A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Maxbialystock]

I was thinking of starting a Part III thread, as I have done in the past, right after the trade deadline, but this one was so uneventful, for the Red Sox perspective, that I won't do it, this year.

 

We may see some major changes to the 26 man roster in the next few weeks, as Urias joins the team, Schreiber and McgUire start playing more, and players start coming off the IL.

 

A 100% healthy team would create some difficult decisions to be made, but that's not a bad thing, and besides, has that ever happened in Sox history?

 

It looks like Story may join the club in a week or so. Arroyo, Reyes and Chang are out of options, but apparently Urias has one remaining.

 

Sale should be the first SP'er to come back- maybe in 10-15 days. Jacques can be demoted or Llovera DFA'd to make room on the 26 or 40, as he is on the 60 day IL. (Ort is on the 60 day, too, so DFA'ing him does not free up a 40 man roster slot.

 

Houck and Whitlock's ETAs are a bit murky. Some say September, but apparently they are throwing pen sessions and may start rehabbing at any moment, and could possibly join the big club in 15-25 days, or so.

 

Joely's return might cause a squeeze, as he has no options (DFA Bleier?)

 

Kluber could easily be DFA'd once he comes off the IL.

 

Is this the best 26 man roster?

 

13 Pitchers:

SP: Bello, Paxton, Sale, Crawford, Paxton

LR: Whitlock, Houck

SR: Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, Winckowski, Bernardino, Joely

(DFA'd due to out of options: Kluber, Bleier, Llovera)

 

13 Everyday Player(DFA due to out of options: Reyes)

C: Wong, McGuire

1B: Casas

2B: Arroyo (0 options)

SS: Story, Chang (0 options)

3B: Devers

LF: Yoshida, Refsnyder

CF: Duran, Duvall

RF: Dugo

DH: Turner

 

The rest of the 40 (players with options):

P: Murphy, Walter, Robertson, Mata (to 60 day IL?), Jacques (DFA?), Garza (DFA?)

C: none

1B: Dalbec

2B: EValdez (to 60 day IL?)

SS: DHam

3B: Urias (SS/2B) (to 26 and DFA or phantom IL Chang until Sept call-ups?)

OF: Abreu, Rafaela

 

That's only 12 players.

Do we demote Bernardino, so we can keep Bleier? (that makes 13 in the minors)

 

If we can get healthy or even just 24-25 top men healthy, we can be a force.

 

This could be our line-up:

 

1. Duran CF/LF

2. Yoshida LF/DH

3. Turner DH/2B/1B

4. Devers 3B

5. Casas 1B

6. Story SS

7. Dugo RF/Duvall RF or CF/Refsnyder LF

8. Wong/McGuire C

9. Arroyo/Reyes/Chang/Urias 2B

 

Hah! I just now read this--after having said almost exactly the same thing on 2 other threads. I think Sale, who started yesterday at Worcester and went 40 pitches (0 runs, 1 hit, 2 BB's, 3 K's), will be back for the Seattle series, August 11-13, and that Whitlock and Houck will be back about 10 days after that.

 

My conclusion, of course, is that the real reason for no big trades is that, with the returns of Story, Sale, Houck, and Whitlock, this is a pretty good Sox team. It's not as good as the 2018 and 2013 teams, both of which acquired starters (Eovaldi in 2018 and Peavy in 2013) for the stretch run, but good enough to compete and to get even better in 2024.

[Hugh2]

Noah Song to be put on waivers. If he goes unclaimed he will return to Boston.

[notin]

Hah! I just now read this--after having said almost exactly the same thing on 2 other threads. I think Sale, who started yesterday at Worcester and went 40 pitches (0 runs, 1 hit, 2 BB's, 3 K's), will be back for the Seattle series, August 11-13, and that Whitlock and Houck will be back about 10 days after that.

 

My conclusion, of course, is that the real reason for no big trades is that, with the returns of Story, Sale, Houck, and Whitlock, this is a pretty good Sox team. It's not as good as the 2018 and 2013 teams, both of which acquired starters (Eovaldi in 2018 and Peavy in 2013) for the stretch run, but good enough to compete and to get even better in 2024.

 

 

The big problem is on those 10-15 days when everyone comes back, the Sox do play 9-13 games. Hopefully they can maintain striking distance…

[notin]

Noah Song to be put on waivers. If he goes unclaimed he will return to Boston.

 

He was DFAd a few days ago. Given his Rule 5 status, he’s very likely to clear.

 

But he’s still no closer to being an MLB pitcher…

[Bellhorn04]

He was DFAd a few days ago. Given his Rule 5 status, he’s very likely to clear.

 

But he’s still no closer to being an MLB pitcher…

 

But if we can get him back, maybe we can develop him into one. Seems worth a shot.

[Maxbialystock]

The big problem is on those 10-15 days when everyone comes back, the Sox do play 9-13 games. Hopefully they can maintain striking distance…

 

Agree. Between now and the Detroit series (Aug 11-13) when Sale should be available to start and maybe go 4 innings, the Sox--

 

Play 1 more in Seattle (Crawford starting tonight),

Get tomorrow off,

Play 3 (Aug 4-6) vs. the Jays with Paxton, Pivetta and the bullpen starting,

Play 4 vs. the Royals (Aug 7-10) with Bello, Crawford, Paxton, and Pivetta starting,

Play 3 vs. the Tigers (August 11-13) with Sale, Bello, and Crawford starting,

Get a day off August 14,

 

And then go 16 straight games/days, Aug 15-30, with a 5 man rotation, but with the possibility of mixing in bullpen starts, especially after Whitlock and Houck rejoin the team sometime between 21 and 30 August.

 

31 August and 7 September are days off.

[mvp 78]

Noah Song to be put on waivers. If he goes unclaimed he will return to Boston.

 

I would imagine that a garbage team like the Nats or A's would have room for him the last two months of the year. They only have to keep him on the active roster for 90 days now. Easy peasy for them.

[mvp 78]

He was DFAd a few days ago. Given his Rule 5 status, he’s very likely to clear.

 

But he’s still no closer to being an MLB pitcher…

 

Ahhh, his stuff definitely looks like he hadn't throw a ball in 3 years. It's been rough. He's probably not a starter going forward unfortunately.

[moonslav59]

Sale's FB was 95, last night in his rehab.

 

I know it seems like we've struggled for years, while singing the "Wait for Sale to comeback" song,but after struggling over his first 3 starts, this year, he was clearly near top form and the best pitcher on the team.

 

From 4/13 to June 1: 8 starts/ 47 IP (just shy of 6 IP per GS)

2.87 ERA

2.72 FIP

.633 OPS Against

 

7 of 8 starts with 3 or less ERs allowed

6 of 8 with 2 or less

5 of 8 with just 1 ER allowed

 

I know, I know, "fool me once- fool me twice...," but I'm optimistic he will help, bigly.

 

With a rotation of Bello, Paxton, Sale, Crawford and Pivetta, we can use the returning Houck and Whitlock from the pen, where they belong. I keep hearing people say, "But they both have ERAs over 5!" While this is true, so is this about THIS YEAR'S NUMBERS:

 

OPS Against in 2023

 

Houck

.504 1st PA in game

.534 1st 25 PAs in game

.596 PAs 26-50.

 

Whitlock

4.85 last 5 GS with a 4.04 FIP

Not great but better than before.

 

I have to think these two are better than jacques and Llovera.

[notin]

I would imagine that a garbage team like the Nats or A's would have room for him the last two months of the year. They only have to keep him on the active roster for 90 days now. Easy peasy for them.

 

Why would they want to? At this point, he’s a pitcher who hasn’t thrown a pitch since 2019 in Rookie Ball. Nearly everyday, someone gets DFAd whose more MLB ready…

[moonslav59]

Why would they want to? At this point, he’s a pitcher who hasn’t thrown a pitch since 2019 in Rookie Ball. Nearly everyday, someone gets DFAd whose more MLB ready…

 

Because DD the Almighty liked the guy- twice!

 

That must have value.

 

[mvp 78]

Why would they want to? At this point, he’s a pitcher who hasn’t thrown a pitch since 2019 in Rookie Ball. Nearly everyday, someone gets DFAd whose more MLB ready…

 

https://www.milb.com/player/noah-song-679977

 

He has pitched in games this year. Maybe some team still believes in his upside especially a crappier team like the A's that can keep him on their roster for 90 days and then can option to him to the minors next May and retain his control for a few years.

[notin]

https://www.milb.com/player/noah-song-679977

 

He has pitched in games this year. Maybe some team still believes in his upside especially a crappier team like the A's that can keep him on their roster for 90 days and then can option to him to the minors next May and retain his control for a few years.

 

Maybe.

 

But it wouldn’t surprise me if they didn’t. He pitched 11 IP this year across 3 levels on a short Military List activation. He did strike out 16 batters, but also walked 11 and gave up 9 ER.

 

At this point, he’s also 26 and probably not the best gamble on the waiver wire, especially given his lack of experience and Rule 5 status.

 

I would bet more surprised if he was claimed than of he passed through waivers…

[mvp 78]

Maybe.

 

But it wouldn’t surprise me if they didn’t. He pitched 11 IP this year across 3 levels on a short Military List activation. He did strike out 16 batters, but also walked 11 and gave up 9 ER.

 

At this point, he’s also 26 and probably not the best gamble on the waiver wire, especially given his lack of experience and Rule 5 status.

 

I would bet more surprised if he was claimed than of he passed through waivers…

 

Yeah, it's rough! I just think there's a chance one of those teams sees that they only have to hold onto him for 90 days on the active roster to keep him around for a few years. Could be worth a risk at this point. You get a full offseason to work with him. Can put him in AA next season to stretch him back out into a starter if you want.

 

OAK currently has Tayler Scott in their pen. I'm sure they could dump him and just put Song in that wasted spot.

[notin]

Yeah, it's rough! I just think there's a chance one of those teams sees that they only have to hold onto him for 90 days on the active roster to keep him around for a few years. Could be worth a risk at this point. You get a full offseason to work with him. Can put him in AA next season to stretch him back out into a starter if you want.

 

OAK currently has Tayler Scott in their pen. I'm sure they could dump him and just put Song in that wasted spot.

 

Scott is only a year older than Song and has already earned a trip to MLB more than once. He might be the bottom of the barrel, but at least he’s in the barrel.

 

Right now, Song’s career is what he did at the Naval Academy 4-8 years ago, plus 30 IP spread out over 4 seasons. He might not be the pitcher he was once…

[mvp 78]

Scott is only a year older than Song and has already earned a trip to MLB more than once. He might be the bottom of the barrel, but at least he’s in the barrel.

 

Right now, Song’s career is what he did at the Naval Academy 4-8 years ago, plus 30 IP spread out over 4 seasons. He might not be the pitcher he was once…

 

No, Tayler Scott is 31 (6/1/92). Noah Song is 5 years younger (5/28/97).

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scottta02.shtml

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Noah Song to be put on waivers. If he goes unclaimed he will return to Boston.

 

Bring him back.

 

Song and Wong, and pass the bong.

[dgalehouse]

Scott is only a year older than Song and has already earned a trip to MLB more than once. He might be the bottom of the barrel, but at least he’s in the barrel.

 

Right now, Song’s career is what he did at the Naval Academy 4-8 years ago, plus 30 IP spread out over 4 seasons. He might not be the pitcher he was once…

 

It's not the same old Song ?.

[mvp 78]

Bring him back.

 

Song and Wong, and pass the bong.

 

Bang a gong?

[mvp 78]

It's not the same old Song ?.

 

No, it's possibly the Lemon Song.

[mvp 78]

If he does come back to the org it will be Song 2.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No, it's possibly the Lemon Song.

 

Song will not remain the same.

[notin]

No, Tayler Scott is 31 (6/1/92). Noah Song is 5 years younger (5/28/97).

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scottta02.shtml

 

 

Maybe I looked at the age at his debut. Either way, he’s the one whose been pitching…

[notin]

If he does come back to the org it will be Song 2.

 

He’ll be back. Just like I said in December…

[Duran Is The Man]

He’ll be back. Just like I said in December…

 

swan song?

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Next year:

1b: Cascas

2b: York/Valdez/Urias compete for the starting job

SS: Story

3b: Devers

LF: Duran

CF: Rafaela

RF: platoon, Abreu/Refsnyder

DH: Yoshida

 

I'm not sure what Turner will do but many people seem to think he will test free agency.

Trade Verdugo.

 

The problem: the Red Sox need to add starting pitching, but the Mets will be all over the SPs in free agency and the Mets have heavily scouted the SP from Japan. Steve Cohen is worth 20 billion and will probably spend big after trading Scherzer and Verlander.

[moonslav59]

Next year:

C: Wong/McGuire

1b: Casas

2b: York/Valdez/Urias/Arroyo compete for the starting job

SS: Story

3b: Devers

LF: Duran

CF: Rafaela

RF: platoon, Abreu/Refsnyder

DH: Yoshida

 

I'm not sure what Turner will do but many people seem to think he will test free agency.

Trade Verdugo.

 

The problem: the Red Sox need to add starting pitching, but the Mets will be all over the SPs in free agency and the Mets have heavily scouted the SP from Japan. Steve Cohen is worth 20 billion and will probably spend big after trading Scherzer and Verlander.

 

Fixed it for you.

[Bellhorn04]

Next year:

1b: Cascas

2b: York/Valdez/Urias compete for the starting job

SS: Story

3b: Devers

LF: Duran

CF: Rafaela

RF: platoon, Abreu/Refsnyder

DH: Yoshida

 

I'm not sure what Turner will do but many people seem to think he will test free agency.

Trade Verdugo.

 

The problem: the Red Sox need to add starting pitching, but the Mets will be all over the SPs in free agency and the Mets have heavily scouted the SP from Japan. Steve Cohen is worth 20 billion and will probably spend big after trading Scherzer and Verlander.

 

Believe it or don't, but the Mets are actually saying they're not going to be all in on 2024. Cohen seems to have seen the light in a hurry. Trading Scherzer and Verlander when they were both under contract for next year makes it appear they're not kidding about this.

[Randy Red Sox]

never fear because Bloom will sign a few scrap P from the BBB and 1 veteran Kluber type for a 1 yr deal

Next year:

1b: Cascas

2b: York/Valdez/Urias compete for the starting job

SS: Story

3b: Devers

LF: Duran

CF: Rafaela

RF: platoon, Abreu/Refsnyder

DH: Yoshida

 

I'm not sure what Turner will do but many people seem to think he will test free agency.

Trade Verdugo.

 

The problem: the Red Sox need to add starting pitching, but the Mets will be all over the SPs in free agency and the Mets have heavily scouted the SP from Japan. Steve Cohen is worth 20 billion and will probably spend big after trading Scherzer and Verlander.

[moonslav59]

never fear because Bloom will sign a few scrap P from the BBB and 1 veteran Kluber type for a 1 yr deal

 

Like Jansen, Martin and Bernardino?