A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Nick]

Our pitching #10-#13 needs an upgrade. Sale, Whitlock and Houck will help.

 

I get that once you're in the playoffs, anything can happen. I'm just not convinced Sox can do it this year even we get a wildcard spot.

 

It's almost time to bring up Rafaela and see if he can play RF for outgoing Verdugo.

[Nick]

Never forget that we had one of our best starters Paxton pitching the game 1 in a crucial series. He got hammered for multiple home runs. We also had a chance to win game 2 but poor baseball plays doomed us.

 

Sale should pitch the openers. But our astute baseball people will insist on wasting his bullets facing minor leaguers for multiple starts.

 

How many games does Story need to get up to speed? Ugh.

[Randy Red Sox]

the fact that the Sox dont even have a P who can come up from AAA and give us a spot start says a lot about our farm system to me.

[Nick]

the fact that the Sox dont even have a P who can come up from AAA and give us a spot start says a lot about our farm system to me.

 

Bernadino, Jacques along with Murphy and Walter have come up. But I cede to your point. Bello, Whitlock, Houck, Schreiber, Winckowski are all under team control for few years.

[moonslav59]

the fact that the Sox dont even have a P who can come up from AAA and give us a spot start says a lot about our farm system to me.

 

We could have started Walter, who seems like a better option that 2 pen games every 5 days, but for some reason they put their trust in Jacquez and Llovera, before them it was Ort and Brasier, and ...

 

The one bright spot of this season was the play from multiple recent prospect call-ups: Bello, Casas, Murphy, Wong and Duran (not so recent on Jarren, but his maturation was.)

 

We also had some minor or brief help from the likes of Bernardino, EValdez and others.

 

We've used 28 pitchers, this year, not counting Reyes. We've used 23 over 6 IP and 20 over 11 IP. We've seen so many hit the IL, some predictable, that I'd need a couple pages to list them all.

 

It certainly a big reason we are struggling has been the amount of pitchers who have sucked or underperformed expectations, but we have seen 14 pitchers wtih 6+IP have an ERA under 4.60 (Sale at 4.58 was doing much better before going back on the IL.)

 

13 pitchers with 6+ IP have ERAs under 4.20, including 5 of our top 6 IP pitchers:

3.79 Bello (102 IP)

4.19 Pivetta (92)

3.62 Crawford (82)

5.05 Houck (68)

2.82 Wink (61)

 

9 of our top 13 pitchers by ERA were under 4.19.

8 of 13 below 3.80

7 of 13 below 3.63

 

The killers have been:

5.05 Houck (5th in IP)

4.58 Sale (7th, although he was coming around)

7.04 Kluber (8th)

5.23 Whitlock (9th)

These guys were widely viewed as among our best 4-5 starters going into the year. It's rather remarkable we have gotten this far with those results, and I bring this up to point to the idea that pitching depth from the farm has actually been a strength, not the weakness you claim it is.

 

Other stinkers down on the list of zIP:

5.40 Bleier (14th

6.26 Ort (15th)

7.29 Brasier (17th)

5.85 Jacques (18th)

7.36 Garza (19th)

6.55 Joely (21st)

That's about 120 IP of horrific pitching. Although some were mop-up innings, and 120 IP is only 12% of all IP, I have to think these 6 lost more than just a few games for us.

 

I'm not going to blame the need to use these guys on injuries, but one could. I do think we stuck with a few way longer than we should have.

 

The major reason our staff has sucked is those top 4 underperforming pitchers, which may wrongly include Sale, due to his first 3 starts. Many who took up the slack of those struggling pitchers, carried this team. It was our pitching depth, including the rise of our middle/long relief pitchers, who have helped us stay above .500, this year.

 

IP Rank Pitcher ERA

2. Pivetta 4.19 (has really improved since April)

3. Crawford 3.62

4. Paxton 3.60

6. Wink 2.82

10. Bernardino 2.72

11. Jansen 3.06

12. Martin 1.53

13. Murphy 1.59

16. Schreiber 3.57

20. Walter 3.07

 

6 of these 10 were considered "pitching depth" on opening day: Paxton, Crawford, Wink, Bernardino (added later), Murphy and Walter..

 

Although Murphy and Walter's sample sizes are rather small (43 IP combined), they have done a fine job when used and may help in the next 2 months.

[moonslav59]

Bernadino, Jacques along with Murphy and Walter have come up. But I cede to your point. Bello, Whitlock, Houck, Schreiber, Winckowski are all under team control for few years.

 

With the Sox staff, it's hard to clearly identify who were considered depth, sice so many pitchers started the year on the IL. Just naming the 5 SP'ers that would have been in the rotation had all been healthy would be the subject of debate. Hell, Bello did not even start the year in the rotation. Houck and Whitlock have been wished to the pen, so many times, it makes my head spin.

 

I think a healthy Sale and Paxton were givens, and Kluber was signed to start. That's 3. Let's just say Whitlock and Houck were the 4th and 5th for argument's sake, although we all know Bello was going to get his chance. If we start with those 5, our SP'er depth has been:

3.79 Bello (1st in IP)

3.62 Crawford (3rd)

4.19 Pivetta (7th)

 

If you start with the top 3 RP'ers before the season started, it looked pretty good and has been pretty good:

3.06 Jansen (11th inn IP)

1.53 Martin (12th)

3.57 Schreiber (16th)

The next 5 were somewhat questionable, especially Brasier, Ort and Kelly, but these two have shined:

3.63 Crawford (3rd in IP and no starting)

2.82 Wink (6th)

 

The depth that replaced Brasier, Ort, and Kelly have seen mixed results:

 

The good:

2.72 Bernardino (10)

 

The bad:

5.40 Bleier (14)

4.91 T Scott (3.2 IP)

4.91 Llovera (3.2 IP)

 

the ugly:

5.85 Jacques (18)

7.36 Garza (19)

6.55 Joely (21)

9.00 Littell (3.0 IP)

22.50 Faria (2.0 IP)

 

[notin]

the fact that the Sox dont even have a P who can come up from AAA and give us a spot start says a lot about our farm system to me.

 

They’ve been using them all year…

[dgalehouse]

Sox are reaching a make or break part of the schedule. A number of games against some of the weakest teams this side of Oakland. This could be their best chance to make a real run at it. If they play well, they could win all or nearly all of the games. If they don't play well ................................

[moonslav59]

They’ve been using them all year…

 

We've used 8 SP'ers, not counting openers. If you go with the idea that Sale, Paxton, Whitlock, Houck and Kluber would have been the starting 5 on opening day, if healthy, then we've gotten 40 starts from the back-ups (18 Bello, 13 Crawford and 9 Pivetta.)

 

Technically, only Bello should be counted as help from the farm, and since Murphy and Walter have yet to start a game, one might think we've gotten little rotation help from the farm. Some might have counted Bello as one of the starting 5 to start the year, so he should not be counted as "help from the farm." (Plus, he graduated by like 2 IP, last year.)

 

I see our farm as producing some mighty important pitchers on the 2023 staff, recently. I'm not getting hung up on terminology or "rookie" cut off IP. We went so many long years until Houck was called up as any sort of significant pitching help from the farm.

 

Recently, we have seen this, so I am not complaining about pitching help from the farm, for a while:

 

Graduation Dates according to SPs:

 

Nothing for a long time then these two in 2021

6/21 Whitlock

9/21 Houck

 

Since AUG '22

Crawford

Winckowski

Bello

Ort & Kelly

Bernardino

Murphy

Jacques

 

I'm sure other teams have done better, but this is a big improvement.

 

According to SP, here are the ETAs of current pitching prospects on the farm:

\

2023 (has some MLB experience, already)

13. Walter

38. Robertson

59. Politi

 

2024:

11. Drohan

21. Mata (would have been ready in '23 had he not got hurt)

27. Fernandez

31. Guerrero

39. Troye

48. I Coffey

51. Liu

 

2025:

8. Wikelman

32. Dobbins

40. Paez

43. Gambrell

 

2026:

7. Perales

25. E R-C

29. Monegro

34. Bastardo

35. Rogers

 

I'll admit, the up and coming list is not eye-popping, but there are a lot of promising pitchers in the system, of which several should take steps forward the remainder of this year and in 2024. My guess is we will feel better about the list, this time in 2024.

[moonslav59]

Sox are reaching a make or break part of the schedule. A number of games against some of the weakest teams this side of Oakland. This could be their best chance to make a real run at it. If they play well, they could win all or nearly all of the games. If they don't play well ................................

 

Agreed. If we don't go at least 7-3 in the next 10, it will be a let down, to me. 8-2 is what we may need to do. 6-4 will show we are in trouble.

 

4 v KCR

3 v DET

3 @ WSH

 

Then, the fun begins with only 6 games vs weaker teams the rest of the way

:

3@ NYY

4@ HOU

3 v LAD

3 v HOU

 

3 @ KCR

 

3 @ TBR

3 v BAL

4 v NYY

3@ TOR

3@ TEX

 

3 v CWS

 

2 v TBR

4@BAL

 

[vegasbob]

Bloom I don’t believe knows how to do that. Hence the third option at the fork in the road concept.

 

I do agree that Bloom does not know how to do it or if he by some chance does, JH is stopping him. There is no serious explanation for the roster and non-upgrade-moves this entire year.

[vegasbob]

Agreed. If we don't go at least 7-3 in the next 10, it will be a let down, to me. 8-2 is what we may need to do. 6-4 will show we are in trouble.

 

4 v KCR

3 v DET

3 @ WSH

 

Then, the fun begins with only 6 games vs weaker teams the rest of the way

:

3@ NYY

4@ HOU

3 v LAD

3 v HOU

 

3 @ KCR

 

3 @ TBR

3 v BAL

4 v NYY

3@ TOR

3@ TEX

 

3 v CWS

 

2 v TBR

4@BAL

 

 

Good assessment. I will follow this one for the next 10 , like all of you, and see how it flies. The August 1-4 start is not that of a resurgent team who had a hot July. Failure here should result in some critical analysis of the management and ownership at all levels

[moonslav59]

Good assessment. I will follow this one for the next 10 , like all of you, and see how it flies. The August 1-4 start is not that of a resurgent team who had a hot July. Failure here should result in some critical analysis of the management and ownership at all levels

 

Agreed.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

For those enraged or depressed, Sam K is here to address all concerns:

 

1. The Dead (and buried) Line: we didn't trade any expiring contracts and will lose all those players when we refuse to extend them, but don't worry -- Chaim will just sign another bunch of band-aids on one-year deals next winter!

 

2. Pitching and Moaning: the front orifice acknowledges the right to bare arms, so we're rolling up our sleeves preparing to dip into the next market. Chaim has his entire brothel of analysts already scouring the dregs of orthopedics for waiver wire and DFA candidates. Our openers are not the problem; we need better bulk guys, and are prepared to make mid-level offers to the best available middle-inning relievers (suitable for matching by their favorite big league cities).

 

3. Last place: is actually First Place if you get the #1 Overall Pick in next summer's Amateur Draft. We welcome all Red Sox fans to watch us down the stretch for another fight with our arch-rivals, the Yankees, for top consolation prize. After all, for a mid-market team that can't spend its way to contention, when it comes to building through the draft to compete, what's worse than finishing fifth? The answer is obvious -- fourth! The answer my friends is blowing in the wins. Tanks for the memories...

 

4. Venmo: to better accommodate our loyal fans, we've set up a new pay portal for instant account drainage re. tix, parking and concessions: @sucker...

[mvp 78]

For those enraged or depressed, Sam K is here to address all concerns:

 

1. The Dead (and buried) Line: we didn't trade any expiring contracts and will lose all those players when we refuse to extend them, but don't worry -- Chaim will just sign another bunch of band-aids on one-year deals next winter!

 

2. Pitching and Moaning: the front orifice acknowledges the right to bare arms, so we're rolling up our sleeves preparing to dip into the next market. Chaim has his entire brothel of analysts already scouring the dregs of orthopedics for waiver wire and DFA candidates. Our openers are not the problem; we need better bulk guys, and are prepared to make mid-level offers to the best available middle-inning relievers (suitable for matching by their favorite big league cities).

 

3. Last place: is actually First Place if you get the #1 Overall Pick in next summer's Amateur Draft. We welcome all Red Sox fans to watch us down the stretch for another fight with our arch-rivals, the Yankees, for top consolation prize. After all, for a mid-market team that can't spend its way to contention, when it comes to building through the draft to compete, what's worse than finishing fifth? The answer is obvious -- fourth! The answer my friends is blowing in the wins. Tanks for the memories...

 

4. Venmo: to better accommodate our loyal fans, we've set up a new pay portal for instant account drainage re. tix, parking and concessions: @sucker...

 

Last place is first place if you get the #1 pick...

 

This team is still 3 games above .500. They would get the 14th pick right now. That makes them boringly average.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Last place is first place if you get the #1 pick...

 

This team is still 3 games above .500. They would get the 14th pick right now. That makes them boringly average.

 

We need to finish bottom 6 to get into the lottery for #1. It will take a complete collapse, but the front office has done its best to initiate that.

 

We can do it, just have to try harder not to try harder...

[notin]

We need to finish bottom 6 to get into the lottery for #1. It will take a complete collapse, but the front office has done its best to initiate that.

 

We can do it, just have to try harder not to try harder...

 

I don’t own a white flag…

[Old Red]

I don’t own a white flag…

 

Nor would I want to.

[mvp 78]

We need to finish bottom 6 to get into the lottery for #1. It will take a complete collapse, but the front office has done its best to initiate that.

 

We can do it, just have to try harder not to try harder...

 

No chance to fall that far. Even if they dealt Turner, Paxton and Duvall, they wouldn't have fallen into bottom 6.

 

The 6th worst team is WAS at 49-63, 15 games under. Sox are 3 games OVER right now. I highly doubt they'd win less than 13 games the rest of the way. That's how bad they'd have to do to get down to that winning %. They are going to go worse than 13-38? No chance.

[mvp 78]

I don’t own a white flag…

 

Standing pat at the past two deadlines was the white flag. They should have either bought or sold. If the prices were so high, they should have sold for the future.

[Old Red]

Standing pat at the past two deadlines was the white flag. They should have either bought or sold. If the prices were so high, they should have sold for the future.

 

Mr. Indecisive didn’t know what to do.

[notin]

Standing pat at the past two deadlines was the white flag. They should have either bought or sold. If the prices were so high, they should have sold for the future.

 

At the very least, he should have learned from last year.

 

Unless the overriding attitude was that the returning players will save the season. But even then, some stopgap help would have made more sense…

[Old Red]

At the very least, he should have learned from last year.

 

Unless the overriding attitude was that the returning players will save the season. But even then, some stopgap help would have made more sense…

 

Learned from last year? Bloom probably thinks he did a good job last year.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

At the very least, he should have learned from last year.

 

Unless the overriding attitude was that the returning players will save the season. But even then, some stopgap help would have made more sense…

 

I just... can't... part... with... any of my two dozen 5'10, 165 lb middle infield prospects!

[notin]

I just... can't... part... with... any of my two dozen 5'10, 165 lb middle infield prospects!

 

You keep clinging to those guys as if they were in high demand. Do you really think a struggling David Paulino topped any wish lists anywhere?

 

Nearly (if not every) player dealt for a pitcher was in AA or higher. Think Hamilton was good enough to land Montgomery and Stratton? Or should the Sox have just leapt straight to Mayer?

[mvp 78]

I just... can't... part... with... any of my two dozen 5'10, 165 lb middle infield prospects!

 

That wasn't the price tag for starting pitching at this deadline. Which trade would you have done that you could easily slide these prospects into.

 

Especially, now that Paulino is ranked 24th in the system, not 9th.

[mvp 78]

You keep clinging to those guys as if they were in high demand. Do you really think a struggling David Paulino topped any wish lists anywhere?

 

Nearly (if not every) player dealt for a pitcher was in AA or higher. Think Hamilton was good enough to land Montgomery and Stratton? Or should the Sox have just leapt straight to Mayer?

 

Wrong Paulino.

 

Eddinson.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Nearly every poster on this forum -- not to mention Red Sox players themselves -- acknowledged the need for pitching help at the deadline: starters, back-end relievers -- hey, even a better freaking bulk guy would have been better than what Boston trotted out there this weekend.

 

To get a decent pitcher at the deadline (and I'm not including Verlander or Scherzer), the price was often a club's prospects in the #10-20 range. The Red Sox' farm system, recently ranked as high as #5 by some experts, has a surplus of middle infielders -- 13 of their top 28 by my count.

 

I don't know if any of the Sox prospects were that attractive -- maybe they're vastly overrated by their own organization -- but don't pretend you weren't disappointed that Bloom couldn't even at least acquire a relief pitcher better than Llovera or Joe Jacques.

 

And if it's true that nobody wanted any Sox prospects except our top 5, then that's just another indictment of Bloom the rebuilder...

[Old Red]

Nearly every poster on this forum -- not to mention Red Sox players themselves -- acknowledged the need for pitching help at the deadline: starters, back-end relievers -- hey, even a better freaking bulk guy would have been better than what Boston trotted out there this weekend.

 

To get a decent pitcher at the deadline (and I'm not including Verlander or Scherzer), the price was often a club's prospects in the #10-20 range. The Red Sox' farm system, recently ranked as high as #5 by some experts, has a surplus of middle infielders -- 13 of their top 28 by my count.

 

I don't know if any of the Sox prospects were that attractive -- maybe they're vastly overrated by their own organization -- but don't pretend you weren't disappointed that Bloom couldn't even at least acquire a relief pitcher better than Llovera or Joe Jacques.

 

And if it's true that nobody wanted any Sox prospects except our top 5, then that's just another indictment of Bloom the rebuilder...

Oh No Shaugnessy even mentioned Fangraphs had the farm ranking at #3, and to pop the champagne corks. In the meantime the big club is slip sliding away.

[mvp 78]

Nearly every poster on this forum -- not to mention Red Sox players themselves -- acknowledged the need for pitching help at the deadline: starters, back-end relievers -- hey, even a better freaking bulk guy would have been better than what Boston trotted out there this weekend.

 

To get a decent pitcher at the deadline (and I'm not including Verlander or Scherzer), the price was often a club's prospects in the #10-20 range. The Red Sox' farm system, recently ranked as high as #5 by some experts, has a surplus of middle infielders -- 13 of their top 28 by my count.

 

I don't know if any of the Sox prospects were that attractive -- maybe they're vastly overrated by their own organization -- but don't pretend you weren't disappointed that Bloom couldn't even at least acquire a relief pitcher better than Llovera or Joe Jacques.

 

And if it's true that nobody wanted any Sox prospects except our top 5, then that's just another indictment of Bloom the rebuilder...

 

Bloom said he only wanted to get controllable starters.

 

He reached out on Cease and the ChiSox wanted Bello.

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/btv-2023-trade-deadline-roundup/

 

The trades the Sox could have done:

 

Yarbrough - Yuck

Flaherty - traded for value of Drohan or Walter/Alcantara

Lorenzen - traded for value of Romero or Drohan/Meidroth

Hill - traded for value of Wikelman/Castro

Civale - value of someone better than Yorke, but MLB ready, Sox don't have that guy

Lynn - Yuck

Giolito/Lopez - value of Yorke and Rafaela

 

Which of those trades are you jumping on? Hill and Flaherty are the only 10/20 trades listed. If they trade for Hill (should have just signed him last offseason) and Flaherty, how much does it improve their chances?