Xander Bogaerts has signed with San Diego Padres

[Bellhorn04]

A deadline trade of Devers might actually yield a better haul.

 

But that plan runs the risk of the team being in the same position as last year.

[moonslav59]

Character isn’t always the only other issue.

 

All I can say is that, having never been involved in MLB free agency talks, I don’t know everything that is involved. I think that applies to all of us.

 

And there are clearly always other possibilities. Carlos Correa is showing one such possibility in the news daily…

 

We offered Betts a fair contract.

 

I think they felt they were prepared to offer or had offered a fair contract to Bogey, before being blown out of the water by the Padres. (And, we wonder why players don't want to extend.)

 

I think 2 factors may have played a role in them deciding Bogey was not "the guy" to break their long-standing guideline of setting a value and not budging much from it:

 

1) His defense has never been near elite- like Betts or even guys like Correa.

 

2) His reluctance to want to change positions to better the team.

 

I think those two factors played into them not ever meeting the price BorA$$ would have ever accepted all along the timeline of negotiations.

 

Maybe they felt nobody would overpay Bogey for the same reasons, and they misjudged the market or one crazy GM. Maybe, they really felt they could and would match anyone's offer, until the Padres one shocked the whole baseball world. I'm not even sure they have ever given Bogey $225M/8, even now, if they could. My guess is they felt $200M/8 would bring him back, in the end.

 

Call them dumb, incompetent or greedy. Maybe they are all 3. But, maybe their evaluation of what his production would be worth turns out to be right. The success rate of these mega deals is probably under 50-50.

[moonslav59]

Trading Devers before the season would really take balls.

 

Indeed, but taking the wimpy role hasn't worked out too well either.

 

One could view them as needing balls to get nothing for Devers, either.

 

Not trading him and losing him for nothing is just prolonging or rescheduling the punishment.

[moonslav59]

Hey, we have a new punching bag of blame for Christmas... politicians!

 

MLBTR reports:

 

The recent passing of a ’millionaires tax’ in Massachusetts has led to an increase in state income taxes in 2023 from 5% to 9% on annual income over $1MM — potentially impacting Boston’s offseason, per Alex Speier of The Boston Globe. Speier reports that agents who have been negotiating with the Red Sox are factoring in the tax when contemplating offers, stating that “it’s potentially millions of dollars in the deal.” Speier adds that Boston is now “lumped in with teams in California and New York in needing to outbid clubs in more favorable tax environments (particularly Texas and Florida, where there’s no state income tax) to present offers of equal value.” Speculatively speaking, this tax may have played a role in the Red S0x’s five-year, $90MM agreement with NPB star Masataka Yoshida, who many around the league predicted would earn significantly less.

[Bellhorn04]

Indeed, but taking the wimpy role hasn't worked out too well either.

 

One could view them as needing balls to get nothing for Devers, either.

 

Not trading him and losing him for nothing is just prolonging or rescheduling the punishment.

 

They went the ballsy route with Mookie. Can't really say that's been a resounding success either!

[harmony]

Hey, we have a new punching bag of blame for Christmas... politicians!

 

MLBTR reports:

 

The recent passing of a ’millionaires tax’ in Massachusetts has led to an increase in state income taxes in 2023 from 5% to 9% on annual income over $1MM — potentially impacting Boston’s offseason, per Alex Speier of The Boston Globe. Speier reports that agents who have been negotiating with the Red Sox are factoring in the tax when contemplating offers, stating that “it’s potentially millions of dollars in the deal.” Speier adds that Boston is now “lumped in with teams in California and New York in needing to outbid clubs in more favorable tax environments (particularly Texas and Florida, where there’s no state income tax) to present offers of equal value.” Speculatively speaking, this tax may have played a role in the Red S0x’s five-year, $90MM agreement with NPB star Masataka Yoshida, who many around the league predicted would earn significantly less.

The Seattle Mariners have trouble attracting free agents despite the absence of a state income tax in Washington.

[Bellhorn04]

Hey, we have a new punching bag of blame for Christmas... politicians!

 

MLBTR reports:

 

The recent passing of a ’millionaires tax’ in Massachusetts has led to an increase in state income taxes in 2023 from 5% to 9% on annual income over $1MM — potentially impacting Boston’s offseason, per Alex Speier of The Boston Globe. Speier reports that agents who have been negotiating with the Red Sox are factoring in the tax when contemplating offers, stating that “it’s potentially millions of dollars in the deal.” Speier adds that Boston is now “lumped in with teams in California and New York in needing to outbid clubs in more favorable tax environments (particularly Texas and Florida, where there’s no state income tax) to present offers of equal value.” Speculatively speaking, this tax may have played a role in the Red S0x’s five-year, $90MM agreement with NPB star Masataka Yoshida, who many around the league predicted would earn significantly less.

 

Yes, without Texas's favorable tax environment, who knows what they'd have had to pay for Seager, Semien and deGrom! They got all 3 for only $685 mill!

[moonslav59]

They went the ballsy route with Mookie. Can't really say that's been a resounding success either!

 

I thought we should have gone 12 or more years with Betts. We offered a fair deal that would be viewed as ballsy by many GMs.

 

We got 5 years of Verdugo and a top 100 prospects, despite attaching half Price.

 

It sucks we lost Betts, but I'm not holding a grudge.

 

I'm not sure about what offers were thrown around with Bogey or what BorA$$ insisted along the way, but I'm not so sure we made a clear "wrong choice" at any point along the way, except for that initial lowball $30M + 1 yr offer.

 

It sucks we lost Bogey, but I'm still not sure it was the big mistake many see it as.

 

We'll see,

 

Devers Forevers is what needs to happen.

Edited December 25, 2022 by moonslav59

[notin]

A very good question.

 

And one possible answer is that they don’t, but possibly the reluctance to sign Bogaerts related his defense at shortstop and his reported desire to not change position.

 

Certainly the Sox could ignore that and tell him to play where he’s told, but is that really the best situation?

[notin]

We offered Betts a fair contract.

 

I think they felt they were prepared to offer or had offered a fair contract to Bogey, before being blown out of the water by the Padres. (And, we wonder why players don't want to extend.)

 

I think 2 factors may have played a role in them deciding Bogey was not "the guy" to break their long-standing guideline of setting a value and not budging much from it:

 

1) His defense has never been near elite- like Betts or even guys like Correa.

 

2) His reluctance to want to change positions to better the team.

 

I think those two factors played into them not ever meeting the price BorA$$ would have ever accepted all along the timeline of negotiations.

 

Maybe they felt nobody would overpay Bogey for the same reasons, and they misjudged the market or one crazy GM. Maybe, they really felt they could and would match anyone's offer, until the Padres one shocked the whole baseball world. I'm not even sure they have ever given Bogey $225M/8, even now, if they could. My guess is they felt $200M/8 would bring him back, in the end.

 

Call them dumb, incompetent or greedy. Maybe they are all 3. But, maybe their evaluation of what his production would be worth turns out to be right. The success rate of these mega deals is probably under 50-50.

 

I just made a post with similar theories. It’s stuff we don’t and may never know, but that doesn’t mean it never existed…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I thought we should have gone 12 or more years with Betts. We offered a fair deal that would be viewed as ballsy by many GMs.

 

We got 5 years of Verdugo and a top 100 prospects, despite attaching half Price.

 

It sucks we lost Betts, but I'm not holding a grudge.

 

I'm not sure about what offers were thrown around with Bogey or what BorA$$ insisted along the way, but I'm not so sure we made a clear "wrong choice" at any point along the way, except for that initial lowball $30M + 1 yr offer.

 

It sucks we lost Bogey, but I'm still not sure it was the big mistake many see it as.

 

We'll see,

 

Devers Forevers is what needs to happen.

 

Happy holidays, all. Some may have forgotten that whenever the Red Sox made offers to Mookie, they were always below what his market value was at the time (which was top of the industry).

 

I'm not saying they lowballed him, but was it really necessary to alienate a young star by taking him to arbitration? Then when he almost took Boston's offer for $200M, his mother talked him out of it because he was worth more. Trout is great, but not twice as great as Mookie. Finally, when Boston offered $300M, everyone knew Betts was a better all-around player than Harper and Machado, who had each signed for more.

 

The Red Sox front office has this history. And now -- if they really want Devers to sign an extension -- they'll have to overpay above market prices. Otherwise, Raffy knows he can just wait a year and establish a new market ceiling.

[moonslav59]

Happy holidays, all. Some may have forgotten that whenever the Red Sox made offers to Mookie, they were always below what his market value was at the time (which was top of the industry).

 

I'm not sure what the market value was when the offer was made. I'd guess it was close. I think $300M was fair, whether it fell slightly short of "market" or not. It was fair, IMO. If the report that he wanted $400M was true, I can see why we might not have bothered to counter with $310M/1o or $325M/11.

 

Maybe the fault lies with never countering.

[Bellhorn04]

I thought we should have gone 12 or more years with Betts. We offered a fair deal that would be viewed as ballsy by many GMs.

 

We got 5 years of Verdugo and a top 100 prospects, despite attaching half Price.

 

And over the last 2 years Verdugo has a total fWAR of 3.2, 1.6 avg., which makes him by definition a below average player.

[Bobe2]

Hey, we have a new punching bag of blame for Christmas... politicians!

 

MLBTR reports:

 

The recent passing of a ’millionaires tax’ in Massachusetts has led to an increase in state income taxes in 2023 from 5% to 9% on annual income over $1MM — potentially impacting Boston’s offseason, per Alex Speier of The Boston Globe. Speier reports that agents who have been negotiating with the Red Sox are factoring in the tax when contemplating offers, stating that “it’s potentially millions of dollars in the deal.” Speier adds that Boston is now “lumped in with teams in California and New York in needing to outbid clubs in more favorable tax environments (particularly Texas and Florida, where there’s no state income tax) to present offers of equal value.” Speculatively speaking, this tax may have played a role in the Red S0x’s five-year, $90MM agreement with NPB star Masataka Yoshida, who many around the league predicted would earn significantly less.

 

A players state income tax is paid to the state they reside in, not the state of the team they play on, Tennessee also has no state income tax so instead of paying California’s state tax Mookie pays non in Tennessee

[Bobe2]

We offered Betts a fair contract.

 

I think they felt they were prepared to offer or had offered a fair contract to Bogey, before being blown out of the water by the Padres. (And, we wonder why players don't want to extend.)

 

I think 2 factors may have played a role in them deciding Bogey was not "the guy" to break their long-standing guideline of setting a value and not budging much from it:

 

1) His defense has never been near elite- like Betts or even guys like Correa.

 

2) His reluctance to want to change positions to better the team.

 

I think those two factors played into them not ever meeting the price BorA$$ would have ever accepted all along the timeline of negotiations.

 

Maybe they felt nobody would overpay Bogey for the same reasons, and they misjudged the market or one crazy GM. Maybe, they really felt they could and would match anyone's offer, until the Padres one shocked the whole baseball world. I'm not even sure they have ever given Bogey $225M/8, even now, if they could. My guess is they felt $200M/8 would bring him back, in the end.

 

Call them dumb, incompetent or greedy. Maybe they are all 3. But, maybe their evaluation of what his production would be worth turns out to be right. The success rate of these mega deals is probably under 50-50.

 

If we signed Betts to a contract like he got in LA and in the first 6 years of the contract we won 3 World Series and made the playoff 80% of the time the rest of the deal even though Betts had injuries the last three years and batted .235 with 10 Hr those last years of the deal, how do you rate that contract? I say it’s a success but most just look a the end years and say he sucks and we should never have hired him

[notin]

A players state income tax is paid to the state they reside in, not the state of the team they play on, Tennessee also has no state income tax so instead of paying California’s state tax Mookie pays non in Tennessee

 

Incorrect.

 

Players have to pay income tax in EVERY STATE they play in. And pay tax on the amount earned in that state. So if they play 3 games in Kansas City and then free gables in Houston, that in income gets filed for those games in Missouri and Texas.

 

Every touring entertainer does this…

[Bellhorn04]

Incorrect.

 

Players have to pay income tax in EVERY STATE they play in. And pay tax on the amount earned in that state. So if they play 3 games in Kansas City and then free gables in Houston, that in income gets filed for those games in Missouri and Texas.

 

Every touring entertainer does this…

 

Correct.

 

The actual impact of the millionaire's tax for a Red Sox player is 2% of income above $1 million.

 

The previous rate was 5%, now it's 9%, so the increase is 4%, * half a season played in Mass.

 

So this will cost Kike Hernandez $200,000 on $10 million. That's the difference that needs to be made up.

[S5Dewey]

Character isn’t always the only other issue.

 

All I can say is that, having never been involved in MLB free agency talks, I don’t know everything that is involved. I think that applies to all of us.

 

And there are clearly always other possibilities.

 

There is something called The Circular Law of Logical Argument and it goes like this:

 

"Anything is possible when someone doesn't know what they're talking about"

[notin]

There is something called The Circular Law of Logical Argument and it goes like this:

 

"Anything is possible when someone doesn't know what they're talking about"

 

And none of us knows what goes into these negotiations.

 

I can see reasons why the Sox never wanted to extend Bogaerts, but I can’t promise they’re related or are even considerations when it came time to actually hammer out a deal. And no one else here can either. But the reason to bring up their potential existence is to remember that we don’t know the whole story…

[S5Dewey]

I don't blame Bloom for doing what they made him do...

 

I don't blame JH as much as many here do.

 

I think all owners should spend more...,

 

 

 

I have a ton of optimism over our extended future- something I have not felt since the Ben years, and to me that is the way to try and become a consistently winning team. For all the money being thrown around by the Mets, Padres, Phillies, Yanks and maybe a couple more teams, I'm, not seeing many rings. I'm seeing rings from teams that- new the value of cycling through bad times to get to great times while building, maintain and valuing a strong and deep farm and by deep, I mean from rookie ball to AAA, so the flow of helpful prospects is set up to be as close to never-ending as possible.

 

 

There's a very fine line between blaming someone and making them responsible, so if you don't blame Bloom and you don't blame Henty who do you hold responsible for the current condition of the Sox? It seems like you're falling back on the adage that if it's everyone's fault then it's nobody's fault.

 

Or is it that you think things are just ducky?

 

While I don't share your optimism for the future at the same time it needs to be remembered that for many of US (In spite of my being accused of feeling 'entitled') we don't NEED a WSC every year or even every decade as long as the teams are competitive and one of the best ways to remain competitive is by recognizing the market and playing top players what the market demands.

 

There's been some mention in past threads about whether these top players are "worth" what they're now getting. Baseball being a business and assuming that owners aren't trying to lose money one has to assume that they feel that having the elite players brings (or keeps) fans into the fold.

 

Even the much hated Yankees recognized that Judge was one of the core members of the team and was necessary for the team to remain COMPETITIVE and being competitive is what builds fan interest and puts fannies in the seats. So they swallowed hard and wrote a big check to Judge. Maybe that's a better model for the Red Sox than continually saying, "We should have handled that better" repeatedly. We'll see when we find out if attendance at Fenway continues to dwindle.

[Bellhorn04]

And none of us knows what goes into these negotiations.

 

I can see reasons why the Sox never wanted to extend Bogaerts, but I can’t promise they’re related or are even considerations when it came time to actually hammer out a deal. And no one else here can either. But the reason to bring up their potential existence is to remember that we don’t know the whole story…

 

No we don't know everything, but I think it's fair to say that the Red Sox have drawn somewhat conservative lines on far they'll go to keep any player, whether it's Betts, Bogaerts or Devers.

 

We'll see how their strategy plays out.

[S5Dewey]

And none of us knows what goes into these negotiations.

 

I can see reasons why the Sox never wanted to extend Bogaerts, but I can’t promise they’re related or are even considerations when it came time to actually hammer out a deal. And no one else here can either. But the reason to bring up their potential existence is to remember that we don’t know the whole story…

 

That's very true in a literal sense but saying that "there may be more there than we know about " borders on guilt by innuendo and is patently unfair. It raises the thought that there MAY be an UNKNOWN issue that they aren't talking about. It's how derogatory rumors get started that can destroy someone's reputation.

[Bellhorn04]

moonslav and notin are trying to be the voices of reason, and I respect that.

 

I'm just venting my spleen. I'm filled with doubt about the decisions that are being made, but Henry and Bloom are probably right on a number of them.

 

I have to admit I'm fascinated by how the front office is going to handle it if 2023 really sucks.

[Bobe2]

Incorrect.

 

Players have to pay income tax in EVERY STATE they play in. And pay tax on the amount earned in that state. So if they play 3 games in Kansas City and then free gables in Houston, that in income gets filed for those games in Missouri and Texas.

 

Every touring entertainer does this…

 

That’s correct, but the bulk of the state income tax is home state, not state of city played, but you are right

[Jasonbay44]

And over the last 2 years Verdugo has a total fWAR of 3.2, 1.6 avg., which makes him by definition a below average player.

 

It was poor value at the time, and in hindsight, it looks even worse.

[Jasonbay44]

moonslav and notin are trying to be the voices of reason, and I respect that.

 

I'm just venting my spleen. I'm filled with doubt about the decisions that are being made, but Henry and Bloom are probably right on a number of them.

 

I have to admit I'm fascinated by how the front office is going to handle it if 2023 really sucks.

 

I don’t blame you. I usually try to have a positive outlook on the season, especially before it even starts, but there isn’t much to be optimistic about right now

[S5Dewey]

I don’t blame you. I usually try to have a positive outlook on the season, especially before it even starts, but there isn’t much to be optimistic about right now

 

Yeah, what ^he^ said.

 

Regardless of the reasons this may have happened we've watched two core players and fan favorites walk to another team and from what we hear the Sox didn't make a competitive offer to either of them. Now we're looking at another core fan favorite who is "galaxies (or whatever that word was) apart" in negotiations. Why should we think this one is going to end any differently?

And furthermore, what does it say about 2024 and 2025 when the sox are demonstrating that they aren't willing to pay for their own franchise players, players who have said that they want to play in Boston?

[S5Dewey]

moonslav and notin are trying to be the voices of reason, and I respect that.

 

I'm just venting my spleen. I'm filled with doubt about the decisions that are being made, but Henry and Bloom are probably right on a number of them.

 

I have to admit I'm fascinated by how the front office is going to handle it if 2023 really sucks.

 

Well, 2022 sucked and the FO handled it by raising ticket prices and talking about starting games 10 minutes earlier in 2023.

[moonslav59]

And over the last 2 years Verdugo has a total fWAR of 3.2, 1.6 avg., which makes him by definition a below average player.

 

I guess if you don't count 2020, then losing 60 games of Betts was worth nothing.

 

We'd be WS champs had we gotten Graterol or Wil Myers.

[moonslav59]

If we signed Betts to a contract like he got in LA and in the first 6 years of the contract we won 3 World Series and made the playoff 80% of the time the rest of the deal even though Betts had injuries the last three years and batted .235 with 10 Hr those last years of the deal, how do you rate that contract? I say it’s a success but most just look a the end years and say he sucks and we should never have hired him

 

I wanted to give Betts $400M/14, so I'm not sure where you think I'm coming from.

 

On winning 3 WS, how? You think JH magically decides to spend way more had we extended Betts?

 

Had we paid Betts and kept Price, we'd sign no other FAs for 2 years and then spend maybe $20M before 2022. We'd still be saying good bye to Bogey, JD and others- with or without Bloom.