock (hopefully is healthy and back to 2021-2022 form)

Schreiber (needs to stay healthy)

Bernardino (looked really good, last year)

Slaten or Mata (whoever wins ST'ing)

 

The minor league depth looks way better than 2023:

(Bernardino, if Slaten & Mata make the 26)

Campbell

Criswell

Murphy

Fitts

Kelly

Weissert

Guerrero

 

That looks pretty damn good to me.

 

It is not our weak area.

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

It will obviously be great if we do something about a greatest need. I just think that some of it might be wasted if these guys don't field better than they did last year. We'll see how it all shakes out but I think they are a long way from truly competing.

 

I do think we are a ways away from being a top competitor, but I'm not so sure we are that far from being a solid WC competitor.

 

Our defense was horrendous, last year, but I do see some hope it will get closer to average than we could ever hope last year's team could be.

 

C: I think Wong & McGuire should improve. Many catchers don't mature until their 30's.

1B: Casas did better at the end of 2023. He's young and seems to study the game hard.

2B: Grissom played mostly SS, and wasn't very good at it, but our 2B position was near last in MLB in 2023. I'm hopeful we can get to the norm.'

SS: Stroy's heath is everything, here. Reyes of DHam are not good on D at SS.

3B: Devers has shown flashes of being okay to good, but I'm not expecting improvement. We will likely be bad, here, again.

LF: Yoshida playing more at DH should help, greatly. Keeping Duran in LF as much as possible will also help CF.

CF: I'm hopeful that Rafaela and or Abreu can start 140+ games in CF. Big plus.

RF: O'Neill might be slightly worse than Dugo, but Abreu should do better than last year's RF depth.

 

Overall, I see us moving from 29th or 30th to about 15-20th.

[moonslav59]

FWIW Isaiah Campbell exceeded the rookie limits in 2023 but remains the only prospect-type Seattle has traded this offseason in revamping the Mariner lineup under financial constraints.

 

On Friday the Mariners acquired outfielders Luke Raley and Mitch Haniger, as well as veteran starter Anthony DeSclafani, without adding to the 2024 payroll. Spotrac currently projects Seattle with a $117.4 million payroll in 2024, down from the $131.8 million payroll last year.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/seattle-mariners/payroll/

 

upper righthand corner

 

What front office statement has been more frustrating to fans? Boston's "full throttle" or Seattle's "54 percent" sustainability?

 

https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1767619/seattle-mariners-jerry-dipoto-apologizes-clarifies/

 

It's hard to keep track of the Seattle roster. It's always a revolving door.

 

Your team does look good, on paper.

[Randy Red Sox]

I think Breslow will continue to be more decisive than Bloom and still is actively trying to trade of assets for more pitching and perhaps for an additional bat. We have Yoshita and we have more outfielders even without Yoshida than we need. Possibly Myer is expendable. I expect that Breslow will get one more starter either through FA or trade and that he will also find a quality bat with food power who can DH and at least play a field position on a part time basis. Clearly we need to make improvements in at least some positions if we hope to leave the NL East cellar in 2024.

 

 

If the Sox have to trade a top prospect for a top SP it will be a failure since it will cost close to the same to extend the P AND cost us a top prospect. Fact is that Henry has become too cheap to spend for a #1 SP and we have no P in the system able to fill that role. Get ready for another last place finish in 2024

[Boodgyman5220]

That's nonsense, about what was and is available. There have been top-tier starters available, for money only.

 

It's almost like they're succeeding in brainwashing fans into thinking what they're doing is smart rather than just boosting their profits-of course, boosting profits is smart too, right?

 

I don’t disagree that there were difference makers available. But it seems pretty clear to me that we have waves of going for it when someone deems it appropriate and I just feel like this is again(disappointingly) a year where it’s deemed not appropriate.

 

I can only think that the hope is we see a few more cheap and controllable homegrown options emerge before the checkbook opens again.

[notin]

The lowest rungs of the BP? Sure

 

Who would that be? Mata? Slaten? Bernardino?

[notin]

That's nonsense, about what was and is available. There have been top-tier starters available, for money only.

 

It's almost like they're succeeding in brainwashing fans into thinking what they're doing is smart rather than just boosting their profits-of course, boosting profits is smart too, right?

 

In have a feeling the notion about a player being available “for money only” is not viewed by ownership with the same enthusiasm as it is by fans. I might even go so far as to say they might bite it as a negative thing.

 

But as long as they are not afraid to make a few trades, it can work out…

[notin]

I think Breslow will continue to be more decisive than Bloom and still is actively trying to trade of assets for more pitching and perhaps for an additional bat. We have Yoshita and we have more outfielders even without Yoshida than we need. Possibly Myer is expendable. I expect that Breslow will get one more starter either through FA or trade and that he will also find a quality bat with food power who can DH and at least play a field position on a part time basis. Clearly we need to make improvements in at least some positions if we hope to leave the NL East cellar in 2024.

 

 

 

Duran should be the first asset traded. Especially if the plan is to acquire a right fielder. But even if they don’t, Duran is an offensive weapon with no real position in Boston…