A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

The willingness for a Tampa Bay grad to field this poor a defense was the most shocking part of the Bloom era.

 

The rotation beats it out, in my book.

[moonslav59]

I'd argue that with his bad, you could survive ONE minus defender on the infield ... but when you add the league's worst defensive situation at SS pre-Story and there is really nowhere to hide.

 

True dat!

[Maxbialystock]

I'd argue that with his bad, you could survive ONE minus defender on the infield ... but when you add the league's worst defensive situation at SS pre-Story and there is really nowhere to hide.

 

Story has been good for the infield defense, but he sure hasn't helped the Sox win games.

 

Little known fact: the Sox had a better won-lost record with worthless, rotten, stinking Kike at SS than they have had with Story at SS.

 

Historically, especially during the John Henry era which so far includes four WS wins, the Sox have preferred good bats at every position over good gloves. Ideally, of course, the good bat comes with a good glove, but the bat has priority.

[sk7326]

Story has been good for the infield defense, but he sure hasn't helped the Sox win games.

 

Little known fact: the Sox had a better won-lost record with worthless, rotten, stinking Kike at SS than they have had with Story at SS.

 

Historically, especially during the John Henry era which so far includes four WS wins, the Sox have preferred good bats at every position over good gloves. Ideally, of course, the good bat comes with a good glove, but the bat has priority.

 

Boston loves its bats. BUT, looking at the 4 WS winners. I'll use Baseball Ref's Zone Fielding Runs and Fangraphs team Def rating

 

2004: BBref 13th, FG 29th

2007: BBRef 1st, FG 14th

2013: BBRef 8th, FG 18th

2018: BBRef 7th, FG 11th

 

2023: BBRef 23rd, FG 30th

 

So yeah, you can overcome this level of defensive putridity ... if you have the 2004 Red Sox offense or starting pitching. But the Red Sox for the most part were at least decent at fielding the ball on their good teams.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Boston loves its bats. BUT, looking at the 4 WS winners. I'll use Baseball Ref's Zone Fielding Runs and Fangraphs team Def rating

 

2004: BBref 13th, FG 29th

2007: BBRef 1st, FG 14th

2013: BBRef 8th, FG 18th

2018: BBRef 7th, FG 11th

 

2023: BBRef 23rd, FG 30th

 

So yeah, you can overcome this level of defensive putridity ... if you have the 2004 Red Sox offense or starting pitching. But the Red Sox for the most part were at least decent at fielding the ball on their good teams.

 

And don't forget, the '04 Cursebreakers had a GM who actually did something to make the club much better on D at the trade deadline... those numbers reflect overall seasons, but the Sox improved in the second half with acquired Gold Gloves at shortstop and at first base (the latter in later innings).

[moonslav59]

Defense is one area you can win or lose games over.

 

Sure, other areas are more important, but that does not render defense meaningless or something that should be ignored.

[mvp 78]

The rotation beats it out, in my book.

 

IDK, it was the worst defense in the league by a country mile.

[Hugh2]

IDK, it was the worst defense in the league by a country mile.

 

To some extent, the pitching has to get better with better defense. Suppose there's more room for growth than most when you have the worst defense.

[moonslav59]

IDK, it was the worst defense in the league by a country mile.

 

True, and the awful D makes the pitching look worse than it really was.

 

Despite Story's return, our overall OAA numbers are still frightening:

 

-50 BOS

-30 CIN

-26 MIA

-22 CWS

-17 OAK

-13 ATL

-13 LAA

 

We are still worse than the 3rd and 4th worst team's combined (26+22=48)

We are still barely better than the worst 3, 4 and 5 combined (22+17+13=52)

[sk7326]

IDK, it was the worst defense in the league by a country mile.

 

Right. Like you look at what Tampa did. They play in one of the most pitcher friendly ballparks in the league - so they leaned into it with great defense and it not only helps their great pitching prospects, but allowed guys like James Shields to play up.

[moonslav59]

Right. Like you look at what Tampa did. They play in one of the most pitcher friendly ballparks in the league - so they leaned into it with great defense and it not only helps their great pitching prospects, but allowed guys like James Shields to play up.

 

A long standing Sox tradition seems to have been that we can lean into having a big bat but poor defensive LF'er, because the short LF allows for limited range to be less important, and the wall can stop the b all from rolling forever away from the bozo defender we put out there.

 

I'm not sure it always worked.

 

Conversely, we have often had plus defenders in RF.

 

I'm not sure why SS defense has rarely seemed to b e a high priority,

[sk7326]

A long standing Sox tradition seems to have been that we can lean into having a big bat but poor defensive LF'er, because the short LF allows for limited range to be less important, and the wall can stop the b all from rolling forever away from the bozo defender we put out there.

 

I'm not sure it always worked.

 

Conversely, we have often had plus defenders in RF.

 

I'm not sure why SS defense has rarely seemed to b e a high priority,

 

Well LF - even with other clubs - has often been seen with 1B as the position to put a big bat if you couldn't DH him. At Fenway it sort of makes sense since there just aren't that many plays to be made in LF.

 

As far as SS goes - it's not like the team hasn't tried, though they have rarely had the classic all defense, no hit variety.

 

Nomar's defense was pretty good until injuries caught up

Stephen Drew was a solid SS

Marco Scutaro was fine the year they had him

 

Bogaerts grew into it - and the team waited it out because of the bat. But Bogaerts is a good defensive SS now.

 

And as we've seen earlier - the best Red Sox teams were largely solid defensively. And yes - choosing "solid" while focusing on great offense is a sensible way to build a team that plays at Fenway. But whatever the argument - what they schlepped out in 2023 was way below that.

[moonslav59]

Well LF - even with other clubs - has often been seen with 1B as the position to put a big bat if you couldn't DH him. At Fenway it sort of makes sense since there just aren't that many plays to be made in LF.

 

As far as SS goes - it's not like the team hasn't tried, though they have rarely had the classic all defense, no hit variety.

 

Nomar's defense was pretty good until injuries caught up

Stephen Drew was a solid SS

Marco Scutaro was fine the year they had him

 

Bogaerts grew into it - and the team waited it out because of the bat. But Bogaerts is a good defensive SS now.

 

And as we've seen earlier - the best Red Sox teams were largely solid defensively. And yes - choosing "solid" while focusing on great offense is a sensible way to build a team that plays at Fenway. But whatever the argument - what they schlepped out in 2023 was way below that.

 

Those SSs seem from so long ago! (Gonzo, reese and Cora, too.)

[Bellhorn04]

Well LF - even with other clubs - has often been seen with 1B as the position to put a big bat if you couldn't DH him. At Fenway it sort of makes sense since there just aren't that many plays to be made in LF.

 

Does that square up with Yoshida's defensive metrics this year?

[moonslav59]

Here are the worst LF'ers in 2023, according to OAA:

-19 Schwarber

-12 Profar

-11 Beni

-9 Yoshi

-9 Soto

-8 de la Cruz

 

It shows Yoshida at 0 on balls hit "in" and -2 going "back," so that jives with the short wall preventing missed plays in those directions. He's -4 to the left and -4 to the right. My guess is, if he played in Yankee Stadium, he might be -6 back, -4 in, -4 to his right and -6 to his left.

[dgalehouse]

It has been a forgone conclusion for a while, but a Toronto win tonight would officially, mathematically eliminate the Sox from the third wild card.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It has been a forgone conclusion for a while, but a Toronto win tonight would officially, mathematically eliminate the Sox from the third wild card.

 

Most of us last spring - coming off another last-place finish - would've taken a season of staying in contention through the third week of September.

 

We don't know Alex Cora's fate yet with this club, but don't forget he somehow used openers every other day for a month in July when the Sox played the best baseball in the majors, before upper management totally abandoned ship and mocked the roster they assembled as "underdogs."

[moonslav59]

Most of us last spring - coming off another last-place finish - would've taken a season of staying in contention through the third week of September.

 

We don't know Alex Cora's fate yet with this club, but don't forget he somehow used openers every other day for a month in July when the Sox played the best baseball in the majors, before upper management totally abandoned ship and mocked the roster they assembled as "underdogs."

 

The idea that players about to return from the IL is as good as a trade is a fallacy.

 

The new guy better embrace this truth.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The idea that players about to return from the IL is as good as a trade is a fallacy.

 

The new guy better embrace this truth.

 

That was just the front office doing its duty to delay, deflect and distort.

 

None of us believed them, but judging by announced attendance, they're still duping the dubious.

[notin]

The idea that players about to return from the IL is as good as a trade is a fallacy.

 

The new guy better embrace this truth.

 

It’s not about embracing the truth. They told us players coming back were their re-enforcements. It wasn’t like they were dishonest about it. If anything, Bloom put his cards on the table far too often.

 

I just want the GM/CBO to not give up while not being stupid. Although at the very least, he can’t be afraid to make a stupid move once in a while…

[mvp 78]

Most of us last spring - coming off another last-place finish - would've taken a season of staying in contention through the third week of September.

 

We don't know Alex Cora's fate yet with this club, but don't forget he somehow used openers every other day for a month in July when the Sox played the best baseball in the majors, before upper management totally abandoned ship and mocked the roster they assembled as "underdogs."

 

Ownership believes they have a long term position for him somewhere if not manager. He’s not leaving the org IMO.

[moonslav59]

It’s not about embracing the truth. They told us players coming back were their re-enforcements. It wasn’t like they were dishonest about it. If anything, Bloom put his cards on the table far too often.

 

I just want the GM/CBO to not give up while not being stupid. Although at the very least, he can’t be afraid to make a stupid move once in a while…

 

According to many, here, Bloom made plenty of stupid moves.

 

I think we all agree, he did not do enough- either buying or selling, or both.

 

Not doing anything seemed to be his calling card.

[notin]

According to many, here, Bloom made plenty of stupid moves.

 

I think we all agree, he did not do enough- either buying or selling, or both.

 

Not doing anything seemed to be his calling card.

 

 

He made some stupid moves and some moves that didn’t work out. That’s part of the job. Any GM that never makes a mistake is a GM that didn’t make enough moves.

 

The good thing about Bloom is even his worst moves only impacted one season…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He made some stupid moves and some moves that didn’t work out. That’s part of the job. Any GM that never makes a mistake is a GM that didn’t make enough moves.

 

The good thing about Bloom is even his worst moves only impacted one season…

 

The bad thing is Bloom's worst moves impacted one season in 2020, one season in 2021, one season in 2022, and one season in 2023.

 

The worst thing about being a Red Sox fan in those seasons is if you were a Red Sox fan in those seasons. That will be the memory of this era for diehards in decades to come.

 

Hopefully, someone like Roman Anthony -- not easy draft picks like Mayer or Teel -- will become a star, and improve the future legacy of Bloom in Boston.

[moonslav59]

He made some stupid moves and some moves that didn’t work out. That’s part of the job. Any GM that never makes a mistake is a GM that didn’t make enough moves.

 

The good thing about Bloom is even his worst moves only impacted one season…

 

True, and when you think about his very worst moves, they were not only just "1 year hurts," none were massive overpays, in terms of money or trade returns:

 

Renfroe for JBJ, DHam & Binelas

$10M/1 for Kluber

$10M/1 for Richards (who still managed a 1.1 fWAR)

 

Most of the worst fWARs were minor deals gone bad:

-0.8 Kluber (not so "minor""

-0.6 Robles (had done well in '21)

-0.5 Diekman (dumped most of his salary and got back McGuire)

-0.4 Godley & Danish

-0.2 Danish & Brewer

-0.2 Sawamura & Ort

 

-1.6 Kike 2023

-0.7 Cordero '21

-0.4 Arrojo '23, JBJ '22

-0.3 Downs '22, Marwin '21, DHam '23

-0.2 Story '23, Santana '21, Cordero '22, Arauz '20, Pham '21

-0.1 Peraza '20

[Hugh2]

True, and when you think about his very worst moves, they were not only just "1 year hurts," none were massive overpays, in terms of money or trade returns:

 

Renfroe for JBJ, DHam & Binelas

$10M/1 for Kluber

$10M/1 for Richards (who still managed a 1.1 fWAR)

 

Most of the worst fWARs were minor deals gone bad:

-0.8 Kluber (not so "minor""

-0.6 Robles (had done well in '21)

-0.5 Diekman (dumped most of his salary and got back McGuire)

-0.4 Godley & Danish

-0.2 Danish & Brewer

-0.2 Sawamura & Ort

 

-1.6 Kike 2023

-0.7 Cordero '21

-0.4 Arrojo '23, JBJ '22

-0.3 Downs '22, Marwin '21, DHam '23

-0.2 Story '23, Santana '21, Cordero '22, Arauz '20, Pham '21

-0.1 Peraza '20

 

This is what I was saying the other day. Bloom didn't have an above-average number of bad moves, he actually had quite a lot of good moves, just never good big moves.

 

If Bloom was a ballplayer he'd be the all singles guy. The average would look ok but then you'd see that sub .700 ops.

[Bellhorn04]

He made some stupid moves and some moves that didn’t work out. That’s part of the job. Any GM that never makes a mistake is a GM that didn’t make enough moves.

 

The good thing about Bloom is even his worst moves only impacted one season…

 

Not if Story and/or Yoshida end up total busts.

[moonslav59]

This is what I was saying the other day. Bloom didn't have an above-average number of bad moves, he actually had quite a lot of good moves, just never good big moves.

 

If Bloom was a ballplayer he'd be the all singles guy. The average would look ok but then you'd see that sub .700 ops.

 

True, but I'm not sure judging a guy on so few "big moves" is all that fair.

 

Many feel the Betts trade was forced, and having to add half-Price hurt the return and limited the choices of teams to deal with to just 1.

 

The Beni trade was not all "that big," although at the time, many felt Beni was poised to improve and be close to a star.

 

The Story and Yoshida signings might be the only two big moves we should count as big.

 

Jansen at $16M x 2 might count, for some.

 

Both Story and Yoshida are not off to good starts, but both still have time to improve on the outlook.

[notin]

The bad thing is Bloom's worst moves impacted one season in 2020, one season in 2021, one season in 2022, and one season in 2023.

 

The worst thing about being a Red Sox fan in those seasons is if you were a Red Sox fan in those seasons. That will be the memory of this era for diehards in decades to come.

 

Hopefully, someone like Roman Anthony -- not easy draft picks like Mayer or Teel -- will become a star, and improve the future legacy of Bloom in Boston.

 

But a lot of his bad moves were far from catastrophic. JBJ didn’t work out but also didn’t last a full season. And the payment the next year didn’t impact the team since they were well under the tax threshold.

 

Now how many years were impacted by Price and Sale? The two have combined for nearly $160 starting in 2020 and have kicked in less than 200 IP in that time.

 

Some of this Nola/Snell/Yamamoto talk looks like attempting to repeat these mistakes…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

But a lot of his bad moves were far from catastrophic. JBJ didn’t work out but also didn’t last a full season. And the payment the next year didn’t impact the team since they were well under the tax threshold.

 

Now how many years were impacted by Price and Sale? The two have combined for nearly $160 starting in 2020 and have kicked in less than 200 IP in that time.

 

Some of this Nola/Snell/Yamamoto talk looks like attempting to repeat these mistakes…

 

I agree with this entire post. That's why I think the quickest -- and safer budget way -- for a new boss to turn the Sox back into a contender is to trade prospects for good starting pitchers who may still be a year or two away from free agency, and then immediately extend the new #1 or #2 to longterm deals... (I realize that's living in the Pedro past, but if it happened once...)

 

Never know -- maybe the idea of blowing out an elbow and losing a fleetload of mullah like Ohtani just did would appeal to an arm from the Brewers or Marlins.