A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[Hugh2]

Goes without saying, man. This game will crush your hopes again and again. But here I am dreaming Sale will have a good year next year.

 

Yup….we don’t learn our lesson at all around here.

[moonslav59]

Yup….we don’t learn our lesson at all around here.

 

Every now and again the dreams come true. 4 times in 20 years is enough for me to keep dreaming.

 

Hell, I was dreaming for 50 years before 2004, with no payback.

[notin]

Time for everyone to come clean. I sometimes post under the name " notin."

 

And my daughter’s first name is Galehouse!

 

Weird!

[mvp 78]

And my daughter’s first name is Galehouse!

 

Weird!

 

My mom's maiden name is Moonslav!

[moonslav59]

My mom's maiden name is Moonslav!

 

You are making it easy to hack into your accounts!

 

[moonslav59]

Here is a look at some possible SP trade possibilities and their BTV values (years or control):

 

MIL may trade one top SP, so they can maybe afford the other three- chances are a 1 year guy:

78 Freddy Peralta (3)

30 Corbin Burnes (1)

30 Brandon Woodruff (1)

 

MIA is always rumored in SP trade talks and traded Lopez, last winter:

71 Jesus Luzardo (3)

36 Braxton Garrett (5)

24 Edward Cabrera (5)

 

PIT should always be looking to trade 1-2 year guys...

34 Mitch Keller (2)

 

CWS: same as PIT

31 Dylan Cease (2)

 

KCR: sama ole same...

26 Brady Singer (3)

 

AZ: I doubt they will trade the second highest valued pitcher in MLB, but they may fear losing Gallen in a couple year:

94 Logan Webb (5)

47 Zac Gallen (2)

 

DET: may not be looking very long term, but...

40 Tarik Skubal (3)

 

Some values of Sox players who might be dealt:

59 Mayer

51 Casas

41 Anthony

31 Houck

29 Bleis

20 Crawford

19 Yorke

18 Rafaela

10 Duran

10 Dugo

5 Drohan

4 Perales, Wikelman, Romero

 

Here are some suggested trades:

 

59 Mayer for 34 Mitch Keller and 17 David Bednar (3 yrs)

(Bleis, Yorke, Drohan and Romero are near equal value, but I doubt KCR accepts.)

 

59 Mayer for 47 Z Gallen

 

59 Mayer for 40 Skubal and 2 Tyler Holton (LH RP)

 

29 Bleis and 10 Duran for 26 Singer and 11 Massey

 

19 Yorke, 5 Drohan and 4 Romero for 26 Brady Singer (3 yrs)

 

31 Houck for 30 Burnes or Woodruff or Dylan Cease

(It would be nice if they'd take 29 Bleis and 5 Drohan.)

 

20 Crawford, 10 Duran and 5 Drohan for 36 B Garrett

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Here is a look at some possible SP trade possibilities and their BTV values (years or control):

 

MIL may trade one top SP, so they can maybe afford the other three- chances are a 1 year guy:

78 Freddy Peralta (3)

30 Corbin Burnes (1)

30 Brandon Woodruff (1)

 

MIA is always rumored in SP trade talks and traded Lopez, last winter:

71 Jesus Luzardo (3)

36 Braxton Garrett (5)

24 Edward Cabrera (5)

 

PIT should always be looking to trade 1-2 year guys...

34 Mitch Keller (2)

 

CWS: same as PIT

31 Dylan Cease (2)

 

KCR: sama ole same...

26 Brady Singer (3)

 

AZ: I doubt they will trade the second highest valued pitcher in MLB, but they may fear losing Gallen in a couple year:

94 Logan Webb (5)

47 Zac Gallen (2)

 

DET: may not be looking very long term, but...

40 Tarik Skubal (3)

 

Some values of Sox players who might be dealt:

59 Mayer

51 Casas

41 Anthony

31 Houck

29 Bleis

20 Crawford

19 Yorke

18 Rafaela

10 Duran

10 Dugo

5 Drohan

4 Perales, Wikelman, Romero

 

Here are some suggested trades:

 

59 Mayer for 34 Mitch Keller and 17 David Bednar (3 yrs)

(Bleis, Yorke, Drohan and Romero are near equal value, but I doubt KCR accepts.)

 

59 Mayer for 47 Z Gallen

 

59 Mayer for 40 Skubal and 2 Tyler Holton (LH RP)

 

29 Bleis and 10 Duran for 26 Singer and 11 Massey

 

19 Yorke, 5 Drohan and 4 Romero for 26 Brady Singer (3 yrs)

 

31 Houck for 30 Burnes or Woodruff or Dylan Cease

(It would be nice if they'd take 29 Bleis and 5 Drohan.)

 

20 Crawford, 10 Duran and 5 Drohan for 36 B Garrett

 

Thanks for the suggestions. The Red Sox organization needs a shake-up, and no one can blame a new GM for moving guys who may not even make or stay in the majors for established big league talent.

 

I'd probably make all those trades, except the last one. In the second half of the season, Crawford improved his BA/OPS/ERA/WHIP, and is arguably already as good as Garrett (the latter certainly isn't worth losing two more players). I would consider Duran straight up for Garrett... that's a deal that makes sense for both sides.

[jacksonianmarch]

C- Wong- can't hit, not a good catcher

1B- Casas- kid can hit, he is an awful 1b

2B- open

SS- Story- lost half season, sucked on return. Should be healthy going into ST, but he is never healthy it seems

3B- Devers- ended up with a solid, albeit unspectacular season for him. Middle of the order bat no question

LF- Yoshida- guy can make contact, not much power and absolutely abysmal defense. Better served at DH

CF- Duran- had a good year. Unsustainable start, big valley, good recovery then hurt. If he can stay on the field, he could provide good value

RF- Verdugo- 2.0WAR RF. Not great, not terrible, just meh

DH- Turner- 38 yrs old in 24. Probably going to see a downturn at some point. Yoshida's ultimate destination

 

SP1- Bello- kid was solid. Started striking out batters by year's end. Electric stuff

SP2- Sale- middling season. Quietly made 20 starts and is perpetually hurt

SP3- Crawford- quietly had a good year. Learned how to keep the ball in the yard. Best served as the #5

SP4- open

SP5- open

 

Anyone who thinks Houck and Whitlock should be in the rotation are out of their f***ing minds. Both of those guys had 5+ ERAs and dealt with injury after getting the Joba Chamberlain treatment. They're nails in the pen. Leave em there and stop messing with them

 

Sox farm isn't as "now ready" as it should be for a team that finished last 3 of the last 4 years. Mayer took a step back. Raffaele is MLB ready, but they'll likely groom him a little more. Sox pen should be deep if they stop f***ing around with Whitlock and Houck. They have money to burn and need to burn it in the rotation. Sox are hard to gauge here. I don't think their upside is as high as the Yanks right now because their issues were less injury and more poor roster construction (lots of DH's) or poor operational decisions (two lights out relievers being tried as starters). But because their only real long term "albatross" contract is for their star 3b who is producing at a high level, they can afford to inject massive quantities of cash into their issues and with Bloom fired, it is what they will likely do. The sox might be the most intriguing team to follow through the hot stove

[Old Red]

C- Wong- can't hit, not a good catcher

1B- Casas- kid can hit, he is an awful 1b

2B- open

SS- Story- lost half season, sucked on return. Should be healthy going into ST, but he is never healthy it seems

3B- Devers- ended up with a solid, albeit unspectacular season for him. Middle of the order bat no question

LF- Yoshida- guy can make contact, not much power and absolutely abysmal defense. Better served at DH

CF- Duran- had a good year. Unsustainable start, big valley, good recovery then hurt. If he can stay on the field, he could provide good value

RF- Verdugo- 2.0WAR RF. Not great, not terrible, just meh

DH- Turner- 38 yrs old in 24. Probably going to see a downturn at some point. Yoshida's ultimate destination

 

SP1- Bello- kid was solid. Started striking out batters by year's end. Electric stuff

SP2- Sale- middling season. Quietly made 20 starts and is perpetually hurt

SP3- Crawford- quietly had a good year. Learned how to keep the ball in the yard. Best served as the #5

SP4- open

SP5- open

 

Anyone who thinks Houck and Whitlock should be in the rotation are out of their f***ing minds. Both of those guys had 5+ ERAs and dealt with injury after getting the Joba Chamberlain treatment. They're nails in the pen. Leave em there and stop messing with them

 

Sox farm isn't as "now ready" as it should be for a team that finished last 3 of the last 4 years. Mayer took a step back. Raffaele is MLB ready, but they'll likely groom him a little more. Sox pen should be deep if they stop f***ing around with Whitlock and Houck. They have money to burn and need to burn it in the rotation. Sox are hard to gauge here. I don't think their upside is as high as the Yanks right now because their issues were less injury and more poor roster construction (lots of DH's) or poor operational decisions (two lights out relievers being tried as starters). But because their only real long term "albatross" contract is for their star 3b who is producing at a high level, they can afford to inject massive quantities of cash into their issues and with Bloom fired, it is what they will likely do. The sox might be the most intriguing team to follow through the hot stove

 

Good post, and better than the Sox fans.

[mvp 78]

Wong is a GOOD catcher, bad bat.

[Bellhorn04]

Wong is a GOOD catcher, bad bat.

 

Hmm, let's see if I can dress this up a bit.

 

Mediocre bat, for a catcher. Average MLB catcher hit .697 this year.

 

Wong had his OPS over .700 much of the year. He joined in the collective fade down the stretch, perhaps as a result of fatigue from his longest MLB season, perhaps as a result of the team having the life sucked from it by injuries to Duran and Casas, and the stunning inactivity of Bloom and his cohorts.

[notin]

C- Wong- can't hit, not a good catcher

1B- Casas- kid can hit, he is an awful 1b

2B- open

SS- Story- lost half season, sucked on return. Should be healthy going into ST, but he is never healthy it seems

3B- Devers- ended up with a solid, albeit unspectacular season for him. Middle of the order bat no question

LF- Yoshida- guy can make contact, not much power and absolutely abysmal defense. Better served at DH

CF- Duran- had a good year. Unsustainable start, big valley, good recovery then hurt. If he can stay on the field, he could provide good value

RF- Verdugo- 2.0WAR RF. Not great, not terrible, just meh

DH- Turner- 38 yrs old in 24. Probably going to see a downturn at some point. Yoshida's ultimate destination

 

SP1- Bello- kid was solid. Started striking out batters by year's end. Electric stuff

SP2- Sale- middling season. Quietly made 20 starts and is perpetually hurt

SP3- Crawford- quietly had a good year. Learned how to keep the ball in the yard. Best served as the #5

SP4- open

SP5- open

 

Anyone who thinks Houck and Whitlock should be in the rotation are out of their f***ing minds. Both of those guys had 5+ ERAs and dealt with injury after getting the Joba Chamberlain treatment. They're nails in the pen. Leave em there and stop messing with them

 

Sox farm isn't as "now ready" as it should be for a team that finished last 3 of the last 4 years. Mayer took a step back. Raffaele is MLB ready, but they'll likely groom him a little more. Sox pen should be deep if they stop f***ing around with Whitlock and Houck. They have money to burn and need to burn it in the rotation. Sox are hard to gauge here. I don't think their upside is as high as the Yanks right now because their issues were less injury and more poor roster construction (lots of DH's) or poor operational decisions (two lights out relievers being tried as starters). But because their only real long term "albatross" contract is for their star 3b who is producing at a high level, they can afford to inject massive quantities of cash into their issues and with Bloom fired, it is what they will likely do. The sox might be the most intriguing team to follow through the hot stove

 

Mayer took a step back?

 

He played in AA ball with an injury at age 20…

[moonslav59]

Thanks for the suggestions. The Red Sox organization needs a shake-up, and no one can blame a new GM for moving guys who may not even make or stay in the majors for established big league talent.

 

I'd probably make all those trades, except the last one. In the second half of the season, Crawford improved his BA/OPS/ERA/WHIP, and is arguably already as good as Garrett (the latter certainly isn't worth losing two more players). I would consider Duran straight up for Garrett... that's a deal that makes sense for both sides.

 

I doubt Duran, Drohan and Romero for Garrett would be accepted by MIA.

[Old Red]

Mayer took a step back?

 

He played in AA ball with an injury at age 20…

 

Mayer was struggling In Portland before he got hurt.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I doubt Duran, Drohan and Romero for Garrett would be accepted by MIA.

 

I hope if Miami offered Garrett for Duran -- and a pitching prospect, and a first-round draft pick -- that Boston would refuse...

 

... or at least insist the Marlins throw in Tanner Scott.

[moonslav59]

Responses to Jacko...

 

C- Wong- can't hit, not a good catcher

Wong dropped off at the end and is still young enough to improve greatly. The catching position is not known for hitting, and our team C OPS ranked 19th. Wong does control the run game, very well, but they say his jumpiness hurts his framing and blocking skills. How he gets the most out of his staff is what I want to see improve mostly. I like our tandem, although they both finished near 30th out of the top 60 catchers in MLB in OPS. (Wong is like 20th out of the top 30 in PAs. That's not horrible for a first full season.)

 

1B- Casas- kid can hit, he is an awful 1b

1B defense is not a major thing, but he did suck on D. His approach at the plate is awesome. He can and should get even better at hitting.

 

2B- open

Urias is only 26. He battled injuries, this year, but was solid from 2021-2022, you know, "way back then." The position is not "open," any more than the Yankee 2B position is open. 2021-2022: 111 OPS+ w 39 HRs in 1042 PAs.

Torres- same period: 103 OPS+ with 33 HRs in 1088 PAs (109 OPS+ '21-'23)

 

SS- Story- lost half season, sucked on return. Should be healthy going into ST, but he is never healthy it seems

He may be our make or break player of 2024. It's hard to know what to expect, except great D, if healthy.

 

3B- Devers- ended up with a solid, albeit unspectacular season for him. Middle of the order bat no question

Devers forevers is a reality.

 

LF- Yoshida- guy can make contact, not much power and absolutely abysmal defense. Better served at DH

He should DH 140 games and play LF 10-15 games. The added rest might help his bat more. The cultural adjustment may help, too.

 

CF- Duran- had a good year. Unsustainable start, big valley, good recovery then hurt. If he can stay on the field, he could provide good value

Moving Yoshi to DH and Duran to LF, FT, should help both be better players. Having Rey as a platoon-mate, if needed, makes the LF position very promising on offense.

Handing CF to Rafaela and Abreu looks scary, but if we re-sign Duvall, we should have it covered better than 2023.

 

RF- Verdugo- 2.0WAR RF. Not great, not terrible, just meh

If he's not traded, he's a slight plus in RF. If we go with Duvall/Abreu in RF, it's harder to project, but still very promising.

 

DH- Turner- 38 yrs old in 24. Probably going to see a downturn at some point. Yoshida's ultimate destination

JT will be gone. Book it. I think Yoshi will improve on 2023, significantly.

 

SP1- Bello- kid was solid. Started striking out batters by year's end. Electric stuff

It's interesting how you paint the end of his season and high K rate as the promising aspect. The K rate barely changed. (36K in last 44IP)

First 14 GS: 3.04 ERA/3.74 FIP (70K in 80 IP)

Last 14 GS: 5.49 ERA/5.36 FIP (62K in 77IP)

He did have a nice long 20 game stretch after his first 2 starts:

3.18 ERA/4.16 FIP (96K in 119). He had a super 12 GS stretch from April 29-July 5: 2.35 ERA/ 3.49 FIP.

 

SP2- Sale- middling season. Quietly made 20 starts and is perpetually hurt

Sale had a very nice stretch of GS'd after his first 3 rusty starts: 3.38/3.31 (106K in 91 IP over 17 GS.) That's still not vintage Sale, but it was a good enough sign to have hope he can be very effective again. It's the health, again, that is such a major concern, I don't think we should count on any starts from him, and make it work, if he can start 20+ in 2024.

 

SP3- Crawford- quietly had a good year. Learned how to keep the ball in the yard. Best served as the #5

Crawford did break our in '23, but I like Pivetta as our #5 and Crawford in the pen with Houck and Whitlock. That would make a fearsome 3 long relief group.

1.66 ERA and .471 OPSA as RP

4.51 ERA and .706 OPSA as SP in '23 (4.75 ERA in last 10 GS and 47 IP as SP)

SP4- open

We need to add a serious innings eater who is ace-like.

 

SP5- open

We need to add another serious innings eater who is a top #3 type pitcher, or a top #2 type, if we add a #2 and not an ace with the other SP'er addition: (A #1 and solid #3 or two solid #2's is the minimum needed.)

 

Anyone who thinks Houck and Whitlock should be in the rotation are out of their f***ing minds. Both of those guys had 5+ ERAs and dealt with injury after getting the Joba Chamberlain treatment. They're nails in the pen. Leave em there and stop messing with them.

 

You barely mention our pen, which should be our biggest strength, especially with Houck and Whitlock in it- Crawford or Pivetta, too.

Jansen

Martin

Winckowski

Schreiber

Bernardino

Houck

Whitlock

Crawford

Pivetta

Even you have to admit, that looks pretty damn good.

 

Sox farm isn't as "now ready" as it should be for a team that finished last 3 of the last 4 years. Mayer took a step back. Raffaele is MLB ready, but they'll likely groom him a little more.

We drafted mostly HS players with the early picks, and 2020's draft and lost minor league season makes it more like 3 years not 4. We just graduated Casas, Bello, Crawford, Wink, Duran, Wong and Murphy, so it's understandable, the ML ready class might be low for a spell. You forgot Abreu, who many see as a better shot that Rafaela.

BTW, these are the prospects soxprospects.com has at the MLB level by 2025:

1. Mayer '25

2. Anthony late '25

4. Rafaela '24/MLB '23

5. Teel early '25

6. Yorke '24

8. Wikelman '25 (perhaps in the pen)

11. Bonaci late '25 (may not see MLB)

12. Abreu early '24/MLB in '23 (could be a real sleeper)

13. Drohan '24 (took a big step back in AA)

15. Walter '24/MLB in '23 (40 man roster bubble player)

19. Hickey '25 (probably not as a catcher)

21. EValdez '24/MLB in '23 (showed promise with the bat)

22. Jordan '25

23. DHam '24/played some in '23

27. Mata '24 (health issues)

28. Dobbins '25

29. Guerrero '24 (could surprise from pen)

30. Bastardo '25

Others: Gambrell '24, I Coffey '24, Scott '24, Hagenman '24, Robertson '24, Meidroth '24, Rosier '24, RFern '24

 

Sox pen should be deep if they stop f***ing around with Whitlock and Houck. They have money to burn and need to burn it in the rotation. Sox are hard to gauge here. I don't think their upside is as high as the Yanks right now because their issues were less injury and more poor roster construction (lots of DH's) or poor operational decisions (two lights out relievers being tried as starters).

You have 2 studs, as you claim on the other thread. How do your other 24 slots compare to ours for 2024? How about the other 38 roster slots?

Our overall foundation is better. I like our farm better, too.

 

But because their only real long term "albatross" contract is for their star 3b who is producing at a high level, they can afford to inject massive quantities of cash into their issues and with Bloom fired, it is what they will likely do. The sox might be the most intriguing team to follow through the hot stove.

 

The Yanks might be second. They need to fill a lot of holes to get back near the top. We have fewer holes but the 2-4 we have are gaping holes. I'd rather have our problems than yours, especially the "albatross contracts."

Edited October 8, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Mayer was struggling In Portland before he got hurt.

 

In 169 ABs.

 

It's funny how Duran has proved nothing to you after a much larger sample size in the bigs in 2023, but you agree a 169 AB sample size is a step back.

[Old Red]

In 169 ABs.

 

It's funny how Duran has proved nothing to you after a much larger sample size in the bigs in 2023, but you agree a 169 AB sample size is a step back.

 

#1 I didn’t say Mayer took a step back. I just said he was struggling in Portland. I don’t know if that’s a step back, or he’s just stuck where he is at the moment

Going to AA is probably the biggest jump you make. Who’s Duran?🤭

[moonslav59]

I hope if Miami offered Garrett for Duran -- and a pitching prospect, and a first-round draft pick -- that Boston would refuse...

 

... or at least insist the Marlins throw in Tanner Scott.

 

I'd make the trade I suggested in a heartbeat.

 

Garrett is 26 and has 5 YEARS OF TEAM CONTROL. I'd do this trade, if he had 3 years of control left.

Last 2 years at ages 25-26:

3.63 ERA

3.64 FIP

120 ERA+

1.183 WHIP

8.9 K/9

1.9 BB/9

 

No way Drohan ever comes close to that. Romero is the one that could bite us in the ass, down the road. Duran is so up and down, it's hard to know what to expect.

 

You have to give to get, and getting a 5 year SP'er with solid #1 or #2 numbers at age 26 is very valuable. Miami would say NO to this offer.

 

[moonslav59]

#1 I didn’t say Mayer took a step back. I just said he was struggling in Portland. I don’t know if that’s a step back, or he’s just stuck where he is at the moment

Going to AA is probably the biggest jump you make. Who’s Duran?🤭

 

You were responding to someone who questioned his "stepping back" with a comment that suggested you agreed.

 

Man, you sure make assumptions about my comments, all the time, and almost always wrongly.

[Bellhorn04]

I'd make the trade I suggested in a heartbeat.

 

Garrett is 26 and has 5 YEARS OF TEAM CONTROL. I'd do this trade, if he had 3 years of control left.

Last 2 years at ages 25-26:

3.63 ERA

3.64 FIP

120 ERA+

1.183 WHIP

8.9 K/9

1.9 BB/9

 

No way Drohan ever comes close to that. Romero is the one that could bite us in the ass, down the road. Duran is so up and down, it's hard to know what to expect.

 

You have to give to get, and getting a 5 year SP'er with solid #1 or #2 numbers at age 26 is very valuable. Miami would say NO to this offer.

 

 

Have to say you're right.

[Old Red]

You were responding to someone who questioned his "stepping back" with a comment that suggested you agreed.

 

Man, you sure make assumptions about my comments, all the time, and almost always wrongly.

 

I don’t look at it as taking a step back. I also didn’t expect him to come up to AA, and dominate, so to me he’s just struggling.

[notin]

Mayer was struggling In Portland before he got hurt.

 

He was TWENTY YEARS OLD!!

 

Also given he played with the injury for a while, no one knows exactly when he got hurt…

[Old Red]

He was TWENTY YEARS OLD!!

 

Also given he played with the injury for a while, no one knows exactly when he got hurt…

 

Everyone knows he was 20 years old. You guys all seemed so perplexed that he was struggling in AA, and I was not. He was struggling, and that’s a fact, and to me it’s no big deal. He’s not coming to Boston anytime soon.

Edited October 8, 2023 by Old Red

[moonslav59]

Have to say you're right.

 

Was it that painful to say?

 

[moonslav59]

Everyone knows he was 20 years old. You guys all seemed so perplexed that he was struggling in AA, and I was not. He was struggling, and that’s a fact, and to be it’s no big deal. He’s not coming to Boston anytime soon.

 

Who has even hinted at being "perplexed" he struggled at AA?

 

Talk about assumptions.

 

You say "guys" like there is more than one or all of us are perplexed, when I don't see one coming even close to that position.

 

Why is it okay for you to assume, but nobody else?

 

Nobody says it's a big deal. Nobody is saying they are sure he's coming to Boston real soon.

 

Somebody questioned the comment on him "stepping back," and even you agree it might not be that.

 

Somebody mentioned the injury might be part of the reason for his small AA sample size numbers not being good. That's it.

 

Who (more than one) was "perplexed?"

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'd make the trade I suggested in a heartbeat.

 

Garrett is 26 and has 5 YEARS OF TEAM CONTROL. I'd do this trade, if he had 3 years of control left.

Last 2 years at ages 25-26:

3.63 ERA

3.64 FIP

120 ERA+

1.183 WHIP

8.9 K/9

1.9 BB/9

 

No way Drohan ever comes close to that. Romero is the one that could bite us in the ass, down the road. Duran is so up and down, it's hard to know what to expect.

 

You have to give to get, and getting a 5 year SP'er with solid #1 or #2 numbers at age 26 is very valuable. Miami would say NO to this offer.

 

 

If Garrett is close to a #1 or #2, then what does that make Crawford this year?

 

Kutter 2023

4.04 ERA

3.83 FIP

113 ERA+

1.106 WHIP

9.4 K/9

2.5 BB/9

 

All those numbers look pretty close to those listed for Garrett... does that make Crawford a #3? And if so, why would a pitching-starved cellar dweller want to deal a guy like that -- especially for someone slighter better?

 

Intentional incremental improvements are what got us in this mess the past four years.

[Nick]

If Garrett is close to a #1 or #2, then what does that make Crawford this year?

 

Kutter 2023

4.04 ERA

3.83 FIP

113 ERA+

1.106 WHIP

9.4 K/9

2.5 BB/9

 

All those numbers look pretty close to those listed for Garrett... does that make Crawford a #3? And if so, why would a pitching-starved cellar dweller want to deal a guy like that -- especially for someone slighter better?

 

Intentional incremental improvements are what got us in this mess the past four years.

 

Moon has him going to the bullpen. And we trade a prospect(s) for a starter to replace him.

Edited October 8, 2023 by Nick

[moonslav59]

If Garrett is close to a #1 or #2, then what does that make Crawford this year?

 

Kutter 2023

4.04 ERA

3.83 FIP

113 ERA+

1.106 WHIP

9.4 K/9

2.5 BB/9

 

All those numbers look pretty close to those listed for Garrett... does that make Crawford a #3? And if so, why would a pitching-starved cellar dweller want to deal a guy like that -- especially for someone slighter better?

 

Intentional incremental improvements are what got us in this mess the past four years.

 

1. Garrett has done it for 2 years.

2. Crawford's numbers are improved by his RP innings factored in. He is 4.51 as a SP in 2023, which is like Pivetta's numbers over 3 years, so that's a #5 IMO, if we know he can repeat it. He is 5.05 career as a SP.

3. Crawford's last 10 starts showed he might have been tiring and may not be able to handle 25-30 GS and 175+ IP (4.75 in his last 10 starts.)

 

I'm not dissing Crawford. I really like him, but Garrett is more proven.

 

2022-2023 Garrett ranks (some are RP'ers with 150+ IP)

77th in IP (248)

54th in fWAR (which suggests he's a #2 SP by WAR)

53rd WHIP at 1.18

44th ERA- at 85 (middle #2)

35th K%-BB%

 

OtheOne meaningful number suggest he's a top 30 SP in MLB.

25th xFIP at 3.45 (same as Snell and better than Peralta, Luzardo & Kirby)

 

 

[moonslav59]

Moon has him going to the bullpen. And we trade a prospect(s) for a starter to replace him.

 

Garrett is a proven SP'er of #2 quality and upside #1 abilities.

 

This is not even close.

 

Crawford has proven nothing as a SP. In fact, he's "proven" he's much better as a RP'er.

 

I would not mind Crawford as our #5, but to me, Pivetta has proven he is better suited at the #5 than Crawford.

 

SP1: addition

SP2: addition

SP3: Bello

SP4: Sale (too undependable for my liking at #4)

SP5: Pivetta

SP6: Crawford (better in long relief)

 

If you guys want us to get a solid SP, but don't think Garrett qualifies, then be prepared to spend a ton getting someone better, either in money or traded prospects.

 

Garrett is a top 25 to 55 SP'er in every meaningful stat or metric I can find.

 

To think Crawford has proven he is near that is wishful thinking.