Red Sox Spring Training 2023

[notin]

Well reasoned. Those 5 are huge. We might need all 5 to do well to have a good chance, this year, and usually hoping for 5 for 5 is a fool's errand.

 

I will say that if 1-2 just do decent, while the other 3-4 do very well, we do have a long list of others who can easily step up and fill the void(s.) Some maybe be long shots, but several are not:

 

Bello: might be #6 on your list.

Story: how much time does he miss? How long will it take for him to find his groove, if ever?

Kike: can we hope for something like 2021?

Kluber: does he have one more good year in that golden arm?

Turner: was one of the best second half hitters in MLB, last year.

Duvall: is not far removed from leading the league in RBI.

Arroyo & Mondesi: has shown they can play well, when healthy.

McGuire & Wong/Alfaro: not a long shot they can outperform Vaz/Plawecki

Martin & others: can improve the pen, greatly.

Paxton, Whitlock, Houck, Crawford, Wink and some kids offer hopes for more than just filling some rotation slots.

 

 

Really just need Sale to be something close to Sale. Expecting “Peak Years Sale” is too much to expect, but even “Early Decline Sale” should suffice.

 

Also yes, Yoshida has to replace Bogaerts’ bat. Expecting Turner to replace Martinez is certainly reasonable.

 

Jansen should be a step up. But he’s not the improvement in the bullpen nearly as much as the additions of Martin, (the injured) Rodriguez, and Bleier. Keeping Houck there would be huge, too.

[moonslav59]

Really just need Sale to be something close to Sale. Expecting “Peak Years Sale” is too much to expect, but even “Early Decline Sale” should suffice.

 

Also yes, Yoshida has to replace Bogaerts’ bat. Expecting Turner to replace Martinez is certainly reasonable.

 

Jansen should be a step up. But he’s not the improvement in the bullpen nearly as much as the additions of Martin, (the injured) Rodriguez, and Bleier. Keeping Houck there would be huge, too.

 

To me, Houck can and should fill the Long Man role Whitlock has excelled in over the last 2 years. Expecting us to just stay even, at that slot may be pushing it, since Houck filled that role, at times, too. Maybe Crawford, Wink or a kid helps improve upon our past long men.

 

Asking Schreiber to repeat 2022 may be impossible, but maybe just give us a decent 2023 with 60-75 IP.

 

Jansen, Martin, Bleier and hopefully something useful from Joely & Mills, Crawford or Wink or a kid (Mata, Walter, Murphy) should easily be an improvement over 2022, but pen projections are the biggest crapshoot of all positions in MLB.

 

We look better, on paper, despite the early injuries, and that's all we can hope for, at this point.

 

Maybe my hopes for Kluber are too rosy, but I like his chances at improving on 2022, despite being a year older.

Paxton is hard to have any hopes for, but the guy is not a bad pitcher, when healthy.

Bello & Whitlock may be more important than Sale.

Pivetta just needs to stay steady, but as I've pointed out, before, he has had pretty long in-season stretches looking like a solid #2 or #3, so maybe he can pull a Porcello and put together a 32 start stretch for the ages.

2021: 4.09 over first 17 GS (.717 OPSA) 4.10 FIP

2022: 3.72 over a 22 GS stretch (.675 OPSA) 3.61 FIP

 

[moonslav59]

E Valdez with a homer, today.

 

Kluber was not great, but has looked okay, this spring.

 

Kelly gave us a good 2 IP.

[notin]

To me, Houck can and should fill the Long Man role Whitlock has excelled in over the last 2 years. Expecting us to just stay even, at that slot may be pushing it, since Houck filled that role, at times, too. Maybe Crawford, Wink or a kid helps improve upon our past long men.

 

Asking Schreiber to repeat 2022 may be impossible, but maybe just give us a decent 2023 with 60-75 IP.

 

Jansen, Martin, Bleier and hopefully something useful from Joely & Mills, Crawford or Wink or a kid (Mata, Walter, Murphy) should easily be an improvement over 2022, but pen projections are the biggest crapshoot of all positions in MLB.

 

We look better, on paper, despite the early injuries, and that's all we can hope for, at this point.

 

Maybe my hopes for Kluber are too rosy, but I like his chances at improving on 2022, despite being a year older.

Paxton is hard to have any hopes for, but the guy is not a bad pitcher, when healthy.

Bello & Whitlock may be more important than Sale.

Pivetta just needs to stay steady, but as I've pointed out, before, he has had pretty long in-season stretches looking like a solid #2 or #3, so maybe he can pull a Porcello and put together a 32 start stretch for the ages.

2021: 4.09 over first 17 GS (.717 OPSA) 4.10 FIP

2022: 3.72 over a 22 GS stretch (.675 OPSA) 3.61 FIP

 

 

I expect Schreiber can repeat 2022 if they change his role. He was the definition of high leverage remedy ace. Bases loaded with no one out? Bring in Schreiber. I remember one series last year in Toronto in which he pitched all 3 games and came in to face Bichette and Guerrero each game.

 

Maybe give him a free low leverage outings and he puts up similar numbers…

Edited March 25, 2023 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

I expect Schreiber can repeat 2022 if they change his role. He was the definition of high leverage remedy ace. Bases loaded with no one out? Bring in Schreiber. I remember one series since ago Toronto in which he pitched all 3 games and came in to face Bichette and Guerrero each game.

 

Maybe give him a free low leverage outings and he puts up similar numbers…

 

Fix your phone!

[notin]

Per Pete Abraham via Twitter

 

Sox still have to decide on a few things:

 

* Wong or Alfaro as backup catcher.

* Chang or Dalbec as backup infielder.

* Creating a 40-man roster spot for Tapia, who seems certain to make the team.

* One bullpen spot.

 

 

DFAing Chang and keeping Dalbec as the backup infielder does create the roster spot for Tapia.

 

Given that Zack Kelly has already been told he made the team, the last bullpen spot goes to Sherrif, requiring a second DFA.

 

That basically means Wong makes the team. No way they DFA 3 players to fill the roles vacated by injury…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Per Pete Abraham via Twitter

 

Sox still have to decide on a few things:

 

* Wong or Alfaro as backup catcher.

* Chang or Dalbec as backup infielder.

* Creating a 40-man roster spot for Tapia, who seems certain to make the team.

* One bullpen spot.

 

 

DFAing Chang and keeping Dalbec as the backup infielder does create the roster spot for Tapia.

 

Given that Zack Kelly has already been told he made the team, the last bullpen spot goes to Sherrif, requiring a second DFA.

 

That basically means Wong makes the team. No way they DFA 3 players to fill the roles vacated by injury…

 

Tapia is in.

 

Chang was great in the WBC, Cora says he looks bigger, and (at least until Mondesi is whole), someone who can play shortstop when Kike inevitably moves back to center.

 

Alfaro has been clutch since he was MVP of the Dominican League.

 

The '23 season isn't all-in, so let's-see-what's-next. Find a way to keep a guys who may be maturing into bonafide -- if not impact -- big leaguers. We've already seen what Dalbec and Duran can do, how about some fresh faces for the fans. Unless you're buying that Kluber and Jansen aren't past their primes (remember how excited Tito was when "we got John Smoltz"?), what's the worst that can happen -- last place?

[Hugh2]

I think they send Dalbec to the minors. At least ti start the season, there’s really no space for him on this roster. Despite his starts at SS he really doesn’t offer much positional flexibility, aside from poor defense at 3Rd. He has options and it allows them to retain one of the bubble guys who maybe provide better positional versatility in a back up role. That’s not Dalbec and he has options.

 

I really really really wish there was a way they could keep Alfaro as a third catcher. But that might mean him not getting another offer or really really wanting to be here. Perhaps they can work out an opt out in may and June and role with Wong as the back up. I like Alfaro, but can’t afford to have bad defense at another position.

[notin]

Tapia is in.

 

Chang was great in the WBC, Cora says he looks bigger, and (at least until Mondesi is whole), someone who can play shortstop when Kike inevitably moves back to center.

 

Alfaro has been clutch since he was MVP of the Dominican League.

 

The '23 season isn't all-in, so let's-see-what's-next. Find a way to keep a guys who may be maturing into bonafide -- if not impact -- big leaguers. We've already seen what Dalbec and Duran can do, how about some fresh faces for the fans. Unless you're buying that Kluber and Jansen aren't past their primes (remember how excited Tito was when "we got John Smoltz"?), what's the worst that can happen -- last place?

 

Tapia and Chang are not the type of “fresh faces” fans are going to buy tickets to see.

 

Duran has 335 career PA. Tapia has 1,858. How is Duran the guy that “we’ve already seen what he can do?”

 

Chang does have a shorter career than Dalbec, and is roughly the same age. But the thing about Dalbec is he is periodically a very exciting player. They’re not experimenting with him at SS and 2b to up his trade value or because Bloom believes in placing players anywhere. There’s a good chance they think Dalbec’s future is as a bench player. I figured he’d go play 2b/SS/OF in Worcester. But he might get a chance to do it in Boston while opening a spot for Tapia. Chang isn’t anyone there Sox will miss on the off chance he doesn’t clear waivers.

 

Also your faith in Duvall in CF is worse than mine, but it’s possible Tapia takes over CF if Duvall falters. Or at least a Tapia/Refsnyder platoon. I seriously doubt the Sox carry two backup outfielders if the plan is to relocate the SS when they finally do need a backup…

Edited March 26, 2023 by notin

[notin]

I think they send Dalbec to the minors. At least ti start the season, there’s really no space for him on this roster. Despite his starts at SS he really doesn’t offer much positional flexibility, aside from poor defense at 3Rd. He has options and it allows them to retain one of the bubble guys who maybe provide better positional versatility in a back up role. That’s not Dalbec and he has options.

 

I really really really wish there was a way they could keep Alfaro as a third catcher. But that might mean him not getting another offer or really really wanting to be here. Perhaps they can work out an opt out in may and June and role with Wong as the back up. I like Alfaro, but can’t afford to have bad defense at another position.

 

I thought so, too. But the Sox need to DFA two players to keep Tapia and Sherriff. Three if they keep Alfaro.

 

Unless they actually flat out DFA Dalbec, I don’t see how that happens. Even Ort - unless he gets the spot over Sherriff - should finally be worried. Although, like Chang, he would probably clear waivers.

 

One DFA? Dalbec gets demoted and Chang makes the team. But two? Chang is certainly a candidate, and a likely one as he has been DFAd before and is still here.

 

Three DFAs? I don’t see it. Alfaro’s only chance is if someone goes to the 60 day IL.

 

Edit: Now I’m seeing Wyatt Mills’ diagnosis is a flexor issue. A 60 day Injured List is a strong possibility.

 

Hopefully this doesn’t mean they keep Ort. Just DFA Ort and Chang. Re-sign Chang. And add Sherriff, Tapia and Alfaro to the 40 man roster…

Edited March 26, 2023 by notin

[notin]

I also don’t see Sherriff lasting long.

 

32yo pitcher with less than 20 largely ineffective career IP at the MLB level getting by on a 6 IP sample size in spring training against weak opposition.

 

This does not look like the recipe for a long shelf life…

[notin]

To me, it’s obvious how this ends.

 

1. DFA Chang, keep Dalbec on the 26 man roster. Add Tapia to the 40 man roster. Dalbec (who has options) only stays on the 26 man until Mondesi is ready.

2. Add Mills to the 60 Day Injured List, opening a 40 man spot for Sherriff.

3. Ort escapes again for some reason.

[moonslav59]

Per Pete Abraham via Twitter

 

Sox still have to decide on a few things:

 

* Wong or Alfaro as backup catcher.

* Chang or Dalbec as backup infielder.

* Creating a 40-man roster spot for Tapia, who seems certain to make the team.

* One bullpen spot.

 

 

DFAing Chang and keeping Dalbec as the backup infielder does create the roster spot for Tapia.

 

Given that Zack Kelly has already been told he made the team, the last bullpen spot goes to Sherrif, requiring a second DFA.

 

That basically means Wong makes the team. No way they DFA 3 players to fill the roles vacated by injury…

 

Could Mills or Joely go on the 60 to create a slot?

 

Could Ort's time finally be up?

 

Could a rare late March trade be made? Some teams need a 1Bman (Dalbec) or might want Duran (to make room for Tapia, although our OF depth would not improve in numbers by swapping Tapia for Duran.) Could we trade Wong?

 

I'd really like to see Alfaro and Tapia stick around.

 

[moonslav59]

I think they send Dalbec to the minors. At least ti start the season, there’s really no space for him on this roster. Despite his starts at SS he really doesn’t offer much positional flexibility, aside from poor defense at 3Rd. He has options and it allows them to retain one of the bubble guys who maybe provide better positional versatility in a back up role. That’s not Dalbec and he has options.

 

I really really really wish there was a way they could keep Alfaro as a third catcher. But that might mean him not getting another offer or really really wanting to be here. Perhaps they can work out an opt out in may and June and role with Wong as the back up. I like Alfaro, but can’t afford to have bad defense at another position.

 

Starting the year with Alfaro as the back-up and Wong in AAA makes the most sense, in isolation, but who do we DFA to make room for Alfaro (and Tapia?)

[notin]

Could Mills or Joely go on the 60 to create a slot?

 

Could Ort's time finally be up?

 

Could a rare late March trade be made? Some teams need a 1Bman (Dalbec) or might want Duran (to make room for Tapia, although our OF depth would not improve in numbers by swapping Tapia for Duran.) Could we trade Wong?

 

I'd really like to see Alfaro and Tapia stick around.

 

 

1. I think Mills (flexor) is likely to hit the 60 Day IL. The 60 Day IL has already been ruled out for Rodriguez. Expect Sherriff to take this roster spot.

 

2. I don’t know what Ort has to do to get DFAd. Clearly it’s not “pitch poorly.” My fear is it has to involve something extremely gruesome.

 

3. They could keep Alfaro and demote the recovering Wong if they would just DFA Ort. Just do it!

 

4. Chang is likely gone because 1) he isn’t Teflon Ort, 2) Dalbec definitely has options and I’m not sure if Chang does. This is important since this spot is essentially a placeholder for Mondesi. Tapia gets added to this 40 man roster spot…

[moonslav59]

PA posted video on the Globe of Masa launching bombs off soft toss...

 

I'm not sure we replace a pitcher with a pitcher.

 

Alfaro and Tapia seem like bigger needs.

 

It might come down to who they think is the least likely to be claimed: Ort, Chang and _____ .

 

Brasier still remains the enigma.

 

I have to think these guys would be claimed:

Dalbec

Duran

Kelly

Murphy

Hamilton

EValdez

Bleier

 

Is there any team out there who might trade a non 40 man roster promising prospect for any of these guys?

 

[notin]

I'm not sure we replace a pitcher with a pitcher.

 

Alfaro and Tapia seem like bigger needs.

 

It might come down to who they think is the least likely to be claimed: Ort, Chang and _____ .

 

Brasier still remains the enigma.

 

I have to think these guys would be claimed:

Dalbec

Duran

Kelly

Murphy

Hamilton

EValdez

Bleier

 

Is there any team out there who might trade a non 40 man roster promising prospect for any of these guys?

 

 

DFA Chang and Ort. Put Mills on the 60 Day IL. Then you can add Tapia, Alfaro and Sherriff.

 

Of course if they just promote Walter or Murphy, they won’t need to rely on Sherriff at all..

[guinness22]

Ort gives up two more runs today. Sporting a near 10 ERA. No way he makes the 40 right?…..RIGHT????

[moonslav59]

This whole Ort fascination has to end.

 

Cut this guy, NOW!

[moonslav59]

DFA Chang and Ort. Put Mills on the 60 Day IL. Then you can add Tapia, Alfaro and Sherriff.

 

Of course if they just promote Walter or Murphy, they won’t need to rely on Sherriff at all..

 

I'm not so sure Sheriff deserves to be added to the 40. i'm thinking Walter is just as good and has more long term upside.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Tapia and Chang are not the type of “fresh faces” fans are going to buy tickets to see.

 

Duran has 335 career PA. Tapia has 1,858. How is Duran the guy that “we’ve already seen what he can do?”

 

Also your faith in Duvall in CF is worse than mine, but it’s possible Tapia takes over CF if Duvall falters. Or at least a Tapia/Refsnyder platoon. I seriously doubt the Sox carry two backup outfielders if the plan is to relocate the SS when they finally do need a backup…

 

1. The only way fans will buy tickets to see Tapia and/or Chang is if either blossom into stars. They both did the past month vs. competition bereft of entire MLB lineups, but what does that say for all the other big leaguers who did not on similar stages? Is there at least a chance that one of them is actually a better ballplayer this year?

 

2. I wasn't just talking about ABs for Duran. A lot of Sox fans have seen enough of him everywhere: in the outfield, on the bases, researching vaccines, etc.

 

3. Tapia was dumped by Toronto because the Jays' specific goal was to improve their outfield defense this year. If Duvall can't handle full-time CF, and is replaced by a Ref/Tapia platoon, we may be looking at a 90-loss team.

 

On the verge of the season, the only positions that have the potential to be above-average are the corners: 1B/RF, 3B/LF... though I'd like to see what a full-time year of a healthy Arroyo would look like.

[Bellhorn04]

On the verge of the season, the only positions that have the potential to be above-average are the corners: 1B/RF, 3B/LF... though I'd like to see what a full-time year of a healthy Arroyo would look like.

 

Technically Duvall also has the potential to be above average, having been so in 2021, along with 2016 and 2017.

[Bellhorn04]

As we've been saying, this team needs a lot of things to go right. Season starts in 4 days. Hopefully it will at least be an interesting one.

[d-money]

As we've been saying, this team needs a lot of things to go right. Season starts in 4 days. Hopefully it will at least be an interesting one.

 

They better not get off to a slow start or it’s curtains for them. Anyway i have no expectations for this club. That’s what these people in charge have planted.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

As we've been saying, this team needs a lot of things to go right. Season starts in 4 days. Hopefully it will at least be an interesting one.

 

They better not get off to a slow start or it’s curtains for them. Anyway i have no expectations for this club. That’s what these people in charge have planted.

 

Combining quotes from two previous posts of optimism and pessimism... if the Sox are bad, at least the trade deadline will be interesting. See, there's a gray lining to every silver cloud.

[Old Red]

Technically Duvall also has the potential to be above average, having been so in 2021, along with 2016 and 2017.

 

Duvall has never been a full time CF, and never really played there until 2021, so he only has 75 career games there, so we’ll have to see at now 34 how he handles that.

[Tedballgame]

Who cares if Ort gets claimed ? He is a bum!.

[Tedballgame]

He sucks but he obviously has something on whoever makes the decisions because there’s no way he should be on the team.

[moonslav59]

If Tapia is better on defense, in CF, than Duvall, and Duvall struggles, then it matters, but I'm not sure he is.

 

I don't think Tapia is worse than Duran, Ref or Verdugo in CF.

 

On offense, Duvall turns 35, this year, and it's hard to know if his .677 OPS, last year is a sign he is done, but the guy has had some fairly recent success:

 

2021: .281 33 113 (Led league in RBI)

 

2020-2021: .789 OPS (54 HRs and 146 RBI in 764 PAs)

2019-2021: .802 OPS (per 650 PAs: .236 46 120)

 

Tapia was better on offense earlier in his career:

.734 up to 2020 (892 PAs)

.687 2021-2022 (966 PAs)

 

Defense in CF:

 

They look pretty close to even in CF...

 

 

Tapia: +3 DRS in 439 innings (-4.4 UZR150)

Duvall +4 DRS in 594 innings (+4.7 UZR/150)

 

OF

Duvall +58 DRA in 5906 innings (+5.0 UZR/150)

Tapia -4 DRS/-2.5 UZR/150 in 3487 innings

 

[moonslav59]

He sucks but he obviously has something on whoever makes the decisions because there’s no way he should be on the team.

 

This joke is getting old.

 

I do agree: he needs to go.

 

Maybe letting him go makes the TWard decision look even worse. Obviously, Alfaro and Tapia offer more to the 40 and maybe 26 than Ort does.