A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

It seems like there are a lot of quality free agents this year , as well as some really big names. I don't see where it is such a bad year .

 

It's good for SS, an area we need.

 

OF is not great after Judge & Nimmo.

 

SP seems to have a lot of questions attached to the top arms.

 

Diaz already signed as a closer. Rogers looks good, and there are a few other good pen arms, but nothing really great.

[Bellhorn04]

It's good for SS, an area we need.

 

OF is not great after Judge & Nimmo.

 

SP seems to have a lot of questions attached to the top arms.

 

Diaz already signed as a closer. Rogers looks good, and there are a few other good pen arms, but nothing really great.

 

Seems like a typical year to me. I really don't remember any years when the market was overflowing with slam dunk good deals...

[moonslav59]

Seems like a typical year to me. I really don't remember any years when the market was overflowing with slam dunk good deals...

 

Agreed.

 

I remember thinking when Scherzer and Price became available in back-to-back years, that was special.

 

It seems like all the very best pitchers are locked up before free agency, unless they are old or injured.

[notin]

Seems like a typical year to me. I really don't remember any years when the market was overflowing with slam dunk good deals...

 

That’s why I’m pushing Andrus and Gallo.

 

The really sneaky potential bargain (meaning he must stay healthy) is Brian Anderson…

[notin]

Agreed.

 

I remember thinking when Scherzer and Price became available in back-to-back years, that was special.

 

It seems like all the very best pitchers are locked up before free agency, unless they are old or injured.

 

Extend Bello now!!

[mvp 78]

Extend Bello now!!

 

We can't. Need to make sure we can reset in 2029.

[moonslav59]

That’s why I’m pushing Andrus and Gallo.

 

The really sneaky potential bargain (meaning he must stay healthy) is Brian Anderson…

 

How long will this bargain basement shopping go on?

 

(I don't think this is Bloom's choosing, but who knows how much of this has been or perhaps will be on him.)

[moonslav59]

I was kind of glad to see some names come off the board and go elsewhere, today... namely Heaney & Bellinger.

[notin]

How long will this bargain basement shopping go on?

 

(I don't think this is Bloom's choosing, but who knows how much of this has been or perhaps will be on him.)

 

If you have to add 7-9 players with what these guys are getting so far, I think a few bargains are vital…

[harmony]

In today's lottery the Red Sox landed the 14th pick in the June 2023 draft:

 

MLB Draft lottery results 2023

WWW.MLB.COM

---

SAN DIEGO -- Major League Baseball conducted its first Draft Lottery on Tuesday at the Winter Meetings, and the Pirates walked away with the biggest prize: the No. 1 pick in the 2023 Draft. The Nationals secured the second pick, the Tigers will select third and the Rangers fourth. The

[notin]

In today's lottery the Red Sox landed the 14th pick in the June 2023 draft:

 

MLB Draft lottery results 2023

WWW.MLB.COM

---

SAN DIEGO -- Major League Baseball conducted its first Draft Lottery on Tuesday at the Winter Meetings, and the Pirates walked away with the biggest prize: the No. 1 pick in the 2023 Draft. The Nationals secured the second pick, the Tigers will select third and the Rangers fourth. The

 

Makes sense. They were just under a .500 team…

[moonslav59]

If you have to add 7-9 players with what these guys are getting so far, I think a few bargains are vital…

 

We have enough "bargains" already. We need quality not quantity.

[moonslav59]

Makes sense. They were just under a .500 team…

 

We were the tied for 13th/14th worst record. Just about right.

[notin]

We have enough "bargains" already. We need quality not quantity.

 

Since the Red are clearly no bargains on the pitching market, the Sox might need to get them somewhere. I mean, if Andrew Heaney gets $12.5mill and Taijuan Walker gets $18mill AAV over 4, Eovaldi, Senga and Taillon are not settling for $14-15 mill per…

[moonslav59]

Since the Red are clearly no bargains on the pitching market, the Sox might need to get them somewhere. I mean, if Andrew Heaney gets $12.5mill and Taijuan Walker gets $18mill AAV over 4, Eovaldi, Senga and Taillon are not settling for $14-15 mill per…

 

We have to bite the bullet and pay someone we want what it takes to get him here. We have budget space. If it takes an overpay, so be it.

 

I'm not pissed. Hardly anybody I wanted has been signed, so there is time. The open market has certainly jolted upwards, and we have to adjust our thinking accordingly.

 

Yes, it would be nice to add 7-9 players, but we don't have to do so. We can get by with 4-6. I don't think signing 9 players is going to bring much quality or major upgrades. Even if we add 3-4 bargains and spend most on the 4-6 I think we need, I'm not sure those 3-4 will be better than the guys they replace. The top 4-6 will weed out the bubble players. The next 3-4 are players I kinds like.

 

Maybe we make a couple 2 for 1 or 3 for 1 deals to handle the issue I see happening by "adding" 8-9 players, but not many teams are looking to take on 2-3 players that are in need of 40 man status.

 

Bloom will have some juggling to do to add 9, IMO. I'm willing to wait it out, but I'm seeing some real squeezes.

 

(I don't think he meant 9 players with 2-3 being lower level prospects.)

[harmony]

A Seattle blogger mentions Alex Verdugo and Bobby Dalbec as potential Mariner trade targets:

 

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2022/12/6/23493044/mariners-trade-targets-2023-offseason-the-crows-nest-patching-the-hull

 

No thanks.

[notin]

A Seattle blogger mentions Alex Verdugo and Bobby Dalbec as potential Mariner trade targets:

 

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2022/12/6/23493044/mariners-trade-targets-2023-offseason-the-crows-nest-patching-the-hull

 

No thanks.

 

And he suggests either Penn Murfee (BTV surplus value $10.8mill) or Taylor Dollard ($5.6mill) for Dalbec ($0.8mill)…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We have to bite the bullet and pay someone we want what it takes to get him here. We have budget space. If it takes an overpay, so be it.

 

 

But Chaim, if you ever do sign any player in demand, you have to realize you're not overpaying. The GMs doing their jobs trying to build contenders for 2023 aren't exceeding market prices -- they're just establishing and complying with new market prices.

[Bellhorn04]

But Chaim, if you ever do sign any player in demand, you have to realize you're not overpaying. The GMs doing their jobs trying to build contenders for 2023 aren't exceeding market prices -- they're just establishing and complying with new market prices.

 

Is it possible that Bloom and the Sox FO completely misjudged what the market was going to be like this offseason, and that's why most of their bids are falling short?

 

An unnerving thought.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Is it possible that Bloom and the Sox FO completely misjudged what the market was going to be like this offseason, and that's why most of their bids are falling short?

 

An unnerving thought.

 

They can't be that inept -- they have degrees in classics at reputable institutes of higher learning.

 

Taillon just signed for the equivalent of Eovaldi's last contract, so assume Nate is gone, too -- because that was a Dombrowski deal.

 

And might as well forget about Senga, if another team is interested (reportedly, there are several).

 

The Red Sox have drawn their lines in the sand... which keeps spilling from the hour glass at a tortoise rate.

[moonslav59]

But Chaim, if you ever do sign any player in demand, you have to realize you're not overpaying. The GMs doing their jobs trying to build contenders for 2023 aren't exceeding market prices -- they're just establishing and complying with new market prices.

 

There are bigger "overpays" than others. The BTV sight shows some recent signings as being of plus value. Others are way under water- day one.

 

I'm not one to believe one crazy GM sets the market price for other GMs. Seager and deGrom were grossly overpaid. That doesn't mean others have to b e.

 

I get the point about needing to pay more than other GMs to get what you need. I was sure Bloom would do that. I'm feeling not so sure, now, but there are a lot of FAs left to sign.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

There are bigger "overpays" than others. The BTV sight shows some recent signings as being of plus value. Others are way under water- day one.

 

I'm not one to believe one crazy GM sets the market price for other GMs. Seager and deGrom were grossly overpaid. That doesn't mean others have to b e.

 

I get the point about needing to pay more than other GMs to get what you need. I was sure Bloom would do that. I'm feeling not so sure, now, but there are a lot of FAs left to sign.

 

The best point you made so far is the fear of Bloom promising 8 or 9 additions -- instead of 4 or 5... because we all know by now that means more "value" players instead of the most valuable players.

[moonslav59]

The best point you made so far is the fear of Bloom promising 8 or 9 additions -- instead of 4 or 5... because we all know by now that means more "value" players instead of the most valuable players.

 

I don't pretend to know more than Bloom, Sam and the top brass, but I've thought all along that Bloom's hands have been tied by the fact that he had $40M to fill 12-14 slots year one, $40M to fill 9-11 slots, year two, and $60M to fill 7-9 slots year three (2022.) I felt this year it would be $90M to fill 4-6, maybe 7 slots. This would force quality over quantity.

 

There is still time to add 2-3 high quality players, but I'm not really hearing our name liked to the top free agents or trade targets. I'm starting to lower my expectation to just one major addition- maybe 2.

[moonslav59]

Remaining Free Agents (as ranked by MLBTR):

 

I predict we get in RED

 

2. Correa (My top pick, but I seriously doubt we will be a final 3 bidder)

4. Bogey (Probably our best hope for a top 20 signing, now.)

5. Swanson (Outside chance, if we miss out on Bogey)

6. Rodon (nope)

9. Nimmo (nope)

10. Contreras (I hope not, but if we aren't going to spend anywhere else, I'd rather get him than just Adrus, Conforto, Nate and Hill)

11. Senga (possibility, but word is he has 5 & 6 year offers on the table)

13. Bassitt (not likely, especially with loss of comp pick)

15. Benintendi (I doubt it.)

17. Manaea (probably not)

21. Syndergaard (please no)

23. Eovaldi (after Bogey, maybe our second most likely, although giving up the comp pick we'll get of he signs elsewhere is like a ding against signing him.)

24. T Rogers (Could be our last gasp effort at a significant signing- along with Jansen)

25. JD Martinez (nope)

26. Vazquez (long shot)

27. Jansen (see #24)

30. Quintana (maybe a good choice due to short term)

33. Profar (nope)

37. Drury (nope)

38. Stripling

39. Chafin

40. Segura

41. Wacha (maybe?)

42. Robertson

43. Brantley

44. Conforto

47. J Turner

48. Kluber

50. Rucinski

Others: Andrus, Belt, Carpenter, Cueto, A Diaz, Fujinami, Fulmer (I'd sign him), Gallo, Greinke, Kiermaier, Kimbrel, Longoria, Lugo, Mancini, Moore, Peterson, G Sanchez, Smyly

[mvp 78]

The best point you made so far is the fear of Bloom promising 8 or 9 additions -- instead of 4 or 5... because we all know by now that means more "value" players instead of the most valuable players.

 

Uh, yup. Maybe one big signing? Maybe...

[moonslav59]

Uh, yup. Maybe one big signing? Maybe...

 

I would then become a crybaby fan, unless we make a blockbuster trade, too.

[mvp 78]

I don't pretend to know more than Bloom, Sam and the top brass, but I've thought all along that Bloom's hands have been tied by the fact that he had $40M to fill 12-14 slots year one, $40M to fill 9-11 slots, year two, and $60M to fill 7-9 slots year three (2022.) I felt this year it would be $90M to fill 4-6, maybe 7 slots. This would force quality over quantity.

 

There is still time to add 2-3 high quality players, but I'm not really hearing our name liked to the top free agents or trade targets. I'm starting to lower my expectation to just one major addition- maybe 2.

 

Call me crazy, but I thought the bullpen could be handled by just throwing some of the younger guys in there like Winckowski, Crawford, Murphy, Mata, Ward. They won't all work out, but it would be a better use of funds than going to the FA market where prices are inflated. Use the FA money to fill what your org doesn't have at the upper levels: OF, SS, DH, SP, etc.

[mvp 78]

I would then become a crybaby fan, unless we make a blockbuster trade, too.

 

Deep within the recesses of my brain, a tiny red hot little flame began to grow.

[moonslav59]

Deep within the recesses of my brain, a tiny red hot little flame began to grow.

 

Over my post or the growing realization that so few major moves looks more and more possible with each major signing and rumors of interest in marginal players?

 

I guess I had more faith in our current 40 man roster depth (or at least the top 35-37 on it) than Bloom & Co.

Edited December 7, 2022 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Call me crazy, but I thought the bullpen could be handled by just throwing some of the younger guys in there like Winckowski, Crawford, Murphy, Mata, Ward. They won't all work out, but it would be a better use of funds than going to the FA market where prices are inflated. Use the FA money to fill what your org doesn't have at the upper levels: OF, SS, DH, SP, etc.

 

That's what I was thinking, although the pen signings, other than Diaz seem like the better FA value deals.

 

I was thinking we could even skimp on DH and catcher, so we could devote more money too just SS, RF and SP.

 

I can see the reasoning in spreading the risk out, but I'd rather have seen us sign 3 players at about $30M than 9 at about $10M.