A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

I hoped he might hit like he did in 2020, I admit it. I generally err on the side of optimism LOL

 

Hopeful, yes, but the guy was in serious decline before he had a brief hot streak in 2020. Expecting even .700 was a dream.

[moonslav59]

Hoy, Hoy, Hoy!

 

Happy Thanksgiving!

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/red-sox-acquire-hoy-park.html

Edited November 24, 2022 by moonslav59

[Bobe2]

Hoy, Hoy, Hoy!

 

Happy Thanksgiving!

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/red-sox-acquire-hoy-park.html

 

Why would you trade a very young promising pitcher for a guy heading out the door

[moonslav59]

Why would you trade a very young promising pitcher for a guy heading out the door

 

I'm not going to lose an ounce of sleep over a trade like this.

 

I never heard of either of these guys.

 

Stay positive..

[moonslav59]

What I find most interesting about the two additions made, today, is that it almost certainly means good bye to two more fringe roster players, as I can't see how we aren't going to add another 5-6 players, minimum. Being at 40, now, if we add 5, we cut 5, unless we pull of a two or three for one deal or two.

 

I'm not sweating the 5, but if we starta dding more than 5, it looks like some difficult choices, and I'm not sure Park & Rodriguez- are any better than our #6 or 7 on the DFA/Trade list:

 

My current list:

 

1. DHern

2. Brasier

3. Taylor (if his health still looks bleak)

4. R Hernandez

5. Ort

6. Hosmer

7. ??? (Park)???

 

Maybe we pull the plug on Downs & Duran and package them somewhere.

3.

[Hugh2]

Isn’t it amazing how people with no love for the farm and zero prospect acumen can all of a sudden find a teenager close to a decade away from the majors who got 10k playing in a different continent valuable.

[moonslav59]

Isn’t it amazing how people with no love for the farm and zero prospect acumen can all of a sudden find a teenager close to a decade away from the majors who got 10k playing in a different continent valuable.

 

I think he has 22 IP in pro ball at the lowest of low level.

[Hugh2]

I think he has 22 IP in pro ball at the lowest of low level.

 

But he’s “very promising” 10k worth of promise

[Hugh2]

Although to be fair Rafaela took 10k and Bello 28k

[Hugh2]

I think this was a case of the Sox jumping the que to make sure they got their guy on rule 5 draft day. 40th man move. Maybe they see promise in his swing and at the very least something to replace Jeter Down who I think they’re about to give up on

[moonslav59]

I think this was a case of the Sox jumping the que to make sure they got their guy on rule 5 draft day. 40th man move. Maybe they see promise in his swing and at the very least something to replace Jeter Down who I think they’re about to give up on

 

I'm not sure how adding 2 players makes it any easier to pick someone on Rule 5.

[notin]

Why would you trade a very young promising pitcher for a guy heading out the door

 

Maybe the Red Sox know more about this guy than we do and just because he had a good ERA in 22 innings of the Dominican Summer League really doesn’t mean he has a future in MLB…

[notin]

I'm not sure how adding 2 players makes it any easier to pick someone on Rule 5.

 

He’s saying the Sox would have grabbed Park with a Rule 5 pick, but instead decided to trade for him.

 

I see what they like about him, but he’sa stretch to be anything more than a utility infielder and the Sox will probably try to sneak him (or Downs) through waivers at some point…

[Bellhorn04]

Hopeful, yes, but the guy was in serious decline before he had a brief hot streak in 2020. Expecting even .700 was a dream.

 

He was actually pretty consistent from 2017-2019.

 

Anyway, you're a clear winner on this one. No need to rub it in.

[notin]

But he’s “very promising” 10k worth of promise

 

I wonder how many would think he was promising if they knew his fastball sat at 86-90mph.

 

That’s not bad for an 18yo, but it’s not crazy uncommon either…

[notin]

Hoy, Hoy, Hoy!

 

Happy Thanksgiving!

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/red-sox-acquire-hoy-park.html

 

What I find most interesting about the two additions made, today, is that it almost certainly means good bye to two more fringe roster players, as I can't see how we aren't going to add another 5-6 players, minimum. Being at 40, now, if we add 5, we cut 5, unless we pull of a two or three for one deal or two.

 

I'm not sweating the 5, but if we starta dding more than 5, it looks like some difficult choices, and I'm not sure Park & Rodriguez- are any better than our #6 or 7 on the DFA/Trade list:

 

My current list:

 

1. DHern

2. Brasier

3. Taylor (if his health still looks bleak)

4. R Hernandez

5. Ort

6. Hosmer

7. ??? (Park)???

 

Maybe we pull the plug on Downs & Duran and package them somewhere.

3.

 

 

I don’t think they will give up on Darwinzon s quickly as you think. He’s 24 and still has options left.

 

But Ort can go now…

[moonslav59]

He’s saying the Sox would have grabbed Park with a Rule 5 pick, but instead decided to trade for him.

 

I see what they like about him, but he’sa stretch to be anything more than a utility infielder and the Sox will probably try to sneak him (or Downs) through waivers at some point…

 

I did not know he was rule 5 eligible, since he was on the 40 ma roster, already.

[Hugh2]

They will release Brazier before giving up on a lefty who can throw heat. They don’t grow on trees. He’s going to be elite if he ever figures it out.

[notin]

I did not know he was rule 5 eligible, since he was on the 40 ma roster, already.

 

He had been DFAd by the Pirates a couple days ago. The Sox clearly liked him.

 

He plays lots of positions and showed excellent OBP skills in the minors, so I get it. But he’s not an impact player and no one thinks he is, including the FO..

Edited November 24, 2022 by notin
Days, not years

[moonslav59]

He was actually pretty consistent from 2017-2019.

 

Anyway, you're a clear winner on this one. No need to rub it in.

 

I'm not trying to rub it in. Most disliked the deal to some extent on day one.

 

Yes, he was rather consistent from 2017-2019, despite that word just not seeming appropriate for JBJ, but those 3 pretty even years were all major step downs from 2015-2016.

 

OPS+

119 '15

118 '16

89 '17

92 '18

89 '19

 

Now, had JBJ just given us a 90 OPS+ in '22, he'd have lasted the year, so it's not like there was no hope, at all. I had hopes, too. However, I was not all that excited about his 116 OPS+ in the short 2020 season. JBJ, as we all knew, has had several short stretches of hitting very well. I did not see that season as any sort of renewal of hopes. Obviously, the Brewers did.

 

After the horrific 2021 season and heading into his age 32 season, the "hope" was too long a shot to realistically think it would happen. I applaud the idea that our defense needed improving, but all D and no O OF'ers are a dime a dozen, and we paid dearly to get JBJ back. I'm not gloating that some of us were right about the deal "making no sense," but the only hope for that trade was always about Binelas and Hamilton.

[notin]

They will release Brazier before giving up on a lefty who can throw heat. They don’t grow on trees. He’s going to be elite if he ever figures it out.

 

They should release Brasier before hard-throwing lefties, soft-throwing righties, and December.

[moonslav59]

I don’t think they will give up on Darwinzon s quickly as you think. He’s 24 and still has options left.

 

But Ort can go now…

 

So, #2-6 go, but if we sign a 6th FA, who is #6? It has to be DHern, Downs or Duran (maybe via trade.)

[moonslav59]

They should release Brasier before hard-throwing lefties, soft-throwing righties, and December.

 

I do think the Sox will not DFA DHern, first, but I think he's about tied with Brasier.

 

You do know Braiser throws 95-97 and touches 98, often.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ryan-brasier/5615/graphs?pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2020&end=2022&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

 

I'm not defending Brasier. I think they both should go, if we add 5-6 new players. Their velo charts are pretty similar:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/darwinzon-hernandez/19848/graphs?pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2020&end=2022&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

[notin]

So, #2-6 go, but if we sign a 6th FA, who is #6? It has to be DHern, Downs or Duran (maybe via trade.)

 

Downs’ leash just got a lot shorter.

 

Ronaldo Hernandez is probably absent from this list. He’s future role is DH.

 

One has to wonder how much more Dalbec the Sox will put up with, too…

[moonslav59]

Downs’ leash just got a lot shorter.

 

Ronaldo Hernandez is probably absent from this list. He’s future role is DH.

 

One has to wonder how much more Dalbec the Sox will put up with, too…

 

If you take RHern off my DFA list, it only makes my point stronger.

 

No, I don't think Park is below Dalbec on the to be DFA'd list.

 

Maybe we pull off a trade of one or two of these guys for lower level prospects not n eeded to be on the 40 man, and Dalbec, Downs, Duran and DHern- the D-leaguers- would be near the top of that list. One might also call it the sell low list, but maybe some team wants them.

[Nick]

I do think the Sox will not DFA DHern, first, but I think he's about tied with Brasier.

 

You do know Braiser throws 95-97 and touches 98, often.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ryan-brasier/5615/graphs?pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2020&end=2022&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

 

I'm not defending Brasier. I think they both should go, if we add 5-6 new players. Their velo charts are pretty similar:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/darwinzon-hernandez/19848/graphs?pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2020&end=2022&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

 

Touching 98 is much different than having a heater. He does not have a heater. Never seen it. Him getting out of a jam is pure luck.

[Bellhorn04]

FanGraphs says Brasier was unlucky in 2022. He had a FIP of 3.61, a K/BB of 4.92 and an fWAR of 0.5.

 

That's why he's still around.

[moonslav59]

Touching 98 is much different than having a heater. He does not have a heater. Never seen it. Him getting out of a jam is pure luck.

 

But, he throws as hard as DHern, That was the point I was responding to.

 

Again, I'm not defending Brasier. I think he'll be DFA'd, at some point this winter, but he's not some junk ball pitcher.

[moonslav59]

FanGraphs says Brasier was unlucky in 2022. He had a FIP of 3.61, a K/BB of 4.92 and an fWAR of 0.5.

 

That's why he's still around.

 

His xFIP of 3.49 was even better than his 2018 3.79 xFIP.

 

His .793 OPS Against was nothing to brag about, but it was better than Crawford and Bello's in 2022.

 

I'd say Ort, Brasier and DHern are all in the same rocking boat. Taylor may be, as well, if he's not over his injury.

[moonslav59]

There are only 6 players on the 40 man roster who were on the 40 man at the end of the 2019 season. Others were in the system but not on the 40.

 

Those 6 are (in order of 40 man seniority)

 

Barnes (added 9/14)

Sale (added 12/16)

Devers (added 7/17)

Brasier (added 7/18)

Taylor (added 11/18)

DHern (added 11/18)

 

Dalbec was added 11/19, but the other 33 were added after Feb, 2020 (Verdugo).

 

This is fast becoming Bloom's team, although many of the younger players were in the system, when he arrived.