A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

Which is commendable. My worry has definitely been fueled by what the other scouts said about his power not carrying over.

 

I never took you for a poster who reacted so forcefully over 2 week sample sizes.

 

[Maxbialystock]

Yes because he’s appeasing grown babies. I don’t like it. Man the eff up and do your job.

 

Look at Jensen. How many players with problems with the pitch clock are going to struggle this year and blame it on the pitch clock.? But he made his weakness his strength. That’s a man, that’s a real athlete, that’s a team player right there. That’s the type of work ethic I look for as a business owner.

 

If a guy is going to become a worse hitter because he mentally can’t handle a change in the batting order he doesn’t have the emotions to handle being a pro athlete, and certainly not in this market.

 

Alex Cora, like most other managers, make decisions that statistically are not the most optimal but because they have to manage people’s “feelings”.

 

f*** your feelings batting 7th instead on 4th (or whatever) when you’re getting paid tens of millions of dollars.

 

If I’m wrong here I have zero interest in ever being right. It’s a philosophical aspect of the game that absolutely makes me sick

 

Where is this coming from? We've seen Cora change batting orders regularly throughout his tenure with the Sox. And calling the 4th spot "clean-up" is not supported by statistical evidence. Your best hitters should bat 1st, 2d, or 3d. And the 5th and 6th slots are almost as important as the 4th.

[Maxbialystock]

Yes because he’s appeasing grown babies. I don’t like it. Man the eff up and do your job.

 

Look at Jensen. How many players with problems with the pitch clock are going to struggle this year and blame it on the pitch clock.? But he made his weakness his strength. That’s a man, that’s a real athlete, that’s a team player right there. That’s the type of work ethic I look for as a business owner.

 

If a guy is going to become a worse hitter because he mentally can’t handle a change in the batting order he doesn’t have the emotions to handle being a pro athlete, and certainly not in this market.

 

Alex Cora, like most other managers, make decisions that statistically are not the most optimal but because they have to manage people’s “feelings”.

 

f*** your feelings batting 7th instead on 4th (or whatever) when you’re getting paid tens of millions of dollars.

 

If I’m wrong here I have zero interest in ever being right. It’s a philosophical aspect of the game that absolutely makes me sick

 

Where is this coming from? We've seen Cora change batting orders regularly throughout his tenure with the Sox. And calling the 4th spot "clean-up" is not supported by statistical evidence. Your best hitters should bat 1st, 2d, or 3d. And the 5th and 6th slots are almost as important as the 4th.

 

Also, as others have pointed out, after Devers, Dugo, and Turner, the Sox lineup could be called, "the return of the Mendoza syndrome" because Kike's hitting, .175, Casas .146, Refsnyder .211, Yoshida .186, Arroyo .160, and Wong . 156. McGuire is hitting a solid .385, but Wong has played in 3 more games and has 6 more at bats because he's better defensively. In fact, right now Wong leads MLB in catcher DWAR with +0.5.

[vegasbob]

Regarding Yoshida, his early and only HR may have messed up his thinking about hitting in MLB. MVP78 pointed out his topping % at 66 and low AEV . Check some prior game threads from last week where it was clearly pointed out that his swing plane

(uppercut) was leading to him grounding out to 2nd or 1st very consistently . He, in fact, was topping the ball and pulling to the right side. Pretty obvious to the observer. He needs to make the adjustment to be more of a slasher hitting line drives and hard ground balls.

We, Bloom and the team need for him to succeed.

[Hugh2]

Regarding Yoshida, his early and only HR may have messed up his thinking about hitting in MLB. MVP78 pointed out his topping % at 66 and low AEV . Check some prior game threads from last week where it was clearly pointed out that his swing plane

(uppercut) was leading to him grounding out to 2nd or 1st very consistently . He, in fact, was topping the ball and pulling to the right side. Pretty obvious to the observer. He needs to make the adjustment to be more of a slasher hitting line drives and hard ground balls.

We, Bloom and the team need for him to succeed.

Yes!

 

I don’t even need Yoshida to be a power hitter, if he can just become a gap power guy he will be fine with his approach.

[Hugh2]

Where is this coming from? We've seen Cora change batting orders regularly throughout his tenure with the Sox. And calling the 4th spot "clean-up" is not supported by statistical evidence. Your best hitters should bat 1st, 2d, or 3d. And the 5th and 6th slots are almost as important as the 4th.

 

Also, as others have pointed out, after Devers, Dugo, and Turner, the Sox lineup could be called, "the return of the Mendoza syndrome" because Kike's hitting, .175, Casas .146, Refsnyder .211, Yoshida .186, Arroyo .160, and Wong . 156. McGuire is hitting a solid .385, but Wong has played in 3 more games and has 6 more at bats because he's better defensively. In fact, right now Wong leads MLB in catcher DWAR with +0.5.

 

I was thinking this same thing while making this argument. I suppose I had a problem with not leading a Yoshida even though I’m not trying to advocate him leading off. Weird concept I know. But I was thinking Cora does this less than other managers and he does move things around. He deserves credit for that, but that mentality still exists in the game today and I find it slightly annoying

[moonslav59]

Where is this coming from? We've seen Cora change batting orders regularly throughout his tenure with the Sox. And calling the 4th spot "clean-up" is not supported by statistical evidence. Your best hitters should bat 1st, 2d, or 3d. And the 5th and 6th slots are almost as important as the 4th.

 

I think modern philosophy has the 4th slot as more valuable than 3rd. I think it goes, 2, 1, 5, 4, 3

[mvp 78]

Which is commendable. My worry has definitely been fueled by what the other scouts said about his power not carrying over.

 

Who were they? What teams were they from?

[mvp 78]

I assume you're joking because Schwarber would have fit nicely in LF, at 1B, or as DH. Verdugo was in LF in 2021, but last year it was clear he was better in RF. And 1b last year was a disaster on offense and defense.

 

In Bloom's defense--and in this case I didn't agree with him--the cost of keeping Schwarber was pretty steep.

 

Me?

[Bellhorn04]

I never took you for a poster who reacted so forcefully over 2 week sample sizes.

 

 

You're right. My gloom has basically carried forward from 2022 and the offseason. I was expecting more and they really let us down IMO.

[Bellhorn04]

Who were they? What teams were they from?

 

Too much digging required for that. But we talked about it a lot here, Old Red in particular.

[notin]

Yes!

 

I don’t even need Yoshida to be a power hitter, if he can just become a gap power guy he will be fine with his approach.

 

I’m ok if he turns in a count-working slap hitter, as long as he improves…

[moonslav59]

Too much digging required for that. But we talked about it a lot here, Old Red in particular.

 

I think the term was "industry people," whatever than means.

 

Do scouts assign contract value to players?

[notin]

Who were they? What teams were they from?

 

Maybe they were the same guys who wrote these?

 

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2019/3/25/18281381/ichiro-suzuki-scouting-report-99-do-not-acquire

[Bellhorn04]

I think the term was "industry people," whatever than means.

 

Do scouts assign contract value to players?

 

There was talk of significantly lower numbers being expected for him.

[notin]

There was talk of significantly lower numbers being expected for him.

 

I think that applies to everyone in last year’s free agent class. How many of these people who expected Yoshida to go for less had Brandon Nimmo pegged for 8 years $162mill?

 

(What a difference 20 years makes. In 2001, that kind of deal gets you a 27yo Manny Ramirez. In 2022, it only gets you a 30yo Brandon Nimmo.)

Edited April 18, 2023 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

I think that applies to everyone in last year’s free agent class. How many of these people who expected Yoshida to go for less had Brandon Nimmo pegged for 8 years $162mill?

 

OTOH Senga, who seems like a reasonable comp to Yoshida, got about what was expected, I think.

[Bellhorn04]

I think that applies to everyone in last year’s free agent class. How many of these people who expected Yoshida to go for less had Brandon Nimmo pegged for 8 years $162mill?

 

(What a difference 20 years makes. In 2001, that kind of deal gets you a 27yo Manny Ramirez. In 2022, it only gets you a 30yo Brandon Nimmo.)

 

Now go 20 back from 2001.

[notin]

Now go 20 back from 2001.

 

Back then $160mill would buy you the AL West…

Edited April 18, 2023 by notin

[notin]

OTOH Senga, who seems like a reasonable comp to Yoshida, got about what was expected, I think.

 

How is Senga a reasonable comp to Yoshida?

[Bellhorn04]

How is Senga a reasonable comp to Yoshida?

 

Similar unknown quantity factor, age etc.?

 

Maybe not. Just a thought.

[moonslav59]

There was talk of significantly lower numbers being expected for him.

 

Yes. I read the stories. I think they quoted "industry people," and again, I ask who are they?

 

Again, I'm not arguing we didn't overpay for him. Many felt we bid against ourselves for Dice-K, way back when, and it looks like we did, in hindsight.

 

I'm cutting Yoshida some slack.

 

I think he is experienced and good enough to know how to adjust and improve.

[moonslav59]

Back then $160mill would by you the AL West…

 

The purchase price for the A's in 2005 was just $180M.

 

The Rays cost $200M in 2004.

 

The Pirates, Rockies and Royals in the mid $90M in the 90's.

 

The Twins $44M in 1984.

 

CWS $20M in 1981.

[moonslav59]

There was talk of significantly lower numbers being expected for him.

 

Bleacher Report:

 

ESPN's Kiley McDaniel spoke to "10 sources" who all "thought the Red Sox overpaid by a hefty margin." One executive went as far as to say, "We thought he was worth less than half of what they paid."

 

Masslive had a longer quote...

 

“I sent texts around to a number of scouts and execs explaining what I thought his tools were (high contact, very good approach, average-ish power, limited defensive ability) and asking what I was missing between that scouting report and what the Red Sox paid,” McDaniel wrote.

 

“‘Nothing,’” replied one international scouting director. “‘Overpay for me ... too rich imo,’” from another scouting director. A third exec: “‘I have no idea.’” A fourth: “‘Nothing ... I wish they and him luck.’” A fifth: “‘We thought he was worth less than half of what they paid.’” A sixth added, “‘I have no words.’”

 

“In total, I spoke to ten sources in the aftermath of the signing and they all had a similar breakdown. They all had some level of appreciation for the player, but thought the Red Sox overpaid by a hefty margin.”

 

Some of the "10" seemed to give no opinion, and he seemed to take it as agreeing it was a major overpay.

[Maxbialystock]

I think modern philosophy has the 4th slot as more valuable than 3rd. I think it goes, 2, 1, 5, 4, 3

 

Fair enough.

[Hugh2]

Maybe Ohtani wants to play with Yoshida, so the sox overpaid him and stayed under the luxury tax to go hard after him next year.

[notin]

Maybe Ohtani wants to play with Yoshida, so the sox overpaid him and stayed under the luxury tax to go hard after him next year.

 

The longest of long shots, but also probably the best one the Sox have. After all, if he wants to play with Yoshida (which he probably does but won’t let it be a factor in his decision), the Sox are the only team that can accommodate him.

 

Of course, Ohtani didn’t hire an agent to get him a play date. He’ll go for the money…

[Hugh2]

The longest of long shots, but also probably the best one the Sox have. After all, if he wants to play with Yoshida (which he probably does but won’t let it be a factor in his decision), the Sox are the only team that can accommodate him.

 

Of course, Ohtani didn’t hire an agent to get him a play date. He’ll go for the money…

 

I was totally making this up, but how effing hilarious would it be if true. I won’t complain.

 

Is LAD out of the running? I know they reset this year but I thought I read Trevor Bauer being reinstated out the Dodgers on the hook for his salary putting them above the luxury tax threshold this year. They might bow out and reset.

 

My concern is if he’s ok coming to the west coast that puts the Mets and Yankees in the running.

 

Unless of course, Yoshida convinces him to come here.

 

Everyone!!!! We have to be very very nice to Yoshida, we want him to like it here.

Edited April 18, 2023 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[vegasbob]

Now go 20 back from 2001.

 

20 years back from 2001, Manny was 7 years old and Nimmo doesn't exist. Can you sign future children ?

[Bellhorn04]

20 years back from 2001, Manny was 7 years old and Nimmo doesn't exist. Can you sign future children ?

 

Actually if you could sign children of players to some sort of deal at an early age that might be fun. The Jays of course have My Three Sons on their team, and 2 of them are stars. The other is a utility type.