Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[mvp 78]

Can you imagine if the Sox DFAd Jacques and then didn’t bring back Montgomery or Snell?

 

Jacques has the better GB rate. Would be unbelievable to DFA him for Montgomery or Snell!

[moonslav59]

That trade sucks. You're trading at top 10 prospect, plus your two best starting pitching prospects to get a guy with #2 ceiling?

 

5 years of a guy who is already a #2 type pitcher.

 

He's just 26. He has a 3.63 ERA since 2022 and a nearly identical FIP of 3.64.

 

His xFIP is 3.45, which is 19th best in MLB, among pitchers with 240+ IP, since 2022. I thought xFIP was your baby.

 

Best 2 pitching prospects in the Sox system is not saying much. You have said both will likely be RP'ers, anyway.

 

If you prefer: sub in 3 years of Luzardo, and the trade is still accepted.

 

I'd like to say we could sign a better SP with the money saved, but ____.

Edited February 9, 2024 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

And AJ Puk!!

 

He could easily be better than Jansen in 2024 and has 2 more years of pretty cheap control.

[notin]

Someplace in one of these threads I suggested the Padres should be interested in Jarren Duran.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/padres-trade-rumors-jarren-duran-red-sox-free-agents-lorenzen-ryu-lauer.html

[Bellhorn04]

Someplace in one of these threads I suggested the Padres should be interested in Jarren Duran.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/padres-trade-rumors-jarren-duran-red-sox-free-agents-lorenzen-ryu-lauer.html

 

Now if only we could get Michael King for him...

[notin]

Now if only we could get Michael King for him...

 

Have faith, my son. As Tolkien once prophesized, we shall see The Return of the King…

[Bellhorn04]

Have faith, my son. As Tolkien once prophesized, we shall see The Return of the King…

 

Get 'er done, Crag my boy. It's time to step up and pull this offseason out of the shitter.

[notin]

Get 'er done, Crag my boy. It's time to step up and pull this offseason out of the shitter.

 

Hey he listened to me on Tyler O’Neill, didn’t he?

[moonslav59]

Now if only we could get Michael King for him...

 

Would we use King as a SP'er?

[notin]

Would we use King as a SP'er?

 

Sure. Why not?

[moonslav59]

Sure. Why not?

 

Maybe the 1-9 4.33 in 19 career GS as a SP'er thingy.

 

You guys laughed at me for suggesting Seth Lugo. (26 GS in '23 at 8-7 and 3.57.)

 

I'm fine with King, and BTV loves the trade, but the 2 year thing swings me to a no.

 

[jad]

Michael Fullmer, baby!!!! And he'll be ready to pitch as early as spring 2025! As Johnny Manziel famously said, "Let's get ready to WRECK THE LEAGUE!"

[moonslav59]

Best of available FAs the Sox could use:

 

Snell (I'd prefer Monty)

Monty

 

Clevinger

 

Soler, Duvall or Pham (maybe if Duran is traded)

 

Lauer, Lorenzen, Ryu, B Keller

 

With Baggage: Bauer & Urias

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe the 1-9 4.33 in 19 career GS as a SP'er thingy.

 

You guys laughed at me for suggesting Seth Lugo. (26 GS in '23 at 8-7 and 3.57.)

 

I'm fine with King, and BTV loves the trade, but the 2 year thing swings me to a no.

 

 

King posted stellar numbers as a starter in 2023 in spite of the MEANINGLESS W-L RECORD OF 1-4

 

Only 40.1 innings though.

 

As for Lugo, I had nothing against signing him.

 

Projected 2024 WARs:

 

King 2.5 ish

Lugo 2.0 ish

 

For some reason I see more upside in King. It was impressive how well he did when they switched him back to a starter last year.

 

You're right that 2 years of control is an issue. Good extension candidate though perhaps.

 

Bottom line I'd definitely do it.

 

The Padres might not though because their MLB starting pitching is thin like their outfield.

[notin]

King posted stellar numbers as a starter in 2023 in spite of the MEANINGLESS W-L RECORD OF 1-4

 

Only 40.1 innings though.

 

As for Lugo, I had nothing against signing him.

 

Projected 2024 WARs:

 

King 2.5 ish

Lugo 2.0 ish

 

For some reason I see more upside in King. It was impressive how well he did when they switched him back to a starter last year.

 

You're right that 2 years of control is an issue. Good extension candidate though perhaps.

 

Bottom line I'd definitely do it.

 

The Padres might not though because their MLB starting pitching is thin like their outfield.

 

Yeah they only have 3 SPs and 2 OFs. They do have 4 open spots on their 40 man. Plus about 4 or 5 pitchers on my DFA Radar…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yeah they only have 3 SPs and 2 OFs. They do have 4 open spots on their 40 man. Plus about 4 or 5 pitchers on my DFA Radar…

 

Held off commenting for two days so as not to sound negative... but if I posted the idea of SD trading King for Duran, I would expect an immediate reply to go something like:

 

So you're saying the Padres -- whose rotation just lost Cy Young, Lugo, and Wacha (that only talksox regulars bash for leading the majors in winning percentage the past two years), plus MLB's top closer -- will want to give up their best piece they just got in a deal for their generational hitter... for a fast leadoff type with a shaky glove?

How will San Diego diehards on talkpads.com react when they realize they effectively traded Juan Soto for Jarren Duran?

[mvp 78]

5 years of a guy who is already a #2 type pitcher.

 

He's just 26. He has a 3.63 ERA since 2022 and a nearly identical FIP of 3.64.

 

His xFIP is 3.45, which is 19th best in MLB, among pitchers with 240+ IP, since 2022. I thought xFIP was your baby.

 

Best 2 pitching prospects in the Sox system is not saying much. You have said both will likely be RP'ers, anyway.

 

If you prefer: sub in 3 years of Luzardo, and the trade is still accepted.

 

I'd like to say we could sign a better SP with the money saved, but ____.

 

Gets hit hard. 33rd percentile xERA. 8th Hard Hit%. 27th xSLG. His Statcast is as blue as papa smurf.

[mvp 78]

He could easily be better than Jansen in 2024 and has 2 more years of pretty cheap control.

 

The control overinflated his value.

[mvp 78]

Held off commenting for two days so as not to sound negative... but if I posted the idea of SD trading King for Duran, I would expect an immediate reply to go something like:

 

So you're saying the Padres -- whose rotation just lost Cy Young, Lugo, and Wacha (that only talksox regulars bash for leading the majors in winning percentage the past two years), plus MLB's top closer -- will want to give up their best piece they just got in a deal for their generational hitter... for a fast leadoff type with a shaky glove?

How will San Diego diehards on talkpads.com react when they realize they effectively traded Juan Soto for Jarren Duran?

 

I agree that SD has no SP. They aren’t trading MLB SP for Duran.

[notin]

I agree that SD has no SP. They aren’t trading MLB SP for Duran.

 

I agree.

 

They do need Duran but they also need King.

 

They do have 3 Top 100 prospects that are pitchers, but the three have combined for 47 IP above A ball, so there might be no surprises if none of them took a rotation spot either…

[mvp 78]

I agree.

 

They do need Duran but they also need King.

 

They do have 3 Top 100 prospects that are pitchers, but the three have combined for 47 IP above A ball, so there might be no surprises if none of them took a rotation spot either…

 

Trade Duran for prospects maybe? I’d consider it.

[moonslav59]

Gets hit hard. 33rd percentile xERA. 8th Hard Hit%. 27th xSLG. His Statcast is as blue as papa smurf.

 

Would you do the same trade for 3 years of Luzardo, instead?

[moonslav59]

The control overinflated his value.

 

Well, control does have value, especially when you consider Jansen's 2024 value is likely a waste to us.

[moonslav59]

Gets hit hard. 33rd percentile xERA. 8th Hard Hit%. 27th xSLG. His Statcast is as blue as papa smurf.

 

Alarming numbers. So, basically, he's been smoke & mirrors, and we can't always trust xFIP.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR on Tyler O'Neill's "Make or Break Season:"

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/make-or-break-year-tyler-oneill.html

 

[notin]

Trade Duran for prospects maybe? I’d consider it.

 

With SD, it’s probably either prospects or get a third team. Unless they figure they’re not going/likely to compete during King’s two seasons with the team…

[moonslav59]

With SD, it’s probably either prospects or get a third team. Unless they figure they’re not going/likely to compete during King’s two seasons with the team…

 

I've tried to play around on BTV with 3 way deals involving BOS- SDP- MIA, but I can't seem to give other teams what they need.

 

Duran & Jansen + $ to SDP

Garrett or Luzardo to BOS

??? (from SDP) to MIA (I doubt MIA takes pitching prospects)

 

Trying to work PHI into the trade would likely need Abel going to MIA. I'm not sure PHI wants to part with him, or if MIA wants a pitching prospect.

 

In terms of BTV values given, which I assume are too high, if we could work in trading Yorke and or E Valdez as part of the value going out, it would be ideal, but SDP and MIA already have 2Bmen. There has been some talk of SDP trading Kim, but now that involves another team.

 

Here is one:

 

To MIA: Mayer & Campusano

 

To SDP: Duran, Jansen & McGuire

 

To BOS: Luzardo, Puk, Av Garcia (+$19M) and pitching prospect rated higher than Wikelman & Perales, Matt Waldron.

 

[dgalehouse]

Held off commenting for two days so as not to sound negative... but if I posted the idea of SD trading King for Duran, I would expect an immediate reply to go something like:

 

So you're saying the Padres -- whose rotation just lost Cy Young, Lugo, and Wacha (that only talksox regulars bash for leading the majors in winning percentage the past two years), plus MLB's top closer -- will want to give up their best piece they just got in a deal for their generational hitter... for a fast leadoff type with a shaky glove?

How will San Diego diehards on talkpads.com react when they realize they effectively traded Juan Soto for Jarren Duran?

 

You get the Rich Little trophy for your spot-on impression.

[notin]

Held off commenting for two days so as not to sound negative... but if I posted the idea of SD trading King for Duran, I would expect an immediate reply to go something like:

 

So you're saying the Padres -- whose rotation just lost Cy Young, Lugo, and Wacha (that only talksox regulars bash for leading the majors in winning percentage the past two years), plus MLB's top closer -- will want to give up their best piece they just got in a deal for their generational hitter... for a fast leadoff type with a shaky glove?

How will San Diego diehards on talkpads.com react when they realize they effectively traded Juan Soto for Jarren Duran?

 

Do you suppose that trading him for two years of Michael King is something they find satisfying? You might be overvaluing King just a tad here. Especially since you think he was the best piece in that deal…

[moonslav59]

Do you suppose that trading him for two years of Michael King is something they find satisfying? You might be overvaluing King just a tad here. Especially since you think he was the best piece in that deal…

 

I'm not high on Duran, and never have been, but 5 years of Duran can certainly be viewed as close to the same value as 2 years of King.

 

King is better, but maybe not by a 5:2 ratio, right?