A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

Ya, but... in '21, IKF played for Texas -- which lost 102, with the third-worst runs allowed and ERA. Wonder how many of his extra assists were on relay throws, gunning out baserunners trying to advance?

 

maybe 5-10 more than the norm?

[moonslav59]

TOR has now passed TEX, and we lost a chance to gain on TEX and stay even with TOR. Unless things change, quickly, I don't see TEX passing HOU, so we need to pass TEX & TOR. SEA could be passed, too.

 

Red's Standing Update

 

77-61 SEA

77-62 TOR

 

76-62 TEX -0.5 from WC

72-67 BOS -4.5 from TEX and -5.0 from TOR (-5.5 from SEA)

69-69 NYY -2.5 from BOS

 

24 games to go is making this look extreme!

 

[Bellhorn04]

TOR has now passed TEX, and we lost a chance to gain on TEX and stay even with TOR. Unless things change, quickly, I don't see TEX passing HOU, so we need to pass TEX & TOR. SEA could be passed, too.

 

Red's Standing Update

 

77-61 SEA

77-62 TOR

 

76-62 TEX -0.5 from WC

72-67 BOS -4.5 from TEX and -5.0 from TOR (-5.5 from SEA)

69-69 NYY -2.5 from BOS

 

24 games to go is making this look extreme!

 

 

It's just the final tease, moon.

[mvp 78]

TOR has now passed TEX, and we lost a chance to gain on TEX and stay even with TOR. Unless things change, quickly, I don't see TEX passing HOU, so we need to pass TEX & TOR. SEA could be passed, too.

 

Red's Standing Update

 

77-61 SEA

77-62 TOR

 

76-62 TEX -0.5 from WC

72-67 BOS -4.5 from TEX and -5.0 from TOR (-5.5 from SEA)

69-69 NYY -2.5 from BOS

 

24 games to go is making this look extreme!

 

 

Red Sox have NO chance. 23 games to go and 5 behind is insurmountable for this team. They would need to go 18-5 or better to make it close. It's not going to happen.

[notin]

Red Sox have NO chance. 23 games to go and 5 behind is insurmountable for this team. They would need to go 18-5 or better to make it close. It's not going to happen.

 

Hey larger deficits have been overcome in less time…

[Hugh2]

I'm not so convince Nomar was ever a big plus defender. He made those running, twirling plays from the hole that looked impressive, when I'm not so sure they were outs most SSs made look easier.

 

BTW, here are the plays made from 1997-2022:

ASS/PO= Plays (innings)

2582/1473= 4055 ARod in 7809 (.519 plays per inning)

2526/906= 3432 Vizquel in 7778 (.441/inning)

 

2301/1364= 3,665 Jeter in 8092 (.453 per inning/ .284 assists per inn.)

2132/1164= 3,295 Nomar in 6481 (.508 per inning/.329 per inn.)

Nomar did better per game, but not by all that much and way worse than the best.

 

I always said, ARod should not have changed positions for Jeter, a SS who had one of MLB's worst DRS numbers in history at SS.

 

 

Who cares about Arod, Nomar was clearly a much better fielding short stop than Jeter, until he got injured.

 

Look at peak Nomar from 97-00. He was clearly better than Jeter, and if we recall that was the consensus around baseball back then outside on New York at least.

 

All respect to the captain, but the Jeter shine don’t rub on this Sox fan.

[moonslav59]

Who cares about Arod, Nomar was clearly a much better fielding short stop than Jeter, until he got injured.

 

Look at peak Nomar from 97-00. He was clearly better than Jeter, and if we recall that was the consensus around baseball back then outside on New York at least.

 

All respect to the captain, but the Jeter shine don’t rub on this Sox fan.

 

I've been saying jeter was the worst SS on defense in my lifetime.

 

My point was that Nomar was over-rated.

 

My numbers showed Nmarw as better than Jeter.

[moonslav59]

It's just the final tease, moon.

 

I know the odds are very long.

 

Losing, last night was not a tease. Almost winning was.

[mvp 78]

Hey larger deficits have been overcome in less time…

 

Not by a team without a reliable rotation and horrible defense.

[mvp 78]

I've been saying jeter was the worst SS on defense in my lifetime.

 

My point was that Nomar was over-rated.

 

My numbers showed Nmarw as better than Jeter.

 

Wow.

[moonslav59]

Red Sox have NO chance. 23 games to go and 5 behind is insurmountable for this team. They would need to go 18-5 or better to make it close. It's not going to happen.

 

Start by sweeping TEX and TOR 6-0 and we are right in this thing-- you know, the whole 2 game swing thing on every game played with each team!

 

LOL

 

6-0 in those games and 11-6 in the others andwe may still squeek in..

[moonslav59]

Wow.

 

ON D.

 

He did not need to run, jump and twirl to make those plays from the hole.

 

He was a plus defender from '97 to '00 or '01 but was not a great defender.

[mvp 78]

Start by sweeping TEX and TOR 6-0 and we are right in this thing-- you know, the whole 2 game swing thing on every game played with each team!

 

LOL

 

6-0 in those games and 11-6 in the others andwe may still squeek in..

 

No such thing as a two game swing, so I can see how your scenario is clearly fantasy. Thank you for clearing that up for me.

[Nick]

Now there’s a 21-year-old right-handed prospect in Portland who has been up to 99 mph with his four-seamer and considers his changeup (with fade) his best secondary pitch. Do the Red Sox have another Bello-like talent in Wikelman Gonzalez?

 

Gonzalez dominated again Saturday, not allowing a hit until the sixth inning in Portland’s 5-1 win over Somerset. He fired 6 shutout innings to improve to 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in eight starts with the Sea Dogs since being promoted from High-A Greenville on Aug. 8. Opponents are batting just .147 against him and he’s averaging 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings (Bello averaged 12.0 strikeouts per nine innings with Portland).

 

The Red Sox undoubtedly will select Gonzalez to their 40-man roster this November to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. Next February will be his first big league spring training camp.

 

Help is on the way.....

[mvp 78]

I would say that the 217 BABIP is awfully low and the 4.91 BB/9 is still a little too high. He has had some good results, but we'll have to see how he pitches next year. His numbers in the first half in Greenville weren't all that great. The talent is there, but he has to put it all together.

[moonslav59]

I would say that the 217 BABIP is awfully low and the 4.91 BB/9 is still a little too high. He has had some good results, but we'll have to see how he pitches next year. His numbers in the first half in Greenville weren't all that great. The talent is there, but he has to put it all together.

 

We kept hoping DHern could lower his BB/9, but he never did. Other have.

 

Wikelman has nasty stuff, but he needs to control it better.

 

I remain hopeful, perhaps to a fault.

[moonslav59]

No such thing as a two game swing, so I can see how your scenario is clearly fantasy. Thank you for clearing that up for me.

 

I've already proven you wrong, yet you persist.

 

Two teams are tied and play each other. After the game, either team A will be up one game or down one game. This is fact, and that's a 2 game "swing."

 

Yes, team A or B will only be one game ahead or behind, so in that sense, it's just one game, but the differential between team A or team B winning makes for aa 2 game swing. Why is that so hard for you to grasp?

 

I get your point. Team A wins, team B goes from tied to -1. That's one game, but the only other alternative was Team B wins and is up 1 games. The differential is 2 games, not one, between the two opposing results.

 

Simple math.

[mvp 78]

I've already proven you wrong, yet you persist.

 

Two teams are tied and play each other. After the game, either team A will be up one game or down one game. This is fact, and that's a 2 game "swing."

 

It's a one game swing in the standings. Sox either go up by one or down by one.

[moonslav59]

It's a one game swing in the standings. Sox either go up by one or down by one.

 

I'm not sure why you don't get it.

 

You forget zero is a number. +1 vs -1 is 2 numbers apart.

 

Yes, one game difference, but when you play head to head, its one game up for one team plus one down for the other- a 2 game "SWING!"

 

Two teams- both 70-70 play each other. After the game played one is 71-70 (team A) and the other is 70-71 (team . Yes, team A is up one game. I get it.

 

However, if the other team had one, Team A is 70-71 and Team B is 71-70, and team Bi is one up NOT one down! That's a two game swing based on one game played.

 

Do you deny the differential is not two games based on who wins?

 

There is no way both team will be 71-70 or 70-71 after the game played.

[Randy Red Sox]

Now there’s a 21-year-old right-handed prospect in Portland who has been up to 99 mph with his four-seamer and considers his changeup (with fade) his best secondary pitch. Do the Red Sox have another Bello-like talent in Wikelman Gonzalez?

 

Gonzalez dominated again Saturday, not allowing a hit until the sixth inning in Portland’s 5-1 win over Somerset. He fired 6 shutout innings to improve to 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in eight starts with the Sea Dogs since being promoted from High-A Greenville on Aug. 8. Opponents are batting just .147 against him and he’s averaging 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings (Bello averaged 12.0 strikeouts per nine innings with Portland).

 

 

 

The Red Sox undoubtedly will select Gonzalez to their 40-man roster this November to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. Next February will be his first big league spring training camp.

 

Help is on the way.....

 

this does sound promising

[moonslav59]

realistically, we are toast.

[oldtimer]

realistically, we are toast.

That has been clear for some time. Expecting the Sox to somehow win the majority of their remaining games was more hopeful then realistic. That is why it is smart to get a look at our prospects to assist in the evaluation for 2024.

[moonslav59]

To keep Red happy:

 

Sox

-5.0 from TOR & TEX (loss in progress)

+1.5 NYY

 

[oldtimer]

Did you notice Larry Vanover made a season high 29 miss calls at the plate last night, Long past the time for technology assisted ball and strike calls.

[moonslav59]

Did you notice Larry Vanover made a season high 29 miss calls at the plate last night, Long past the time for technology assisted ball and strike calls.

 

If that is not reason enough, what will ever be?

[moonslav59]

What the hell is going on with our luck?

 

Zack Littell goes 8 IP for the Rays allowing 5 hits and just 1 run (1BB & 4K!)

 

Luis Castillo out-dueled him and SEA won 1-0.

 

The Tigers are up 10-3, late on the Yanks, for all those who felt they are better than us.

 

(They may still prove to be.)

 

[moonslav59]

MLB OPS Leaders with 290+ PAs (Sox Players)

 

14. Duvall .891

24. Casas .868

34. Devers .847

48. Turner .828

49. Duran .828

75. Yoshida .806

99. Verdugo .790

 

Ex-Sox

4. Betts 1.017

29. JD M .856

57. Schwarber .820

110. Pham .784

145. Bogey .755

172. Renfroe .728 (Same as Reyes)

190. Moncada .711

200. Beni .700

252. Margot .654

261. Kike .625

271. Vaz .607

[notin]

What the hell is going on with our luck?

 

Zack Littell goes 8 IP for the Rays allowing 5 hits and just 1 run (1BB & 4K!)

 

Luis Castillo out-dueled him and SEA won 1-0.

 

The Tigers are up 10-3, late on the Yanks, for all those who felt they are better than us.

 

(They may still prove to be.)

 

 

 

Luck?

 

The Sox released Littell after 3IP. Let’s not confuse impatience with bad luck…

[Nick]

MLB OPS Leaders with 290+ PAs (Sox Players)

 

14. Duvall .891

24. Casas .868

34. Devers .847

48. Turner .828

49. Duran .828

75. Yoshida .806

99. Verdugo .790

 

Ex-Sox

4. Betts 1.017

29. JD M .856

57. Schwarber .820

110. Pham .784

145. Bogey .755

172. Renfroe .728 (Same as Reyes)

190. Moncada .711

200. Beni .700

252. Margot .654

261. Kike .625

271. Vaz .607

 

Just think having Vaz and his 3 year deal. We dodged a bullet.

 

Or having a 5 year $75M deal for Beni.

 

Hopefully we don't bring back Kike under any circumstances.

 

9 more years of Xander? No thanks.

[moonslav59]

Luck?

 

The Sox released Littell after 3IP. Let’s not confuse impatience with bad luck…

 

Either way, the opposite is happening to us than what the Rays seem to do.