Red Sox Spring Training 2023

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Well so far this off-season, no one wants Politi…

 

Politi discussions are discouraged on the forum.

[moonslav59]

Vaz was not a star, but a fairly solid player. The question is whether McGuire is a valid replacement. He's our #1 catcher now, and he had a 6.33 CERA with us last year, and our pitching was atrocious the last few weeks of ST, so I'm a little nervous about that.

 

I've often been criticized for bringing up CERA-related issues and the small or unbalanced nature of the sample sizes, but using McGuire's very short and highly lop-sided sample size from 2022 is really pushing it.

 

First of all, many of our best pitchers were on the IL for much or all of his time, here. Second, his sample sizes were tiny with each pitcher and very lop-sided when compared to Vaz and Plawecki, when looking at who he caught, mostly.

 

Plus, there has to be an adjustment period, and he is basically starting ovr, this spring, as much of staff is brand new to him.

[Bellhorn04]

Politi discussions are discouraged on the forum.

 

OK, that was funny.

[Bellhorn04]

I've often been criticized for bringing up CERA-related issues and the small or unbalanced nature of the sample sizes, but using McGuire's very short and highly lop-sided sample size from 2022 is really pushing it.

 

First of all, many of our best pitchers were on the IL for much or all of his time, here. Second, his sample sizes were tiny with each pitcher and very lop-sided when compared to Vaz and Plawecki, when looking at who he caught, mostly.

 

Plus, there has to be an adjustment period, and he is basically starting ovr, this spring, as much of staff is brand new to him.

 

It just so happens that I'm the other guy here who is fascinated by CERA.

 

Your points are well taken. I'm just feeling pessimistic about the 2023 team right now, and whether it's rational or not, the fact we didn't allow less than 4 runs in any of our last 10 games has something to do with that.

 

If McGuire isn't the guy, we have a serious issue on our hands.

[mvp 78]

Politi discussions are discouraged on the forum.

 

Politi is fine in AAA. Maybe he can earn his way to an MLB callup at some point. He's just not quite there yet.

[mvp 78]

It just so happens that I'm the other guy here who is fascinated by CERA.

 

Your points are well taken. I'm just feeling pessimistic about the 2023 team right now, and whether it's rational or not, the fact we didn't allow less than 4 runs in any of our last 10 games has something to do with that.

 

If McGuire isn't the guy, we have a serious issue on our hands.

 

Posters bagged on Vazquez as being a bad CERA guy. Plawecki was supposedly the good one, but he was horrendous last year. Varitek speaks very highly of McGuire, so I think we need to at least give him a full season before we dump on him too much.

[moonslav59]

It just so happens that I'm the other guy here who is fascinated by CERA.

 

Your points are well taken. I'm just feeling pessimistic about the 2023 team right now, and whether it's rational or not, the fact we didn't allow less than 4 runs in any of our last 10 games has something to do with that.

 

If McGuire isn't the guy, we have a serious issue on our hands.

 

I totally agree. We don't really know what McGuire will bring to our staff. I'm hopeful our scouts and talent evaluators know what they are doing, but it's not like they have a perfect track record.

 

Last year, they almost traded for Stallings. His offensive numbers fell off a cliff and I see no evidence his CERA-related abilities were better than other catchers on the Marlins.

 

Fingers crossed.

[Bellhorn04]

Posters bagged on Vazquez as being a bad CERA guy. Plawecki was supposedly the good one, but he was horrendous last year. Varitek speaks very highly of McGuire, so I think we need to at least give him a full season before we dump on him too much.

 

That's fair. I think I've just had kind of a personal epiphany where I don't feel the need to be rational about Chaim Bloom's Red Sox any more.

[Old Red]

Politi is fine in AAA. Maybe he can earn his way to an MLB callup at some point. He's just not quite there yet.

 

Noah Song opens the season on the Phillies IL, so they are still hanging on to him.

[moonslav59]

Posters bagged on Vazquez as being a bad CERA guy. Plawecki was supposedly the good one, but he was horrendous last year.

 

Horrendous?

 

2022 CERA & Most PAs with each catcher (OPS):

 

4.21 Vaz

456 Pivetta .692

262 Hill .790

215 Whitlock .670

202 Wacha .720

174 Houck .551

 

4.32 Plawecki

303 Nate .748

251 Wacha .527

149 Wink .859

124 Crawford .742

101 Hill .642

 

Maybe the guy who caught more of Crawford and Wink might than Whitlock and Houck should get an adjustment. Plawecki also did better with Wacha and Hill- the two guys they both caught, a lot.

[mvp 78]

That's fair. I think I've just had kind of a personal epiphany where I don't feel the need to be rational about Chaim Bloom's Red Sox any more.

 

Irrationally pro or anti?

[mvp 78]

Noah Song opens the season on the Phillies IL, so they are still hanging on to him.

 

He'll start the season on the Military List for 15 days most likely. Then they'll make a decision after that.

[moonslav59]

Irrationally pro or anti?

 

I always thought Bell was pretty rational about Chaim, all along- not pro or anti.

[Bellhorn04]

Irrationally pro or anti?

 

That may vary on a daily basis.

[Bellhorn04]

I always thought Bell was pretty rational about Chaim, all along- not pro or anti.

 

I thought I was too. But I'm totally befuddled at this point. I have a bad feeling that Chaim is taking a whole lot of chances and hoping they work out...

[notin]

I thought I was too. But I'm totally befuddled at this point. I have a bad feeling that Chaim is taking a whole lot of chances and hoping they work out...

 

I’m not sure he had other options in many cases.

 

I think he made some good moves and some fairly awful ones. The awful ones will probably be the ones that pan out…

[moonslav59]

I thought I was too. But I'm totally befuddled at this point. I have a bad feeling that Chaim is taking a whole lot of chances and hoping they work out...

 

I still think this past winter was Bloom's "legacy" or "Make or break" winter.

 

I'm not going to move the goalpost, here, but I will point out that the massive rise in top FA costs did make the total possible value added through free agency more difficult than I had thought, before the winter began.

 

It's sink or swim time for Chaim.

 

He may not be fired, if we do poorly due to injuries, but I expect he will be, if we fail to look good.

 

[a700hitter]

I still think this past winter was Bloom's "legacy" or "Make or break" winter.

 

I'm not going to move the goalpost, here, but I will point out that the massive rise in top FA costs did make the total possible value added through free agency more difficult than I had thought, before the winter began.

 

It's sink or swim time for Chaim.

 

He may not be fired, if we do poorly due to injuries, but I expect he will be, if we fail to look good.

 

If Sale can stay healthy and approximate his past performance, it will be a huge boost to this team. Along with addition of Kenley resulting in less blown saves, his job may be saved.

[moonslav59]

If Sale can stay healthy and approximate his past performance, it will be a huge boost to this team. Along with addition of Kenley resulting in less blown saves, his job may be saved.

 

Those two certainly look like major keys to our 2023 success, but I like the fact that we have many others that can step it up and give the team a big boost, in case one or both of these guys do not excel.

 

Yoshiad

Turner

Casas

Duvall

Kike/Arroyo

Dugo/Ref/Tapia

Kluber

Whitlock

Houck

Crawinck

Martin

 

Maybe a surprise from someone not mentioned.

[mvp 78]

I've got a bad feeling about this.

 

Chaim Bloom is the ultimate scruffy looking nerf herder.

[mvp 78]

If Sale can stay healthy and approximate his past performance, it will be a huge boost to this team. Along with addition of Kenley resulting in less blown saves, his job may be saved.

 

There is a way in which the Sox don't make the playoffs and Bloom keeps his job. If the team is an absolute s*** show, he is most likely gone.

[sk7326]

I thought I was too. But I'm totally befuddled at this point. I have a bad feeling that Chaim is taking a whole lot of chances and hoping they work out...

 

I think Chaim takes a lot of the bullets that really should be for ownership. A lot of the big decisions are really Henry ones.

 

Bloom did take a bunch of dice rolls in 2021 an it largely worked. Last year the dice rolls failed. This year we'll see. I do think some of the moves (especially with the pitching staff) have a little bit higher floor.

[moonslav59]

I think Chaim takes a lot of the bullets that really should be for ownership. A lot of the big decisions are really Henry ones.

 

Bloom did take a bunch of dice rolls in 2021 an it largely worked. Last year the dice rolls failed. This year we'll see. I do think some of the moves (especially with the pitching staff) have a little bit higher floor.

 

One could argue more dice rolls worked better in 2022 vs 2021, at least the winter ones.

 

(Kike was a 2020 addition)

 

2021 dice rolls: Renfroe, Richards, Perez, Ottavino, Andriese, Sawamura

 

2022 dice rolls: Wacha, Hill, Strahm, Story (JBJ trade)

 

In season:

 

2021: Schwarber, Iggy, Shaw, Robles, Davis

2022: McGuire, Pham, Hosmer, EValdez & Abreu and M Ferguson & C Rosier

[moonslav59]

There is a way in which the Sox don't make the playoffs and Bloom keeps his job. If the team is an absolute s*** show, he is most likely gone.

 

Agreed. If we hang around, or miss out due to Sale being hurt or sucking, that may help him stay another year.

 

If once healthy players all get hurt, that may be a factor, too.

 

If guys like Paxton and Arroyo miss most of the year, Bloom is not let off the hook. He knew what he got.

 

Scouts loved Yoshida. True, Bloom made the choice, but is it all on him?

[Bellhorn04]

One could argue more dice rolls worked better in 2022 vs 2021, at least the winter ones.

 

(Kike was a 2020 addition)

 

2021 dice rolls: Renfroe, Richards, Perez, Ottavino, Andriese, Sawamura

 

2022 dice rolls: Wacha, Hill, Strahm, Story (JBJ trade)

 

In season:

 

2021: Schwarber, Iggy, Shaw, Robles, Davis

2022: McGuire, Pham, Hosmer, EValdez & Abreu and M Ferguson & C Rosier

 

The thing is a lot of these names just don't move the needle much one way or the other.

 

The dice roll on Story is looking like a significant losing bet for both 2022 and 2023.

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed. If we hang around, or miss out due to Sale being hurt or sucking, that may help him stay another year.

 

If once healthy players all get hurt, that may be a factor, too.

 

If guys like Paxton and Arroyo miss most of the year, Bloom is not let off the hook. He knew what he got.

 

Scouts loved Yoshida. True, Bloom made the choice, but is it all on him?

 

Definitely feeling optimistic about Yoshida.

[mvp 78]

One could argue more dice rolls worked better in 2022 vs 2021, at least the winter ones.

 

(Kike was a 2020 addition)

 

2021 dice rolls: Renfroe, Richards, Perez, Ottavino, Andriese, Sawamura

 

2022 dice rolls: Wacha, Hill, Strahm, Story (JBJ trade)

 

In season:

 

2021: Schwarber, Iggy, Shaw, Robles, Davis

2022: McGuire, Pham, Hosmer, EValdez & Abreu and M Ferguson & C Rosier

 

I disagree about the dice rolls working in 2022. Forming a rotation around Paxton, Wacha, Hill stressed out the bullpen and the IL. With an injured Sale, Chaim needed to acquire more sure bets for the rotation. Regression from Nate, JD and Kiké certainly didn't help.

[mvp 78]

Agreed. If we hang around, or miss out due to Sale being hurt or sucking, that may help him stay another year.

 

If once healthy players all get hurt, that may be a factor, too.

 

If guys like Paxton and Arroyo miss most of the year, Bloom is not let off the hook. He knew what he got.

 

Scouts loved Yoshida. True, Bloom made the choice, but is it all on him?

 

If the Sox are a middling team but there are big years from Yoshida, Casas, Bello and other future pieces, Henry may be convinced to keep Bloom.

[Bellhorn04]

If the Sox are a middling team but there are big years from Yoshida, Casas, Bello and other future pieces, Henry may be convinced to keep Bloom.

 

Henry has booted Theo, Ben and Dave in spite of 4 rings won and massive growth in franchise value.

 

It's pretty hard to predict what he'll do at this point...

[Old Red]

Definitely feeling optimistic about Yoshida.

 

I’m still on the wait, and see mode on Yoshida, and how he handles playing in BOSTON.