A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

It was a very confusing 2 months.

 

Even after the Beni trade, I thought we'd see Renfroe in LF and Dugo in RF. I was one of the few that wanted Kike in CF, not 2B, from day one.

[mvp 78]

Even after the Beni trade, I thought we'd see Renfroe in LF and Dugo in RF. I was one of the few that wanted Kike in CF, not 2B, from day one.

 

Yes, you were correct in foretelling Kiké's greatness in CF, though you were underselling how good he'd be, you sly dog.

[moonslav59]

Yes, you were correct in foretelling Kiké's greatness in CF, though you were underselling how good he'd be, you sly dog.

 

I did not expect him to do as well as he did in 2021 nor as poorly in 2022. I think, overall, he's done about as expected.

 

I'm hopeful 2023 will be closer to 2021 than 2022, and he can play over 140 games.

[a700hitter]

Any projected rotation that includes Paxton is not realistic imo. Paxton triggered his paltry $4 million option, imo, because he knows that he is finished. If he was healthy and his stuff was not terribly diminished, he would have held some showcases and done better than the $4 million option.

[notin]

Any projected rotation that includes Paxton is not realistic imo. Paxton triggered his paltry $4 million option, imo, because he knows that he is finished. If he was healthy and his stuff was not terribly diminished, he would have held some showcases and done better than the $4 million option.

 

Paxton and Sale are both really just partial rotation slots.

 

The Sox need pitchers that can be demoted on the rare occasion either (or both) are actually healthy. Bello is very one. But counting on, say, Mata to be the other is just getting too hopeful.

 

Most likely the Sox grab someone like Kluber and hope the injuries all line up. Really this team needs 8-10 options counting the MiLB guys like Mata, Bello and Crawford…

[a700hitter]

Paxton and Sale are both really just partial rotation slots.

 

The Sox need pitchers that can be demoted on the rare occasion either (or both) are actually healthy. Bello is very one. But counting on, say, Mata to be the other is just getting too hopeful.

 

Most likely the Sox grab someone like Kluber and hope the injuries all line up. Really this team needs 8-10 options counting the MiLB guys like Mata, Bello and Crawford…

And if they don’t stagger the timing of their injuries, we will need to pitch Plawecki.

[Bellhorn04]

Any projected rotation that includes Paxton is not realistic imo. Paxton triggered his paltry $4 million option, imo, because he knows that he is finished. If he was healthy and his stuff was not terribly diminished, he would have held some showcases and done better than the $4 million option.

 

He is Canadian, though. We're not always all about the money. :D

[Hugh2]

This is why you don't pay DeGrome or Verlander 40 million. Signifcant age and injury risk aside you need two pitchers not 1.

 

 

Give me Senga and Taillon.

 

Sale

Senga

Taillon

Bello

Pivetta

Whitlock

Paxton

 

If by some miracle all 7 are healthy push a guy to the pen and roll out with a 6 man to start the season. You still have enough money left over to sign Correa, Conforto and a reliever, net two picks and reset the cap.

[mvp 78]

Any projected rotation that includes Paxton is not realistic imo. Paxton triggered his paltry $4 million option, imo, because he knows that he is finished. If he was healthy and his stuff was not terribly diminished, he would have held some showcases and done better than the $4 million option.

 

Bullpen arm is most likely option.

[mvp 78]

Paxton and Sale are both really just partial rotation slots.

 

The Sox need pitchers that can be demoted on the rare occasion either (or both) are actually healthy. Bello is very one. But counting on, say, Mata to be the other is just getting too hopeful.

 

Most likely the Sox grab someone like Kluber and hope the injuries all line up. Really this team needs 8-10 options counting the MiLB guys like Mata, Bello and Crawford…

 

I think Mata winds up being a late inning reliever, but a very good one.

[mvp 78]

And if they don’t stagger the timing of their injuries, we will need to pitch Plawecki.

 

Connor Wong.

[mvp 78]

This is why you don't pay DeGrome or Verlander 40 million. Signifcant age and injury risk aside you need two pitchers not 1.

 

 

Give me Senga and Taillon.

 

Sale

Senga

Taillon

Bello

Pivetta

Whitlock

Paxton

 

If by some miracle all 7 are healthy push a guy to the pen and roll out with a 6 man to start the season. You still have enough money left over to sign Correa, Conforto and a reliever, net two picks and reset the cap.

 

Senga seems fine. I'm not sure on Taillon. He is very inconsistent from start to start. Is he just a more expensive version of Wacha?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This is why you don't pay DeGrome or Verlander 40 million. Signifcant age and injury risk aside you need two pitchers not 1.

 

 

Give me Senga and Taillon.

 

Sale

Senga

Taillon

Bello

Pivetta

Whitlock

Paxton

 

If by some miracle all 7 are healthy push a guy to the pen and roll out with a 6 man to start the season. You still have enough money left over to sign Correa, Conforto and a reliever, net two picks and reset the cap.

 

Give me Eovaldi. He's the only free agent starter that won't break the bank who has shown 1) he is a proven postseason winner, and 2) he not only succeeds in Boston, he likes pitching for Boston.

[Hugh2]

Senga seems fine. I'm not sure on Taillon. He is very inconsistent from start to start. Is he just a more expensive version of Wacha?

 

welcome to the 2022 pitching market. Replace Taillon with Walker or Eovaldi if you'd like.

[moonslav59]

Give me Eovaldi. He's the only free agent starter that won't break the bank who has shown 1) he is a proven postseason winner, and 2) he not only succeeds in Boston, he likes pitching for Boston.

 

As much as Nate has seemed to re-invent himself since 2018, he's still not as dependable as I'd like. He's done way better than earlier in his career but he has started 84 out of 111 possible starts after 2018. That's barely over 75%.

 

He'll turn 33 before the start of 2023.

 

I wouldn't mind seeing him back, but not for more than a year or two. It's not like other FA SP'ers are wowing me, and I still think trading for a SP'er makes the most sense, but we will likely have to roll the dice on 1 or 2 free agent SP'er. Nate is not a bigger gamble than most others.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

As much as Nate has seemed to re-invent himself since 2018, he's still not as dependable as I'd like. He's done way better than earlier in his career but he has started 84 out of 111 possible starts after 2018. That's barely over 75%.

 

He'll turn 33 before the start of 2023.

 

I wouldn't mind seeing him back, but not for more than a year or two. It's not like other FA SP'ers are wowing me, and I still think trading for a SP'er makes the most sense, but we will likely have to roll the dice on 1 or 2 free agent SP'er. Nate is not a bigger gamble than most others.

 

 

Eovaldi's not a #1 like some of the other oft-injured free agent starters who someone will pay twice as much money. I just think he's more dependable than Taillon, who just lost the first postseason game he ever pitched in (3 batters: double, single, double), and then didn't go 5 in his first start.

 

Someone sitting at home will now start typing about sample size, but I'll still take Nate's 0.97 WHIP in 43 career postseason innings... or just his 9 hits and zero walks in 12.1 IP vs NY.

 

I still want Bloom to sign Senga, re-up Wacha, and make a trade for an under-30 starter. Any team intent on rising from the ashes -- and counting on phantoms like Sale and Paxton -- needs at least six other tangible arms, plus at least three almost-ready prospects, to contribute.

[mvp 78]

welcome to the 2022 pitching market. Replace Taillon with Walker or Eovaldi if you'd like.

 

I'd take Eovaldi over Taillon and Walker. Probably Taillon over Walker.

[mvp 78]

As much as Nate has seemed to re-invent himself since 2018, he's still not as dependable as I'd like. He's done way better than earlier in his career but he has started 84 out of 111 possible starts after 2018. That's barely over 75%.

 

He'll turn 33 before the start of 2023.

 

I wouldn't mind seeing him back, but not for more than a year or two. It's not like other FA SP'ers are wowing me, and I still think trading for a SP'er makes the most sense, but we will likely have to roll the dice on 1 or 2 free agent SP'er. Nate is not a bigger gamble than most others.

 

 

Taillon will be 31. We're not talking long term deals or anything either.

[moonslav59]

Taillon will be 31. We're not talking long term deals or anything either.

 

I like Taillon and see him as a similar gamble to Nate.

 

When the Yanks traded for him, I had wished we had.

 

I'm not as high on Nate as many here, but I'm not all that high on any of this year's FA SP'ers.

 

Taillon might get 1-2 more years than Nate, if they both choose length over AAV.

[harmony]

I'd take Eovaldi over Taillon and Walker. Probably Taillon over Walker.

Compare the stats over the past two seasons for righthanders Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker and Chris Flexen:

 

JT 321.2 IP, 4.08 ERA, 100 ERA+, 4.2 fWAR

TW 316.2 IP, 3.98 ERA, 99 ERA+, 3.9 fWAR

CF 317.2 IP, 3.66 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.7 fWAR

 

The Seattle Mariners reportedly are shopping Flexen, who is two years younger than Walker and two-and-a-half years younger than Taillon. Baseball Trade Values devalued Flexen after Luis Castillo bumped Flexen from the Seattle rotation.

 

Many will point to Flexen's drop in fWAR from 3.0 in 2021 to 0.7 in 2022. However, Walker has never posted an fWAR above 2.5 and Taillon has not exceeded 2.3 fWAR since 2018.

 

Columnist Tim Britton at The Athletic projects Taillon and Walker with contracts in the four-year, $56 million range:

 

https://theathletic.com/3764820/2022/11/09/mlb-contract-projections-free-agent-pitchers/

 

Flexen is guaranteed a 2023 salary of $8 million in what MLB Trade Rumors reports is his final year of team control (despite Flexen currently sitting on two years and 107 days of MLB service).

Edited November 27, 2022 by harmony

[Hugh2]

I'd take Eovaldi over Taillon and Walker. Probably Taillon over Walker.

 

ehh, both those guys can be just as good and better at their best. Yes Nathan is proven here but these guys have 4 years on him and the Sox will net a pick. If it's their second pitcher on top of either Senga or a trade I'm ok with it.

 

Not that I hate an Eovaldi reunion, I don't.

[mvp 78]

ehh, both those guys can be just as good and better at their best. Yes Nathan is proven here but these guys have 4 years on him and the Sox will net a pick. If it's their second pitcher on top of either Senga or a trade I'm ok with it.

 

Not that I hate an Eovaldi reunion, I don't.

 

Who has 4 years on him?

 

Nate: born 2/90

Taillon: born 11/91

Walker: born 8/92

[mvp 78]

Compare the stats over the past two seasons for righthanders Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker and Chris Flexen:

 

JT 321.2 IP, 4.08 ERA, 100 ERA+, 3.2 fWAR

TW 316.2 IP, 3.98 ERA, 99 ERA+, 3.9 fWAR

CF 317.2 IP, 3.66 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.7 fWAR

 

The Seattle Mariners reportedly are shopping Flexen, who is two years younger than Walker and two-and-a-half years younger than Taillon. Baseball Trade Values devalued Flexen after Luis Castillo bumped Flexen from the Seattle rotation.

 

I'd consider taking Flexen over Eovaldi/Walker/Taillon.

[mvp 78]

Flexen is cheap money, but it would really depend on the trade. His statcast page resembles Walker.

 

I think of the group, Eovaldi has the best chance to give you a top of the rotation type season. He's also the most volatile due to injury.

[notin]

Eovaldi's not a #1 like some of the other oft-injured free agent starters who someone will pay twice as much money. I just think he's more dependable than Taillon, who just lost the first postseason game he ever pitched in (3 batters: double, single, double), and then didn't go 5 in his first start.

 

Someone sitting at home will now start typing about sample size, but I'll still take Nate's 0.97 WHIP in 43 career postseason innings... or just his 9 hits and zero walks in 12.1 IP vs NY.

 

I still want Bloom to sign Senga, re-up Wacha, and make a trade for an under-30 starter. Any team intent on rising from the ashes -- and counting on phantoms like Sale and Paxton -- needs at least six other tangible arms, plus at least three almost-ready prospects, to contribute.

 

 

I think the “under 30 starter” will be Whitlock. I’m ok with that s long as they Sox add a couple quality arms to the bullpen.

 

I’m still on Fulmer. I think Estevez would be a good get too

[mvp 78]

I think the “under 30 starter” will be Whitlock. I’m ok with that s long as they Sox add a couple quality arms to the bullpen.

 

I’m still on Fulmer. I think Estevez would be a good get too

 

Chad Green?

[mvp 78]

It's going to be a 2yr Jake McGee signing.

[Hugh2]

Who has 4 years on him?

 

Nate: born 2/90

Taillon: born 11/91

Walker: born 8/92

 

I apologize it’s 2-3 years younger, which still, assuming you’re trying to sign these guys for roughly 4 years that’s a big deal. Also Nate will net you a pick and those guys won’t cost you one.

[mvp 78]

Alex Colomé 1/3M

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports the Astros are looking for a lefty corner OF'er.

 

They almost traded Urquidy at the deadline. BTV accepts Dugo for Urquidy & Neris.

 

We'd then need 2 OF'ers not one.