A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[notin]

What is an average player? Verdugo?

 

No.

 

Whit Merrifield is average.

[Bellhorn04]

No.

 

Whit Merrifield is average.

 

Verdugo had an OPS+ of 100. Offensively, that's as average as you can get.

 

Is his defense that much better than average?

[notin]

Verdugo had an OPS+ of 100. Offensively, that's as average as you can get.

 

Is his defense that much better than average?

 

I tried a different route.

 

Per Fangraphs, all teams combined for 570 fWAR for position players. As there are 390 roster slots in MLB for position players, that makes for roughly 1.5 fWAR per roster spot.

 

Whit Merrifield’s fWAR this year is 1.5.

 

So that’s another way to determine an average player, I guess.

 

(J.T. Realmuto also worked.)

[sk7326]

A tiny positive fWAR for a regular still sucks, though. Do you agree?

 

Yes.

 

A good way to think about replacement level would be ... oh I don't know .. Bobby Dalbec. He's not really good enough to be a real big leaguer, but he can play in a pinch. I believe based both fangraphs and bbref reached an agreement on how to interpret replacement level that way. Now, I am not sure of the details - but a good rule of thumby way to look at it is that a team made up entirely of replacement players would be expected to be a real major league team, but the worst one in the league. Let's say 50 wins.

 

So the Orioles ended up with (as a team) 16 combined WAR from pitching and 28 WAR from the position hitting/defense. That 44 WAR if you add to 50 gets you 94 wins, and their pythagorean record was 94-68

Atlanta 39.2 WAR from hitting/defense, 16.2 WAR from pitching = 55.4 combined WAR ... 105 wins ... their run differential speaks to 101 pythagorean wins

 

Red Sox 17.2 pitching WAR, 19.1 batting/def WAR ... 86 wins ... pythagorean 81 wins.

 

Oakland 0.0 pitching WAR, 11.2 batting WAR ... 61 wins ... 49 pythagorean wins

 

So this is not exact, but you get the rough idea. So, looking at bbref. The median team in 2023 was about 18 WAR from batting/fielding. That ends up to about 2 WAR per player/season. If you back out 10% for what seems to me to be a fair number of rest days or whatever (so 146 starts) that gets you to about 1.8 WAR for a full season starter as an average position player/DH.

 

0.5 WAR (whatever flavor) sucks - assuming we are talking about a large number of plate appearances. Basically it means that means you are only slightly better than any ole Rick Lancelotti/Crash Davis type of up-and-down guy.

[sk7326]

Verdugo had an OPS+ of 100. Offensively, that's as average as you can get.

 

Is his defense that much better than average?

 

Whatever bump he got this year from last year WAR wise was entirely due to defense.

 

Now, I do think a useful rule of thumb is that an X win player whose wins were built on offense is .. well, a more reliable measurement than an X win player whose wins were built on defense. While there has been tons of work done on measuring defensive value, it will always have larger error bars than offense.

[moonslav59]

Verdugo had an OPS+ of 100. Offensively, that's as average as you can get.

 

Is his defense that much better than average?

 

This year, surprisingly kinda yes, but career, I'd say average.

[Larry Cook]

Verdugo had an OPS+ of 100. Offensively, that's as average as you can get.

 

Is his defense that much better than average?

 

Time for verdugo to buy a condo in Miami!!!

[notin]

This year, surprisingly kinda yes, but career, I'd say average.

 

Not sure I agree. Hi you really think 50% of all corner outfielders are as good or better than Verdugo defensively?

[moonslav59]

Time for verdugo to buy a condo in Miami!!!

 

Verdugo or Duran

Plus Yorke, Drohan and Walter to MIA for Garrett

was accepted on BTV.

[moonslav59]

Not sure I agree. Hi you really think 50% of all corner outfielders are as good or better than Verdugo defensively?

 

AVG in RF

Above in LF

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Verdugo had an OPS+ of 100. Offensively, that's as average as you can get.

 

 

The Red Sox had a team OPS+ of 100... right at the exact league average. That confirms what our eyes told us all season: their vaunted offense was mediocre.

 

The only teams above-average were Tampa, Texas, Houston, Baltimore, Minnesota, Toronto and Seattle... all legit contenders.

 

One stat that stands out is team bases on balls; only three clubs drew less walks than Boston: Cleveland, KC and Chicago (legit sellers).

 

Casas was tied for 12th with 70 walks. Devers was second with 62 (tied for 22nd). Then there were guys like Wong and Duvall, 22 walks each, Duran, 24, and Yoshida, 34 BB in 537 Plate Appearances (Wade Boggs had that many in just chicken dinner plate appearances every spring in the 1980s).

 

The Sox need better swingers and better takers.

[mvp 78]

No.

 

Whit Merrifield is average.

 

According to WAA, he's BELOW average.

 

I'm going to stick with WAR.

[Bellhorn04]

According to WAA, he's BELOW average.

 

I'm going to stick with WAR.

 

We can't forget that WAR is a counting measure, not a rate measure.

 

A 2.0 WAR is about average - but only for a full time player.

[notin]

We can't forget that WAR is a counting measure, not a rate measure.

 

A 2.0 WAR is about average - but only for a full time player.

 

Average based on what?

 

I think that’s the way they say it works, but is it really mathematically true for an average starter (which is not at all the same as an average player) to be 2 fWAR?

[notin]

According to WAA, he's BELOW average.

 

I'm going to stick with WAR.

 

How about that?

 

So according to WAA, Whit Merrifield isn’t even as good as himself. This could get deeply philosophical…

[mvp 78]

How about that?

 

So according to WAA, Whit Merrifield isn’t even as good as himself. This could get deeply philosophical…

 

Whit Merrifield is the worst Whit Merrifield in the past several timelines I've visited!

[Bellhorn04]

Average based on what?

 

I think that’s the way they say it works, but is it really mathematically true for an average starter (which is not at all the same as an average player) to be 2 fWAR?

 

2.0 is roughly average for a player who plays about 150 games? Something like that. It's real math.

[notin]

I think there is a clear issue with the interpretation of the baseline for both WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and WAA (Wins Above Average).

 

This makes is abundantly clear that we need to bring back the best measurement ever developed - WAFL (Wins Above Felipe Lopez).

 

You can argue about what a replacement player is or what an average player is. But we all know what Felipe Lopez is…

[Bellhorn04]

I think there is a clear issue with the interpretation of the baseline for both WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and WAA (Wins Above Average).

 

This makes is abundantly clear that we need to bring back the best measurement ever developed - WAFL (Wins Above Felipe Lopez).

 

You can argue about what a replacement player is or what an average player is. But we all know what Felipe Lopez is…

 

Felipe had a career average of 1.0 bWAR per 162 games.

 

He was halfway between replacement and average.

[mvp 78]

I think there is a clear issue with the interpretation of the baseline for both WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and WAA (Wins Above Average).

 

This makes is abundantly clear that we need to bring back the best measurement ever developed - WAFL (Wins Above Felipe Lopez).

 

You can argue about what a replacement player is or what an average player is. But we all know what Felipe Lopez is…

 

I think a replacement player seems self evident: a guy you're bringing up from AAA to fill in. Think the end of the 2022 season and Abraham Almonte (11 seasons, 463 games, 1.1 fWAR, 1 bWAR, 162 Game AVG 0.3).

[notin]

Felipe had a career average of 1.0 bWAR per 162 games.

 

He was halfway between replacement and average.

 

 

But more important, he’s Felipe Lopez. Not like that pan-dimensional jackass freak Whit Merrifield…

[notin]

I think a replacement player seems self evident: a guy you're bringing up from AAA to fill in. Think the end of the 2022 season and Abraham Almonte (11 seasons, 463 games, 1.1 fWAR, 1 bWAR, 162 Game AVG 0.3).

 

But WAFL is a much better acronym than WAAA. One is reminiscent of a tasty breakfast treat, while the other looks like a literary representation of a whiny sound…

[notin]

Whit Merrifield is the worst Whit Merrifield in the past several timelines I've visited!

 

Every Whit Everywhere All At Once?

[Maxbialystock]

2.0 is roughly average for a player who plays about 150 games? Something like that. It's real math.

 

First time I've read that 2.0 is average, but I'm fine with it. Sox had 6 above average players this season--

 

Devers 3.5

Dugo 2.6

Casas 2.2

Duran 2.2

Wong 2.2

Turner 2.1

 

2018 Sox (best Sox team ever) had just 5 "above average" players, so I include their OPS's--

 

Betts 10.9 (1.078)

JDM 6.4 (1.031)

Beni 3.9 (.830)

Bogey 3.8 (.883)

JBJ 2.1 (.717)

[vegasbob]

Since this is about 2024, and the Red Sox need for reliable starting pitching , I will throw out that Chris Sale will amaze people by actually contributing in the form of 25+- starts, 140 innings , and a 3.90 ERA . He would get more innings if he did not strike out so many guys.

 

Rationale : Sale is coming up on his contract year , and although wealthy enough , he will be looking for maybe a 2 year deal at $20million per, so he will find a way to extend his frail self to make that happen. I will give the skeptic s, naysayers and medical staff 6 months to prove me wrong.

[Bellhorn04]

Since this is about 2024, and the Red Sox need for reliable starting pitching , I will throw out that Chris Sale will amaze people by actually contributing in the form of 25+- starts, 140 innings , and a 3.90 ERA . He would get more innings if he did not strike out so many guys.

 

Rationale : Sale is coming up on his contract year , and although wealthy enough , he will be looking for maybe a 2 year deal at $20million per, so he will find a way to extend his frail self to make that happen. I will give the skeptic s, naysayers and medical staff 6 months to prove me wrong.

 

Sale also has a vesting option. If he finishes in the top 10 in Cy Young voting next year and is healthy at the end of the year, he'll be back in 2025.

[moonslav59]

Since this is about 2024, and the Red Sox need for reliable starting pitching , I will throw out that Chris Sale will amaze people by actually contributing in the form of 25+- starts, 140 innings , and a 3.90 ERA . He would get more innings if he did not strike out so many guys.

 

Rationale : Sale is coming up on his contract year , and although wealthy enough , he will be looking for maybe a 2 year deal at $20million per, so he will find a way to extend his frail self to make that happen. I will give the skeptic s, naysayers and medical staff 6 months to prove me wrong.

 

To think this, implies his resolve (or lack of it) played a part in his missing so much time before 2024.

 

To me, he's always been a fierce competitor, and this has killed him missing so much time, and then sucking, too often when he has pitched, here and there.

 

I do think it's possible he may start 26+ games and give 160+ IP in 2024. I won't be shocked, if he does. I just think we cannot plan on even one start. If we do, we are dooming ourselves into the same trap we've fallen into for over 4 years.

[moonslav59]

Sale also has a vesting option. If he finishes in the top 10 in Cy Young voting next year and is healthy at the end of the year, he'll be back in 2025.

 

That clause also includes him not being on the IL to end the season.

 

Cots:

 

2025 option guaranteed if Sale finishes in top 10 in 2024 Cy Young vote and is not on the injured list at end of 2024 season

[Hugh2]

If Sale finished top 10 in CY YOUNG voting would he even exercise his option?

[notin]

If Sale finished top 10 in CY YOUNG voting would he even exercise his option?

 

I think it’s a team option that automatically vests if he meets the terms…