Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[mvp 78]

Maybe.

 

But at two years older, Anthony Rendon got 7 years $245mill that offseason, giving him an AAV nearly $10mill higher than Xander got. And the SS market was absolutely barren, with the largest contract being the one year $14mill contract Didi Grigorious signed...

 

Rendon was coming of back to back to back 5/6 fWAR seasons. That's not where Xander was then.

[mvp 78]

When you don't know "how hard they tried," how is it real world to say they should have tried harder?

 

IMO, they did not try "hard enough" and should have "tried harder," but I know it is just an opinion- not fact.

 

 

They should have tried harder because they should have given Mookie a counteroffer! Mookie should still be a Red Sox no matter what. Ownership FAILED! FACT!!!

[Bellhorn04]

When you don't know "how hard they tried," how is it real world to say they should have tried harder?

 

IMO, they did not try "hard enough" and should have "tried harder," but I know it is just an opinion- not fact.

 

 

Red Sox media = too lazy to chase the facts.

[moonslav59]

It wasn't always a slam dunk that he would opt out after 3 years. Anything could have happened.

 

Agreed. I think DD would have tried to extend him before those 3 years were up.

 

I don't think Bloom was all that sure he wanted Bogey at even near market price. That's my own opinion.

 

All we know on Bogey is no acceptable offer was ever made to him. We don't even know if or what offers were made. It's almost 100% speculation on Bogey.

[mvp 78]

Red Sox media = too lazy to chase the facts.

 

Too loaded up on ice cream.

 

"Don't ask those tough questions again unless you want the free Coke machine to vanish..."

[mvp 78]

Agreed. I think DD would have tried to extend him before those 3 years were up.

 

I don't think Bloom was all that sure he wanted Bogey at even near market price. That's my own opinion.

 

All we know on Bogey is no acceptable offer was ever made to him. We don't even know if or what offers were made. It's almost 100% speculation on Bogey.

 

I agree, Bloom is a bad GM.

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed. I think DD would have tried to extend him before those 3 years were up.

 

I don't think Bloom was all that sure he wanted Bogey at even near market price. That's my own opinion.

 

All we know on Bogey is no acceptable offer was ever made to him. We don't even know if or what offers were made. It's almost 100% speculation on Bogey.

 

Not really. The reports of the one year add-on for $30 million to make 4/$90, and the later offer of 6/$162 haven't been disputed AFAIK.

[Hitch]

They were in a clear rebuild. They should have dealt everyone in '22. Why keep holding onto these guys year to year. Let them all go.

 

Yup. Which just further adds to the idea there was zero strategy behind anything we've done these past few years. I hope that's changing with Bres and Epstein back now.

[notin]

They were in a clear rebuild. They should have dealt everyone in '22. Why keep holding onto these guys year to year. Let them all go.

 

That would have been an acceptable albeit somewhat disheartening direction, but at least it was a direction. That they only added fringey upgrades with borderline players like Hosmer and Urias and failed to even bother addressing their biggest needs (which, judging from the deals other teams made, could have been done without touching the top prospects) was just completely unacceptable...

[Bellhorn04]

Yup. Which just further adds to the idea there was zero strategy behind anything we've done these past few years. I hope that's changing with Bres and Epstein back now.

 

I don't know, I thought Bloom really was trying to do the rebuild but compete thing. He just made some s***** moves, and he got incredibly indecisive at the deadlines. But his offseason moves did make some sense in view of the stated plan.

[moonslav59]

I was definitely on the sale side of things. We should have turned JD, Bogey, Paxton and the others (such as Sale if to be believed) into some very decent pieces in our organisation which we'd be utilising right now. I do think Bloom got a good amount of things right, but we had the chance to cash in twice on a team that was going nowhere. And that's without the f*** up of leaving us slightly over on the luxury tax, moving our compensatory pick back. So frustrating.

 

I know I gave up on our chance to win in 2022 before most others, and I get the argument about being only x games behind the last WC slot on tarde day, but I just had a sense we were toast. IMO, we should have sold every player not under control for 2023. We should have told Bogey we were not going to offer him market value, so why not accept a trade and lose the QO burden. I might have agreed.

 

We'd have been way better off for 2023 (and or beyond) had we done that. Being a little better off would likely have made being buyers in '23 more apparent, even to Bloom, but even selling in '23 was better than doing nothing.

[moonslav59]

I agree, Bloom is a bad GM.

 

On the Bogey choice, maybe we should wait to see how well he does in the next 4-6 years, before saying letting him walk was a big mistake.

 

Bloom sucked on his biggest and most important deals. That alone, gets GMs fired. He deserved it.

 

He did a lot of what he was told to do, and did seem to build up the farm and roster depth to a large degree, but it does not seem like enough to get Brez over the hump. (I also doubt Brez trades away Bloom's prospects, like DD did with Ben's.)

[Bellhorn04]

On the Bogey choice, maybe we should wait to see how well he does in the next 4-6 years, before saying letting him walk was a big mistake.

 

Bloom sucked on his biggest and most important deals.

 

So we shouldn't wait on Story and Yoshida, only Bogaerts?

[moonslav59]

Not really. The reports of the one year add-on for $30 million to make 4/$90, and the later offer of 6/$162 haven't been disputed AFAIK.

 

I have my doubts on both reports, and again, we keep going back to the argument that anything not refuted must be fact. It certainly sounds plausible.

 

Let's assume the $162M/6 deal was real. While I do think that was an underbid, without knowing what Bogey was offering, I cannot place certain blame on Bloom for not countering a phantom counter.

 

Also, what if Bogey barely earns $162M/6, even at today's market prices? (I doubt that happens, but it could.)

 

IMO, $162M/6 might have been the highest Bloom would ever offer, despite the acts of surprise, when he signed with SDP. I think he made a mistake. I think Bogey was worth at least $200M/8 or maybe $190M/7. I'm sure other disagree. That's fine.

[Bellhorn04]

I have my doubts on both reports, and again, we keep going back to the argument that anything not refuted must be fact.

 

Not saying must be fact, but I believe the reports were from credible sources, and if not refuted, why would you doubt them?

[Tedballgame]

Red Sox take a flyer on Michael Fulmer. Two year minor league deal. He is out for 2024 season. Hopefully, he can contribute in 2025. Low risk move.

[moonslav59]

So we shouldn't wait on Story and Yoshida, only Bogaerts?

 

No. I've said Yoshida still has time to make the deal look okay. Story would have to be great to earn his keep.

 

I'd say those two deals are better graded as incomplete, and when I say Bloom botched more than half his biggest deals, I'm not counting those 2 as botches (just yet)

 

$8M or more

Richards- botch

Kluber- botch

Ottavino (trade) close to a botch

Kike II- botch

 

JT- good

Kike I- okay

 

Story- INC

Yoshida- INC

 

Did I miss anyone over $8M?

 

His $3-7M were much better, including Renfroe, Strahm, Hill, Wacha and Duvall.

 

(Bad: Marwin and others I can't remember, right now.)

 

[Bellhorn04]

No. I've said Yoshida still has time to make the deal look okay. Story would have to be great to earn his keep.

 

I'd say those two deals are better graded as incomplete, and when I say Bloom botched more than half his biggest deals, I'm not counting those 2 as botches (just yet)

 

So you're saying he sucked on his biggest deals, but you're not counting Story and Yoshida?

[notin]

Rendon was coming of back to back to back 5/6 fWAR seasons. That's not where Xander was then.

 

But after 2019, when Xander would have reached free agency, he would have been coming off a 5.9fWAR season. His 10.3 fWAR in 2018-19 could have netted him more than a $25.5mill AAV, and was more than Rendon had at the same ages.

 

He probably would not have gotten 11 years, since the fad at that time was to jack up the years in order to lower the AAV. But he could have definitely gotten a monster deal, especially given the (lack of) other options on the market that year...

[moonslav59]

So you're saying he sucked on his biggest deals, but you're not counting Story and Yoshida?

 

I said he sucked on over half his big deals. Even if you count them as good deals, he still sucked on more than half.

 

I'm counting them as incomplete that have sucked, so far.

 

I don't see a contradiction.

[Bellhorn04]

I said he sucked on over half his big deals. Even if you count them as good deals, he still sucked on more than half.

 

I'm counting them as incomplete that have sucked, so far.

 

I don't see a contradiction.

 

I see a problem in not weighting anything, lumping in $10 million contracts with $140 million contracts.

 

It's all academic, of course.

[mvp 78]

Yup. Which just further adds to the idea there was zero strategy behind anything we've done these past few years. I hope that's changing with Bres and Epstein back now.

 

Very chaotic.

[mvp 78]

I don't know, I thought Bloom really was trying to do the rebuild but compete thing. He just made some s***** moves, and he got incredibly indecisive at the deadlines. But his offseason moves did make some sense in view of the stated plan.

 

I think he tried the "be competitive while rebuilding" but he should have torn it all down in '22.

[mvp 78]

On the Bogey choice, maybe we should wait to see how well he does in the next 4-6 years, before saying letting him walk was a big mistake.

 

Bloom sucked on his biggest and most important deals. That alone, gets GMs fired. He deserved it.

 

He did a lot of what he was told to do, and did seem to build up the farm and roster depth to a large degree, but it does not seem like enough to get Brez over the hump. (I also doubt Brez trades away Bloom's prospects, like DD did with Ben's.)

 

Letting Bogey go wasn't a mistake. Not offering him a lower contract ahead of time was.

 

Letting Mookie go and not offering him 375M was a mistake.

[moonslav59]

I see a problem in not weighting anything, lumping in $10 million contracts with $140 million contracts.

 

It's all academic, of course.

 

My line was arbitrary, for sure.

 

One could word it like this.

 

His major two contracts have started out poorly and don't look good, at all, so far.

 

His $8-32M deals look more bad than good, in terms of how many sucked vs how many were good or okay. (I forgot Jansen, Martin and Barnes on my last list.)

 

Jansen, Martin, Barnes, Richards, Kluber, Kike I, Kike II, Ottavino and if you want to count Martin Perez 1 & II combines, it would add one more to the suck column.

 

His $3-7M deal worked out more good than bad.

 

Is that better?

[mvp 78]

But after 2019, when Xander would have reached free agency, he would have been coming off a 5.9fWAR season. His 10.3 fWAR in 2018-19 could have netted him more than a $25.5mill AAV, and was more than Rendon had at the same ages.

He probably would not have gotten 11 years, since the fad at that time was to jack up the years in order to lower the AAV. But he could have definitely gotten a monster deal, especially given the (lack of) other options on the market that year...

 

That's 1 year at 5.9 fwar. Rendon went 5.9/5.9/6.8. Xander didn't have that in his arsenal.

[moonslav59]

Letting Bogey go wasn't a mistake. Not offering him a lower contract ahead of time was.

 

Letting Mookie go and not offering him 375M was a mistake.

 

I agree on $375M for Betts, and he probably would have taken it. I was fine with $400M a year before he was traded.

 

Wasn't $162M/6 a lower contract ahead of time? Do we know what was offered, discussed or floated? Sure, I wish we signed Bogey for less than SDP, but by a lot. If we never offered hima reasonable deal, I agree 100%, it was a mistake.

[notin]

That's 1 year at 5.9 fwar. Rendon went 5.9/5.9/6.8. Xander didn't have that in his arsenal.

 

No but he had enough to get better than a $25.5 mill AAV. And let’s face it, his age alone made him a candidate for an overpay…

[Duran Is The Man]

There was a lot of problems above Bloom, no doubt, but he f***ed up two consecutive trade deadlines, and f***ed them up badly. He deserved to be sacked for that alone, but add in that it was reported often that he was very indecisive and questioned his own decisions over and over (the two deadlines would back that up), and it was right to move on from him, whether the issues get cleared up above him or not.

 

yep. Henry f***ed up firing DD and then he doubled down on his f***ing up by hiring this unproven clown.

[mvp 78]

yep. Henry f***ed up firing DD and then he doubled down on his f***ing up by hiring this unproven clown.

 

It's clear that Henry preferred inexperienced guys that he can boss around.